Betting is life

вторник, 31 декабря 2013 г.

Which Serie A teams are exceeding expectations on the handicap?

By Michael Gales Dec 31, 2013

With the 2013/14 Serie A season now on its annual winter break until January 5th, Pinnacle Sports has gathered this seasons handicap data for bettors to analyse. Juventus may have won 15 of their 17 Serie A games, but have covered the handicap just 29.4%.

The story so far: 2013/14 La Liga handicap table before winter break

The Serie A handicap table below shows how well the Italian teams have performed against expectations so far this season. Instead of looking at the win-loss-draw performance of each team, the table highlights the teams that have exceeded expectation or under-performed – a vital tool for Serie A soccer betting.

2013/14 Serie A Handicap table

Team

Handicap Position

Serie A Position

Difference

Cover %

Home Cover %

Away Cover %

Napoli

70.6%

77.8%

62.5%

Udinese

70.6%

100%

44%

Parma

64.7%

77.8%

50.0%

Lazio

58.8%

100%

22.2%

Bologna

+12

52.9%

66.7%

37.5%

Genoa

52.9%

62.5%

44.4%

Verona

-1

52.9%

55.6%

50.0%

Sassuolo

+10

52.9%

50.0%

55.6%

Roma

-7

47.1%

22.2%

75%

Catania

+10

47.1%

75.0%

22.2%

Sampdoria

47.1%

11.1%

87.5%

Torino

-5

47.1%

66.7%

25.0%

Atalanta

41.2%

62.5%

22.2%

Chievo

41.2%

25.0%

55.6%

Fiorentina

-11

41.2%

25.0%

55.6%

Inter

-11

41.2%

44.4%

37.5%

Livorno

41.2%

44.4%

37.5%

Juventus

-17

29.4%

12.5%

44.4%

Cagliari

-7

23.5%

11.1%

37.5%

AC Milan

-7

17.6%

25.0%

11.1%

Napoli & Udinese: Both performing far above bookmaker expectations

Napoli and Udinese have covered 70.6% of their games this season and lead the way in the Serie A Pinnacle Sports handicap table – they are 5.9% better off than Parma in third and covered 11.8% more than Lazio in fourth.

Napoli are third in Serie A under Rafa Benitez but despite trailing leaders Juventus by 10-points they have been a handicappers dream this season. Gli Azzurri have covered the handicap 77.8% (3rd best) of their games at home and on the road an impressive 62.5% (3rd best). This showcases that Napoli have consistently performed above expectations both home and away this season.

Udinese – eighth in Serie A – in comparison have had contrasting form on the handicap when playing at home compared to away. The Bianconeri have been exceptional at home on the handicap this season covering in all eight games at the Stadio Friuli despite losing three. On the road however they have under-performed slightly from the bookmakers expectations covering in just 44.4% of those games.

Bettors would be well advised to monitor the handicap values at both Napoli and Udinese to recognize when either are overvalued as a result of their performances against the spread thus far.

Juventus & Milan: Two to avoid for handicap bettors

Juventus hold a five-point advantage – losing just once – at the top of Serie A and have won their last nine games as they go in search of their third successive Scudetto.

Despite being in such good form, handicap bettors will be interested to know that the Bianconeri have covered the spread in just 29.4% of games (3rd worst). Their form at home against the spread is so poor they have covered in just 12.5% of their games at The Juventus Stadium despite winning all eight games. On the road Juventus’ cover percentage increases to 44.4% but have still under-performed slightly.

Juventus’ overall performance against the handicap this season underlines an opportunity for bettors to make a profit betting against them on the spread, despite the Serie A leaders wining all but two of their 17 Serie A games – an option which could prove more profitable than backing them to win on the 12 market.

AC Milan are one of the most prestigious teams in Italy with 18 Serie A titles. The Rossoneri’s haven’t finished outside the top three of Serie A since the 2007-08 season but find themselves struggling in 13th – 17 points from third.

With such poor performances this season it isn’t surprising that Milan are the worst performing team against the spread this season covering in a measly 17.6% (3 matches) of games – 25% at home and 11.1% (worst in the division) on the road.

With bookmakers obviously overvaluing the Rossoneri’s strength in the first half of the season, the key question is by how much? Answering this question could prove profitable as the bookmaker reacts to their handicap form, creating an opportunity for them to be undervalued in the future.

Sampdoria & Lazio: A tale of home and away

When betting on the handicap bettors should be mindful of teams that perform better at home than on the road, and vice versa. These trends can skew their overall handicap performance and so far in the 2013/14 Serie A season Sampdoria and Lazio are two such teams.

