Does the market understand the home and away dynamics of the Davis Cup?

The Davis Cup is tennis’ premier team event, and is arguably the biggest example of a home/away concept seen in most other sports. This article assesses whether there is a home field advantage for nations in the Davis Cup, and if the market takes this into account?

The advantage of playing at home in the Davis Cup

126 nations entered the 2015 Davis Cup, while the elite 16 participate in the knock-out World Group, on a yearly basis. 

The eight teams that lose in the World Group first round participate in a relegation play-off with the eight winners from Zone Group One, with the eight winners participating in the quarter-finals.

As the main team event in tennis, the Davis Cup is the only event where nations have home advantage, as the Hopman Cup team exhibition is held in Australia. 

The rules for deciding who plays at home are simple - the venue is reversed from the two nations’ previous meeting.

Home nations theoretically have a big advantage, as they are able to choose the venue, and surface, for the tie. 

The 2014 Davis Cup quarter-final tie between Italy and Great Britain provides a good example of the benefits to choosing the venue. 

Italy were the designated home team, and chose to play the tie on clay in Naples.  This suited their players - Fabio Fognini (an out-and-out clay courter) and Andreas Seppi - whilst negating Great Britain’s edge of having the highest ranked player in the tie, Andy Murray – his ineffectiveness on clay has been well documented. 

Ultimately, Murray’s rubber against Fognini was the crucial match in the tie, and the Italian prevailed in straight sets. 

If the tie had been played on any other surface, and in particular the Grass or Indoor Hard surfaces preferred by Great Britain, Murray would have been an overwhelming favourite against, but clay made the ability differential between the two players much smaller.

With the surface advantage considered, it's logical that home teams should win ties more often than 50% of the time. The table below shows the results of the outright team markets in the World Group between 2012 and 2014, with a hypothetical £100 bet placed on the home nation using Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices:

Year

Matches

Home wins

Win %

P/L

ROI

2012

15

9

60

-382

-25.5

2013

15

10

66.7

30

2

2014

15

10

66.7

-175

-11.7

Overall

45

29

64.4

-527

-11.7

Home teams have an advantage but are over-valued

The statistics clearly indicate that home teams have an advantage, with 29 of the 45 ties won by the home nation. 

However for betting purposes, it's clear that the market factors in this advantage, and with a -11.7% return on investment, it would appear that home teams are over-rated by outright bettors.

The table below shows further evidence to this assertion, showing the results of all the individual rubbers (including relegation playoffs) in the World Group. As before, a £100 hypothetical bet was applied for all home nation players:

Year

Matches

Home wins

Win %

P/L

ROI

2012

76

48

63.2

-844

-11.1

2013

77

50

64.9

-462

-6

2014

81

50

61.7

-348

-4.3

Overall

234

148

63.2

-1654

-7.1

It's clear home players enjoy an advantage, with consistent win percentages over 60%. Despite this, blindly backing home players generated highly negative figures, with a return on investment of -7.1% from 234 matches.

The data illustrates that home teams and players do enjoy an edge in matches, but this edge is somewhat over-rated by the betting market. 

Backing home players and nations should only be considered in very select circumstances, and value looks to exist on backing away players and nations instead. 

Further research to try and find value on away players who are competent on the home nation’s choice of surface is highly recommended for Davis Cup betting.

Click here to see the latest ATP odds.

Great reasons to bet Australian Sports at Pinnacle Sports

The Australian sporting calendar is in full swing with AFL, Super 15 and NRL providing a betting bonanza. Find out how low margins and high limits are two reasons why Aussie bettors should be betting at Pinnacle Sports.

The ‘Big Three’ Australian Sports

To prove our commitment and passion for Australian Sports we’ve improved our offerings for the ‘Big Three’ Australian markets – AFL, Super 15 and NRL.

We’ve made significant enhancements to our Handicap, Money Line and Total points markets across these three sports.

We offer you the best odds across the industry, and unlike the majority of other bookmakers winners are welcome, i.e. we won’t ban you if you are a successful bettor.

The AFL is in full swing and we have unbeatable odds for every week of the season as the Hawks try to win their third straight title.

The 2015 Super 15 season exploded into life in February, and you can bet on all games at Pinnacle Sports, while close to game day props are also available. Can the Waratahs defend their title?

The much anticipated 2015 NRL season is underway, can the Sydney Roosters defend their title or will there be another name on the cup this year?

