What you should consider before betting on F1

What you should consider before betting on F1

By Michael Gales Feb 25, 2014

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This Formula One betting guide informs bettors what to consider before betting on F1.  By researching key variables – driver value, grid position & track characteristics etc. – you can increase your chance of making an F1 betting profit.

Importance grid position varies from track to track

Driver position has varying importance depending on the track in question. For instance qualifying on pole at Monza has guaranteed a race win in 80% of races in the last decade, compared to the Canadian GP at Montreal where just 30% of drivers on pole went on to win.

For circuits where it’s difficult to overtake – Monaco – bettors should consider a drivers ability to qualify high on the grid – where starting on pole can be a huge advantage. In comparison circuits that are easier to overtake at  – Montreal for instance – give the bettor more chance of finding value when not betting on pole sitters.

Understanding the value of track position is vital in Formula One betting, selecting a race winner before considering historical data should be avoided, instead, study the track history to gauge an understanding of what will likely happen.

This article looks at how reliable qualifying is as a race indicator? The data highlighted there was a good correlation between qualifying and final race positions in the 20 races of the 2012 Formula One season. However despite proving that there is a relationship between qualifying and finishing position, it is not, on its own, enough to generate an edge.

Understanding the affect of tyres is vital

Tyres are vitally important in Formula One. Understanding tyre characteristics, how they perform around specific tracks, and how the cars and drivers compliment the tyres is significant when selecting a race winner.

Formula One bettors should understand a teams’ strategy regarding tyres. Each driver is allowed a set number of tyres per race weekend. A team may save tyres for race day instead of using them during free practice and qualifying, which may make the difference between winning a race and not.

Driver style is also important. Knowing which drivers – Jenson Button – can conserve tyres while driving at a fast speed, and which – Lewis Hamilton – wear their tyres down with an aggressive style, should be considered.

Since returning to the sport as the tyre manufacturer two years ago, Pirelli have produced unpredictable tyres, which has created more excitement and overtaking opportunities, but ultimately made understanding tyre characteristics more vital for betting.

Last year the tyres came under heavy criticism for their lack of durability, however Pirelli motorsport director Paul Hembery stated in February ” Although the teams are still at a comparatively early point on the development curve with their new cars, testing data so far indicates that the 2014 tyres are more consistent and durable than their predecessors.”

Don’t underestimate Mother Nature (weather)

Formula One bettors should always check the weather forecast before and adjust their betting on qualifying and the race accordingly. When the conditions are fine and the track hot, weather has little impact. However, once the track temperatures drop and the rain arrives it can cause havoc with the result.

Researching weather history is important as most Grand Prix occur at a similar time in the schedule as previously. The Belgian GP for example is renowned for it’s variable weather conditions. Knowing the chance of rain before can help you select drivers who are known to perform well in the rain  – Jenson Button and avoid drivers who are not – rookie drivers.

Recognize circuit characteristics

Understanding the circuit characteristics and matching them with driver and car capabilities is fundamental when betting on Formula One. Circuits with long straights and fewer turns suit cars with excellent top speed.

Each circuit is distinctive, and should be treated different as each offers new challenges. Take the Bahrain GP for instance; this Middle Eastern circuit has a number of key characteristics that will present a different challenge for the teams than at other circuits.

The track is made up of four long straights, all of which end in a high braking zone, offering clear overtaking opportunities. There are also a number of challenging medium-speed corners that require good car balance. Therefore the track suits a set-up that sees a compromise between straight-line speed and cornering grip.

With drivers at full throttle for just 50% of the lap during the race (and 57% in qualifying), the demands on the engine are less extensive than half of the courses on the calendar.

Although the throttle might not be an issue, high temperature and low humidity could provide major challenges for the engines, while the circuit’s stop-start nature places a premium on the brakes – managing brake-wear is key.

Once you understand the track characteristics bettors should check practice and qualifying times to see which drivers and teams have their car dialed-in, and who doesn’t. Once bettors have gauged the track diagnostics and understood who are best set-up to perform you can consider who to bet on.

Team Strategies

Team strategy is fundamental in F1 and bettors should be fully aware of who influences what happens on the track. Teams always look to gain an edge over their opposition through tyre tactics, car set-up or tactical pitstops. But they also implement team orders.

For instance if two drivers from the same team are close during a Grand Prix one can be ordered to allow their teammate to overtake – Felipe Massa was instructed to let Fernando Alonso pass at the 2010 German GP – or hold back and secure the position they are in rather than go for an overtake – Nico Rosberg was given team orders to not overtake Lewis Hamilton at the Malaysian GP last season despite being much quicker.

To prevent team orders affecting bettors they should play close attention to the standings for both the drivers’ and constructors’ championships. Understanding who are the number one drivers in each team will help you decide which number two drivers to avoid – knowing his teammate will be favoured.

Study the new Rule Changes

Keeping up-to-date and understanding the latest Formula One rules is paramount for successful betting. The FIA constantly make rule changes to keep the sport exciting.  These rules can benefit or hurt specific teams and the same can be said for your betting, so bettors should keep track of the rule changes happening pre-season, and during the F1 calendar.

Remember knowledge is key to successful F1 betting

It is important to think of the bigger picture when betting on Formula One, a racing incident/ bad pitstop or technical failure may have undone your thorough research for that race, but it’s only one race. To be successful, F1 bettors must consider how they perform over five or more seasons.

With Formula One culpable to a number of outliers such as weather, track characteristics, race strategy, tyre degradation and racing incidents, bettors informed decision-making, rather than just picking a winner on gut feeling, should undoubtedly translate into a significantly higher winning percentage.

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