Can anyone stop Djokovic, Nadal or Murray lifting the ATP Australian Open trophy?

Can anyone stop Djokovic, Nadal or Murray lifting the ATP Australian Open trophy?

By Dan Weston Dec 27, 2013

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The tennis season is in full swing and the first of the four Grand Slam events, the Australian Open, begins on the 13th January. With two of Djokovic, Nadal or Murray competing in each of the last three Australian Open finals, do the odds suggest anyone can stop them this year?

Last year in Melbourne, the men’s event featured 79.1% service holds, which was slightly above the 78.3% ATP hard court average.  Historically the courts have played slightly slowly, with only 76.8% service holds from 2011-2013.  Looking at these stats it’s reasonable to assume that conditions are playing close to average, and cannot feature heavily in analysing a player’s chances of success.

For those that are new to tennis betting, it’s worth pointing out that Grand Slam matches are played over the best of five sets, with the finalists needing to play seven matches in a fortnight. The consequence of this is that fitness is an even more crucial facet of success for players in Grand Slam events, and getting through the early matches without playing long, five set matches is critical.

The financial and ranking point incentives of Grand Slams dictate that favourites tend to dominate more than a regular ATP event and it’s worth noting that 26 of the 30 finalists in the past ten years have come from the top five seeds.  Only three non-seeds have made the final in the past 10 years, and all were illustrious players – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Marcos Baghdatis and Marat Safin.  All other finalists have come from the top five seeds apart from Fernando Gonzalez (10th seed) in 2007.

Djokovic, Nadal & Murray: The main contenders

There can be no doubt that the man to beat in the tournament is Novak Djokovic.  The Serb – currently valued at 2.200* – has won the tournament every year since 2011 and was clearly the form player at the end of the 2013 season, winning his last 24 matches of the campaign in a run spanning back to early September.  His record overall in the Australian Open is highly impressive, winning 39 of his 44 career main draw matches.  It’s also worth mentioning that Djokovic has hired Boris Becker as his new coach during the off-season – Becker’s first coaching role.

Rafael Nadal did not participate in 2013 due to his recovery from knee surgery, but was the last player to beat Djokovic – doing so in the final of the US Open (the other Grand Slam played on hard court).  The Spanish world number one is currently available at 3.310* but seemed to be a level below the imperious Djokovic towards the end of 2013, with losses to Djokovic (twice), Juan Martin Del Potro and David Ferrer.

Whilst injury has forced his ranking to drop to number four, there can be no doubt that Andy Murray (2011 and 2013 runner-up) completes the elite trio at the forefront of the men’s game.

Murray, who is third favourite at 9.000*, missed the end of the season, not competing since the Davis Cup clash with Croatia in early September, as he underwent back surgery.  With little quantifiable information available on top players immediate success after returning from serious surgery (especially with a Grand Slam very soon after their comeback), it’s very difficult to assess Murray’s chances.  How he reacts to the gruelling nature of Grand Slams, so soon after major surgery will ultimately determine whether or not he can win.

These three players have competed every final between them since 2011 and based on the hard court serve and return stats below, it’s difficult to see a different outcome in 2014.

2013 ATP service and break statistics

Player

Rank

2013 Service Hold %

2013 Break Opponent %

Combined %

Nadal

1

90.3

31.7

122

Djokovic

2

88.9

35.6

124.5

Ferrer

3

77.3

33.2

110.5

Murray

4

84.3

33.2

117.5

Del Potro

5

85.5

25.8

111.3

Federer

6

88.3

24.9

113.2

Berdych

7

85.1

30.5

115.6

Wawrinka

8

85.5

21.7

107.2

Gasquet

9

82.7

24.8

107.5

Tsonga

10

86.3

23.4

109.7

Can anyone upset the main contenders?

The above stats illustrate that there is a second tier of players, with David Ferrer priced at 86.000*, Juan Martin Del Potro 15.000*, Roger Federer 21.000*, Tomas Berdych 109.340* and arguably Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 99.370* in that bracket.

Del Potro is the shortest priced contender away from the top three and is considered amongst some to be close to the elite.  Certainly, on his best form, he can upset the top players, but the five set format of Grand Slams does not do him any favours.  As we can see above, he only broke opponents 25.8% on hard court in 2013 and this is almost 10% below Djokovic, and around 6-8% behind Nadal, Murray & Ferrer.

Roger Federer last won this event in 2010 but the Swiss legend – currently ranked at number six in the world – isn’t quite the player he once was.  He’s lost his last seven matches to Djokovic (three) & Nadal (four) combined with his last victory against either player coming in the final of Cincinnati in August 2012.

These five players form the basis of the ‘best of the rest’ market of players under or around 100/1, with only Stanislas Wawrinka 52.490* also considered a realistic contender by the market.

‘Long-shots’ at long prices

Milos Raonic, Jerzy Janowicz, John Isner and Ernests Gulbis are several other players worth discussing as very long-shots.

Raonic currently available at 109.430* , Janowicz 138.620* and Isner 217.490* are all ‘big servers’ with relatively limited return games.

Raonic impressed in the latter stages of the 2013 season and has been tipped by many to break into the top ten in 2014.  His hard court 2013 stats of 91.1% service holds and 15.8% opponent breaks give him a combined percentage of 106.9 – showing that he has no better surface stats than any of the current top ten.

Janowicz had a losing 5-7 record on hard courts in 2013 so has a lot to prove, whilst John Isner’s very mediocre return game (12.2% opponent breaks on hard court in 2013) means that his matches tend to be very long.  The impact of this accumulated fatigue is that he gets tired earlier in the event and could be the reason why he has a mediocre record in Grand Slams.

Finally, there can be little doubt that Gulbis 217.490* has the talent to get to the latter stages of big tournaments, but the enigmatic Latvian’s erratic mentality means that it’s difficult for him to perform consistently at a high level for a fortnight.  However, with an 11-4 record on hard court in 2013, and with better serve/break stats than some of the top ten (83.6% holds and 27.8% opponent breaks on the surface), the top players would be very wise not to underestimate him.

It’s worth stressing that betting in Grand Slams is a very different proposition to the normal 3 set ATP matches.  It’s vital that bettors do their research and make the necessary adjustments if they are to profit in Grand Slam events.

Click here to see the latest ATP Australian Open odds

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer and his work can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk

*Odds subject to change

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