Unrivalled Margins on Australian Sports

We are offering unrivalled margins of just 2.5% for Money Lines and Handicaps on the ‘Big Three’ Australian sports, with Totals at 3.84%. This is much smaller compared to our competitors who offer margins ranging from 5-6%. 

So what does this mean for you the bettor? 

In layman’s terms, betting with the lowest margins at Pinnacle Sports will give you better odds for your favourite Australian sports, presenting you with the best potential value on the market, which translate to bigger potential wins.

Click here to understand the fundamentals of how margins work, including how to calculate them yourself.

Huge limits give bettors the chance to win more

We have also raised the limits you can bet on Australian Sports to demonstrate how serious we are about offering a committed service and confirm ourselves as the best bookmaker for Australian Sports betting. 

Below is a table outlining the standard limits for the ‘Big Three’ Australian sports, but will vary game-to-game, and may increase in key matches:

Sport

Handicap (AUD)

Money Line (AUD)

Totals (AUD)

AFL

$19,000

$13,000

$3,000

Super 15

$13,000

$6,000

$3,000

NRL

$26,000

$13,000

$3,000

Still want to bet more? As bettors at Pinnacle Sports you can build positions with successive bets to increase your stake and therefore, potential winnings.

You can rebet up to the maximum limit – whether the price has changed or not – once a short period of time has elapsed.

Winners are welcome - we don't restrict profitable players

Unlike other bookmakers offering odds on Australian Sports – who are prone to closing successful bettors accounts – Pinnacle Sports welcomes winning players.

Not only do we not restrict winning players, we encourage them. The reason is down to our low margin approach, which needs sharp players to shape markets and generate volume.

With winner’s welcome, best odds, unrivalled margins and huge limits on AFL, Super 15 Rugby and NRL, Pinnacle Sports is the smart choice when betting on Australian Sports.

NBA Head Trader has his say on the Playoffs

Ahead of the first NBA Playoff games Pinnacle Sports' NBA head trader gives his thoughts on the First round games in both the Western and Eastern Conferences. Do you agree with our NBA oddsmaker?

Western Conference – First Round Playoffs

Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans 

Exciting times for both teams.

The Warriors posted the best record in the NBA at 67-15 - despite playing in the power-packed West - while going a terrifying 39-2 at home, the joint-second best record in NBA history.  

The Warriors outscored their opponents for the season by a whopping average of 10.1 points per game

Likely MVP winner Stephen Curry leads an athletic, smart, deep group, which can dominate, on either end of the court.  The Warriors outscored their opponents for the season by a whopping average of 10.1 points per game.

The Pelicans return to the playoffs for the first time in the post Chris Paul era, led by 22-year-old PF/C starlet Anthony Davis.

The Warriors won the season series 3-1, but two of the Pelicans losses came without Davis on the court, while they won the final meeting quite recently, a 103-100 home victory.

Bet the Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans series now.

L.A. Clippers vs. San Antonio Spurs 

The best first round match-up in terms of talent – possibly ever. 

The Clippers were white-hot down the stretch, winning 14 of their final 15 games, but with few challenging opponents. 

Home court edge keeps this from being an obvious Spurs' advance.  The Clippers have a potent trio of Paul, Griffin and Jordan...comparative team depth is a big disadvantage for them against the Spurs, but not quite as relevant in the playoffs.

The defending champions Spurs also crushed the end of their schedule, winning 11 of 12 and 21 of 25. 

Kahwi Leonard and a healthier Tony Parker were the difference-makers in their late season ascension, which nonetheless was derailed in their loss to the Pelicans on the final night.

This season they split their four meetings. The Clippers won the last two, but both teams have been dominant since then. 

The Spurs swept aside the Clippers in the playoffs three years ago, however much has changed for LA, in particular, since then.

See the latest odds on the L.A. Clippers vs. San Antonio Spurs series.

Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks

A Texas war.

From the owners to the players, these two franchises just don't like each other, adding spice to the natural playoff intensity.

The Rockets have had a terrific season, despite Center Dwight Howard missing half their games (he's fairly healthy now), and several others being in and out of the line-up. 

James "The Beard" Harden is the biggest reason, with both his beautiful and crafty offense and his noticeably improved defense and leadership.

The Mavs are always a threat under the savvy guidance of Coach Carlisle but Dirk has clearly dropped off this year, the addition of Rajon Rondo has had limited success, and the team D beyond Tyson Chandler, is awful.

Houston won the season series 3-1, while Howard missed three of those games, including the only Rocket loss.

Get the best odds for the Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks series.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Without the sex appeal of the other West match-ups, but someone has to advance.

