ATP Zagreb Indoors Betting: Confident Seppi can land the title in Croatia

Will Andreas Seppi be celebrating again on Sunday in Zagreb?

ATP World Tour tennis returns this week, with tournaments on clay and indoor hard and Sean Calvert likes the chances of an Italian in Zagreb...

The ATP World Tour moves swiftly on from Melbourne in week five, with three ATP 250 events in Croatia, France and Ecuador.

The latter event - the Ecuador Open Quito is a new clay court event on the Golden Swing and it replaces the Vina Del Mar tournament for the first time for 2015.

It represents the first clay court action of the season and it's attracted the likes of Feli Lopez, Fernando Verdasco, and Santi Giraldo to its inaugural edition hosted in the highest altitude capital city in the world.

That will presumably mean quick conditions, with balls flying about if not properly controlled, and with the likes of Verdasco, Thomaz Bellucci and Martin Klizan in the draw it could be an interesting week in Ecuador.

As far as betting is concerned in that one it might pay to side with a long shot, with Horacio Zeballos an interesting contender at 34.033/1, having won the Quito Challenger here in the past.

Victor Estrella Burgos has also won the Quito Challenger, as has Joao Souza and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see someone like Alejandro Falla bounce back to form out of nowhere in these conditions.

In short, that one looks wide open, but my bet this week takes place elsewhere in week five.

In Croatia they play indoors on a quickish surface at the PBZ Zagreb Indoors, where they're without their big draw of Marin Cilic, who has withdrawn with a continuing shoulder issue and also reportedly may miss out in Rotterdam and Delray Beach too.

This event has been won by Croatians in five of the last six years, but it's never been a happy hunting ground for top seed Ivo Karlovic, who has never been past the quarter finals here in nine tries going back to 2006.

Karlovic passed the 9,000 career aces mark in the Australian swing of the tour, but he looks worth opposing based on his record here and perhaps a better Croatian hope could be young Borna Coric.

Zagreb-born and raised Coric is yet to win a match in the main draw at his home event, but the 18-year-old is sure to be giving it his all and after losing early in Melbourne he's sure to have been practicing a lot for this.

But the bottom half of the draw looks the place for a bet rather than the top, with Adrian Mannarino and Gilles Muller the highest seeds in that half of the draw and both look tight in price.

After making the Auckland final Mannarino rocketed up to a career high 36 in the world rankings, but his Australasia adventures came to a painful end when he had to retire in Melbourne after leading Lopez 6-4, 6-4, 4-0 at one stage.

The Frenchman was unable to stand up and was treated with morphine after the match, but he should be fine now and should go well again with a kind draw, but I prefer the chances of 11.010/1 shot Andreas Seppi.

The Italian should be in good spirits after beating Roger Federer in Melbourne, but rather typically he lost from two sets up and match point up in the very next round to Nick Kyrgios.

The quick surface in Melbourne allowed Seppi's forehand to become more potent, along with his serve, which has become much more of a weapon in 2015, and he should find similar conditions here in Zagreb.

The draw looks kind, with an out of form Robin Haase first up and there's no reason why Seppi can't beat the likes of James Ward, Ricardas Berankis, Lukas Lacko, and Muller to reach the last four.

Then it would be one of Mannarino, Marcel Granollers, Ivan Dodig, Igor Sijsling, or Jurgen Melzer for a place in the final, which seems pretty reasonable to me for the 11.010/1 shot.

Seppi has very good records over Dodig and Muller and the Italian can carry his good form over from Australia to this tournament.

Over in Montpellier, the Open Sud de France is played on a pacy Greenset surface, which has been highly spoken of by the likes of Nicolas Mahut, and it's been won in three of the last four times by Frenchman.

Gael Monfils is the defending champion here and Lamonf also won it in 2010, while Richard Gasquet was successful here in 2013, but both are drawn in the same half of the draw this year.

