вторник, 31 декабря 2013 г.

Which Serie A teams are exceeding expectations on the handicap?

Which Serie A teams are exceeding expectations on the handicap?

By Michael Gales Dec 31, 2013

Tweet

With the 2013/14 Serie A season now on its annual winter break until January 5th, Pinnacle Sports has gathered this seasons handicap data for bettors to analyse. Juventus may have won 15 of their 17 Serie A games, but have covered the handicap just 29.4%.

The story so far: 2013/14 La Liga handicap table before winter break

The Serie A handicap table below shows how well the Italian teams have performed against expectations so far this season. Instead of looking at the win-loss-draw performance of each team, the table highlights the teams that have exceeded expectation or under-performed – a vital tool for Serie A soccer betting.

2013/14 Serie A Handicap table

Team

Handicap Position

Serie A Position

Difference

Cover %

Home Cover %

Away Cover %

Napoli

1

3

+2

70.6%

77.8%

62.5%

Udinese

2

11

+9

70.6%

100%

44%

Parma

3

8

+5

64.7%

77.8%

50.0%

Lazio

4

10

+6

58.8%

100%

22.2%

Bologna

5

17

+12

52.9%

66.7%

37.5%

Genoa

6

9

+3

52.9%

62.5%

44.4%

Verona

7

6

-1

52.9%

55.6%

50.0%

Sassuolo

8

18

+10

52.9%

50.0%

55.6%

Roma

9

2

-7

47.1%

22.2%

75%

Catania

10

20

+10

47.1%

75.0%

22.2%

Sampdoria

11

14

+3

47.1%

11.1%

87.5%

Torino

12

7

-5

47.1%

66.7%

25.0%

Atalanta

13

15

+2

41.2%

62.5%

22.2%

Chievo

14

16

+2

41.2%

25.0%

55.6%

Fiorentina

15

4

-11

41.2%

25.0%

55.6%

Inter

16

5

-11

41.2%

44.4%

37.5%

Livorno

17

19

+2

41.2%

44.4%

37.5%

Juventus

18

1

-17

29.4%

12.5%

44.4%

Cagliari

19

12

-7

23.5%

11.1%

37.5%

AC Milan

20

13

-7

17.6%

25.0%

11.1%

Napoli & Udinese: Both performing far above bookmaker expectations

Napoli and Udinese have covered 70.6% of their games this season and lead the way in the Serie A Pinnacle Sports handicap table – they are 5.9% better off than Parma in third and covered 11.8% more than Lazio in fourth.

Napoli are third in Serie A under Rafa Benitez but despite trailing leaders Juventus by 10-points they have been a handicappers dream this season. Gli Azzurri have covered the handicap 77.8% (3rd best) of their games at home and on the road an impressive 62.5% (3rd best). This showcases that Napoli have consistently performed above expectations both home and away this season.

Udinese – eighth in Serie A – in comparison have had contrasting form on the handicap when playing at home compared to away. The Bianconeri have been exceptional at home on the handicap this season covering in all eight games at the Stadio Friuli despite losing three. On the road however they have under-performed slightly from the bookmakers expectations covering in just 44.4% of those games.

Bettors would be well advised to monitor the handicap values at both Napoli and Udinese to recognize when either are overvalued as a result of their performances against the spread thus far.

Juventus & Milan: Two to avoid for handicap bettors

Juventus hold a five-point advantage – losing just once – at the top of Serie A and have won their last nine games as they go in search of their third successive Scudetto.

Despite being in such good form, handicap bettors will be interested to know that the Bianconeri have covered the spread in just 29.4% of games (3rd worst). Their form at home against the spread is so poor they have covered in just 12.5% of their games at The Juventus Stadium despite winning all eight games. On the road Juventus’ cover percentage increases to 44.4% but have still under-performed slightly.

Juventus’ overall performance against the handicap this season underlines an opportunity for bettors to make a profit betting against them on the spread, despite the Serie A leaders wining all but two of their 17 Serie A games – an option which could prove more profitable than backing them to win on the 12 market.

AC Milan are one of the most prestigious teams in Italy with 18 Serie A titles. The Rossoneri’s haven’t finished outside the top three of Serie A since the 2007-08 season but find themselves struggling in 13th – 17 points from third.

With such poor performances this season it isn’t surprising that Milan are the worst performing team against the spread this season covering in a measly 17.6% (3 matches) of games – 25% at home and 11.1% (worst in the division) on the road.

With bookmakers obviously overvaluing the Rossoneri’s strength in the first half of the season, the key question is by how much? Answering this question could prove profitable as the bookmaker reacts to their handicap form, creating an opportunity for them to be undervalued in the future.

Sampdoria & Lazio: A tale of home and away

When betting on the handicap bettors should be mindful of teams that perform better at home than on the road, and vice versa. These trends can skew their overall handicap performance and so far in the 2013/14 Serie A season Sampdoria and Lazio are two such teams.

Lazio have an overall handicap cover percentage of 58.8%, while Sampdoria have done so in 47.1% of their games. However by keeping their own data bettors would have noticed that Lazio’s home record (100%) against the spread is far superior to when they play away (22.2%).

Sampdoria in comparison have covered the spread at home in just 11.1% (worst in the division) of their home games compared to an impressive 87.5% (best in the division) on their travels.

Both Lazio’s and Sampdoria’s handicap form this season highlights the need for bettors to keep their own handicap records so they can highlight trends in the data, helping them set their own handicap strength and therefore deciding if a teams handicap is wrong.

Want to understand more about soccer handicap betting? Click here to learn the basics.

See the latest Serie A handicap betting odds now.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

суббота, 28 декабря 2013 г.

Which La Liga teams are profitable on the handicap?

Which La Liga teams are profitable on the handicap?

By Michael Gales Dec 27, 2013

Tweet

With the 2013/14 La Liga teams now on their winter break until January 5th, Pinnacle Sports has gathered this seasons handicap data for bettors to study. Despite being third, Real Madrid have been abysmal against the spread, while Malaga are proving profitable.

The story so far: 2013/14 La Liga handicap table before winter break

The La Liga handicap table below shows how well the Spanish teams have performed against expectations up until the winter break. Instead of looking at the win-loss-draw performance of each team, the table highlights the teams that have exceeded expectation or under-performed – a vital tool for La Liga soccer betting.

2013/14 La Liga Handicap table

Team

Handicap Position

La Liga Position

Difference

Cover %

Home Cover %

Away Cover %

Malaga

1

10

+9

70.6%

62.5%

77.8%

Levante

2

13

+11

64.7%

62.5%

66.7%

Atletico Madrid

3

2

-1

64.7%

66.7%

62.5%

Villarreal

4

6

+2

58.8%

55.6%

62.5%

Athletic Bilbao

5

4

-1

58.8%

66.7%

50.0%

Granada

6

12

+6

52.9%

33.3%

75.0%

Elche

7

14

+7

52.9%

44.4%

62.5%

Osasuna

8

18

+10

52.9%

50.0%

55.6%

Espanyol

9

9

0

47.1%

44.4%

50.0%

Barcelona

10

1

-9

47.1%

50.0%

44.4%

Real Sociedad

11

5

-6

47.1%

62.5%

33.3%

Seville

12

7

-5

41.2%

25.0%

55.6%

Rayo Vallecano

13

19

+6

41.2%

37.5%

44.4%

Getafe

14

8

-6

41.2%

44.4%

37.5%

Almeria

15

16

+1

35.3%

12.5%

55.6%

Real Valladolid

16

17

+1

35.3%

25.0%

44.4%

Celta Vigo

17

15

-2

29.4%

11.1%

50.0%

Valencia

18

11

-7

29.4%

22.2%

37.5%

Real Madrid

19

3

-16

29.4%

50.0%

11.1%

Real Betis

20

20

0

23.5%

22.2%

25.0%

Real Madrid & Barcelona

Apart from El Clasico matches there is little value to be had betting on either Barcelona or Real Madrid on the weekly 12 markets. Instead bettors look towards the handicap markets. Barcelona and Real Madrid may be first and third respectively, but on Pinnacle Sports’ La Liga handicap table they rank 10th and 19th respectively.

The Catalan giants have covered the spread in 47.1% – covering in eight of their 17 games – of La Liga games this season, which suggests the bookmakers have a good grasp of their overall strength. At the Nou Camp they have covered in 50% of games, while their away record has seen them fail to cover the handicap in 55.6% of games.

Real Madrid’s handicap data is much more interesting for bettors as they have the second worst record against the spread this season. In their 17 La Liga games to date, the Galacticos have covered just 29.4% of the time – five times.

A closer look at the table shows that despite covering in 50% of games at the Bernabeu, they have under-performed on the road, covering in just one game against Almeria (11.1% of games) – the worst in La Liga. Despite winning six, losing one and drawing two of these games, savvy bettors would have noticed an opportunity to make a profit on Madrid being overvalued.

Malaga exceeding expectations

With a host of changes at Malaga during the summer, which saw star players Isco, Joaqun and Jrmy Toulalan sold in an attempt to settle huge debts, and Bernd Schuster take over as manager from Manuel Pellegrini, many expected the club to struggle after successive top six finishes.

With such upheaval bookmakers have struggled to judge the relative strength of Los Boquerones resulting in an opportunity for informed bettors to make a profit.

Despite sitting 10th in La Liga – five points above the relegation zone – Malaga are top of the Pinnacle Sports’ handicap table after covering in an impressive 70.6% of games this season. What this highlights is that bookmakers have underestimated Malaga’s strength – influenced by the big changes – considerably so far this season, especially on the road where they have covered in seven of their nine games, despite winning just one.

