воскресенье, 1 декабря 2013 г.

How understanding each Ashes ground could help you pick a winner

How understanding each Ashes ground could help you pick a winner

By Michael Gales Nov 20, 2013

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Each of Australia’s five Test grounds for the upcoming Ashes series have distinct characteristics. This article highlights how Australia and England must adapt for the individual Tests, and assesses their historical performances at each ground.

Gabba: Australia’s Fortress (1st Test: 21 – 25 November)

Australia and England’s records at the 5 Ashes Test grounds

Venue

Australia Record

Win%

England Record

Win%

Gabba

W-33 L-8 D-13

60%

W-4 L-10 D-5

21%

Adelaide Oval

W-35 L-17 D-16

49%

W-9 L-16 D-5

30%

The Waca

W-23 L-10 D-7

57%

W-1 L-8 D-3

8%

MCG

W-60 L-30 D-15

57%

W-20 L-27 D-7

37%

Sydney CG

W-56 L-28 D-17

55%

W-22 L-25 D-7

40%

Of the five Test grounds used for this Ashes Series, the Gabba in Brisbane is Australia’s fortress.  It is no coincidence that the Aussies have chosen to start here; with a win record of 60% they have won 33 Test matches, losing just eight and are undefeated here since 1988.

England have won four Tests at the Gabba, but two of them were before the Second World War, with the last victory coming under Mike Gatting in 1986. England recovered from being bowled out for 260 last time to draw the match after posting a record 517-1 as Alistair Cook scored an unbeaten 235*.

There are numerous reasons why the Gabba is such a difficult venue for England, the most obvious being the brutally hot climate, which impacts the wicket.

The pitch traditionally has plenty of pace and bounce, which suits the tall fast bowlers. However, local knowledge is vital as the pace and bounce can seduce bowlers and therefore subconsciously making them bowl too short.

Australia have been brash about attacking England’s spinner Graeme Swann to nullify his threat so don’t expect any pitch to spin aggressively. Historically, spin tends to play less of a role at the Gabba, although Shane Warne has taken the most wickets here, while Australian off-spinner Nathan Lyon has a commendable record thanks mainly due to the bounce rather than any turn.

If England can hold on for a draw at the Gabba they will be on their way to retaining the Ashes, win and the Aussies could be deflated from the psychological blow of defeat at their biggest fortress.

Adelaide Oval: The Baggy Green’s weak spot (2nd Test: 5 – 9 December)

If the Gabba is the Aussies fortress, the Adelaide Oval is their weak spot.  With a 49% win percentage, this is their worst performing ground from the five Test venues.

England won last time out and the ground has historically been noted for excellent batting conditions, some spin later in the game and reverse swing, so pace bowlers have tended to attack the stumps.

Historical form can be ignored however, as for the first time, it will have a drop-in pitch. Nobody is sure what it will play like. Only one game has been played here since and batsman dominated. With that said, Australian media have been worried that it may turn and therefore giving England and Swann the advantage.

The Waca: England’s bogey ground  (3rd Test: 13 – 17 December)

Nowhere in Australia has been more difficult for England to win at than the Waca. England have recorded just one win (8%) at the Waca and have lost six successive test matches.

England have won just once at the Waca and have lost 6 successive test matches

Renowned historically for its pace and bounce the English batsman have struggled and have passed 200 runs in just five of their last 12 innings and never amassed more than 350. Last time they were blown away for 187 and 123 by a Mitchell Johnson and Ryan Harris combination.

Despite losing some of its pace the batsman will still face the ball whizzing around their heads. The Australians will be used to the pitch, while opposition teams can fall in to the trap of bowling too short at times when they see the ball fly through.

Batsman with good concentration and patience can prosper. The first 30 balls are the most difficult for a batsman; get in and there aren’t many better places to bat as the pace is even and the outfield rapid.

Pundits often talk about the sea breeze at Perth, but most of the time it’s the easterly breeze that helps the ball swing.

MCG: Boxing Day madness (4th Test: 26 – 30 December)

You should note that it could be all over at this point. The Boxing Day game is one of the great Australian traditions.  The conditions however suit the England players more than the previous ground, which is why they have a 37% win record at the MCG.

Last time out England relied on knowledge from bowling coach David Saker who persuaded Andrew Strauss to change his mind about batting first: Australia were bowled out for 98 before lunch and by the close, England were 158 without loss.

Saker had knowledge of how the MCG’s drop-in pitches played, thanks to his time with Victoria and his insight could be crucial again.

The drop-in wicket is generally flat, with little pace, bounce or spin. Day one with the new ball is considered the most dangerous time to bowl, so winning the toss could be vital.

SCG: England’s favourite (5th Test: 2 – 6 January)

England have performed well historically In the final Test match of the Ashes at the SCG in Sydney. The pitches are friendlier for England’s batsmen, and have sometimes turned for their spinners. They have also settled into the tour by the time they reach Sydney, which is highlighted by their 40% win ratio.

Traditionally the SCG has favoured the spinners more than any other pitch. However, Warne took more wickets at Brisbane and Graeme Swann managed only two of 20 Australian wickets last time. The evidence points towards a pitch that is holding together better than it did in the past, which is why fast bowlers have dominated the two subsequent Tests, against India and Sri Lanka. Historically teams have fielded two spinners, but expect them to choose just one.

Each Australian ground has a unique characteristic, which is why it’s difficult for touring teams to adjust to the conditions. By choosing to play at Perth and Brisbane – England’s worst performing grounds – inside the first three Tests, it would appear the Aussies have given themselves the best chance of starting well in the forthcoming series. Of course historical venue records must be considered along side the form and strength of the current sides, as well as the context of England’s recent dominance of the Ashes, as they look for a fourth straight win.

By understanding the characteristics of each pitch, how they have performed in the past and both teams’ historic records, bettors along with their own research, should be well informed ahead of betting on the Ashes.

Click here for the latest Ashes odds.

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