The conditions here offer something for attackers and defenders, but it looks a really trappy betting heat, with perhaps Jerzy Janowicz a reasonable choice at 11.010/1, but I can't trust the Pole not to throw in a shocker.

If Lucas Pouille continues his recent form the level he showed in Melbourne would be good enough to win this, but he will have to face Gasquet in round two and he's probably more one to watch just now.

Philipp Kohlschreiber could go well, but he's very hard to win with at single figure prices most weeks and he hasn't won a title outside of Germany since 2008 and I'll stick with just the one wager this week.

Recommended Bet
Back Seppi to win Zagreb at 11.010/1

Premier League on Betfair: Man United cast Leicester aside and Stoke pile further woe on travel-sick QPR

Movin' on up...Louis van Gaal's United are up to third, for now

Luke Moore rounds up the afternoon's Premier League action, which saw no less than 19 goals across the seven games...

Louis van Gaal's Manchester United exorcised their demons by beating Leicester City 3-1 at Old Trafford and avenging the 5-3 defeat at the King Power Stadium back in September.

Goals from Robin van Persie and Falcao were added to by an own goal from Wes Morgan before Marcin Wasilewski grabbed a late consolation from the visitors. The win elevated United to third in the table above Southampton who play Swansea tomorrow, and Van Gaal's men are now just 1.564/7 to finish in the top four this season, with Leicester City now into 1.674/6 for the dreaded drop.

At Anfield, Daniel Sturridge celebrated his return after five months away with injury with a goal, scoring the vital second in a 2-0 win against West Ham that moved the Reds to within just four points of a Champions League spot. Brendan Rodgers' men started this term slowly but have now lost just one of their last ten and are one of the form teams in the division. 5.69/2 is the price on the Anfield outfit finishing in the top four, having been matched at a massive 14.5n/a earlier this season.

Mauricio Pochettino's Spurs inflicted the first defeat of Tony Pulis' West Brom reign, courtesy of two goals from man-of-the-moment Harry Kane and yet another free kick from the in-form Christian Eriksen. The Spurs win was matched at 2.962/1 and in truth it was an easy day at the office for the north Londoners.

Elsewhere, Everton alleviated fears of a relegation battle with a good 0-1 win over Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park thanks to an early Romelu Lukaku goal, Stoke inflicted yet another away defeat on QPR, Sunderland recorded a needed 2-0 win over fellow strugglers Burnley and in the early kick off John Carver clinched his first win as Newcastle boss with a solid 0-3 defeat of Hull, who are now in to just 2.0621/20 for relegation.

Cross-Sport Multiple: Back Stoke to sink Rangers

Harry won't be feeling any happier on Saturday evening

Andrew Hughes thinks Stoke can edge out struggling QPR at the Britannia Stadium on Saturday and help to land a cross-sport multiple in the process

Bet 1: Back Stoke to beat QPR at 1.654/6

The Britannia Stadium hasn't quite been a fortress this season and Stoke fans have had to watch their side lose at home to both Burnley and Leicester. But things have improved in recent weeks. The Potters have lost only three of their last nine and those defeats came against Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United. 

Their opponents' struggles away from Loftus Road are well-documented, but worth repeating. QPR are yet to win away from home all season, and haven't even managed a draw; that's eleven defeats on the road, during which they've scored just five times. 

Rangers have managed the odd result to suggest they could save themselves, but are enduring another mini-slump at the moment, having lost four of their last six in all competitions, and I can't see anything other than a home win on Saturday.

Bet 2: Back Clermont to beat La Rochelle at 2.01/1

Home advantage can be vital in French rugby but even with a partisan crowd to roar them on, I can't see La Rochelle beating Top 14 leaders Clermont on Saturday.

Away from the Stade Marcel Michelin, Clermont are less formidable opponents, but they are still the best team in France right now, leading the Top 14, and qualifying in style from a tough European Champions Cup Pool. 

La Rochelle have won five times so far this season, but their form has tailed off in recent weeks. They've won just one of their last six Top 14 matches and are bottom of the table. Back the visitors to edge this one.