Bettors should keep a close eye on Malaga’s handicap values in the future with the goal of recognising when they are overvalued – as a direct result of being undervalued – first, therefore creating an opportunity to win.

Value to be had on overvalued home teams

It is no secret that football teams over the course of a season will more often than not perform better at home than on the road. This creates an opening for bettors to find value backing against certain teams at home on the handicap.

Celta Vigo for instance have covered in just one (11.7%) of their nine La Liga games at home compared to 50% on the road, which highlights a clear overvaluation at home.

Despite sitting seventh in the table and playing just two teams above them, Seville’s record at home against the handicap is disappointing – covering in 25% of games. Their home handicap record is far worse than when they play away (55.6%), which shows that they haven’t performed as expected at the Sanchez Pizjuan this season.

However a closer look shows that they have played half of these games directly after playing in the Europa League. Are these escapades across Europe affecting them more than their handicap value suggests? Which could explain their poor handicap performances at home this season?

Want to understand more about soccer handicap betting? Click here to learn the basics.

See the latest La Liga handicap betting odds now.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Can anyone stop Djokovic, Nadal or Murray lifting the ATP Australian Open trophy?

Can anyone stop Djokovic, Nadal or Murray lifting the ATP Australian Open trophy?

By Dan Weston Dec 27, 2013

Tweet

The tennis season is in full swing and the first of the four Grand Slam events, the Australian Open, begins on the 13th January. With two of Djokovic, Nadal or Murray competing in each of the last three Australian Open finals, do the odds suggest anyone can stop them this year?

Last year in Melbourne, the men’s event featured 79.1% service holds, which was slightly above the 78.3% ATP hard court average.  Historically the courts have played slightly slowly, with only 76.8% service holds from 2011-2013.  Looking at these stats it’s reasonable to assume that conditions are playing close to average, and cannot feature heavily in analysing a player’s chances of success.

For those that are new to tennis betting, it’s worth pointing out that Grand Slam matches are played over the best of five sets, with the finalists needing to play seven matches in a fortnight. The consequence of this is that fitness is an even more crucial facet of success for players in Grand Slam events, and getting through the early matches without playing long, five set matches is critical.

The financial and ranking point incentives of Grand Slams dictate that favourites tend to dominate more than a regular ATP event and it’s worth noting that 26 of the 30 finalists in the past ten years have come from the top five seeds.  Only three non-seeds have made the final in the past 10 years, and all were illustrious players – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Marcos Baghdatis and Marat Safin.  All other finalists have come from the top five seeds apart from Fernando Gonzalez (10th seed) in 2007.

Djokovic, Nadal & Murray: The main contenders

There can be no doubt that the man to beat in the tournament is Novak Djokovic.  The Serb – currently valued at 2.200* – has won the tournament every year since 2011 and was clearly the form player at the end of the 2013 season, winning his last 24 matches of the campaign in a run spanning back to early September.  His record overall in the Australian Open is highly impressive, winning 39 of his 44 career main draw matches.  It’s also worth mentioning that Djokovic has hired Boris Becker as his new coach during the off-season – Becker’s first coaching role.

Rafael Nadal did not participate in 2013 due to his recovery from knee surgery, but was the last player to beat Djokovic – doing so in the final of the US Open (the other Grand Slam played on hard court).  The Spanish world number one is currently available at 3.310* but seemed to be a level below the imperious Djokovic towards the end of 2013, with losses to Djokovic (twice), Juan Martin Del Potro and David Ferrer.

Whilst injury has forced his ranking to drop to number four, there can be no doubt that Andy Murray (2011 and 2013 runner-up) completes the elite trio at the forefront of the men’s game.

Murray, who is third favourite at 9.000*, missed the end of the season, not competing since the Davis Cup clash with Croatia in early September, as he underwent back surgery.  With little quantifiable information available on top players immediate success after returning from serious surgery (especially with a Grand Slam very soon after their comeback), it’s very difficult to assess Murray’s chances.  How he reacts to the gruelling nature of Grand Slams, so soon after major surgery will ultimately determine whether or not he can win.

These three players have competed every final between them since 2011 and based on the hard court serve and return stats below, it’s difficult to see a different outcome in 2014.

2013 ATP service and break statistics

Player

Rank

2013 Service Hold %

2013 Break Opponent %

Combined %

Nadal

1

90.3

31.7

122

Djokovic

2

88.9

35.6

124.5

Ferrer

3

77.3

33.2

110.5

Murray

4

84.3

33.2

117.5

Del Potro

5

85.5

25.8

111.3

Federer

6

88.3

24.9

113.2

Berdych

7

85.1

30.5

115.6

Wawrinka

8

85.5

21.7

107.2

Gasquet

9

82.7

24.8

107.5

Tsonga

10

86.3

23.4

109.7

Can anyone upset the main contenders?

The above stats illustrate that there is a second tier of players, with David Ferrer priced at 86.000*, Juan Martin Del Potro 15.000*, Roger Federer 21.000*, Tomas Berdych 109.340* and arguably Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 99.370* in that bracket.

Del Potro is the shortest priced contender away from the top three and is considered amongst some to be close to the elite.  Certainly, on his best form, he can upset the top players, but the five set format of Grand Slams does not do him any favours.  As we can see above, he only broke opponents 25.8% on hard court in 2013 and this is almost 10% below Djokovic, and around 6-8% behind Nadal, Murray & Ferrer.

Roger Federer last won this event in 2010 but the Swiss legend – currently ranked at number six in the world – isn’t quite the player he once was.  He’s lost his last seven matches to Djokovic (three) & Nadal (four) combined with his last victory against either player coming in the final of Cincinnati in August 2012.

These five players form the basis of the ‘best of the rest’ market of players under or around 100/1, with only Stanislas Wawrinka 52.490* also considered a realistic contender by the market.

‘Long-shots’ at long prices

Milos Raonic, Jerzy Janowicz, John Isner and Ernests Gulbis are several other players worth discussing as very long-shots.

Raonic currently available at 109.430* , Janowicz 138.620* and Isner 217.490* are all ‘big servers’ with relatively limited return games.

Raonic impressed in the latter stages of the 2013 season and has been tipped by many to break into the top ten in 2014.  His hard court 2013 stats of 91.1% service holds and 15.8% opponent breaks give him a combined percentage of 106.9 – showing that he has no better surface stats than any of the current top ten.

Janowicz had a losing 5-7 record on hard courts in 2013 so has a lot to prove, whilst John Isner’s very mediocre return game (12.2% opponent breaks on hard court in 2013) means that his matches tend to be very long.  The impact of this accumulated fatigue is that he gets tired earlier in the event and could be the reason why he has a mediocre record in Grand Slams.

Finally, there can be little doubt that Gulbis 217.490* has the talent to get to the latter stages of big tournaments, but the enigmatic Latvian’s erratic mentality means that it’s difficult for him to perform consistently at a high level for a fortnight.  However, with an 11-4 record on hard court in 2013, and with better serve/break stats than some of the top ten (83.6% holds and 27.8% opponent breaks on the surface), the top players would be very wise not to underestimate him.

It’s worth stressing that betting in Grand Slams is a very different proposition to the normal 3 set ATP matches.  It’s vital that bettors do their research and make the necessary adjustments if they are to profit in Grand Slam events.

Click here to see the latest ATP Australian Open odds

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer and his work can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Can Williams win her first Australian Open since 2010?

Can Williams win her first Australian Open since 2010?

By Dan Weston Dec 27, 2013

Tweet

The first WTA Grand Slam of the year – the Australian Open– begins on the 13th January, with Serena Williams listed as the big favourite. Can Williams overcome her poor form and lift her first title at Melbourne Park since 2010, or will there be a shock on the cards?

History suggests the winner is ranked inside the top 10

The Australian Open is the first Grand Slam in 2014 and it is vital that bettors treat the WTA version (best of three sets) as a completely different betting proposition to the ATP version (best of five sets). Whilst the men’s competition is a supreme test of fitness, the women’s tournament is no different in match duration to normal events.

The effect of this is that whilst the best of five format tends to favour the ‘better player’ in the men’s event, women do not enjoy that advantage.

As mentioned in the ATP preview, the conditions in this event tend to play a touch on the slower side of average, so it’s not a huge consideration when assessing the contenders in the WTA outright markets. 61.5% of service games were held in 2013, which is slightly below the 2013 WTA hard court mean of 63.1%.

With 28 of the 30 previous finalists in the last ten years coming from top ten players, and the two exceptions being Justine Henin and Serena Williams – both former world number ones at that point – it is clear that when looking at potential winners that the main focus must be on the current top ten players.

Serena Williams is currently available as the 1.901* favourite, but her recent record in Melbourne is not particularly good when considering how far above the competition she generally is. From 2005-2010, she did capture four titles, but the world number one has not made the final for the previous three years, losing to Sloane Stephens in 2013, Ekaterina Makarova in 2012 and not participating in 2011.