Lazio have an overall handicap cover percentage of 58.8%, while Sampdoria have done so in 47.1% of their games. However by keeping their own data bettors would have noticed that Lazio’s home record (100%) against the spread is far superior to when they play away (22.2%).

Sampdoria in comparison have covered the spread at home in just 11.1% (worst in the division) of their home games compared to an impressive 87.5% (best in the division) on their travels.

Both Lazio’s and Sampdoria’s handicap form this season highlights the need for bettors to keep their own handicap records so they can highlight trends in the data, helping them set their own handicap strength and therefore deciding if a teams handicap is wrong.

Want to understand more about soccer handicap betting? Click here to learn the basics.

See the latest Serie A handicap betting odds now.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

суббота, 28 декабря 2013 г.

Which La Liga teams are profitable on the handicap?

By Michael Gales Dec 27, 2013

With the 2013/14 La Liga teams now on their winter break until January 5th, Pinnacle Sports has gathered this seasons handicap data for bettors to study. Despite being third, Real Madrid have been abysmal against the spread, while Malaga are proving profitable.

The story so far: 2013/14 La Liga handicap table before winter break

The La Liga handicap table below shows how well the Spanish teams have performed against expectations up until the winter break. Instead of looking at the win-loss-draw performance of each team, the table highlights the teams that have exceeded expectation or under-performed – a vital tool for La Liga soccer betting.

2013/14 La Liga Handicap table

Team

Handicap Position

La Liga Position

Difference

Cover %

Home Cover %

Away Cover %

Malaga

70.6%

62.5%

77.8%

Levante

+11

64.7%

62.5%

66.7%

Atletico Madrid

-1

64.7%

66.7%

62.5%

Villarreal

58.8%

55.6%

62.5%

Athletic Bilbao

-1

58.8%

66.7%

50.0%

Granada

52.9%

33.3%

75.0%

Elche

52.9%

44.4%

62.5%

Osasuna

+10

52.9%

50.0%

55.6%

Espanyol

47.1%

44.4%

50.0%

Barcelona

-9

47.1%

50.0%

44.4%

Real Sociedad

-6

47.1%

62.5%

33.3%

Seville

-5

41.2%

25.0%

55.6%

Rayo Vallecano

41.2%

37.5%

44.4%

Getafe

-6

41.2%

44.4%

37.5%

Almeria

35.3%

12.5%

55.6%

Real Valladolid

35.3%

25.0%

44.4%

Celta Vigo

-2

29.4%

11.1%

50.0%

Valencia

-7

29.4%

22.2%

37.5%

Real Madrid

-16

29.4%

50.0%

11.1%

Real Betis

23.5%

22.2%

25.0%

Real Madrid & Barcelona

Apart from El Clasico matches there is little value to be had betting on either Barcelona or Real Madrid on the weekly 12 markets. Instead bettors look towards the handicap markets. Barcelona and Real Madrid may be first and third respectively, but on Pinnacle Sports’ La Liga handicap table they rank 10th and 19th respectively.

The Catalan giants have covered the spread in 47.1% – covering in eight of their 17 games – of La Liga games this season, which suggests the bookmakers have a good grasp of their overall strength. At the Nou Camp they have covered in 50% of games, while their away record has seen them fail to cover the handicap in 55.6% of games.

Real Madrid’s handicap data is much more interesting for bettors as they have the second worst record against the spread this season. In their 17 La Liga games to date, the Galacticos have covered just 29.4% of the time – five times.

A closer look at the table shows that despite covering in 50% of games at the Bernabeu, they have under-performed on the road, covering in just one game against Almeria (11.1% of games) – the worst in La Liga. Despite winning six, losing one and drawing two of these games, savvy bettors would have noticed an opportunity to make a profit on Madrid being overvalued.

Malaga exceeding expectations

With a host of changes at Malaga during the summer, which saw star players Isco, Joaqun and Jrmy Toulalan sold in an attempt to settle huge debts, and Bernd Schuster take over as manager from Manuel Pellegrini, many expected the club to struggle after successive top six finishes.

With such upheaval bookmakers have struggled to judge the relative strength of Los Boquerones resulting in an opportunity for informed bettors to make a profit.

Despite sitting 10th in La Liga – five points above the relegation zone – Malaga are top of the Pinnacle Sports’ handicap table after covering in an impressive 70.6% of games this season. What this highlights is that bookmakers have underestimated Malaga’s strength – influenced by the big changes – considerably so far this season, especially on the road where they have covered in seven of their nine games, despite winning just one.

Bettors should keep a close eye on Malaga’s handicap values in the future with the goal of recognising when they are overvalued – as a direct result of being undervalued – first, therefore creating an opportunity to win.

