How Fighters Respond to Championship Bout Hangover

How Fighters Respond to Championship Bout Hangover

By Gary Wise Feb 26, 2014

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On March 8th, 2014, Alexander Gustafsson fights for the 1st time since his historic clash with Jon Jones for the Light Heavyweight title, as he takes on undefeated Jimi Manuwa at UFC Fight Night London. Curious about how fighters respond after losing a title fight, our research discovered some important trends for bettors.

The Theory

Given that a fighter has to be good to be granted a title shot, and that losing to a UFC champion almost certainly means a downgrade in caliber of competition for the following fight, title fight losers (TFLs) should perform well coming off title fight losses.

The counter argument is that damage taken in a loss can hurt a fighter psychologically, and the lack of a goal that transcends mere victory and money (like winning a championship), once experienced, can make it difficult to train and fight with the intensity to match a title run.

To this effect, we looked at the results of every fight fought in the UFC by immediate TFLs to see if there are patterns that should affect your MMA betting. Note that the below chart includes post-interim title fight losses as we’re more interested in the conditions and culture than the technicality; the interim title is a valuable commodity and inter-TFLs are till dealing with the pain of coming close.  Note also that we did not know how the records would play out. This was as much a learning experience for us as it will be for you as you look at the results:

Weight Class (abbreviation – maximum weight)

Post-Title Fight Record

Champions

Challengers

Heavyweight (HW – 265 lbs)

16-15-1

5-9

11-6-1

Light Heavyweight (LHW – 205 lbs)

21-10-2

5-5

16-5-2

Middleweight (MW – 185 lbs)

11-7

2-2

9-5

Welterweight (WW – 170 lbs)

15-10-3

4-2

11-8-3

Lightweight (LW – 155 lbs)

10-6*

2-2**

8-4

Featherweight (FW – 145 lbs)

2-1

0-0

2-1

Bantamweight (BW – 135 lbs)

5-0-1

0-0

5-0-1

Flyweight (FLW – 125 lbs)

3-0

0-0

3-0

Women’s Bantamweight (WBW – 135 lbs)

2-0

0-0

2-0

Superfight Championship

3-0

1-0

2-0

Totals: 88-49-7   19-20   69-29-7

* Does not include the draw between BJ Penn and Caol Uno at UFC 41 for the vacant belt. For the record, Penn won his next match, while Uno lost his.

** Includes Gilbert Meledez, who held the Strikeforce title belt before that organization was taken over by the UFC, where he immediately fought Ben Henderson in an unofficial title unification match. Melendez won his next fight.

Divisional Notes

A few things worth noting about divisional records:

Heavyweight

No champion has defended more than 3 times, indicating the volatility of the class. Similarly, TFLs also couldn’t string together more then 3 consecutive rebound wins.

Light Heavyweight

Through UFC 43, LHW title contenders went 0-12 in title fights. They went 9-2 (with one fighter retiring after failing to claim the title) in their follow-ups. Note of interest; champions lost the next four title fights after that run.

Welterweight

Through UFC 69, TFLs went 11-2-3 in their follow-up fights. They’ve gone 3-7 since.

Lightweight

Through UFC 101, TFLs  went 6-1 in their follow up fights. It was two LW title fights later when a LW champion lost their title in the ring for the first time.

Featherweight, Bantamweight, Flyweight, Women’s Bantamweight

These divisions are all new enough that no defending champion has ever lost a title fight. This clearly skews numbers, which we address below.

Superfight Championship

These headliner fights from the earliest UFCs (6, 8 and 9) have been included for completion’s sake, but have little in common with the modern UFC, as we know it.

Conclusions

Champions seem to have a very difficult time in their first fights after losing. This may be wear and tear, but it’s plausible that the accumulation of wealth and achievement of goals have left them without suitable motivation.

Weight class doesn’t seem to offer much of a variable, except for notable exceptions in numbers amongst defeated HW and LHW champions. It is likely not a coincidence that these fighters typically enjoy shorter careers than those in lighter weight classes. It is generally understood that the heavier the weight class, the greater the damage sustained from fight-to-fight.

In this article posted last week, we looked at outliers in the early development of divisions and concluded that they are to be expected. This research shows us that in addition to those outliers, we should expect a very steep curve in the upper echelons of those same developing competitions, even beyond those outliers. The UFC’s four lesser-developed divisions –Featherweight, Bantamweight, Flyweight and Women’s Bantamweight—have seen TFLs register a 12-1-1 record, with the only loser amongst the fourteen fights (Mark Hominick) retiring without winning another fight. The early stretches of success amongst losing title contenders in the LHW, WW and LW divisions also seem to support this notion.

Combine those early runs and undeveloped divisions and you’re looking at a 38-6-4 record for TFLs. Granted, there’s some cherry picking there, but not a lot; the resulting 50-43-3 record amongst TFLs (36-23-6 amongst losing challengers) in more established divisions coming off their championship loss is far less-compelling than the overall numbers.

How does this reflect on Gustafsson-Manuwa?

Gustafsson is a stud, the #1 contender in the LHW division fighting against #11 Manuwa (going by UFC rankings). That said there are a few factors working against him going into this fight as betting goes. He’s a massive favorite, the 36-23-6 record enjoyed by losing contenders in established divisions doesn’t justify those odds, and losing LHW contenders have gone just 7-6 in follow-up fights since Keith Jardine beat Chuck Liddell in May, 2007.

Manuwa brings a lot of what you want in an underdog; he’s undefeated, a striker by trade, and aggressive. The punchers chance is alive and well. If you believe it is, history tells us you might want to put a few dollars on the underdog. Whichever side you like, you can bet it here.

Click here to see the latest UFC Fight Night London Gustafsson vs. Manuwa Betting odds.

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