Bet 3: Back Nashville to beat Colorado at 2.05n/a

Nashville are still missing starting goalie Pekka Rinne but they should still be strong enough to see off Colorado and cement their position at the top of the NHL's Central Division in the early hours of Saturday morning. 

Colorado are one place off the bottom of the same division, with a poor home record, and are missing four starting players. The Predators have already earned two wins over the Avalanche this season and they can make it three this weekend. 

Total Odds for this multiple: 6.77n/a Remember, multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

Cross Sport Multiple 2015 P/L

Staked: 8 pts
Returned: 0 pts
2015 P/L: - 8 pts

Against All Odds: Goal-hungry like the Wolf

Can Bayern go unbeaten this season?

There's a huge clash in Germany tonight as it's first versus second when Bayern Munich travel to Wolfsburg and Paul Robinson expects a flood of goals.

Wolfsburg v Bayern Munich
Friday January 30, 19:30 GMT
Live on BT Sport 2

This is the first Bundesliga match since the winter break and the untimely death of Wolfsburg player, Junior Malanda. It's sure to be an emotional occasion but the players have had enough time be able to focus solely on the game.

And what a game it is, the hosts are enjoying a fabulous season on the field as they are second in the table, six points clear of Bayer Leverkusen in third. 

The key to their success has been in front of goal as Dieter Hecking's side have racked up 33 goals in 17 games. With 17 conceded at the other end, their fixtures are averaging 2.94 goals each time. Over a third would have rewarded under 3.5 layers, including two of the last four.

You may have noticed that despite their position in the table, I haven't even hinted that Wolfsburg can challenge for the title. The reason for that is Bayern Munich. The reigning, defending champions are dominating the Bundesliga once again as they are already 11 points clear at the halfway stage following 14 wins and three draws.

A remarkable 41 goals from Pep Guardiola's men is made even more impressive by the fact that they've only conceded four themselves. Their strong defensive record hasn't stopped over half of their fixtures having had at least four goals though and if Manuel Neuer was ever going to be seriously tested, it will be at the Volkswagen Arena.

It's time for a winner and I fancy the Germans to deliver. This really should be a cracking match and with under 3.5 goals trading at around the 1.645/8 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.    

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 3.5 goals in Wolfsburg v Bayern Munich @ 1.645/8

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 28 pts
Returned: 19.7 pts
P/L: - 8.3 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

Opta Stats: Chelsea v Manchester City

Can Eden Hazard prove the difference when Chelsea face Manchester City?

It's the clash of the titans as league leaders Chelsea take on reigning champions Manchester City. Opta are on hand with the vital statistics.

Chelsea have won four and lost just two of their last eight Barclays Premier League games against Manchester City. They are 2.166/5 to win.

No team has beaten Manchester City more often in the Premier League than Chelsea (22 victories, same as Arsenal). Chelsea are 3.55n/a to win half-time/full-time.

Andre Schurrle has scored in both of his Premier League appearances against Manchester City. The German is 3.412/5 to find the net.

Jose Mourinho has won seven and lost just two of the 11 meetings as a coach with Manuel Pellegrini. The draw is 3.55n/a.

Chelsea have won 11 and lost just one of the last 16 Premier League home games against the Citizens. The draw half-time/Chelsea full-time double result is 5.95/1.

Branislav Ivanovic has assisted a goal in each of his last three Premier League appearances. Ivanovic is 7.06/1 to score himself.

Oscar has netted three goals and laid on two more in his last three Premier League games. Oscar is 3.412/5 to add to his goal tally.

The Blues have kept eight clean sheets in their last 11 Premier League outings, including the last five in a row at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea are 3.02/1 to keep a clean sheet.

64% of the goals Manchester City have conceded have come in the second-half, the highest proportion in the top flight. Chelsea half-time/full-time draw is priced at 16.5n/a.

Cesc Fabregas is the first player to provide 15 assists in two different Premier League seasons (2007/08 and 2014/15). Fabregas is 3.814/5 to score himself.