However, it’s worth looking at the table below, which illustrates the superiority Williams enjoyed over the top ten on hard court in 2013. The table also includes the five players ranked outside the top ten that are priced under 100 in the outright markets. *

2013 WTA service and break statistics

Player

Rank

2013 Service Hold %

2013 Break Opponent %

Combined %

S. Williams

1

84.8

51.8

136.6

Azarenka

2

68.9

57.3

126.2

Li

3

73.2

48

121.2

Sharapova

4

79.8

51.7

131.5

A. Radwanska

5

73.4

46.3

119.7

Kvitova

6

70.6

37.8

108.4

Errani

7

56.8

51

107.8

Jankovic

8

62.1

44.2

106.3

Kerber

9

67.9

44.1

112

Wozniacki

10

69.2

43.7

112.9

Halep

11

68.5

47.7

116.2

Stephens

12

67.4

37.3

104.7

Lisicki

15

72

36.1

108.1

Ivanovic

16

69.4

43.1

112.5

Stosur

18

72.5

35.9

108.4

Big difference amongst the top five

The top five players in the world – all with combined percentages of around 120 or higher – are on a much higher level than the rest. Williams has a combined percentage of 5.1% more than the second place Maria Sharapova. To put this in context, the men’s favourite, Novak Djokovic’s combined percentage was just 2.5% above Rafael Nadal.

In the outright market, Victoria Azarenka is the 6.160* second favourite. The Belarussian is probably the player that can best compete with Williams (they won two head to head matches apiece in 2013), but she suffered a hugely disappointing end to the 2013 season, losing five of her last six matches (three as favourite priced at 1.250 or below), and failing to qualify from the Round Robin stage of the WTA Championships in Istanbul.

Maria Sharapova is third favourite, and was ranked second in the combined percentages table above. Having missed the last three months of the season with a shoulder injury, she’s currently priced at 10.150*. As with Andy Murray in the men’s tournament, it’s very difficult to know how her body will react to a two week campaign, and she may need to get a better level of match fitness before she can realistically hope to compete with the best.

2011 and 2013 runner-up Na Li is next in the betting at 11.470*. Whilst the Chinese player has strong hard court stats and is definitely capable of giving the top players a tough match, there are doubts over her mental strength. Both her final defeats here were after she took the first set, and she has a poor 7-11 record in all WTA and Grand Slam finals combined in her career.

The final member of the top five, Agnieszka Radwanska, is sixth favourite in the market currently, available at 33.110*. With only one Grand Slam final in her career (a loss to Serena Williams in Wimbledon 2012), and the stats showing her level to be below the other members of the top five on hard court, it’s difficult to see the Pole making significant inroads beyond the quarter finals, unless the draw opens favours her.

Best of the rest

Several other contenders priced below 100 in the outright market worth mentioning are Petra Kvitova, Simona Halep and Sam Stosur.

Despite being ranked 6th in the world, and having questionable hard court stats, Kvitova is fifth favourite in the betting at 19.170*. However with her 2013 hard court opponent break percentage being just 37.8% (by some considerable distance the worst in the top ten), and with an incredible 50% of her matches in 2013 going to three sets, bettors must decide if she will win enough matches easily enough to avoid the accumulated fatigue that is so vital in Grand Slams.

Simona Halep was not even seeded in the 2013 Australian Open but in an incredible season which saw her win six titles, she finds herself priced at 43.780* for the event. She is an emerging talent but it’s worth mentioning that she picked up a fairly large proportion of her ranking points in low-level events against weaker competition, and these matches may flatter her stats slightly.

Finally, Sam Stosur will enjoy home player support but the 2011 US Open Champion, priced at 43.780*, has failed to get past the last 16 in this event. It has been mentioned by many that she may find the expectation a burden instead of a boost, and with such a career record it’s very tough to expect her to get significantly further than this.

Click here to see the latest WTA Australian Open Odds

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer and his work can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

вторник, 24 декабря 2013 г.

Are Cardiff underrated at home against Southampton?

Are Cardiff underrated at home against Southampton?

By Michael Gales Dec 23, 2013

Tweet

Despite covering the spread in 62.5% of home games this season, Cardiff City find themselves as underdogs against visiting Southampton on Boxing Day. Given the Saints’ poor form of late and Cardiff’s record at home on the handicap are the Bluebirds undervalued?

What does Cardiff’s handicap form suggest?

Four-points above the relegation zone newcomers Cardiff City may be struggling in their inaugural year in the Premier League – winning just three of their eight home games – but handicap bettors will be interested by their performance against the spread.

A quick look at Cardiff’s record would suggest they haven’t had a great start at home, however they have played six of the top eight at home already, losing their three games against Arsenal, Tottenham and Newcastle.

Unsurprisingly given their opposition at the Cardiff City Stadium, Handicap bettors will be interested to know they have been underdogs against the spread at home in all but one game – Newcastle United.

The Bluebirds have covered the spread in 52.9% of games this season but at home their percentage increases to 62.5%.

So despite facing tougher opposition they have performed better on the spread at home than on the road where they have faced seven of their nine games against teams in the bottom half of the EPL, covering just 33% of the time.

Once more Cardiff are underdogs with the handicap set at 0 and -0.5 in favour of the visitors, are the bookmakers undervaluing the Bluebirds again?

Mackay vs. Tan: A motivation or a hindrance?

Cardiff manager Malky Mackay expected to lose his job last weekend after being given an ultimatum to resign or be sacked by the clubs owner Vincent Tan.

Despite masterminding Cardiff’s promotion last season the relationship between manager/owner has been toxic for a number of weeks, and almost came to a head. Many believe the situation is untenable but Mackay is refusing to resign and Tan has stated he won’t sack him at the moment.

Bettors should consider how this off the field issue might affect the players. Could it provide motivation for the team creating a mentality of ‘lets do it for the manager’ or might it have a negative impact? Only time will tell, but it is something worth considering before placing your bet.

Southampton’s handicap performance on the road

Southampton made a fantastic start to the season but are the worst team in the EPL form guide and have slipped down to ninth in the table following four defeats and two draws in their last six games.

Against the handicap this season the Saints have covered the spread in 52.9% of their EPL games – but just twice in the last six games. Interestingly they have covered in 50% of their away games, including at Newcastle, Liverpool and Manchester United.

Another point worth noting is that the Saints have failed to score more than one goal in an away game this season and average 0.75 goals per game, compared to 1.29 at home, while they concede just 1.13 goals per game, the second best in the division.

Southampton’s away games have been low scoring affairs with an average of 1.87 goals per game, however excluding the 3-1 and 2-0 defeats against Chelsea and Arsenal respectively, that average falls to a mere 1.28 goals.

This highlights that away from home Southampton are tough to score against, but may sacrifice some of their attacking threat in order to keep it tight at the back.

Bettors must decide if the Saints – who are in a poor run of form – as 0 and -0.5 favourites are overvalued, given they are playing a Cardiff team who have performed above expectations on the spread at home this season?

Click here to see the latest Cardiff City vs. Southampton odds

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

понедельник, 23 декабря 2013 г.

Will England qualify in tough Group D?

Will England qualify in tough Group D?

By Michael Gales Dec 23, 2013

Tweet

The 2014 World Cup odds to qualify from Group D are extremely close with Italy slightly favoured over Uruguay and England. How will England play without expectation, will Italy cope with the heat and could travel affect Uruguay?

England: Could they prosper without the pressure of expectation?

Fifa Ranking: 13th

Best Finish: Winners (1966)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,972^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 25.000*

England dropped outside of the top seven (13th) in the world and subsequently missed the chance to be seeded for the World Cup, which resulted in them being drawn in a tough Group D alongside Uruguay, Italy and Costa Rica.

Such is the quality of opposition in Group D England are the 1.769* third-favourites to qualify, which suggests the bookmakers are not completely comfortable on who will secure the top two places.

The Three Lions qualified top of their group, finishing unbeaten and conceding just four goals. On paper England’s campaign looked impressive – conceding just 0.4 goals per match and scoring 3.1 – but in reality their group consisted of relatively poor opposition.

A sign of the level England that are at was made apparent in back-to-back friendly defeats at Wembley, first to Chile and then Germany. For once optimism isn’t high amongst fans and the media alike. Could this give the players the freedom to perform without the huge expectation they feel at every major tournament?

If England are to be successful in Brazil, striker Wayne Rooney must perform better than his two previous World Cups. Despite playing in South Africa & Germany, Rooney has failed to score on the biggest stage of all. However seven goals in just six qualifiers has given him a fantastic platform to build on in Brazil.

Is the tough group actually a bonus? Given the pressure and expectation that has been lifted, if they do progress, the confidence they would gain would make them a difficult team to play. Then again the expectation would more than likely return.

England’s record against Group D opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Italy

8

9

7

33%

Uruguay

1

1

1

33%

Costa Rica

0

0

0

0%

Italy: Favourites to qualify, but only just

Fifa Ranking: 7th

Best Finish: Winners (1934, 1938, 1982 & 2006)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,920^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 25.000*

Italy are the 1.400* Group D favourites to qualify out of the group. They are the second most successful nation at the World Cup but that stands for little as they have won just once – 2006 – in the modern era and were eliminated as defending champions without a point in 2010. (Click here to see if historical performance is useful for predicting World Cup winners.)

They qualified with two matches to spare, along with the Netherlands, becoming the first European nation to book their place in Brazil. Despite a successful campaign, manager Cesare Prandelli, experimented in the final two games which the Azzurri drew, dropping crucial ranking points, ultimately dashing their hopes of being seeded – which could prove decisive given that they are in a tough group.

Prandelli will be hoping to get the best out of the enigma that is Mario Balotelli as he did in Euro 2012, scoring three goals and helping them on their way to the final. The Milan forward has scored 12 goals in 29 appearances – and they have never lost when he has found the net.

Italy will suffer the highest average temperatures of any team in the World Cup with an average of 86F. The fact they finished third in the 2013 Confederations Cup in Brazil could prove to be a trump card in dealing with the heat.