The Blazers have been hit hard by recent injuries, most notably to Wes Matthews, a fine 3-pt shooter, ace defender and vocal team leader. 

Aldridge and Batum aren't too healthy and Matthews' back-up Aaron Afflalo will miss the post-season.  The Blazers can score with Aldridge and Lillard, but their defence isn't playoff caliber right now.

The 2014-5 edition of the Grizzlies is familiar...you either like their NBA-rare "Grit-n-Grind" approach to the game, or you don't. 

Memphis possess good leadership and play tough D most of the time, but they haven't solved their outside shooting deficiencies enough.

See the latest odds for the Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trail Blazers series.

Eastern Conference – First Round Playoffs

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics

JAMES & CO. vs. the Celtic kids.

Lebron James has helped this fresh blend of Cavaliers come together just in time to give him a shot at a fifth consecutive Finals.

Kyrie Irving has finally matched the hype surrounding him, whereas Kevin Love has proven an awkward fit so far.  

Lebron James has helped this fresh blend of Cavaliers come together just in time to give him a shot at a fifth consecutive Finals

The Cavs astutely added to their core around mid-season - Timofey Mozgov, JR Smith and Iman Shumpert are a huge reason the Cavs may go far.  There is a ton of O here, but are these guys ready for the sort of D it usually takes to go deep in the playoffs?

Coach Stevens has worked some real magic in leading his Boston charges to a great season finish and another franchise battle with a Lebron James' team. 

Stevens is a young master of preparation and inspiration - don't be shocked if the Celtics win a couple of games. 

They split the series 2-2, although the two losses came in the past week with the Cavs somewhat or completely taking it easy.

Bet the Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics series now.

Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards

Looks like a good, even match between two unpredictable teams.

The Raptors began the season on fire at 24-7.  An injury to DeMar DeRozan eventually caught up with them, Kyle Lowry ran out of gas and their defense disintegrated. 

Just lately they appear to have found themselves enough to be a bit of a tough outfit again.

The Wizards have also gone through phases of looking solid, only to look miserable for another stretch.  PG John Wall remains their engine on both sides of the court.

Toronto swept the series 3-0, but these teams haven't squared off in two months, which could be a factor here. 

See the latest odds for the Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards series. 

Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Expressway series (90 miles apart).

The Bulls' season understandably has focused on Derrick Rose's bumpy comeback season from nearly two full years off. 

Fortunately, room has been made for Chicago to embrace 34-year-old Pau Gasol and his return to All-Star form.  Gasol has posted double-doubles (10+ pts and rebounds) in nearly 70% of the Bulls' games. 

Noah, Gibson and Hinrich are all a bit nicked, while Rose recently returned from an in-season surgery.  He looks decent at times, but not peaking with the sort of form he rates to need to fuel a long Chicago playoff run.

The Bucks are a major surprise.  Jason Kidd took the helm of some decent youngsters and a batch of middling veterans. 

Give the players credit, but Kidd and his staff at least as much for getting this motley crew to believe and play with a lot of energy (especially on D) through most of the 82-game grind.

In the Regular season the Bulls took 3 of 4 from Milwaukee, with the Bucks winning the most recent clash, at home.

Get the best odds for the Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks series.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Brooklyn Nets

Which Hawks will show up?

Atlanta had a great season, which was a big surprise. They locked up the #1 East seed with a few weeks to go, having gone on a spectacular 33-2 run from late November to the end of January. 

They've gone 20-14 since, but they were being careful with starters' minutes for the final 4-5 weeks.  Other than Paul Millsap's shoulder issue, the Hawks should be quite fresh. 

They have no prominent stars, but plenty of solid talent. ATL has a great court dynamic/chemistry, featuring unselfishness and fine communication.

The Nets survived the 8th seed battle by the skin of their teeth. Brook Lopez's return to 2012-13 form toward the finish line was the big story. 

However, team speed is lacking, as is the sort of consistency on either end of the court to pull off a major upset.

In the Regular season the Hawks beat the Nets in all four meetings, and two were heavy.

See the latest odds for the Atlanta Hawks vs. Brooklyn Nets series.

Do the odds on favourites Arsenal and Liverpool offer true value?

The FA Cup reaches the semi-final stage at the weekend with underdogs Reading and Aston Villa taking on Arsenal and Liverpool, respectively at Wembley Stadium. This FA Cup semi-final betting preview looks at the odds to see if big favourites Arsenal and Liverpool offer any value?

