Spurs undervalued on the road this season

Spurs undervalued on the road this season

By Michael Gales Feb 20, 2014

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Premier League handicap bettors might be surprised that Tottenham – considered inconsistent – have actually covered in 76.9% of games away from home on the handicap this season. So for Spurs’ game at Norwich on Sunday are the Lilywhites undervalued again as the -0.5 favourites?

Spurs massively undervalued on the road against the spread

Tottenham Hotspur are the third best performing team on the handicap this season covering the spread in 57.7% of games – covering 15, failing in 10 and pushing once (see our EPL Handicap table). However, a closer look at their handicap results shows a big difference between the Lilywhites’ performances at home and on the road.

At White Hart Lane Spurs have covered in just 38.5% of their games – seventh worst in the EPL – compared to an incredible 76.9% on the road – 7.7% more than Chelsea, who boast the second best home record covering the handicap.

Overall, away from home, Tottenham have won nine of their 13 EPL games and covered five of their last six. Since Tim Sherwood was appointed manager in December Tottenham have won four and drawn one of their five away EPL games. So what has changed?

Sherwood immediately changed Spurs’ formation to accommodate two strikers as a consequence of their trouble in front of goal under AVB – just 20 goals at an average of 1.25 per game. The tactical shift has appeared to work as Spurs under Sherwood average 2.1 goals per game. And on the road that goal average rises to 2.6.

Tottenham’s away handicap performance is a testament to their excellent defensive record on the road – conceding on average 1.07 goals per game. However by eradicating their dismal 6-0 defeat at Man City, that average drops to 0.6 per game.

With Tottenham scoring an average of 2.6 goals in their last five games on the road and conceding an average of one, bettors must decide if the -0.5 goal handicap at 2.140* is another underestimation?

Norwich stronger at home against the handicap

Norwich have struggled in the Premier league so far this season and sit 16th in the table just one point above the relegation zone.

Their poor form has been relayed in their performances against the handicap with the Canaries underperforming – covering in just 42.3% of games.

However a closer look at the stats – similar to Spurs – show a discrepancy between their handicap form at home compared to away. The pattern of handcap form is the opposite to Spurs, with Norwich performing much better at home than on the road.

Chris Houghton’s team have marginally exceeded bookmaker expectations at Carrow Road this season by covering in 53.8% of games compared to 30.8% in away games – currently covered twice and pushed once in their last three home matches.

Despite being underdogs in seven games on the handicap at home this season they have covered 57% of the time despite winning just one game straight up.

A major problem for Norwich this season has been their performance in front of goal at home – they are ranked last in the EPL for scoring and have failed to register in 38% of home EPL games – averaging just 0.85 goals per game.

So how have the Canaries performed so well on the spread at home? They may not score many (11), but they don’t concede many either (11) – conceding on average the same as they score per goal 0.85.

Their mean defence sees them ranked as the seventh best at home this season and they haven’t conceded in their last three games at Carrow Road in the Premier League.

With an average of 1.69 goals per game at Carrow road this season – the lowest in the EPL – bettors must decide whether Norwich are once more undervalued at home on the handicap, or if the +0.5 at 1.820* is not enough when they host free scoring Spurs on Sunday?

Click here to see the latest Premier League handicap betting odds.

*Odds subject to change

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