Another bonus is their style of play which is possession-based with a patient approach – when they have the ball the opposition will be getting tired trying to win it back. One issue the Azzurri may have is how Andrea Pirlo – who will be 35 – will perform in the energy sapping heat? With Pirlo fundamental to their ball retention, if he is off his game, how much of an impact could that have?

Italy’s record against Group D opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

England

9

8

7

37.5%

Uruguay

2

3

4

22%

Costa Rica

0

0

0

0%

Uruguay: Great attacking threat, but defensive frailties could be fatal

Fifa Ranking: 6th

Best Finish: Winners (1930 & 1950)

Overall Miles to travel: 2,886^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 25.000*

Uruguay are the seeded team in Group D but are the 1.541* 2nd favourites to progress to the knockout stages.

Qualifying didn’t go smoothly as they finished fifth in the South American table and had to beat Jordan in a playoff game to qualify. Their main problem was in defence conceding the same number as they scored (25). The stats don’t read pretty either having conceded 1.39 goals per game (2nd highest) 33% of goals from set-pieces (3rd highest) and 20% of goals inside the first 15 minutes. Is this a sign that experienced centre-back pairing Diego Godin and captain Diego Lugano careers are in decline?

On the other end of the spectrum they have a fantastic trio of forwards in Edinson Cavani, Luis Suarez and Diego Forlan – so scoring goals shouldn’t be a problem. Cavani will lead the line, with Suarez given licence to roam.

Travel could become an issue for La Celeste as they will travel a combined total of 2,886 miles during their three Group D matches – third highest at the World Cup and much more than their Group D opponents. Bettors must consider how this will affect an ageing team, who have struggled away from home in the past year?

Before betting on Uruguay bettors need to consider if Uruguay’s defensive woes and laborious travel schedule will outweigh their attacking threat? Answering this conundrum should give you a better insight whether or not you will back them to qualify for the knockout stages.

Uruguay’s record against Group D opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

England

1

1

1

33%

Italy

3

2

4

33%

Costa Rica

5

0

2

71%

Costa Rica: Tough, resilient, organized… but big outsiders to qualify

Fifa Ranking: 31st

Best Finish: Last 16 (1990)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,411^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: N/A

Odds of 8.220* suggest Costa Rica will be the Group D whipping boys, however they are defensively solid and have moved from 64th in the world to 31st – second most improved at the World Cup.

During qualifying Los Ticos finished runners-up in the final group stage after winning their five home games and conceding just seven goals in the final phase – fewer than any other team. Their defensive solidarity is a hindrance to their attacking play however, which is notable given they failed to score in 31% of their qualifying matches.

If they are to impose themselves in an attacking sense they will need key contributions from Fulham’s Bryan Ruiz and young starlet Joel Campbell.

Another key component to the Costa Rican cog is Goalkeeper Keylor Navas. The Keeper kept seven clean sheets in 14 qualifying matches and will need to be on top form if they are to progress.

Historically they qualified for the last 16 in their first appearance in a World Cup but group exits have followed in 2002 and 2006. Baring a brilliant performance and a large chunk of luck a group exit looks likely for a third successive time.

Costa Rica’s record against Group D opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

England

0

0

0

0%

Italy

0

0

0

0%

Costa Rica

0

0

0

0%

^ This is the overall number of miles each nation will travel during the group stages from their selected base camp.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup futures odds.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup match odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

пятница, 20 декабря 2013 г.

Will the conditions favour Group C favourites Colombia?

Will the conditions favour Group C favourites Colombia?

By Michael Gales Dec 19, 2013

Tweet

Colombia are the clear 2014 World Cup Group C favourites to progress into the last 16 ahead of Japan, the Ivory Coast and Greece. How much will the travel and conditions benefit the South Americans and hinder the rest?

Colombia: Are they undervalued?

Fifa Ranking: 4th

Best Finish: Last 16 (1990)

Overall Miles to travel: 932^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 21.000*

In a weak Group C Colombia are the 1.278* favourites to reach the 2014 World Cup knockout stages for just the second time – having been eliminated at the Group stages in three of their four previous appearances.

The fourth best team in the world – according to Fifa – qualified comfortably in second-place behind Argentina. They set a personal record by winning 30 points from 16 games, which included notable 4-0 and 3-1 wins against Uruguay and Chile respectively, while they battled hard to earn a point in a goalless draw in Argentina.

Colombia conceded the fewest goals in South American qualifying and secured an impressive 85% of possible points from winning positions. Interestingly in-play bettors should take note that they failed to score from a corner in 16 games; is this a consequence of poor delivery, good defending or just bad luck?

Much of Colombia’s potential success will revolve around striker Radamel Falcao, who scored nine times in qualifying and has 151 goals in 193 club games since playing in Europe.

The conditions in Brazil are likely to favour Los Cafeteros. Their qualifying games were played in the scorching Caribbean port of Barranquilla, opting for mid-afternoon kick-offs in the belief that their rivals would wilt in the heat. At 38, captain Mario Yepes, belied his age in qualification but will he be up to three games in quick succession?.

Apart from the familiar conditions the Colombian’s also have much fewer miles to travel during the group stages compared to their Group C rivals. With shorter travelling times and a familiarity to the conditions, are they undervalued?

Colombia’s record against Group C opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Ivory Coast

0

0

0

0%

Japan

1

0

1

50%

Greece

0

0

0

0%

Ivory Coast: Golden generation turning grey

Fifa Ranking: 17th

Best Finish: Group Stage (2006 & 2010)

Overall Miles to travel: 2,081^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 121.000*

The Ivorians are an ageing squad and much like England’s golden generation they have failed to live up to expectations. This is surely the last chance for them to stamp their mark on the world stage, and odds of 2.160* suggest progression from Group C is not a given.

Their failure is evident given they are yet to break their African Cup of Nations duck and failed to get out of the World Cup group stages in 2006 and 2010 when great things were expected. With that said they have been drawn in two ‘Groups of Death’ finishing third behind Argentina and the Netherlands in 2006 and Brazil and Portugal in 2010.

Along with Nigeria, Les lphants were the only African side to qualify unbeaten. They won their preliminary group before beating Senegal 4-2 on aggregate. During qualifying they proved their desire to remain unbeaten by taking 56% of their points from losing positions, while they were one of seven teams who have qualified to score in every match.

With an easier group than they have faced in previous World Cups, is this the time for Didier Drogba and co to deliver? Or will complacency creep into the Ivorian’s approach?

Ivory Coast’s record against Group C opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Colombia

0

0

0

0%

Japan

1

1

0

50%

Greece

0

0

0

0%

Japan: Do they have the potential to be a surprise package?

Fifa Ranking: 48th

Best Finish: Round of 16 (2002 & 2010)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,731^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 121.000*

The Japanese are renowned as a technically gifted team yet defensively susceptible and a little light-weight; as a result they are offered at 2.070* to progress to the knockout stage for the third time.

They have qualified for every World Cup since 1998 and were the first to confirm their name in the draw for 2014. They dominated Asia’s final qualifying group recording 17 points and finishing top scorers – interestingly scoring 30% of their goals from headers.

Despite this, Japan have suffered a dip in form over the last year, which has seen them drop from 24th in the World Rankings to 48th following three straight defeats in the Confederations Cup and losses against Serbia and Belarus. However they responded by drawing in the Netherlands and then beating Belgium in November.

Does this revival in form offer an indication that Japan could yet be a surprise package at the World Cup or is their Confederations Cup embarrassment in Brazil a sign of things to come?

Japan’s record against Group C opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Ivory Coast

1

1

0

50%

Colombia

0

0

0

0%

Greece

1

0

0

100%

Greece: Will strong defence be enough? 

Fifa Ranking: 12th

Best Finish: Group Stage (1994 & 2010)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,409^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 151.000*

Greece are the 3.420* Group C underdogs to progress to the knockout stage, despite being the second best ranked team in the group. In their two previous World Cup campaigns (1994 & 2010) they departed in the group stages, but at Euro 2012 they upset the odds to beat Russia and reach the quarter-finals.

The Greeks finished second in their qualifying group behind Bosnia but beat Romania 4-2 on aggregate in the Playoffs. During qualifying they conceded just four times and two of them were from freekicks.

Portuguese coach, Fernando Santos, has been manager since taking over from Otto Rehhagel – who masterminded Greece’s remarkable Euro 2004 win – in 2010. Santos has previously stated his desire to make the team more expansive, only for them to as he puts it “slip back into our comfort zone, our defensive strength”.

Greece may have a solid defence but to progress to the last 16 they will need to offer more in attack. Target man Kostas Mitroglou may provide the answer for the Ethniki. He has been in terrific form for Olympiakos scoring a goal every 2.04 games, while he netted three times against Romania to qualify.

To qualify for the knockout stages Greece may have to sacrifice a bit of defensive solidity in favour of a more attacking approach, it’s up to you to decide whether this will help or hinder their chances?

Greece’s record against Group C opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Ivory Coast

0

0

0

0%

Japan

0

1

0

0%

Colombia

0

0

0

0%

^ This is the overall number of miles each nation will travel during the group stages from their selected base camp.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup futures odds.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup match odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

среда, 18 декабря 2013 г.

Is historical performance useful for predicting the World Cup winner?

Is historical performance useful for predicting the World Cup winner?

By Mirio Mella Dec 18, 2013

Tweet

With the draw for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil now complete, all discussion is focused on who’ll lift the trophy on July 13th. Given the tournament only takes place every four years, is historical performance useful for predicting the eventual winner? And if not, what is?