The cream tends to rise to the top in the FA Cup

Much folklore has developed around the rich history of the competition, most notably the view that the cup is a great leveller, allowing unconsidered teams to surprise their more fancied opponents.

However, the reality is that despite unexpected results are occur, there is no evidence that the minnows derive an extra advantage merely because the match is an FA cup tie.

The gap between the richest Premier League teams and the rest is evident not only over 38 league games, but also in outcomes of recent FA cup competitions.

Since 2000, 13 of the 15 finals have been won by one of the Premier League’s big five sides - Man United, Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal - only Portsmouth and Wigan having broken that streak.

In the last 14 years 78% of semi-finalists have been one of the big five EPL teams

An unseeded draw and the unforgiving nature of knockout football, may occasionally scupper the chances of that year’s best all round side, but since 2000, it has been odds on that at least one finalist will be a member of the top five elite.

In the last 14 years 78% of semi-finalists have been one of the big five teams. So the culmination of this year’s competition would appear typical of the recent past.

Therefore, recent FA cup history, along with league form, strongly favours defending champions Arsenal and Liverpool.

Who will progress to the FA Cup final?

Identifying the most likely finalists is reasonably straightforward, but attaching probabilities to the individual match outcomes to compare these to the odds requires some simple data crunching.

Liverpool’s clash with Aston Villa is the most straightforward as both are Premier League teams. The Reds, after Monday night had a goal difference of +11 from 32 games or an average difference of 0.34 goals per game, compared to a goal difference of -21 from 33 games or -0.64 per game for Villa.

So over the season so far, with no weighting for more recent results, Liverpool average goal difference per game is 0.98 of a goal superior to Villa’s, with neither side enjoying home advantage on Sunday.

Similar calculations using the scoring and conceding rates of both sides at home and away, estimate that Liverpool are around 9 tenths of a goal superior to Villa on neutral turf and using the Poisson distribution and methods described in this linked post, give Liverpool (1.571) a 61% chance of winning in 90 minutes, with Villa’s (6.650) chances at 17% and a draw at 22%.

Reading, of course do not currently play in the Premier League. But teams from the Championship do frequently meet EPL teams in the domestic cups and three teams swap places through relegation and promotion each year.

Using these collateral form lines we can estimate that the best Championship teams are typically as good as the 16th or 17th best Premier League teams. 

So we can estimate in terms of goal difference, the current quality gap between Reading and the promotion contenders in the Championship and Arsenal and the teams just above the EPL relegation places. 

Arsenal are around 2.4 goals per game superior to Reading at a neutral venue

Arsenal are likely to be around 2.4 goals per game superior to Reading at a neutral venue, which translates to a 85% chance for the Gunners, 4% for the Royals and 11% for a draw. Reading’s odds of 15.750 reflect this, while Arsenal are available at 1.243 on the 1X2 market.

These baseline numbers partly omit situational factors. Liverpool may be a better team now they have a more settled attack since Sturridge’s return from injury, while experience of both Wembley and the big occasion could help to favour Arsenal even more strongly against Reading.

For the Saturday evening game, where Arsenal are clearly superior, total goals tend to increase as the talent gap between the teams widens. However, bettors should remember sides have no real incentive to score lots in a single knockout game. Reading can be backed at +1.5 and 2 on the handicap with Pinnacle Sports.

And similarly, where a team is favoured by around 0.9 of a goal, as Liverpool are against Villa, the average number of total goals scored would usually be an above average 2.7. However, 61% of Villa’s games have had two goals or fewer, this season, including both league encounters with Liverpool. The handicap is set at -1 in favour of Liverpool.

Click here to see the latest FA Cup semi-final odds.

Be part of the action with our new NBA Live product

To coincide with the NBA Playoffs Pinnacle Sports are launching a significantly improved industry leading live betting product. Live NBA 2.0 puts you in the heart of the action with non-stop betting from tip-off to buzzer. Find out what NBA Live 2.0 means for your playoff betting and enter our competition for a chance to win a cash prize of $1000, and limited edition merchandise.

What is NBA Live 2.0?

NBA Live 2.0 drastically improves your live betting experience putting you at the heart of the action. Here's why:

Bet continuously

Previously you could only bet NBA live during a commercial break, however because odds are constantly updated with NBA Live 2.0, you'll be able to bet continuously without delay as the action unfolds on court.

No delay

Unlike other bookmakers there is no delay on our odds, so once you place a bet you're guaranteed those odds – live means live. 

