Can Williams win at Roland Garros?

Can Williams win at Roland Garros?

By Dan Weston Feb 7, 2014

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With a number of WTA players currently priced below 50.000, the women’s French Open promises to be more open than the ATP. This preview looks at where the value may be and focuses on the main contenders to help bettors pick a WTA winner.

WTA French Open winner not a formality

As we mentioned in the Australian Open preview, is vital that bettors treat the WTA version (best of three sets) as a completely different betting proposition to the ATP version (best of five sets).  Whilst the men’s competition is a supreme test of fitness, the women’s tournament is no different in match duration to normal events.

Historical trends support the assertion that the event will be quite open with Serena Williams winning the event just once (beating Maria Sharapova in last year’s final).  Furthermore, 12 of the 20 finalists of the last ten years were seeded outside the top five and four finalists (including 2010 winner Francesca Schiavone) were seeded outside the top ten.

12 of the 20 finalists of the last ten years were seeded outside the top five

Even with a historically mediocre (for her) 30-7 tournament record, Williams is currently available as the 2.290* favourite, and based on her overall clay stats in the table below, this would appear very reasonable.   She did not participate in 2011, but lost in the first round to Virginie Razzano, priced 1.010, in 2012, and Sam Stosur (priced 1.486) in the quarter-finals in 2010.  A further worry for Williams backers would be her recent defeat to Ana Ivanovic in the Australian Open and it will be interesting to see how she performs in the warm-up events.

The table below illustrates the incredible statistical dominance of Williams on clay, and covers all players currently priced under 110.00 in the outright markets.

Player

Rank

12 Month Clay W-L Record

12 Month Clay Service Hold %

12 Month Clay Break Opponent %

Combined %

S. Williams

1

28-0

84.4

59.6

144.0

Azarenka

2

10-3

66.4

50.8

117.2

Li Na

3

5-4

62.9

44.4

107.3

Radwanska

4

5-3

63.2

46.7

109.9

Sharapova

5

17-2

76.5

43.9

120.4

Kvitova

6

10-5

67.1

41.6

108.7

Errani

7

20-5

65.3

52.3

117.6

Jankovic

8

21-6

71.9

46.2

118.1

Kerber

9

8-3

71.7

38.6

110.3

Halep

10

16-5

68.3

58.3

121.6

Ivanovic

12

9-4

70.8

43.1

113.9

Cibulkova

13

4-5

60

43.3

103.3

Stosur

16

6-5

70.1

40.6

110.7

Stephens

18

7-5

67.5

34.2

101.7

Bouchard

19

9-5

65.5

45.3

110.8

Williams’ combined hold/break stats are over 22% bigger than her nearest competitor – Simona Halep.  Clearly given full fitness and motivation, she will definitely be the player to beat.

Victoria Azarenka 6.370*, Maria Sharapova 9.540* and Na Li 10.310* are the three players closest to Williams in the current markets and based on last year’s results and stats, Sharapova looks to be the player that can push the world number one the closest here.  However, with Williams winning her last fourteen head to head matches, Sharapova will have to overcome significant mental scars to get past her.

Azarenka, Li & Radwanska

Azarenka’s status as second favourite is probably down to her world ranking and career record (several wins in the last two years) against Williams as opposed to her ability on clay – her stats over last season weren’t hugely impressive for the world number two.

Australian Open winner Na Li will be able to take confidence into Roland Garros but played just four clay court tournaments in 2013.  In those she lost as strong favourite three times, to Madison Keys (1.04), Jelena Jankovic (1.479) and Bethanie Mattek-Sands (1.262).  Having played just nine matches on clay in 2013, her sample is fairly small so going back to 2012 is useful.  Since 2012 she won 16 and lost eight on clay, holding 71.7% and breaking 41.8%, thus generating a combined percentage of 113.5.  This would still put her 7th in the top 10 on clay and it will be difficult for her to consolidate her Australian Open title when considering that.

As mentioned in our Australian Open preview, Agnieszka Radwanska – fifth favourite at 27.55 – has just one Grand Slam final in her career (a loss to Serena Williams in Wimbledon 2012), and as on hard court, the stats show her level to be below the other members of the top five.  Only Petra Kvitova and Na Li had worse clay court stats than the Pole in 2013.  Against top ten opponents on clay, she is a very poor 3-8, with victories over Ivanovic, Schiavone and Li (two as favourite).

There are five further players priced below 50.00 in the outright markets, and it’s worth focusing some attention on those as contenders.

Also worth considering

Simona Halep is the same price as Radwanska currently – 27.550* – and the stats support her claims.  She had some impressive victories on clay last season, winning the events at Nurnburg and Budapest, and getting to the semi-finals of the Rome Premier tournament.  However, her stats may be a little flattered by some dominant wins over poor opponents in low-level events, and with a 6-16 career record against top ten opponents, doubts persist about her ability to compete with the best.

Sloane Stephens and Sam Stosur are both available at 30.210* but the table above indicates that Stosur has much better clay stats than Stephens, holding 2.6% more and breaking 6.4% more on the surface last season.  With Stephens still young, she has plenty of time to improve, but based on current stats it’s hard to make a case for her.

Both Sara Errani and Petra Kvitova are currently priced at 32.850* but they could not be further apart in their overall style – Errani has a weak serve but a superb return game, whereas Kvitova is the complete opposite.  We mentioned in the Australian Open preview that Kvitova’s tendency to play three set matches hinders her in Grand Slam events as the accumulated fatigue this generates will mean she is less fresh than her opponents.  Furthermore, this puts her at risk of elimination in what is effectively a ‘one-set shootout’ more than fellow top 10 players, as witnessed by her shock defeat by Luksika Kumkhum in the Australian Open.

Errani is also much more comfortable on her favoured clay surface, but unlike Kvitova, perhaps lacks the mental strength to beat higher ranked players.  The Italian is a horrific 8-40 against top 10 players in her career.

Best of the rest

Angelique Kerber, Ana Ivanovic, Eugenie Bouchard (all priced currently at 54.050*). Australian Open runner-up Dominika Cibulkova (64.930*) and Jelena Jankovic (96.440*) are the five players priced between 50.00 and 100.00 in the outright markets and with historical trends supporting a lower ranked player making the final, these players cannot be ruled out.

The stats in the table above shows that Jankovic in particular is a threat, and with a 29-11 record in the event, as well as three previous semi-finals, her ability on clay is a given.   It can be argued that clay is Ivanovic’s best surface, and she too can have a good run here.

Finally Eugenie Bouchard has progressed hugely since last season and cannot be written off by any means.  When the tournament starts, she will be just 20-years-old and it’s perhaps this inexperience that will hamper her, but she is without doubt a player of high ability and potential and it will be interesting to see how she progresses.

Click here for the latest WTA French Open odds.

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer who, along with producing expert content for Pinnacle Sports, also produces his own tennis rating system, and trading analysis, which can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk.

*Odds subject to change

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