Examining historic handicap data for Man United vs. Arsenal

Examining historic handicap data for Man United vs. Arsenal

By Michael Gales Nov 7, 2013

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Arsenal have won just three times in the EPL under Arsene Wenger at Old Trafford. However, this season Arsenal have covered 80% on the road, while United have failed to cover at home. So what is more relevant for handicap betting, recent form or historic head-to-head trends? Read on to find out.

Are United under-performing and therefore overvalued?

After three consecutive Premier League victories, Manchester United 2.300* are finally displaying the kind of form that saw them win the EPL by 11-points last season.

Nevertheless, David Moyes has struggled since taking on the unenviable task of replacing Sir Alex Ferguson as manager. Three defeats and two draws from their ten EPL games this season has left United languishing in eighth place and eight points behind leaders Arsenal.

Man Utd have failed to cover the spread at Old Trafford this season

United’s poor start to the season is also reflected in their form against the handicap highlighted in the Pinnacle Sports’ EPL handicap table. The Reds have the second worst record at covering the spread this season, having covered in just 20% of games including the remarkable statistic that the Red Devils have failed to cover at Old Trafford at all this season- compared to covering 37.5% of games at home last season, winning 75% of the time.

So are bookmakers underestimating the impact Ferguson had on United, are they overvaluing their squad strength based on last season or are United simply under-performing under Moyes? United’s handicap for the game is set at 0 and -0.5 (1.990*).

Arsenal have covered 80% of EPL games on the road

In contrast to United, Arsenal 3.330* have made a storming start to the season, which continued with wins at home against Liverpool on November 2nd and on the road against Dortmund in midweek (Nov 6th). The Gunners are five-points clear at the top of the Premier League, top of their Champions league group and top of Pinnacle Sports’ handicap table.

Arsene Wenger’s team has covered in 80% of EPL games this season, 20% more than anyone else – failing to cover just twice.

On the road the Gunners are unbeaten in 14 games in all competitions, winning an incredible 85% of games since they last tasted defeat at rivals Tottenham back in March.

Compared to last season, away from the Emirates, Arsenal have covered the spread 80% of the time – 30% more.

This highlights that Arsenal have continued to over perform against the handicap this season, however the game at Old Trafford is Arsenal’s first real test away from home this season in the EPL, and they have a poor long term record at Old Trafford.

Manchester United vs. Arsenal:  Head-to-head at Old Trafford

Man Utd vs Arsenal: Against the spread at Old Trafford

Date

Covering Team

Handicap

Result

04/13/2008

Man Utd

-0.5

2-1

05/16/2009

Arsenal

-1

0-0

08/29/2009

Man Utd

-0.25

2-1

12/13/2010

Man Utd

0

1-0

08/28/2011

Man Utd

-1.25

8-2

11/03/2012

Man Utd

-0.75

2-1

Since Wenger took charge of Arsenal in October 1996 he has won just three of 17 Premier League games at Old Trafford.

Against the handicap Arsenal have covered only once in six years, and haven’t won at Old Trafford since 2006.

With the handicap for Arsenal set at 0 & +0.5 (1.952*) bettors must decide if in the context of their recent excellent handicap form but poor history at the Theatre of Dreams, whether the Gunners are over or undervalued? Perhaps the bookmakers are unsure of both teams’ reflective abilities and erring on the side of caution? Either way it offers an opportunity for savvy bettors to make a profit.

Click here to see the best Manchester United vs. Arsenal odds.

*Odds subject to change

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