For any bettor looking to predict the 2014 World Cup winner, historical form would appear to be an obvious place to start. There have been 19 FIFA World Cups since the inaugural tournament in Uruguay in 1930, so analysing nations’ historical performances could be considered a reasonable way to arrive at a rough idea of their chances.

Year

Host

Host confederation

Winner

Winner confederation

Runner-up

No. of participants

1930

Uruguay

CONMEBOL

Uruguay

CONMEBOL

Argentina

13

1934

Italy

UEFA

Italy

UEFA

Czechoslovakia

16

1938

France

UEFA

Italy

UEFA

Hungary

16

1950

Brazil

CONMEBOL

Uruguay

CONMEBOL

Brazil

13

1954

Switzerland

UEFA

W. Germany

UEFA

Hungary

16

1958

Sweden

UEFA

Brazil

CONMEBOL

Sweden

16

1962

Chile

CONMEBOL

Brazil

CONMEBOL

Czechoslovakia

16

1966

England

UEFA

England

UEFA

W. Germany

16

1970

Mexico

CONMEBOL

Brazil

CONMEBOL

Italy

16

1974

W. Germany

UEFA

W. Germany

UEFA

Netherlands

16

1978

Argentina

CONMEBOL

Argentina

CONMEBOL

Netherlands

16

1982

Spain

UEFA

Italy

UEFA

W. Germany

24

1986

Mexico

CONMEBOL

Argentina

CONMEBOL

W. Germany

24

1990

Italy

UEFA

W. Germany

UEFA

Argentina

24

1994

United States

CONCACAF

Brazil

CONMEBOL

Italy

24

1998

France

UEFA

France

UEFA

Brazil

32

2002

South Korea & Japan

AFC

Brazil

CONMEBOL

Germany

32

2006

Germany

UEFA

Italy

UEFA

France

32

2010

South Africa

CAF

Spain

UEFA

Netherlands

32

The historical World Cup winners’ data (table 1) shows that the Confederation of the winner and of the host appears to correlate. But does more detailed analysis of those 19 tournaments support this theory?

Continental shift

The winners of the first five World Cups came from the host Confederation, but this should come as no surprise. Take the first tournament in 1930, hosted and won by Uruguay. Only four of the 13 competing teams were from Europe, the reason being that it took them three weeks to make the Trans-Atlantic journey.

Aside from there being more South American teams, the implications on performances for the travelling Europeans would have been significant – not much chance of training on board a ship – compounded by the fact that few European players would have had any experience playing overseas.

Travel remained a key issue at the 1934 & 1938 events in Italy and France, which respectively saw only 4/16 and 3/16 nations represented from outside Europe. Both tournaments started in the knockout stage, giving teams no chance to settle into the event. The Italians won both.

Even by 1950, holders Italy travelled by boat to Brazil, where many teams withdraw due to financial constraints, or the difficulties of travel. Only 13 teams participated (one Group had only two teams), and India instructed that they couldn’t play in bare feet, withdrew. It is clear few countries participated on merit. The final saw Uruguay defeat Brazil.

Home Continent Advantage

In these early World Cups, the skewing of participation towards home continent teams, the serious challenges of travel and the haphazard nature of qualification, all contributed to Home Field Advantage.

Though the difficulty of getting to World Cups receded as air travel became more prevalent, HFA was still a significant issue up to the era of the modern format (considered to be 1986). Very few players were based overseas, and tournament organisation remained amateurish by modern standards. The hosts won in 1966, 1974 and 1978.

In the modern game HFA has been widely researched, with studies such as Harvard’s Research Assistant Ryan Boyko who suggesting a 0.1 goal advantage for every 10,000 fans present. It is believed HFA provides an influence on refereeing decisions and psychological benefits to home players.

Beyond the influence of these universal HFA measures, World Cups have seen inferred examples of bias, particularly in 19741, and 19782, as well as explicit imbalances. In both 1978 & 1982, final group games weren’t played in parallel, leading to the infamous ‘Schande von Gijn’ – ‘the Disgrace of Gijon’ – where West Germany and Austria openly contrived a 1-0 result which saw both progress to the second round of the ’82 event, at the expense of Algeria.

Given that since 1978 the host has won just one of the eight tournaments held, we might infer that the game has become more global, organisation more professional and scrutiny has increased. For example, the rules changed following the open collusion in Spain, with all final group games played in tangent.

Equally important is the fact that the choosing of hosts has become more political and moved away from established nations. Only two of the last eight hosts have previously reached a final.

Power Shifts & UEFA/CONMEBOL Bias

The relationship between hosting continent and eventual winner was first broken in 1958 when Brazil and a teenage Pele won in Sweden. This was the dawn of the Golden era of Brazilian soccer, with the national team winning again in 1962 in Chile and 1970 in Mexico. The success of the Selecao illustrates another key factor for bettors to consider when predicting World Cup winners – power shifts.

In 1977 Pele made a now infamous prediction – ‘an African nation will win the World Cup before the year 2000’. Though Pele’s playing ability didn’t qualify him as a pundit, the failure of his prediction is relevant as it underestimated the enduring strength of Euro-South American axis of power in soccer.

FIFA places more value on games featuring European and South American teams than otherwise. This explains why only three teams from outside Europe and South America are ranked in FIFA’s top 30 – the USA, the Ivory Coast and Ghana. If all continents were treated equally, then in theory the Ivory Coast and the USA would be seeds for the World Cup, impacting their chances of success.

Though the power of Europe and South America has withstood, there have been significant power shifts within that duopoly. This was seen at France 1998 and South Africa 2010, with two first time winners – France & Spain – going on to win European Championships.

The power dynamics of soccer reflect its geographic origins, and other random factors that influenced its adoption around the world (e.g. English public schools in Argentina). There isn’t a direct relationship, for example, between population size and success, but socio-economic factors are relevant to improvement at grass roots, as well as influencing migration, but these factors are relevant over decades not years.

Any changes, and influences of the shape of international soccer are easy to divine in retrospect, but Spain had flattered to deceive on many occasions before winning in 2010, while the French went into the 1998 event 18th in the FIFA World rankings.

Luck – The best laid predictions

Brazil’s trio of wins from 1958-70 was interrupted by England’s solitary victory in 1966. The Canaries failure highlights another key factor that World Cup bettors must consider – luck.

Pinnacle Sports has previously written about how success=skill + luck. In a sport where luck plays a part, and in the context of a short format event, it should come as no surprise that the winner may not necessarily be the most talented team, or even the team that has played the best football.

Every modern tournament begins with a qualifying tournament, the basis for which is a random draw, then the finals themselves are preceded by the glamour and often confusion of the draw (again random), where national coaches nervously wait to see what hand fate will deal them.

Any bettors who bet on the World Cup before the draw would have been equally nervous as this random process has a significant impact as witnessed by the drift in Spain’s outright odds since being drawn in a tough Group B which could see them meet Brazil as early as the 2nd round.

Once the tournament is underway fate can lurk in many places, not just the pitch. The team bases are scouted many months in advance to try to ensure the best environment, but the draw in Brazil has put thousands of miles between base camps and game venues (e.g England). Even when preparations go smoothly it doesn’t mean this translates onto the pitch.

Up to the 1966 World Cup Garrincha & Pele had played 40 international games together without defeat. In their opening 2-0 win over Bulgaria at the tournament in England they both scored, but Pele picked up an injury after being targeted by the Bulgarians, which meant he missed the game against Hungary and they lost 3-1, then the unthinkable happened as Brazil – without Garrincha – lost to Portugal , and were eliminated; their worst performance at a World Cup.

The pair would never play together again; what would have happened if Pele and Garrincha had avoided injury? We will never know, but this kind of circumstance and countless other unforeseeable events in other World Cup tournaments will have had huge bearings on the outcomes.

What constitutes luck is hard to define; poor refereeing decisions are a good example. HFA suggests that the referee is influenced by home support, which could account towards South Korea’s unlikely passage to the last four in 2002. However most games at the World Cup do not involve the host, so infamous episodes such as ‘the Hand of God’ (1986 quarter-final); the Schumacher/Battiston3 incident (1982 semi-final) or the mystery surrounding Ronaldo shortly before the final in Paris (1998) were all extremely important, but impossible to predict.

Luck operates on another level by for example bringing together an unusual concentration of talented players within a generation, which could be said of the current Belgian side.

Unpredictability – Strange things will happen

Sometimes, luck isn’t the issue but sheer unpredictability. Who would have predicted that a 38-year-old African (Roger Millar) would be a hero at the 1990 World Cup, or that a largely unknown Italian striker, Toto Schillaci would top-score for the hosts. In 1994 the Golden Boot was won by a Russian who’s six goals were his only ever at international level, with five in one game against Cameroon. (Read more about betting on the Golden Boot winner here)

It is now clear that there were huge differences across the previous 19 World Cups in terms of participation, format, regulation, biases and luck but outside of these tournament specific elements, the socio-economic and political context were also entirely different which is very relevant.

World Cup comparability – Out of Sample

The challenge of making predictions where a large number of important contributing factors and variables persist, but there is a comparatively small sample size, is known as being ‘out of sample’. The World Cup provides a potent example of this.

Given the difficulty in direct comparison against previous World Cups and the role that luck and wider context play, any tipsters who proclaim certainty about predicting winners should be treated with caution. With such difficulties in the data bettors should instead focus a probabilistic approach to picking a winner, employing something like a Bayesian method (to be looked at separately), and seeking value in odds, rather than trying to draw clear conclusions based on historical tournament trends.

