Are West Ham undervalued again against the Handicap?

Are West Ham undervalued again against the Handicap?

By Michael Gales Feb 27, 2014

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West Ham travel to play Everton on Saturday in the Premier League and handicap bettors should be aware that if the Hammers cover the +1 spread, they would have done so for the sixth EPL game in succession – an EPL record this season – while if the Toffees fail, they will have done so for a seventh straight game.

Can West Ham surprise the bookmakers again?

So far across the whole of this season West Ham have performed slightly under bookmaker expectations covering the spread in 44.4% of Premier League games. At home the Hammers have covered in just 35.7% of games, while their statistics improve on the road to 53.8%.

Handicap bettors should, however play close attention to the Hammers’ recent form as they have covered in five consecutive games. This is significant because the highest number of successive games any team has covered in the EPL this season is five – Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton and Southampton.

Given that the Irons failed to cover in seven consecutive EPL matches just two games prior to the start of their current streak, highlights that the bookmakers are having difficulty handicapping them.

Some mitigation for West Ham’s terrible run of failing to cover could be drawn from their drastic injury and suspension crisis with no less than 11 first team players out injured, including the majority of their recognised defenders.

West Ham’s success on the road has been based on their solid defence.  The Hammers have conceded just 14 goals in 13 away games at an average of 0.86 goals per game, which is impressive. However if you take out the data during the crisis mentioned above – four successive away defeats – they have conceded just four in nine games, at an incredible average of just 0.4 goals per game.

Is West Ham’s recent handicap form – now the players have returned from suspension and injury – an indication they are regressing to their mean, which may be the reason the bookmaker has undervalued their relative strength in recent weeks?

With the handicap set at +1 goals (2.050*), and considering their excellent away performances this season – they have kept a clean sheet in 53.8% of games – bettors must decide if West Ham have once more been undervalued by the bookmakers?

Everton not great for a handicap bettor

Everton may have performed well in the Premier League so far this season, but it’s a different story on the Pinnacle Sports handicap table.

The Toffees are 18th in the EPL handicap table after covering just a mere 38.5% of the time. The Blues’ record at Goodison Park (41.7%) is slightly better than their cover percentage on the road (35.7%). These handicap statistics show that for handicap bettors Everton have offered little value.

Looking at their home form highlights the differential between Everton’s 1×2 performance and handicap results. The Toffees have won eight of their 12 EPL games but have only covered the spread in five.

Whilst West Ham have covered five games in a row, Everton are in the opposite run of form having failed to cover the handicap in their last five games. Manchester United hold the record for the longest streak this season without covering the spread, however their eight game run occurred at the start of the season, when bookmakers have less of a gauge on team strength.

With bookmakers currently struggling to correctly gauge both teams’ relative strength, bettors must decide whether Everton have been overvalued again at Goodison given their -1 (1.893*) handicap and West Ham’s current defensive form on the road. Either way one significant handicap streak will come to an end on Saturday.

Click here to see the latest Premier League handicap betting odds.

*Odds subject to change

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