The Big Match Tactical View: Chelsea v Man City

Pablo Zabaleta will have a tough evening against Eden Hazard

Saturday's final game is one of the biggest of the season, as Jose Mourinho and Manuel Pellegrini do battle at Stamford Bridge. Michael Cox looks at their selection decisions, while Alan Thompson has the betting angle.

Chelsea v Manchester City
Saturday 17:30, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Chelsea 2.1411/10, Man City 3.8514/5, The Draw 3.613/5.

We're still in January, yet this feels like the most important fixture of the season in terms of determining the destination of the title. Chelsea have a comfortable five-point cushion over Manchester City, but a win for the away side and the title race is blown wide open.

The danger, however, is that both teams might settle for a point. Chelsea are happy with a five-point gap, while Manchester City might feel they have a better chance of catching Chelsea by cutting their losses here, and concentrating on picking up points elsewhere. This is likely to be a tight, tense and tactical game.

Both sides could be missing key attacking weapons. For Chelsea, Jose Mourinho seems set to be without Diego Costa after his stamp in Chelsea's midweek Capital One Cup game, and Cesc Fabregas could also miss out with a hamstring strain. This could influence his tactics significantly, and while Didier Drogba can play upfront without too much change in Chelsea's shape, Fabregas will probably be replaced by a more functional player.

Mourinho praised Ramires heavily in midweek, and the Brazilian could come into the side and sit alongside Nemanja Matic. Alternatively, John Obi Mikel could do a similar job: Mourinho will be determined not to let David Silva find space between the lines, so expect a relatively structured, solid and compact Chelsea team.

Manchester City are still without Yaya Toure, which means Fernandinho should play a more advanced role than he's accustomed to, storming forward to link up with Silva. Samir Nasri is also a big loss, though James Milner was outstanding in the 1-1 draw between the sides earlier in the season. Pellegrini could even spring a controversial surprise by including ex-Chelsea legend Frank Lampard in midfield.

There are three particularly interesting areas to focus on here. The first is a head-to-head clash between Eden Hazard and Pablo Zabaleta. Hazard has given Zabaleta considerable problems when they've faced one another in the Premier League - the Argentine gets too tight, and can't cope with Hazard's incredible turn of speed.

With Vincent Kompany also regularly moving too high up the pitch to close down opponents, quick one-twos could see Hazard skip in behind. I fancy Zabaleta to be shown a card, and will back as low at 3.412/5 here.

The second area involves City playing through-balls for Sergio Aguero, whose pace will test John Terry and Gary Cahill. However, City will need to get players into dangerous positions between the lines to play the passes - which means Silva will be crucial. The Spaniard is also excellent at creating space for teammates in that zone, so don't be surprised if Milner or Fernandinho move into dangerous positions unexpectedly, and try to thread passes through to Aguero.

The third key consideration is Chelsea's attacking set-pieces, where they could have a significant height advantage over Manchester City. They'll play at least five excellent headers of the ball, and City are likely to lack significant height - although Pellegrini will probably select Aleksandar Kolarov, and perhaps even Lampard, to guard against his players being exposed in these situations.

Nevertheless, in a tight game I think set-pieces could be crucial, and I'll back Terry to open the scoring at 40.039/1 - he's often been a real threat this season. Matic, Cahill, Branislav Ivanovic and Drogba could also be dangerous.

Overall, I'm not sure we should be expecting an open, exciting game between these two sides - with the likes of Fernando, Fernandinho, Ramires, Matic and Milner in the midfield zone, it might be something of a scrap with only flashes of brilliance from the likes of Hazard, Oscar and Silva.

A draw suits Chelsea, and I'm always confident Mourinho knows how to set his team up to win a point.