Things to consider:

Given the format of the tournament has been consistent since 1986, barriers to travel removed and soccer become more globalised, results since then should be given far more weight. For example Uruguay’s World Cup wins in 1930 & 1950 are less relevant than their 2010 Copa America success.

Early tournaments provided extreme HFA but this has waned in modern times – since 1978 the host has won just once.

Though Pele was wrong with his prediction about an African Nation winning by 2000, past success doesn’t guarantee future success; the same teams won’t keep winning but power dynamics within World soccer change relatively slowly, and are the result of a multitude of factors, some entirely outside of the game.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup winner odds

Notes

1. In the run-up to the 1974 World Cup final between Germany and The Netherlands, German tabloid Bild were involved in a “setup”. After bribing security guards the paper paid for a group of escorts – in various states of undress – to jump into the pool the Dutch team were relaxing by as paparazzi lay in wait. As the story circulated, Cruyff’s wife was furious and the star spent the night convincing her that nothing happened. The damage was done however, and Germany won 2-1.

2. Controversy surrounded the 1978 World Cup. None more so than the second round game between Argentina and Peru. The hosts needed to win by four goals to proceed to the final and did so by 6-0. Conspiracy theorems ranged from interference from the Argentine military dictatorship, to the Peruvian goalkeeper – who was born in Argentina – throwing the game. Argentina went on to win the World Cup, while no conspiracies were ever proved.

3. Battiston was knocked unconscious, and later slipped into a coma. Michel Platini later said that he thought that Battiston had died, because “he had no pulse and looked pale”. The Dutch referee Charles Corver did not even award a free kick for the incident.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

вторник, 17 декабря 2013 г.

Should Anderson Silva be favoured in rematch vs. Chris Weidman?

Should Anderson Silva be favoured in rematch vs. Chris Weidman?

By Gary Wise Dec 17, 2013

Tweet

11 times, Anderson Silva successfully defended the UFC middleweight belt before losing it to now-champion Chris Weidman at UFC 162 this past July. On December 28th, the two fight again in Weidman’s first title defense. Silva opened as a favourite against the only man who’s ever knocked him out; below, we examine whether he should have.

History and the first fight

Silva’s (1.637*) championship reign was simply the greatest in the history of Mixed Martial Arts. His title defence streak was augmented by three wins at light heavyweight (20 pounds heavier than he customarily fought) and a non-title win against a contender who hadn’t made the weight. In all, he won 16 straight fights in the UFC, another record.

He made it all look too easy, even gaining a reputation for showboating in the ring, at times inviting opponents to hit his unprotected chin in an attempt to incentivise action.

Weidman (2.420*) was respected heading into their first fight, but only to a degree. The 29-year old American entered 9-0 (5-0 UFC 3 KO, 3 sub) in the wake of a brutal knockout of fellow contender Mark Munoz. The market on Silva-Weidman 1 closed with Weidman at 3.11 (Silva at 1.42).

Remarkably, according to Pinnacle Sports markets, that gave Weidman the second-best chance to win of Silva’s ten opponents over the last half-decade.

The fight started with the two circling until Weidman succeeded on his first takedown attempt. Keeping Silva on his back for more than two minutes, Weidman scored enough points to clinch the round before the champion got back to his feet, almost immediately taunting Weidman and calling for an increased pace.

The taunts continued between the first and second rounds, and when Silva intentionally dropped his hands early in the second round, Weidman took advantage. He landed a strike that surprised Silva, putting him off balance. The next strike knocked Silva out cold, ending his title reign.

In the aftermath, all focus was on Silva. After Weidman enthused about a rematch, Silva called Weidman the best and told Rogan he had no interest. “I’m working hard for a long time” he told Rogan “I have the belt for a long time. I’m tired.” Asked if he was retiring, he spoke of the fights left on his UFC contract and turning his attention to his family.

It seemed to many to be pre-meditated and there were questions about whether the loss served as a release. Taken a step further, some wondered if that mindset had affected his preparation.

In their first fight, Weidman out-struck Silva 16-14, scored the fight’s only takedown, made two (strong) submission attempts and knocked Silva out. This is your underdog.

Striking

Silva is generally considered to be the best striker in MMA history, a claim backed up by his career data. While Silva and Weidman have virtually identical strikes per minute (3.15 to 3.14) over their careers, Weidman has landed 42% of the time, compared to Silva’s remarkable 67% success rate.

This means Weidman is throwing 50% more strikes-per-minute, while also absorbing more opposing strikes than Silva (1.89/minute to 1.43). Weidman has never gone more than 3 rounds, but one could extrapolate the pace he sets could cause him problems if the second fight were to go to rounds 4 and 5.

Given Silva’s reputation and record, one has to think a focused Silva would be far more difficult to knock out than he showed at UFC 162.

Grappling

A two-time all-American wrestler in college, Weidman’s professional stats reflect that pedigree. He’s averaged 4.21 takedown attempts every 15 minutes in the ring, converting two-thirds of them while having never been taken down himself as a professional.

As mentioned earlier, once Weidman got Silva on to the mat, he kept him there for some time, with Silva only managing to get up when Weidman committed himself with a submission attempt. That may have been the result of a questionable tactical decision by Weidman.

Silva possesses a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and hasn’t suffered a submission since the end of 2004. While Silva has a 70% takedown prevention rate, he’s shown weakness in that regard against aggressive wrestlers like Weidman – his first fight against Chael Sonnen would have been a loss were it not for a tactical error on Sonnen’s part.

This suggests Weidman could have gone to that approach more than once. It seems like repeated Weidman takedowns resulting in a lopsided judge’s decision could be a legitimate path to victory.

The Intangibles

While we generally applaud heavy data use for finding patterns in competitive chaos, there are times where they don’t tell the entire story; here are a number of intangibles to consider:

Silva’s looked bored in his last few fights, a pattern leading to the lapse in concentration that cost him his title.

The post-fight interview in which Silva waved off the rematch option suggested his competitive fire was waning.

Silva signed a 10-fight deal prior to UFC 162 that White called “A Floyd Mayweather Jr. contract.” He’s getting paid regardless of the championship.

As great as Silva has been, he’s now 38-years-old. One wonders if time may have caught up.

A champion has regained a title from a champion who defeated them for it only twice.

For all of Silva’s greatness, Weidman was winning their first match even before the knockout, and seems to be possess the perfect combination of skills to challenge Silva: Superior wrestling with the striking to make it difficult to defend against.

While Weidman’s resume is short by comparison, it’s unblemished. We still don’t know how good he is.

To make an educated bet on this match, you’ll want to know the data and watch the lead-up. Silva’s posture, his demeanor, reports on his training regime, discussion of legacy… they should all contribute to your decision in what looks to be a unique betting opportunity on a unique fight…and a historic one.

Should Anderson Silva be the favourite? The question is more convoluted than ever before. The smartest bettors in the world bet at Pinnacle Sports and the market they’ve created suggests that he is. The question you need to answer is whether you think they’re inside Anderson Silva’s head before the toughest psychological test of his UFC career.

You can bet on Anderson Silva or Chris Weidman and the other fights at UFC 168 here.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

понедельник, 16 декабря 2013 г.

Hosts Brazil favourites to win Group A

Hosts Brazil favourites to win Group A

By Michael Gales Dec 16, 2013

Tweet

World Cup 2014 hosts Brazil are favourites to qualify from Group A ahead of Croatia, Mexico and Cameroon. Can Brazil manage expectations and qualify for the knockout stage or is there a major upset in store?

Brazil: Big favourites to progress

Fifa Ranking: 10th

Best Finish: Winners (1958, 1962, 1970, 1994 & 2002)

Overall Miles to travel: 2,523^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 3.950*

2014 World Cup hosts Brazil are the 3.950* favourites to lift the trophy for a sixth time. With the soccer mad nation desperate to see their samba stars win on home soil, can the Seleo manage expectations?

They performed well in the Confederations Cup – known as the World Cup rehearsal – beating a Spanish side that had claimed the last three major international tournaments.

But this is not the real thing, and the Samba Boys will undoubtedly be compared to their compatriots in 1950 – the last time Brazil hosted the tournament – who lost to Uruguay in the final. However, bettors should be aware as to how much relevance they place on historical data, after all there is 64 years between the two Brazilian World Cups.

Nevertheless the hosts are massive 1.040* favourites to progress through a relatively easy looking group. They have only failed to advance from the group stages twice – 1930 & 1966 – and have reached the final in three of the last five World Cups.  Brazil also have a 100% record against all three of their Group A opponents in previous World Cup meetings.

The ultimate question still remains; will they prosper with a home field advantage or buckle under the strain?

Brazil’s record against Group A opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Croatia

1

0

1

50%

Mexico

16

8

4

57%

Cameroon

3

1

0

75%

Croatia: Lack of goals could be an issue

Fifa Ranking: 16th

Best Finish: 3rd (1998)

Overall Miles to travel: 3,429^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 151.000*

Croatia are the 2.140* second-favourites to qualify for the knockout stages of the World Cup for the first time since 1998 – the first World Cup they entered as Croatia, having previously competed as part of Yugoslavia.

Apart from France 1998, where they finished third, Croatia have been eliminated in the group stages in 2002 and 2006, while they failed to qualify at all for the 2010 World Cup.

After finishing second behind Belgium in qualifying, Croatia needed the playoffs to confirm their place in the tournament where they beat Iceland 2-0 on aggregate.