Value to be had on overvalued home teams

It is no secret that football teams over the course of a season will more often than not perform better at home than on the road. This creates an opening for bettors to find value backing against certain teams at home on the handicap.

Celta Vigo for instance have covered in just one (11.7%) of their nine La Liga games at home compared to 50% on the road, which highlights a clear overvaluation at home.

Despite sitting seventh in the table and playing just two teams above them, Seville’s record at home against the handicap is disappointing – covering in 25% of games. Their home handicap record is far worse than when they play away (55.6%), which shows that they haven’t performed as expected at the Sanchez Pizjuan this season.

However a closer look shows that they have played half of these games directly after playing in the Europa League. Are these escapades across Europe affecting them more than their handicap value suggests? Which could explain their poor handicap performances at home this season?

Want to understand more about soccer handicap betting? Click here to learn the basics.

See the latest La Liga handicap betting odds now.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Can anyone stop Djokovic, Nadal or Murray lifting the ATP Australian Open trophy?

By Dan Weston Dec 27, 2013

The tennis season is in full swing and the first of the four Grand Slam events, the Australian Open, begins on the 13th January. With two of Djokovic, Nadal or Murray competing in each of the last three Australian Open finals, do the odds suggest anyone can stop them this year?

Last year in Melbourne, the men’s event featured 79.1% service holds, which was slightly above the 78.3% ATP hard court average. Historically the courts have played slightly slowly, with only 76.8% service holds from 2011-2013. Looking at these stats it’s reasonable to assume that conditions are playing close to average, and cannot feature heavily in analysing a player’s chances of success.

For those that are new to tennis betting, it’s worth pointing out that Grand Slam matches are played over the best of five sets, with the finalists needing to play seven matches in a fortnight. The consequence of this is that fitness is an even more crucial facet of success for players in Grand Slam events, and getting through the early matches without playing long, five set matches is critical.

The financial and ranking point incentives of Grand Slams dictate that favourites tend to dominate more than a regular ATP event and it’s worth noting that 26 of the 30 finalists in the past ten years have come from the top five seeds. Only three non-seeds have made the final in the past 10 years, and all were illustrious players – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Marcos Baghdatis and Marat Safin. All other finalists have come from the top five seeds apart from Fernando Gonzalez (10th seed) in 2007.

Djokovic, Nadal & Murray: The main contenders

There can be no doubt that the man to beat in the tournament is Novak Djokovic. The Serb – currently valued at 2.200* – has won the tournament every year since 2011 and was clearly the form player at the end of the 2013 season, winning his last 24 matches of the campaign in a run spanning back to early September. His record overall in the Australian Open is highly impressive, winning 39 of his 44 career main draw matches. It’s also worth mentioning that Djokovic has hired Boris Becker as his new coach during the off-season – Becker’s first coaching role.

Rafael Nadal did not participate in 2013 due to his recovery from knee surgery, but was the last player to beat Djokovic – doing so in the final of the US Open (the other Grand Slam played on hard court). The Spanish world number one is currently available at 3.310* but seemed to be a level below the imperious Djokovic towards the end of 2013, with losses to Djokovic (twice), Juan Martin Del Potro and David Ferrer.

Whilst injury has forced his ranking to drop to number four, there can be no doubt that Andy Murray (2011 and 2013 runner-up) completes the elite trio at the forefront of the men’s game.

Murray, who is third favourite at 9.000*, missed the end of the season, not competing since the Davis Cup clash with Croatia in early September, as he underwent back surgery. With little quantifiable information available on top players immediate success after returning from serious surgery (especially with a Grand Slam very soon after their comeback), it’s very difficult to assess Murray’s chances. How he reacts to the gruelling nature of Grand Slams, so soon after major surgery will ultimately determine whether or not he can win.

These three players have competed every final between them since 2011 and based on the hard court serve and return stats below, it’s difficult to see a different outcome in 2014.

2013 ATP service and break statistics

Player

Rank

2013 Service Hold %

2013 Break Opponent %

Combined %

Nadal

90.3

31.7

122

Djokovic

88.9

35.6

124.5

Ferrer

77.3

33.2

110.5

Murray

84.3

33.2

117.5

Del Potro

85.5

25.8

111.3

Federer

88.3

24.9

113.2

Berdych

85.1

30.5

115.6

Wawrinka

85.5

21.7

107.2

Gasquet

82.7

24.8

107.5

Tsonga

86.3

23.4

109.7

Can anyone upset the main contenders?

The above stats illustrate that there is a second tier of players, with David Ferrer priced at 86.000*, Juan Martin Del Potro 15.000*, Roger Federer 21.000*, Tomas Berdych 109.340* and arguably Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 99.370* in that bracket.

