Will England qualify in tough Group D?

Will England qualify in tough Group D?

By Michael Gales Dec 23, 2013

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The 2014 World Cup odds to qualify from Group D are extremely close with Italy slightly favoured over Uruguay and England. How will England play without expectation, will Italy cope with the heat and could travel affect Uruguay?

England: Could they prosper without the pressure of expectation?

Fifa Ranking: 13th

Best Finish: Winners (1966)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,972^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 25.000*

England dropped outside of the top seven (13th) in the world and subsequently missed the chance to be seeded for the World Cup, which resulted in them being drawn in a tough Group D alongside Uruguay, Italy and Costa Rica.

Such is the quality of opposition in Group D England are the 1.769* third-favourites to qualify, which suggests the bookmakers are not completely comfortable on who will secure the top two places.

The Three Lions qualified top of their group, finishing unbeaten and conceding just four goals. On paper England’s campaign looked impressive – conceding just 0.4 goals per match and scoring 3.1 – but in reality their group consisted of relatively poor opposition.

A sign of the level England that are at was made apparent in back-to-back friendly defeats at Wembley, first to Chile and then Germany. For once optimism isn’t high amongst fans and the media alike. Could this give the players the freedom to perform without the huge expectation they feel at every major tournament?

If England are to be successful in Brazil, striker Wayne Rooney must perform better than his two previous World Cups. Despite playing in South Africa & Germany, Rooney has failed to score on the biggest stage of all. However seven goals in just six qualifiers has given him a fantastic platform to build on in Brazil.

Is the tough group actually a bonus? Given the pressure and expectation that has been lifted, if they do progress, the confidence they would gain would make them a difficult team to play. Then again the expectation would more than likely return.

England’s record against Group D opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Italy

8

9

7

33%

Uruguay

1

1

1

33%

Costa Rica

0

0

0

0%

Italy: Favourites to qualify, but only just

Fifa Ranking: 7th

Best Finish: Winners (1934, 1938, 1982 & 2006)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,920^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 25.000*

Italy are the 1.400* Group D favourites to qualify out of the group. They are the second most successful nation at the World Cup but that stands for little as they have won just once – 2006 – in the modern era and were eliminated as defending champions without a point in 2010. (Click here to see if historical performance is useful for predicting World Cup winners.)

They qualified with two matches to spare, along with the Netherlands, becoming the first European nation to book their place in Brazil. Despite a successful campaign, manager Cesare Prandelli, experimented in the final two games which the Azzurri drew, dropping crucial ranking points, ultimately dashing their hopes of being seeded – which could prove decisive given that they are in a tough group.

Prandelli will be hoping to get the best out of the enigma that is Mario Balotelli as he did in Euro 2012, scoring three goals and helping them on their way to the final. The Milan forward has scored 12 goals in 29 appearances – and they have never lost when he has found the net.

Italy will suffer the highest average temperatures of any team in the World Cup with an average of 86F. The fact they finished third in the 2013 Confederations Cup in Brazil could prove to be a trump card in dealing with the heat.

Another bonus is their style of play which is possession-based with a patient approach – when they have the ball the opposition will be getting tired trying to win it back. One issue the Azzurri may have is how Andrea Pirlo – who will be 35 – will perform in the energy sapping heat? With Pirlo fundamental to their ball retention, if he is off his game, how much of an impact could that have?

Italy’s record against Group D opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

England

9

8

7

37.5%

Uruguay

2

3

4

22%

Costa Rica

0

0

0

0%

Uruguay: Great attacking threat, but defensive frailties could be fatal

Fifa Ranking: 6th

Best Finish: Winners (1930 & 1950)

Overall Miles to travel: 2,886^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 25.000*

Uruguay are the seeded team in Group D but are the 1.541* 2nd favourites to progress to the knockout stages.

Qualifying didn’t go smoothly as they finished fifth in the South American table and had to beat Jordan in a playoff game to qualify. Their main problem was in defence conceding the same number as they scored (25). The stats don’t read pretty either having conceded 1.39 goals per game (2nd highest) 33% of goals from set-pieces (3rd highest) and 20% of goals inside the first 15 minutes. Is this a sign that experienced centre-back pairing Diego Godin and captain Diego Lugano careers are in decline?

On the other end of the spectrum they have a fantastic trio of forwards in Edinson Cavani, Luis Suarez and Diego Forlan – so scoring goals shouldn’t be a problem. Cavani will lead the line, with Suarez given licence to roam.

Travel could become an issue for La Celeste as they will travel a combined total of 2,886 miles during their three Group D matches – third highest at the World Cup and much more than their Group D opponents. Bettors must consider how this will affect an ageing team, who have struggled away from home in the past year?

Before betting on Uruguay bettors need to consider if Uruguay’s defensive woes and laborious travel schedule will outweigh their attacking threat? Answering this conundrum should give you a better insight whether or not you will back them to qualify for the knockout stages.

Uruguay’s record against Group D opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

England

1

1

1

33%

Italy

3

2

4

33%

Costa Rica

5

0

2

71%

Costa Rica: Tough, resilient, organized… but big outsiders to qualify

Fifa Ranking: 31st

Best Finish: Last 16 (1990)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,411^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: N/A

Odds of 8.220* suggest Costa Rica will be the Group D whipping boys, however they are defensively solid and have moved from 64th in the world to 31st – second most improved at the World Cup.

During qualifying Los Ticos finished runners-up in the final group stage after winning their five home games and conceding just seven goals in the final phase – fewer than any other team. Their defensive solidarity is a hindrance to their attacking play however, which is notable given they failed to score in 31% of their qualifying matches.

If they are to impose themselves in an attacking sense they will need key contributions from Fulham’s Bryan Ruiz and young starlet Joel Campbell.

Another key component to the Costa Rican cog is Goalkeeper Keylor Navas. The Keeper kept seven clean sheets in 14 qualifying matches and will need to be on top form if they are to progress.

Historically they qualified for the last 16 in their first appearance in a World Cup but group exits have followed in 2002 and 2006. Baring a brilliant performance and a large chunk of luck a group exit looks likely for a third successive time.

Costa Rica’s record against Group D opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

England

0

0

0

0%

Italy

0

0

0

0%

Costa Rica

0

0

0

0%

^ This is the overall number of miles each nation will travel during the group stages from their selected base camp.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup futures odds.

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*Odds subject to change

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