Former Croatia captain Niko Kovac was appointed manager in October following the resignation of Igor Stimac. With little management experience – Kovac had only become Croatia’s under-21 boss in January – and little time in charge of his nation, will this inexperience affect them at the elite level?

Kovac will look to address Croatia’s issues in front of goal after they were one of two teams not to score more than twice in qualification, and scored just 1.17 goals per game in qualification – the lowest average for nations who have qualified.

To add to their problems, star striker Mario Mandzukic is suspended for the start of the tournament after being shown a straight red card against Iceland.

Croatia have never played Cameroon, but in their two World Cup fixtures against Brazil and Mexico in 2006 and 2002 respectively, they lost both.

3,429 miles is the distance Croatia will travel during their three Group A games, the second highest of any group. Could this gruelling schedule prove pivotal in deciding whether or not they qualify for the knockout stages?

Croatia’s record against Group A opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Brazil

0

1

1

0%

Mexico

2

1

0

66%

Cameroon

0

0

0

0%

Mexico: Chaotic qualifying campaign leaves more questions than answers

Fifa Ranking: 20th

Best Finish: Quarter-Finals (1970 & 1986)

Overall Miles to travel: 662^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 121.000*

Mexico slipped six places in the Fifa Rankings after a turbulent qualifying campaign that left a number of unanswered questions. Not only did they use 47 players, but they also had four different managers.

Miguel Herrera became Mexico’s fourth coach when he was appointed in October to take charge for the play-off against New Zealand. Interestingly Herrera opted to call-up only domestic-based players in the play-off, but is expected to recall the likes of Javier Hernandez and co. for the finals.

El Tri qualified with a 9-3 demolition of New Zealand, but were all but out of the chance to be in the play-offs before a late comeback from the USA against Panama on the final day of qualifying saved them from elimination.

Bettors should be aware that Mexico scored 35% of their goals in the final 15 minutes of games in qualification but took no points from losing positions.

Mexico may have to endure some of the highest temperatures during their World Cup Group A games, but they have the advantage in terms of travel; they will only travel 662 miles, which is much shorter than anyone else in their group. How much of an advantage will this prove to be?

There is undoubted quality within their playing pool and odds of 2.380* suggest despite their recent turmoil the bookmakers at Pinnacle Sports still believe they have a reasonable chance of progressing out of the group stages for the sixth successive time.

Mexico’s record against Group A opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Brazil

8

16

4

28%

Croatia

1

2

0

34%

Cameroon

1

0

0

100%

Cameroon: Off the field issues overshadow lack of quality

Fifa Ranking: 51st

Best Finish: Quarter-Finals (1990)

Overall Miles to travel: 2,922^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: N/A

After a less than smooth qualification campaign Cameroon are the 5.110* Group A outsiders to qualify for the knockout stages.

Not only have Cameroon failed to qualify for the last two Africa Cup of Nations, their team has been shrouded in controversy following a row between players and Cameroon’s football federation – the Cameroon football federation was briefly suspended by Fifa in July because of government interference.

During qualifying Cameroon topped their first group – despite losing were awarded a win against Togo who had fielded a suspended player – and went on to beat Tunisia 4-1 on aggregate in the play-offs. However, more issues arose during the game with Tunisia when captain Samuel Eto’o claimed that players refused to pass him the ball following a fall out with coach Volker Finke.

Brazil 2014 will be Cameroon’s seventh World Cup appearance – an African record – but have only won one game since reaching the quarter-finals of 1990.

Can Cameroon overcome their issues off the field and live up to their nickname, the Indomitable Lions, or will they fail to get out of the group stages again?

Cameroon’s record against Group A opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Brazil

1

3

0

25%

Croatia

0

0

0

0%

Mexico

0

0

1

0%

^ This is the overall number of miles each nation will travel during the group stages from their selected base camp.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup futures odds.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup match odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Spain, Netherlands and Chile face-off in Tough Group B

Spain, Netherlands and Chile face-off in Tough Group B

By Michael Gales Dec 16, 2013

Tweet

Defending champions Spain are the Group B favourites ahead of the Netherlands, Chile and Australia. With three teams ranked inside the top 15, two will progress to the knockout stage, and one will be sent home, but who will they be?

Spain: Defending champions favourites in Group B

Fifa Ranking: 1st

Best Finish: Winners (2010)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,172^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 8.340*

Defending champions Spain are the 1.208* favourites to qualify out of a tough Group B which includes Chile, Netherlands and Australia.

Despite experiencing defeat to Brazil in the Confederations Cup final, they still have an excess of talent at their disposal, and are fourth favourites at 8.340* to lift a second successive World Cup and become only the third side after Italy and Brazil to do so.

The holders emerged unbeaten over their eight qualifying matches, scoring 14 and conceding just three. They conceded the fewest goals (0.38 on average per game), were the only side not to be in a losing position and one of only seven nations to score in every game.

Spain’s possession-based football, coupled with their determination to retain the ball when they don’t have it, has been wearing down their opposition for the best part of a decade. With the heat and humidity expected to be an issue in Brazil, how vital could this philosophy be?

One thing that may be stacked against Spain is that no European team has won the World Cup in South America. In their three World Cup appearances in South America to date they have finished fourth in Brazil (1950) but were eliminated in the group stages back in 1962 and 1978. Having said that they are considered the best team in the world after winning the last three major tournament

Spain’s record against Group B opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Chile

4

0

1

80%

Netherlands

5

4

1

50%

Australia

0

0

0

0%

Netherlands: How good are they?

Fifa Ranking: 9th

Best Finish: Runners-up (1974, 1978 & 2010)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,960^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 25.000*

Despite being offered as the 1.526* second favourites to progress from Group B the Netherlands arrive at another major tournament with a level of uncertainty surrounding them. After losing in extra time in the 2010 final to Group B opponents Spain, they went to Euro 2012 as one of the favourites but were eliminated without a point.

Louis Van Gaal – who won domestic titles at Ajax, Barcelona, Bayern Munich and AZ Alkmaar  – was hired as manager after Euro 2012. He guided the Netherlands to nine wins from ten games – scoring 34 goals and conceding just five – with a 2-2 draw against Estonia denying them a perfect record. However, the Oranje had one of the easiest groups as none of their opponents were ranked in Fifa’s Top 30.

Despite the Dutch finishing 2013 unbeaten and scoring plenty of goals that achievement is less impressive when you look at their opponents, which leaves bettors unaware as to how good they actually are.

Another question that needs answering is whether a front four consisting of Arjen Robben (29), Robin van Persie (30), Wesley Sneijder (29) and Rafael van Der Vaart (30) is at its peak or a declining force?

Netherlands’ record against Group B opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Spain

4

5

1

40%

Chile

0

0

0

0%

Australia

0

1

2

0%

Chile: Expect plenty of goals

Fifa Ranking: 15th

Best Finish: 3rd (1968)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,203^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 41.000*

Despite being drawn in a tough group Chile will expect to cause an upset and progress to the knockout stages. Odds of 2.140* suggest this feat is not an impossible task.

Chile qualified third after struggling midway through the campaign that saw them lose four consecutive matches. Jorge Sampaoli was appointed coach and they subsequently recovered to win five of their last six games. During qualifying Chile scored 29 but also conceded 25 – an average of 1.56 per game, the highest of any team who qualified.

As they demonstrated in the 2-0 win against England in November coach Jorge Sampaoli has Chile playing an expansive style of football combined with aggressive pressing.

The Chileans progression under Sampaoli is evident given that they are the fourth highest movers in the Fifa rankings in the last year moving up from 21st to 15th. This is only the third time they have qualified in the last eight World Cups, but they did reach the last 16 in 1998 and 2010.

La Roja certainly have the potential to progress out of Group B, but with a small pool of players to select from, they have to keep their best XI fit.

Chile’s record against Group B opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Spain

0

4

1

00%

Netherlands

0

0

0

0%

Australia

1

0

1

50%

Australia: A team in transition

Fifa Ranking: 59th

Best Finish: Round of 16 (2006)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,381^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 201.000*

Australia are the lowest ranked team in the World Cup having dropped from 33rd to 59th in a year and odds of 8.400* suggest the Socceroos will find it difficult to qualify for the next stage.

If the draw wasn’t tough enough, the Socceroos will endure the biggest temperature swings during the group stages from game-to-game.

Now competing as an Asian Football Federation member they qualified automatically behind Japan but their passage to Brazil was not the easiest. After failing to win in their first three games they went unbeaten over the last five and secured their place in the final game.

By qualifying Australia have reached their third successive finals. They reached the last 16 in 2006 but lost in stoppage-time to eventual winners Italy, while they were eliminated in the Group stage of 2010.

With coach Ange Postecoglou given the remit to develop younger players, expect the squad to be made up of untested players with an eye on the 2016 World Cup.

Australia’s record against Group B opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Spain

0

0

0

0%

Chile

0

1

1

0%

Netherlands

1

0

2

33%

^ This is the overall number of miles each nation will travel during the group stages from their selected base camp.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup futures odds.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup match odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

среда, 11 декабря 2013 г.

Are Man City undervalued on the handicap against Arsenal?

Are Man City undervalued on the handicap against Arsenal?

By Michael Gales Dec 11, 2013

Tweet

Man City and Arsenal go head-to-head at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday bringing together the EPL’s best home and away sides. More important for handicap bettors Arsenal lead the Pinnacle Sports Handicap table, but with City’s recent ruthless home form, is their -0.5 handicap an undervaluation?