All markets including team totals

You can now bet live NBA on all markets, including team totals for the first time. We also plan to offer a number of other derivatives such as first half betting as the product develops.

Take your chance to win $1,000 & limited edition merchandise

To celebrate the launch of Live NBA 2.0, we are offering you the chance to win $1,000 in your account and limited edition Pinnacle Sports basketball merchandise.

It's simple to enter:

All you have to do to qualify is place one Live NBA bet* on any of the opening 8 games of the 1st round of the 2015 Playoffs. It's that simple. Check the schedule of 1st round games below:

Eastern Conference - First Round

April 18th: Washington Wizards vs. Toronto Raptors (10:30 am PDT)

April 18th: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls (4:00 pm PDT)

April 19th: Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (12:00 pm PDT)

April 19th: Brooklyn Nets vs. Atlanta Hawks (2:30pm PDT)

Western Conference - First Round

April 18th: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors (12:30 pm PDT)

April 18th: Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets (6:30 pm PDT)

April 19th: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Memphis Grizzlies (5:00pm PDT)

April 19th: L.A. Clippers vs. San Antonio Spurs (7:30 pm PDT)

Enjoy the excitement of non-stop Live NBA betting and you could be $1,000 richer.

Prize structure:

1st Prize:

$1,000 accredited to Pinnacle Sports account

Pinnacle Sports basketball Jersey, headband, sweatband & mini-ball

2 Runner-up Prizes:

$500 accredited to Pinnacle Sports account

Pinnacle Sports basketball Jersey, headband, sweatband & mini-ball

For more chances to win limited edition Pinnacle Sports basketball merchandise throughout the Playoffs follow @PinnacleSports.

Login & bet now

* A minimum bet of $5 or equivalent in local currency 

Terms & Conditions

The Live NBA 2.0 competition is open to new and existing customers of Pinnacle Sports, one entry per customer.

To be eligible for the competition you must have placed a minimum $5 graded live NBA bet on any of the eight opening games of the 2015 Playoffs.

The winners will be drawn at random on April 21st, 2015 from eligible entrants.

Cash prizes will be credited to the winner’s Pinnacle Sports account in US Dollars or equivalent local currency, with no rollover requirements.

Subject to these terms, the winner will be credited/emailed within 5 days of the prize draw taking place.

In the case of any disputes, the decision taken by Pinnacle Sports shall be final.

In the case of abuse or fraud, Pinnacle Sports reserves the right to cancel the competition at any time.

15 Eurovision betting trends

The 2015 Eurovision Song Contest commences on May 19th with 40 countries competing for the crown. This article highlights a number of Eurovision song contest trends, to help your betting.

1 – G’Day Australia

Australia make their debut at Eurovision, making them only the second country outside of Europe to compete after Morocco in 1980. Guy Sebastian’s “Tonight Again” is available at 15.090 to win.

1:27 – A quick Finnish

Finland’s Eurovision entry “Aina mun pitää” (I always have to) by PKN is the shortest song to be entered in the history of Eurovision at 1 minute and 27 seconds. They are 13.840 to win the competition.

2nd – The curse of Eurovision

Throughout the history of Eurovision, no country has won when performing second.

2 (Again) – Will Estonia celebrate yesterday?

Estonia’s entry “Goodbye to Yesterday” by Elina Born & Stig Rasta has them as 3rd favourites at 7.210. They previously won back in 2001, which is their solitary win to date.

3 – Italy to take flight?

Italy are second favourites to win Eurovision this year at 4.170 with their entry “Grande Amore” by Il Volo (The Flight). The group’s album was released in Italy in February, and after three weeks was certified platinum. Should Italy triumph it would take them up to three Eurovision wins.

6 – Swede success?

The favourite (2.580) is Sweden’s entry “Heroes” by Mans Zelmerlow. Should Sweden win, they would become the second most successful nation with six Eurovision wins.

6 – Home Advantage

The host country has won Eurovision on six occasions; most recently in Ireland in 1993 and 1994. Austria are hosting this year.

7 – Sing when you’re winning

Ireland hold the record of the most Eurovision wins with seven. They tasted victory in 1970, 1980, 1987, 1992, 1993, 1994 and 1996.

7 – It’ll be all white on the night

Strangely performers wearing white outfits have won Eurovision more times than any other colour.

12 - Maximum points

Sweden’s entry in 2012 - “Euphoria” - holds the record for being award the most maximum number of points - 12 - from 18 countries.

15 - Good but not good enough

The United Kingdom have finished as Eurovision runners-up a record 15 times. However their most recent near miss (and best finish) hasn’t been since 1998.