Del Potro is the shortest priced contender away from the top three and is considered amongst some to be close to the elite. Certainly, on his best form, he can upset the top players, but the five set format of Grand Slams does not do him any favours. As we can see above, he only broke opponents 25.8% on hard court in 2013 and this is almost 10% below Djokovic, and around 6-8% behind Nadal, Murray & Ferrer.

Roger Federer last won this event in 2010 but the Swiss legend – currently ranked at number six in the world – isn’t quite the player he once was. He’s lost his last seven matches to Djokovic (three) & Nadal (four) combined with his last victory against either player coming in the final of Cincinnati in August 2012.

These five players form the basis of the ‘best of the rest’ market of players under or around 100/1, with only Stanislas Wawrinka 52.490* also considered a realistic contender by the market.

‘Long-shots’ at long prices

Milos Raonic, Jerzy Janowicz, John Isner and Ernests Gulbis are several other players worth discussing as very long-shots.

Raonic currently available at 109.430* , Janowicz 138.620* and Isner 217.490* are all ‘big servers’ with relatively limited return games.

Raonic impressed in the latter stages of the 2013 season and has been tipped by many to break into the top ten in 2014. His hard court 2013 stats of 91.1% service holds and 15.8% opponent breaks give him a combined percentage of 106.9 – showing that he has no better surface stats than any of the current top ten.

Janowicz had a losing 5-7 record on hard courts in 2013 so has a lot to prove, whilst John Isner’s very mediocre return game (12.2% opponent breaks on hard court in 2013) means that his matches tend to be very long. The impact of this accumulated fatigue is that he gets tired earlier in the event and could be the reason why he has a mediocre record in Grand Slams.

Finally, there can be little doubt that Gulbis 217.490* has the talent to get to the latter stages of big tournaments, but the enigmatic Latvian’s erratic mentality means that it’s difficult for him to perform consistently at a high level for a fortnight. However, with an 11-4 record on hard court in 2013, and with better serve/break stats than some of the top ten (83.6% holds and 27.8% opponent breaks on the surface), the top players would be very wise not to underestimate him.

It’s worth stressing that betting in Grand Slams is a very different proposition to the normal 3 set ATP matches. It’s vital that bettors do their research and make the necessary adjustments if they are to profit in Grand Slam events.

Click here to see the latest ATP Australian Open odds

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer and his work can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Can Williams win her first Australian Open since 2010?

By Dan Weston Dec 27, 2013

The first WTA Grand Slam of the year – the Australian Open– begins on the 13th January, with Serena Williams listed as the big favourite. Can Williams overcome her poor form and lift her first title at Melbourne Park since 2010, or will there be a shock on the cards?

History suggests the winner is ranked inside the top 10

The Australian Open is the first Grand Slam in 2014 and it is vital that bettors treat the WTA version (best of three sets) as a completely different betting proposition to the ATP version (best of five sets). Whilst the men’s competition is a supreme test of fitness, the women’s tournament is no different in match duration to normal events.

The effect of this is that whilst the best of five format tends to favour the ‘better player’ in the men’s event, women do not enjoy that advantage.

As mentioned in the ATP preview, the conditions in this event tend to play a touch on the slower side of average, so it’s not a huge consideration when assessing the contenders in the WTA outright markets. 61.5% of service games were held in 2013, which is slightly below the 2013 WTA hard court mean of 63.1%.

With 28 of the 30 previous finalists in the last ten years coming from top ten players, and the two exceptions being Justine Henin and Serena Williams – both former world number ones at that point – it is clear that when looking at potential winners that the main focus must be on the current top ten players.

Serena Williams is currently available as the 1.901* favourite, but her recent record in Melbourne is not particularly good when considering how far above the competition she generally is. From 2005-2010, she did capture four titles, but the world number one has not made the final for the previous three years, losing to Sloane Stephens in 2013, Ekaterina Makarova in 2012 and not participating in 2011.

However, it’s worth looking at the table below, which illustrates the superiority Williams enjoyed over the top ten on hard court in 2013. The table also includes the five players ranked outside the top ten that are priced under 100 in the outright markets. *

2013 WTA service and break statistics

Player

Rank

2013 Service Hold %

2013 Break Opponent %

Combined %

S. Williams

84.8

51.8

136.6

Azarenka

68.9

57.3

126.2

73.2

121.2

Sharapova

79.8

51.7

131.5

A. Radwanska

73.4

46.3

119.7

Kvitova

70.6

37.8

108.4

Errani

56.8

107.8

Jankovic

62.1

44.2

106.3

Kerber

67.9

44.1

112

Wozniacki

69.2

43.7

112.9

Halep

68.5

47.7

116.2

Stephens

67.4

37.3

104.7

Lisicki

36.1

108.1

Ivanovic

69.4

43.1

112.5

Stosur

72.5

35.9

108.4

Big difference amongst the top five

The top five players in the world – all with combined percentages of around 120 or higher – are on a much higher level than the rest. Williams has a combined percentage of 5.1% more than the second place Maria Sharapova. To put this in context, the men’s favourite, Novak Djokovic’s combined percentage was just 2.5% above Rafael Nadal.

