What do past championship rematches tell us about Johnson vs. Benavidez II?

What do past championship rematches tell us about Johnson vs. Benavidez II?

By Gary Wise Dec 9, 2013

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At UFC on Fox 9, Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson defends his UFC Flyweight title for the third time when he faces Joe Benavidez, the man he beat for the title on December 14th. To know what to expect from the fight, we’ve looked at data from their first match-up as well as past UFC title rematches.

The first fight

The first time Johnson 1.806* and Benavidez 2.120* squared off was to determine the first champion of the newly-formed flyweight (125 lb) division. It’s the lightest division the UFC has featured and both fighters had previously fought at 135 lbs in order to work with the sport’s biggest promoter. The fight went the distance, with Johnson winning by split decision, 48-47, 47-48, 49-46.

Looking at the numbers, it’s a wonder that Benavidez finished ahead on judge Richard Bertrand’s scorecard. Johnson landed more significant strikes at a higher percentage in each of the five rounds, landing 77 of 156 thrown, compared to Benavidez landing just 44 of 250. It wasn’t just a data-driven victory; Johnson passed the eye test with flying colours, proving too fast for Benavidez to hit.

As if striking weren’t enough, Johnson dominated on the ground also. 10 times, Johnson went for takedowns, successfully landing five of them, while Benavidez failed to score a single takedown in 7 attempts. Benavidez also failed to successfully submit Johnson in four attempts.

Ultimately, Johnson’s approach may not have impressed Judge Bertrand, but there was a no-doubt massive majority understanding amongst seasoned observers that the new champion had earned his crown. That Benavidez already has another shot at the title 15 months later is more a testament to the lack of depth in the division than the caliber of their first match.

Past Championship Rematches

Not surprisingly, the sample size for championship rematches is a small one, with most titles contested only 2-3 times per year. We’ve collected them here for your perusal:

F1 Champion

Fight 1 Challenger

Fight 1 Winner

Fight 2 Winner

Weight Class

Randy Couture

Pedro Rizzo

Couture

Couture

HW

Andrei Arlovski*

Tim Silvia*

Arlovksi

Silvia

HW

Cain Velasquez

Junior Dos Santos

Dos Santos

Velasquez

HW

Randy Couture*

Chuck Lidell*

Couture

Lidell

LHW

Rich Franklin

Anderson Silva

Silva

Silva

MW

Carlos Newton

Matt Hughes

Hughes

Hughes

WW

Matt Hughes

Georges St. Pierre

Hughes

GSP

WW

Georges St. Pierre

BJ Penn

GSP

GSP

WW

BJ Penn

Frankie Edgar

Edgar

Edgar

LW

Frankie Edgar

Gray Maynard

Draw

Edgar

LW

Frankie Edgar

Ben Henderson

Henderson

Henderson

LW

* The first fights in these series either filled title vacancies or established a division’s first winner.

While neither champions nor initial meeting-victors show a pronounced advantage, we see a lot more consistency at lighter weights. In the six rematches at welterweight (170 lbs) or lighter, there was just one reversal of fortune; St. Pierre’s win over Hughes, the ascendance of perhaps the greatest fighter of all time (who was admittedly fighting severe nerves in their first match). With respect to Benavidez, it’s safe to say at 29-years old that he’s not of St. Pierre’s caliber.

One could argue that consistency in the lighter weights is due to a small sample size, but it’s also possible that the lesser impact of those lighter strikes means style determines the outcome in matches that are likely to go the distance. Of the six lightweight fights listed, only one didn’t go to a decision. This bodes well for Johnson, if Benavidez can’t finish him.

Can Benavidez finish Johnson? He’ll have to change his game plan to do so. Three of Benavidez’s last four wins have been by knockout, which seems the more likely path to victory than submission thanks to Johnson’s wrestling skills and established submission-defense. Johnson’s striking defense, as the earlier mentioned eye test alluded to, is tough to penetrate. Whether you think Benavidez can get to a man who is very, very good at staying away will likely be the question whose answer determines how you should bet on this fight.

Click here to see the latest Johnson-Benavidez II UFC On Fox 9 odds.

*Odds subject to change

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