Recommended Bets
Back Zabaleta to be shown a card at 3.412/5
Back Terry at first goalscorer at 40.039/1

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

A title decider in January? I’m not sure I would go that far but a win for Chelsea will produce an eight point gap between these two and the Blues will be very, very short in the Premier League Winners market if they do beat City. Chelsea booked their place in the Capital One Cup final this week after a battling 120 minutes of midweek action, only time will tell if that win has come at any cost, with the possible suspension of Diego Costa for three games and potentially picking up injuries to the likes of Branislav Ivanovic, Filipe Luis and Cesc Fabregas.

Of course, Jose Mourinho’s side recently suffered an embarrassing FA Cup exit at home to Bradford City and they have had a few blemishes recently dropping league points AWAY at Newcastle, Southampton and Tottenham, the key thing is the league blemishes were all on the road! At Stamford Bridge, the Blues have conceded three goals this campaign, keeping five clean sheets in a row and still have a 100% win rate with 10 league wins from 10 fixtures in front of their own fans.

City have their own problems, winning just one of their last four league outings and also suffering an early, embarrassing FA Cup exit at home against Middlesborough. Yaya Toure and new signing Wilfried Bony are still in Africa, as Ivory Coast have progressed through the group stages of the Africa Cup of Nations and it will be interesting to see if Frank Lampard lines up against his former club!

I am sure neither of these sides would have wanted to come into this massive showdown under these conditions and both managers look like going into it without key players so they have ready-made excuses if they lose it. Which is why, I think avoiding defeat may be foremost in both their minds and the draw for me at 3.55 makes the most appeal.

In-play Football Tips: Red card to appear late in Celtic v Rangers

After a shaky start, Celtic are in contention for four trophies

Michael Lintorn studies in-play trends for Celtic v Rangers, Augsburg v Hoffenheim and Monaco v Lyon...

Celtic v Rangers
Sunday, 13:30
Live on BBC One Scotland

Match Odds: Celtic 1.351/3, Rangers 10.5n/a, The Draw 5.95/1

It has been ages since such a claim was viable but Scotland quite possibly hosts the most intriguing of all Sunday's contests as Old Firm juggernauts Celtic and Rangers are reunited for the first time in almost three years in the League Cup semi-finals. A clash with Dundee United awaits the winners.

One of the first things you think of when it comes to this fixture is the sendings off: there have been eight in nine derbies. However, three of the most recent four came very late - in the 75th minute or beyond - creating interesting in-play possibilities, for instance holding out for bigger odds than the current price of 2.427/5, or even attempting a pre-match lay in the market with a view to Cashing Out.

Augsburg v Hoffenheim
Sunday, 16:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Match Odds: Augsburg 2.427/5, Hoffenheim 3.211/5, The Draw 3.55n/a

The Bundesliga is back, and the embarrassing underperformance of Borussia Dortmund, coupled with the continuing struggles of other historic forces like Hamburg, Werder Bremen and Stuttgart has invited Augsburg and Hoffenheim to mount Champions League challenges. Augsburg will go joint-third if they win this game, while Hoffenheim would move within a point of the top four.

The trend to be aware of in this encounter is that Augsburg have given up the opening goal in five successive Bundesliga matches. Whenever they have conjured a response by the 55th minute, they have gone on to win - they haven't drawn all season - yet if they don't net by then, they lose to nil.

Monaco v Lyon
Sunday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Match Odds: Monaco 2.226/5, Lyon 3.8514/5, The Draw 3.3512/5

Ligue 1 was supposed to lose any semblance of competitiveness when Paris St-Germain were taken over by wealthy Qatari investors in 2011, with the outcome of title races expected to be more predictable than during Lyon's seven-year domination from 2001 to 2008.

Yet three years on from Montpellier's sensational upset, a gripping three-team fight has developed, and Lyon have the opportunity to reassert a four-point advantage over Marseille and Paris St-Germain if they do what nobody has done since September and win away to Monaco.

A run of seven straight league victories implies a better chance than their odds of 3.8514/5 do, and they haven't lost a league game that they led since August. Indeed, the past five times that they have fired first - always by the 40th minute and four times by Alexandre Lacazette - they have won to nil.