In the outright market, Victoria Azarenka is the 6.160* second favourite. The Belarussian is probably the player that can best compete with Williams (they won two head to head matches apiece in 2013), but she suffered a hugely disappointing end to the 2013 season, losing five of her last six matches (three as favourite priced at 1.250 or below), and failing to qualify from the Round Robin stage of the WTA Championships in Istanbul.

Maria Sharapova is third favourite, and was ranked second in the combined percentages table above. Having missed the last three months of the season with a shoulder injury, she’s currently priced at 10.150*. As with Andy Murray in the men’s tournament, it’s very difficult to know how her body will react to a two week campaign, and she may need to get a better level of match fitness before she can realistically hope to compete with the best.

2011 and 2013 runner-up Na Li is next in the betting at 11.470*. Whilst the Chinese player has strong hard court stats and is definitely capable of giving the top players a tough match, there are doubts over her mental strength. Both her final defeats here were after she took the first set, and she has a poor 7-11 record in all WTA and Grand Slam finals combined in her career.

The final member of the top five, Agnieszka Radwanska, is sixth favourite in the market currently, available at 33.110*. With only one Grand Slam final in her career (a loss to Serena Williams in Wimbledon 2012), and the stats showing her level to be below the other members of the top five on hard court, it’s difficult to see the Pole making significant inroads beyond the quarter finals, unless the draw opens favours her.

Best of the rest

Several other contenders priced below 100 in the outright market worth mentioning are Petra Kvitova, Simona Halep and Sam Stosur.

Despite being ranked 6th in the world, and having questionable hard court stats, Kvitova is fifth favourite in the betting at 19.170*. However with her 2013 hard court opponent break percentage being just 37.8% (by some considerable distance the worst in the top ten), and with an incredible 50% of her matches in 2013 going to three sets, bettors must decide if she will win enough matches easily enough to avoid the accumulated fatigue that is so vital in Grand Slams.

Simona Halep was not even seeded in the 2013 Australian Open but in an incredible season which saw her win six titles, she finds herself priced at 43.780* for the event. She is an emerging talent but it’s worth mentioning that she picked up a fairly large proportion of her ranking points in low-level events against weaker competition, and these matches may flatter her stats slightly.

Finally, Sam Stosur will enjoy home player support but the 2011 US Open Champion, priced at 43.780*, has failed to get past the last 16 in this event. It has been mentioned by many that she may find the expectation a burden instead of a boost, and with such a career record it’s very tough to expect her to get significantly further than this.

Click here to see the latest WTA Australian Open Odds

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer and his work can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

вторник, 24 декабря 2013 г.

Are Cardiff underrated at home against Southampton?

By Michael Gales Dec 23, 2013

Despite covering the spread in 62.5% of home games this season, Cardiff City find themselves as underdogs against visiting Southampton on Boxing Day. Given the Saints’ poor form of late and Cardiff’s record at home on the handicap are the Bluebirds undervalued?

What does Cardiff’s handicap form suggest?

Four-points above the relegation zone newcomers Cardiff City may be struggling in their inaugural year in the Premier League – winning just three of their eight home games – but handicap bettors will be interested by their performance against the spread.

A quick look at Cardiff’s record would suggest they haven’t had a great start at home, however they have played six of the top eight at home already, losing their three games against Arsenal, Tottenham and Newcastle.

Unsurprisingly given their opposition at the Cardiff City Stadium, Handicap bettors will be interested to know they have been underdogs against the spread at home in all but one game – Newcastle United.

The Bluebirds have covered the spread in 52.9% of games this season but at home their percentage increases to 62.5%.

So despite facing tougher opposition they have performed better on the spread at home than on the road where they have faced seven of their nine games against teams in the bottom half of the EPL, covering just 33% of the time.

Once more Cardiff are underdogs with the handicap set at 0 and -0.5 in favour of the visitors, are the bookmakers undervaluing the Bluebirds again?

Mackay vs. Tan: A motivation or a hindrance?