City undervalued at home on the handicap

Results wise the Etihad Stadium plays host on Saturday to the best away – Arsenal – and home – Man City – sides in the Premier League. City have a 100% home record from their seven games, while Arsenal have won 71% of their away fixtures.

Despite their eye-catching form, Handicap bettors should be more interested to see how both teams perform in the Pinnacle Sports handicap table, with Man City set as the -0.5  at 1.820* handicap favourites and Arsenal on +0.5 at 2.140*.

Arsenal top the table after covering 73.3% of their Premier League games this season, while Manchester City are struggling in mid-table having covered less than half (46.7%) of their games. This highlights that Arsenal’s handicap results are as good as their straight up form, while City’s performance in the EPL is better than their handicap performance.

The Citizens have covered 87% of their games at the Etihad

With City playing at home, however it is important to look at their record against the spread on home soil. The Citizens have covered 87% of their games at the Etihad – with the 2-0 win against Hull recorded as a push. In addition to highlighting their Jekyll and Hyde performances, this number shows bookmakers have undervalued them on the handicap at home this season, but for how long?

With the Gunners performing better than anyone against the spread this season, it doesn’t come as a big surprise to see they have covered an impressive 71% of their away games – failing to cover in a 1-1 draw with WBA and the 1-0 defeat at Manchester United.

Factors affecting the handicap

Before betting on the Man City Arsenal handicap there are a number of other factors to consider.

While Arsenal’s record on the road is fantastic, the 71% covering rate is not as impressive when you look at the quality of opposition they have played.

Apart from Manchester United – their only defeat on the road– they haven’t played any team in the top half of the table, while four of their seven away games have been against Sunderland, Crystal Palace, Fulham and Cardiff, who are 20th, 19th, 18th and 16th respectively.

Handicap bettors must decide if Arsenal’s dominance against the smaller teams is deceptive and whether they will struggle against stronger teams like United and City, while deciding how much this reflected in the 0.5 handicap.

Manchester City in comparison have played four of the top nine at the Etihad already and covered the spread in all four games, registering victories of 4-0, 4-1, 3-1 and 6-0. City’s home form has been so impressive they average 4.14 and concede 0.29 goals per game, which is an overall home goal difference average of 3.85 goals.

This is even more impressive when you compare their record to Chelsea who are the second best performing team at home in the Premier League but have an overall home goal difference average of 1.57 goals.

With their total supremacy at home so far against quality opposition, do City have more desire when playing better opposition? If so, is the -0.5 handicap stingy, given their previous results at home?

Another factor to consider is both teams will have played Champions League football in mid-week in Italy and Germany.

With travel distances and times relatively similar, will the fact Arsenal play three games in seven days have a bigger impact on their squad than City who play three games in eight?  The schedule also appears kinder to City who will have an extra days rest ahead of the game on Saturday as they play on Tuesday compared to Wednesday for the Gunners.

When setting their own handicap for the game bettors should ask themselves how much of an advantage are those extra days rest for City? More than 0.5 goals?

Given Man City’s home form on the handicap and Arsenal’s lack of quality opposition on the road, bettors must decide if the -0.5 handicap is once more undervaluing City, or if their run will come to an abrupt end? Depending on which way you answer this question will ultimately decide the way you bet.

Click here for the latest Man City vs Arsenal odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

вторник, 10 декабря 2013 г.

Factors to consider before selecting a World Cup Golden Boot winner

Factors to consider before selecting a World Cup Golden Boot winner

By Michael Gales Dec 10, 2013

Tweet

Odds for the 2014 World Cup Golden Boot can be inflated; so betting on the winner can prove profitable. Choosing the winner, however, requires more than simply identifying the best striker. This article investigates a number of factors to consider before selecting the 2014 World Cup Golden Boot winner.

The importance of the draw

One of the main factors to consider when picking the 2014 World Cup Golden Boot winner is the group that the player’s nation has been drawn in. The draw highlights which teams have the weaker groups or an easier passage to the final once qualified.

Being drawn in a group with one or more perceived weaker nations is an ideal opportunity for a player to score the main proportion of their goals in the tournament. This cannot be underestimated; not only will a player expect to have more chances when playing against weak opposition, but in scoring goals early in the tournament he will gain confidence for the remainder of the World Cup.

Looking at data since the 1986 World Cup there is clear evidence that the winner of the Golden Boot scores the majority of their goals in the group stages. In analysing whether the previous eight Golden Boot winners – 1994 saw Oleg Salenko and Hristo Stoichkov share the award – scored a higher percentage of their goals in the group or knockout stage, we looked at each players minute played to goals scored average in each stage.

The results highlight that despite playing fewer minutes; the Golden Boot winners scored more goals (26) at a better average (a goal every 71 minutes) in the group stages than the knockout stages (22 goals, scoring a goal every 100.8 minutes).

World Cup progression

The completion of the 2014 World Cup draw makes it possible to predict the likely route a Golden Boot candidate’s nation will take, thereby assess how far you think their nation will go and goal-scoring opportunities.

Each nation will play a minimum of three games and a maximum of seven if they reach the semi-final. This is important, as all Golden Boot winners’ nations – apart from Oleg Salenko’s Russia in 1994 – have progressed into the knockout stages. Pitch time clearly equates to goals.

Since 1986, six of the last eight Golden Boot winners – including Salenko – have played seven games, however just one has reached the final, with the other five finishing their tournament in the third-place playoff.

Historically, the third-place playoff produces more goals than the World Cup final. In the last seven World Cup third-place playoffs, there have been an average of 4.28 goals, compared to two goals in the final.

With no major prize for the third-place playoff teams, is the Golden Boot effectively the greatest motivation for any player involved?

Team tactics & motivation

Understanding the tactics and style of play a nation employs is vital when picking a potential Golden Boot winner. Nations that create more chances are more likely to have the winner of the Golden Boot in their squad. The last winners have played for the World Cup’s highest scoring teams.

The last winners have played for the World Cup’s highest scoring teams

A team must also play to the player’s strengths. Just because a player is prolific for his club side doesn’t mean he is guaranteed to score plenty on the International stage. For instance Uruguay’s Edinson Cavani is considered amongst the best strikers in the world scoring on average a goal every 1.34 games since 2010 for his respective club teams, but on the international stage he struggles, finding the net on average every three games. One reason is that Cavani is instructed to lead the line and act as a foil for Luis Suarez 17.000* – who scores a goal every 1.82 games for Uruguay.

Bettors must also consider motivational factors. National managers have little specific interest in their player winning the Golden Boot award (except perhaps for the third-place Playoff, or in a game where they are winning comfortably and there is a penalty); they are solely determined, as are the other players, to win the World Cup.

If a team is winning comfortably they may substitute their star striker, or rest them if they have already qualified from the group with a game remaining. A game missed through being rested against weaker opposition, could be detrimental to their chances of winning the Golden Boot.

Set piece specialists & favourites 

On average it requires six goals to claim the World Cup Golden Boot. Players taking free kicks and penalties are more prolific, which can make all the difference between winning the award and not.

Looking back at the last seven World Cups, the Golden Boot winners have scored 14.5% (7) of their goals from penalties, while just 2% (1) of winners’ goals came from free kicks. This shows that being a team’s penalty taker could prove decisive, like it was for Hristo Stoichkov in 1994 who scored three (50%) of his goals from the penalty spot. Interestingly, Sergio Aguero 19.000* has never taken a penalty in regular time for Argentina.

Golden Boot Contenders

Striker

Nationality

Caps

Goals

Games Per Goal

Penalties

Penalty Success

Neymar

Brazil

46

27

1.7

4

100%

Higuain

Argentina

35

20

1.75

1

100%

Suarez

Uruguay

71

39

1.82

6

100%

Van Persie

Holland

79

41

1.92

5

100%

Messi

Argentina

83

37

2.24

9

88%

Ronaldo

Portugal

109

47

2.31

6

83%

Rooney

England

88

38

2.31

2

100%

Balotelli

Italy

29

12

2.41

4

100%

Aguero

Argentina

46

19

2.42

0

0%

Falcao

Colombia

50

20

2.5

5

80%

Benteke

Belgium

17

6

2.83

0

0%

Muller

Germany

47

16

2.93

0

0%

Cavani

Uruguay

60

20

3

1

100%

Ozil

Germany

52

17

3.05

4

100%

Hazard

Belgium

42

5

8.4

4

75%

Bettors may be drawn to the three heavy favourites Cristiano Ronaldo 15.000*, Lionel Messi 8.800* and Neymar 13.000*. However, apart from the Brazilian Ronaldo in 2002, none of the other seven Golden Boot winners have been majorly fancied to lift the trophy before the start.

Luck can also play a part in winning the Golden Boot award. In a domestic season there are 38 games with the best teams/strikers more likely to dominate. In contrast the World Cup tournament is played over a maximum of seven games, so unusual results should be expected. Luck could have played a part for Salenko in 1994. Not only did the striker score five of his six goals against Cameroon in the final group game, but they were his only ever international goals.

Intriguingly, of the eight most recent winners, all but Ronaldo (Brazil 2002) have been European, while Thomas Muller became the first midfielder to win the Golden Boot in the modern era in 2010.

Picking the 2014 World Cup Golden Boot winner is not simply a task of identifying the best striker. Instead bettors must consider a number of factors such as the impact of the draw, the likelihood their nation will progress deep into the tournament, the tactics their respective national teams employ and luck. By doing so bettors will be in a better position to make an informed bet in picking the 2014 World Cup Golden Boot winner.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup Golden Boot winner odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.