Which La Liga teams are profitable on the handicap?

Which La Liga teams are profitable on the handicap?

By Michael Gales Dec 27, 2013

Tweet

With the 2013/14 La Liga teams now on their winter break until January 5th, Pinnacle Sports has gathered this seasons handicap data for bettors to study. Despite being third, Real Madrid have been abysmal against the spread, while Malaga are proving profitable.

The story so far: 2013/14 La Liga handicap table before winter break

The La Liga handicap table below shows how well the Spanish teams have performed against expectations up until the winter break. Instead of looking at the win-loss-draw performance of each team, the table highlights the teams that have exceeded expectation or under-performed – a vital tool for La Liga soccer betting.

2013/14 La Liga Handicap table

Team

Handicap Position

La Liga Position

Difference

Cover %

Home Cover %

Away Cover %

Malaga

1

10

+9

70.6%

62.5%

77.8%

Levante

2

13

+11

64.7%

62.5%

66.7%

Atletico Madrid

3

2

-1

64.7%

66.7%

62.5%

Villarreal

4

6

+2

58.8%

55.6%

62.5%

Athletic Bilbao

5

4

-1

58.8%

66.7%

50.0%

Granada

6

12

+6

52.9%

33.3%

75.0%

Elche

7

14

+7

52.9%

44.4%

62.5%

Osasuna

8

18

+10

52.9%

50.0%

55.6%

Espanyol

9

9

0

47.1%

44.4%

50.0%

Barcelona

10

1

-9

47.1%

50.0%

44.4%

Real Sociedad

11

5

-6

47.1%

62.5%

33.3%

Seville

12

7

-5

41.2%

25.0%

55.6%

Rayo Vallecano

13

19

+6

41.2%

37.5%

44.4%

Getafe

14

8

-6

41.2%

44.4%

37.5%

Almeria

15

16

+1

35.3%

12.5%

55.6%

Real Valladolid

16

17

+1

35.3%

25.0%

44.4%

Celta Vigo

17

15

-2

29.4%

11.1%

50.0%

Valencia

18

11

-7

29.4%

22.2%

37.5%

Real Madrid

19

3

-16

29.4%

50.0%

11.1%

Real Betis

20

20

0

23.5%

22.2%

25.0%

Real Madrid & Barcelona

Apart from El Clasico matches there is little value to be had betting on either Barcelona or Real Madrid on the weekly 12 markets. Instead bettors look towards the handicap markets. Barcelona and Real Madrid may be first and third respectively, but on Pinnacle Sports’ La Liga handicap table they rank 10th and 19th respectively.

The Catalan giants have covered the spread in 47.1% – covering in eight of their 17 games – of La Liga games this season, which suggests the bookmakers have a good grasp of their overall strength. At the Nou Camp they have covered in 50% of games, while their away record has seen them fail to cover the handicap in 55.6% of games.

Real Madrid’s handicap data is much more interesting for bettors as they have the second worst record against the spread this season. In their 17 La Liga games to date, the Galacticos have covered just 29.4% of the time – five times.

A closer look at the table shows that despite covering in 50% of games at the Bernabeu, they have under-performed on the road, covering in just one game against Almeria (11.1% of games) – the worst in La Liga. Despite winning six, losing one and drawing two of these games, savvy bettors would have noticed an opportunity to make a profit on Madrid being overvalued.

Malaga exceeding expectations

With a host of changes at Malaga during the summer, which saw star players Isco, Joaqun and Jrmy Toulalan sold in an attempt to settle huge debts, and Bernd Schuster take over as manager from Manuel Pellegrini, many expected the club to struggle after successive top six finishes.

With such upheaval bookmakers have struggled to judge the relative strength of Los Boquerones resulting in an opportunity for informed bettors to make a profit.

Despite sitting 10th in La Liga – five points above the relegation zone – Malaga are top of the Pinnacle Sports’ handicap table after covering in an impressive 70.6% of games this season. What this highlights is that bookmakers have underestimated Malaga’s strength – influenced by the big changes – considerably so far this season, especially on the road where they have covered in seven of their nine games, despite winning just one.

Bettors should keep a close eye on Malaga’s handicap values in the future with the goal of recognising when they are overvalued – as a direct result of being undervalued – first, therefore creating an opportunity to win.

Value to be had on overvalued home teams

It is no secret that football teams over the course of a season will more often than not perform better at home than on the road. This creates an opening for bettors to find value backing against certain teams at home on the handicap.

Celta Vigo for instance have covered in just one (11.7%) of their nine La Liga games at home compared to 50% on the road, which highlights a clear overvaluation at home.

Despite sitting seventh in the table and playing just two teams above them, Seville’s record at home against the handicap is disappointing – covering in 25% of games. Their home handicap record is far worse than when they play away (55.6%), which shows that they haven’t performed as expected at the Sanchez Pizjuan this season.

However a closer look shows that they have played half of these games directly after playing in the Europa League. Are these escapades across Europe affecting them more than their handicap value suggests? Which could explain their poor handicap performances at home this season?

Want to understand more about soccer handicap betting? Click here to learn the basics.

See the latest La Liga handicap betting odds now.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.