Cardiff manager Malky Mackay expected to lose his job last weekend after being given an ultimatum to resign or be sacked by the clubs owner Vincent Tan.

Despite masterminding Cardiff’s promotion last season the relationship between manager/owner has been toxic for a number of weeks, and almost came to a head. Many believe the situation is untenable but Mackay is refusing to resign and Tan has stated he won’t sack him at the moment.

Bettors should consider how this off the field issue might affect the players. Could it provide motivation for the team creating a mentality of ‘lets do it for the manager’ or might it have a negative impact? Only time will tell, but it is something worth considering before placing your bet.

Southampton’s handicap performance on the road

Southampton made a fantastic start to the season but are the worst team in the EPL form guide and have slipped down to ninth in the table following four defeats and two draws in their last six games.

Against the handicap this season the Saints have covered the spread in 52.9% of their EPL games – but just twice in the last six games. Interestingly they have covered in 50% of their away games, including at Newcastle, Liverpool and Manchester United.

Another point worth noting is that the Saints have failed to score more than one goal in an away game this season and average 0.75 goals per game, compared to 1.29 at home, while they concede just 1.13 goals per game, the second best in the division.

Southampton’s away games have been low scoring affairs with an average of 1.87 goals per game, however excluding the 3-1 and 2-0 defeats against Chelsea and Arsenal respectively, that average falls to a mere 1.28 goals.

This highlights that away from home Southampton are tough to score against, but may sacrifice some of their attacking threat in order to keep it tight at the back.

Bettors must decide if the Saints – who are in a poor run of form – as 0 and -0.5 favourites are overvalued, given they are playing a Cardiff team who have performed above expectations on the spread at home this season?

Click here to see the latest Cardiff City vs. Southampton odds

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

понедельник, 23 декабря 2013 г.

Will England qualify in tough Group D?

By Michael Gales Dec 23, 2013

The 2014 World Cup odds to qualify from Group D are extremely close with Italy slightly favoured over Uruguay and England. How will England play without expectation, will Italy cope with the heat and could travel affect Uruguay?

England: Could they prosper without the pressure of expectation?

Fifa Ranking: 13th

Best Finish: Winners (1966)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,972^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 25.000*

England dropped outside of the top seven (13th) in the world and subsequently missed the chance to be seeded for the World Cup, which resulted in them being drawn in a tough Group D alongside Uruguay, Italy and Costa Rica.

Such is the quality of opposition in Group D England are the 1.769* third-favourites to qualify, which suggests the bookmakers are not completely comfortable on who will secure the top two places.

The Three Lions qualified top of their group, finishing unbeaten and conceding just four goals. On paper England’s campaign looked impressive – conceding just 0.4 goals per match and scoring 3.1 – but in reality their group consisted of relatively poor opposition.

A sign of the level England that are at was made apparent in back-to-back friendly defeats at Wembley, first to Chile and then Germany. For once optimism isn’t high amongst fans and the media alike. Could this give the players the freedom to perform without the huge expectation they feel at every major tournament?

If England are to be successful in Brazil, striker Wayne Rooney must perform better than his two previous World Cups. Despite playing in South Africa & Germany, Rooney has failed to score on the biggest stage of all. However seven goals in just six qualifiers has given him a fantastic platform to build on in Brazil.

Is the tough group actually a bonus? Given the pressure and expectation that has been lifted, if they do progress, the confidence they would gain would make them a difficult team to play. Then again the expectation would more than likely return.

England’s record against Group D opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Italy

33%

Uruguay

33%

Costa Rica

Italy: Favourites to qualify, but only just

Fifa Ranking: 7th

Best Finish: Winners (1934, 1938, 1982 & 2006)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,920^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 25.000*

Italy are the 1.400* Group D favourites to qualify out of the group. They are the second most successful nation at the World Cup but that stands for little as they have won just once – 2006 – in the modern era and were eliminated as defending champions without a point in 2010. (Click here to see if historical performance is useful for predicting World Cup winners.)

They qualified with two matches to spare, along with the Netherlands, becoming the first European nation to book their place in Brazil. Despite a successful campaign, manager Cesare Prandelli, experimented in the final two games which the Azzurri drew, dropping crucial ranking points, ultimately dashing their hopes of being seeded – which could prove decisive given that they are in a tough group.

Prandelli will be hoping to get the best out of the enigma that is Mario Balotelli as he did in Euro 2012, scoring three goals and helping them on their way to the final. The Milan forward has scored 12 goals in 29 appearances – and they have never lost when he has found the net.

Italy will suffer the highest average temperatures of any team in the World Cup with an average of 86F. The fact they finished third in the 2013 Confederations Cup in Brazil could prove to be a trump card in dealing with the heat.

Another bonus is their style of play which is possession-based with a patient approach – when they have the ball the opposition will be getting tired trying to win it back. One issue the Azzurri may have is how Andrea Pirlo – who will be 35 – will perform in the energy sapping heat? With Pirlo fundamental to their ball retention, if he is off his game, how much of an impact could that have?

Italy’s record against Group D opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

England

37.5%

Uruguay

22%

Costa Rica

Uruguay: Great attacking threat, but defensive frailties could be fatal

Fifa Ranking: 6th

Best Finish: Winners (1930 & 1950)

Overall Miles to travel: 2,886^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 25.000*

Uruguay are the seeded team in Group D but are the 1.541* 2nd favourites to progress to the knockout stages.

Qualifying didn’t go smoothly as they finished fifth in the South American table and had to beat Jordan in a playoff game to qualify. Their main problem was in defence conceding the same number as they scored (25). The stats don’t read pretty either having conceded 1.39 goals per game (2nd highest) 33% of goals from set-pieces (3rd highest) and 20% of goals inside the first 15 minutes. Is this a sign that experienced centre-back pairing Diego Godin and captain Diego Lugano careers are in decline?

On the other end of the spectrum they have a fantastic trio of forwards in Edinson Cavani, Luis Suarez and Diego Forlan – so scoring goals shouldn’t be a problem. Cavani will lead the line, with Suarez given licence to roam.

Travel could become an issue for La Celeste as they will travel a combined total of 2,886 miles during their three Group D matches – third highest at the World Cup and much more than their Group D opponents. Bettors must consider how this will affect an ageing team, who have struggled away from home in the past year?

Before betting on Uruguay bettors need to consider if Uruguay’s defensive woes and laborious travel schedule will outweigh their attacking threat? Answering this conundrum should give you a better insight whether or not you will back them to qualify for the knockout stages.

Uruguay’s record against Group D opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

England

33%

Italy

33%

Costa Rica

71%

Costa Rica: Tough, resilient, organized… but big outsiders to qualify

Fifa Ranking: 31st

Best Finish: Last 16 (1990)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,411^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: N/A

Odds of 8.220* suggest Costa Rica will be the Group D whipping boys, however they are defensively solid and have moved from 64th in the world to 31st – second most improved at the World Cup.

During qualifying Los Ticos finished runners-up in the final group stage after winning their five home games and conceding just seven goals in the final phase – fewer than any other team. Their defensive solidarity is a hindrance to their attacking play however, which is notable given they failed to score in 31% of their qualifying matches.

If they are to impose themselves in an attacking sense they will need key contributions from Fulham’s Bryan Ruiz and young starlet Joel Campbell.

Another key component to the Costa Rican cog is Goalkeeper Keylor Navas. The Keeper kept seven clean sheets in 14 qualifying matches and will need to be on top form if they are to progress.

Historically they qualified for the last 16 in their first appearance in a World Cup but group exits have followed in 2002 and 2006. Baring a brilliant performance and a large chunk of luck a group exit looks likely for a third successive time.

Costa Rica’s record against Group D opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

England

Italy

Costa Rica

^ This is the overall number of miles each nation will travel during the group stages from their selected base camp.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup futures odds.

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*Odds subject to change

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пятница, 20 декабря 2013 г.

Will the conditions favour Group C favourites Colombia?

By Michael Gales Dec 19, 2013

Colombia are the clear 2014 World Cup Group C favourites to progress into the last 16 ahead of Japan, the Ivory Coast and Greece. How much will the travel and conditions benefit the South Americans and hinder the rest?

Colombia: Are they undervalued?

Fifa Ranking: 4th

Best Finish: Last 16 (1990)

Overall Miles to travel: 932^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 21.000*

In a weak Group C Colombia are the 1.278* favourites to reach the 2014 World Cup knockout stages for just the second time – having been eliminated at the Group stages in three of their four previous appearances.

The fourth best team in the world – according to Fifa – qualified comfortably in second-place behind Argentina. They set a personal record by winning 30 points from 16 games, which included notable 4-0 and 3-1 wins against Uruguay and Chile respectively, while they battled hard to earn a point in a goalless draw in Argentina.

Colombia conceded the fewest goals in South American qualifying and secured an impressive 85% of possible points from winning positions. Interestingly in-play bettors should take note that they failed to score from a corner in 16 games; is this a consequence of poor delivery, good defending or just bad luck?

Much of Colombia’s potential success will revolve around striker Radamel Falcao, who scored nine times in qualifying and has 151 goals in 193 club games since playing in Europe.

The conditions in Brazil are likely to favour Los Cafeteros. Their qualifying games were played in the scorching Caribbean port of Barranquilla, opting for mid-afternoon kick-offs in the belief that their rivals would wilt in the heat. At 38, captain Mario Yepes, belied his age in qualification but will he be up to three games in quick succession?.

Apart from the familiar conditions the Colombian’s also have much fewer miles to travel during the group stages compared to their Group C rivals. With shorter travelling times and a familiarity to the conditions, are they undervalued?

Colombia’s record against Group C opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Ivory Coast

Japan

50%

Greece

Ivory Coast: Golden generation turning grey

Fifa Ranking: 17th

Best Finish: Group Stage (2006 & 2010)

Overall Miles to travel: 2,081^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 121.000*

The Ivorians are an ageing squad and much like England’s golden generation they have failed to live up to expectations. This is surely the last chance for them to stamp their mark on the world stage, and odds of 2.160* suggest progression from Group C is not a given.

Their failure is evident given they are yet to break their African Cup of Nations duck and failed to get out of the World Cup group stages in 2006 and 2010 when great things were expected. With that said they have been drawn in two ‘Groups of Death’ finishing third behind Argentina and the Netherlands in 2006 and Brazil and Portugal in 2010.

Along with Nigeria, Les lphants were the only African side to qualify unbeaten. They won their preliminary group before beating Senegal 4-2 on aggregate. During qualifying they proved their desire to remain unbeaten by taking 56% of their points from losing positions, while they were one of seven teams who have qualified to score in every match.

With an easier group than they have faced in previous World Cups, is this the time for Didier Drogba and co to deliver? Or will complacency creep into the Ivorian’s approach?

Ivory Coast’s record against Group C opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Colombia

Japan

50%

Greece

Japan: Do they have the potential to be a surprise package?

Fifa Ranking: 48th

Best Finish: Round of 16 (2002 & 2010)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,731^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 121.000*

The Japanese are renowned as a technically gifted team yet defensively susceptible and a little light-weight; as a result they are offered at 2.070* to progress to the knockout stage for the third time.

They have qualified for every World Cup since 1998 and were the first to confirm their name in the draw for 2014. They dominated Asia’s final qualifying group recording 17 points and finishing top scorers – interestingly scoring 30% of their goals from headers.

Despite this, Japan have suffered a dip in form over the last year, which has seen them drop from 24th in the World Rankings to 48th following three straight defeats in the Confederations Cup and losses against Serbia and Belarus. However they responded by drawing in the Netherlands and then beating Belgium in November.

Does this revival in form offer an indication that Japan could yet be a surprise package at the World Cup or is their Confederations Cup embarrassment in Brazil a sign of things to come?

Japan’s record against Group C opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Ivory Coast

50%

Colombia

Greece

100%

Greece: Will strong defence be enough?

Fifa Ranking: 12th

Best Finish: Group Stage (1994 & 2010)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,409^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 151.000*

Greece are the 3.420* Group C underdogs to progress to the knockout stage, despite being the second best ranked team in the group. In their two previous World Cup campaigns (1994 & 2010) they departed in the group stages, but at Euro 2012 they upset the odds to beat Russia and reach the quarter-finals.

The Greeks finished second in their qualifying group behind Bosnia but beat Romania 4-2 on aggregate in the Playoffs. During qualifying they conceded just four times and two of them were from freekicks.

Portuguese coach, Fernando Santos, has been manager since taking over from Otto Rehhagel – who masterminded Greece’s remarkable Euro 2004 win – in 2010. Santos has previously stated his desire to make the team more expansive, only for them to as he puts it “slip back into our comfort zone, our defensive strength”.

Greece may have a solid defence but to progress to the last 16 they will need to offer more in attack. Target man Kostas Mitroglou may provide the answer for the Ethniki. He has been in terrific form for Olympiakos scoring a goal every 2.04 games, while he netted three times against Romania to qualify.

To qualify for the knockout stages Greece may have to sacrifice a bit of defensive solidity in favour of a more attacking approach, it’s up to you to decide whether this will help or hinder their chances?

Greece’s record against Group C opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Ivory Coast

Japan

Colombia

^ This is the overall number of miles each nation will travel during the group stages from their selected base camp.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup futures odds.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup match odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

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вторник, 31 декабря 2013 г.

суббота, 28 декабря 2013 г.

вторник, 24 декабря 2013 г.

понедельник, 23 декабря 2013 г.

пятница, 20 декабря 2013 г.

вторник, 31 декабря 2013 г.

суббота, 28 декабря 2013 г.

вторник, 24 декабря 2013 г.

понедельник, 23 декабря 2013 г.

пятница, 20 декабря 2013 г.