16 - Nul Points

Since the introduction of the current scoring system in 1975, there have been 16 entries that have received no points - the most recent in 2009.

28 – Female advantage

Female solo artists hold an advantage over their male counterparts, with 28 wins compared to just seven.

29 – English Tone

The last seven Eurovision winners were sung in English, in fact, in the last decade there has only been one winning song not in English, which was in 2007 when Serbia triumphed with “Molitva”.

387 – Record Points

Norway currently hold the record for the most points won at Eurovision, when Alexander Rybak’s song “Fairytale” scored 387 points in 2009.

Click here for the latest Eurovision song contest odds.

Is there value betting on recent Junior Slam winners

When young players breakthrough onto the main ATP Tour, there is little statistical data on them. This article looks at whether the tennis market can accurately assess a Junior Grand Slam winner’s ability once they start playing ATP main draw matches.

When two elite players go head-to-head it's very rare for either to offer strong statistical value, given there is a plethora of historical data on them to interpret.

Therefore pre-match betting is unlikely to provide bettors with an edge, unless the bookmakers make a big mistake.

However, very young players - who haven’t played on the ATP tour - are far less exposed. Therefore with a lack of statistical data, it's very difficult to price up their matches accurately.

A comparison can be drawn to horse racing. A veteran horse will have raced many times, which will allow bettors to make an accurate assessment of their level, while a two-year-old may have only raced a couple of times, making it very difficult to know both their current level and potential.

In tennis, it's difficult to gauge whether or not young players will be over or underrated by the markets. 

As mentioned in previous articles, subjective assertions are generally to be avoided, which is why quantitative statistics are much preferred.  

On this basis, an assessment was made for the first ten ATP main draw matches for male Junior Grand Slam winners between 2010-2014. Only matches where a set was completed were included, and all prices used were Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices:

Player

Current Rank

Matches

Win %

P/L

ROI

Tiago Fernandes

2040

0

N/A

0

N/A

Agustin Velotti

314

2

0

-200

-100

Marton Fucsovics

154

4

25

96

24

Jack Sock

45

10

30

-112

-11.2

Jiri Vesely

48

10

20

-623

-62.3

Bjorn Fratangelo

166

0

N/A

0

N/A

Luke Saville (2)

186

6

33.33

-145

-24.17

Oliver Golding

717

3

0

-300

-100

Kimmer Coppejans

150

2

0

-200

-100

Filip Peliwo (2)

337

5

40

423

84.6

Nick Kyrgios

37

10

50

704

70.4

Christian Garin

233

4

25

345

86.25

Gianluigi Quinzi

373

0

N/A

0

N/A

Borna Coric

59

10

50

499

49.9

Alexander Zverev

129

10

40

152

15.2

Andrey Rublev

389

5

40

147

29.4

Noah Rubin

637

2

0

-200

-100

Omar Jasika

444

1

0

-100

-100

Overall

84

32.14

486

5.79

No guarantee of success

There are a number of statistics that should interest tennis bettors. The first is how few Junior Slam winners have actually made a significant breakthrough - just four of the 18 Junior Slam winners from 2010 onwards have achieved a top 100 ranking.

Indeed, the two Juniors who won it twice, Filip Peliwo and Luke Saville, are currently ranked well outside the top 150. 

In addition, Oliver Golding, who gave Britons hope for the future with a US Open Junior triumph in 2011, has already retired, having grown disillusioned with the sport.

It's clear to see that Junior success does not guarantee main ATP Tour success, and even carving out a career in the sport is far from a given.

The big four

However, four Junior Slam winners - Nick Kyrgios, Borna Coric, Jack Sock and Jiri Vesely – are currently ranked inside the top 50. Only Vesely, with two wins from his first ten matches at ATP level, had a shocking start to life on the main tour.

Kyrgios and Coric had superb success, both winning half of their first ten matches and recording a huge return on investment.

It's also apparent how experience tended to help these players - all the players with 10 or more main tour appearances are ranked inside the top 150. 

On this basis it’s reasonable to assume that these young players learn fast, and being from a major nation, where players frequently benefit from wild cards to big events is beneficial. 

Tennis betting takeaway

Overall, these Junior Grand Slam winners recorded a solid 5.790% return on investment from 84 main tour matches. This hints that these players are slightly under-rated by the market, albeit from a relatively small sample.

With current speculation about a ‘changing of the guard’, and a great deal of hype surrounding many young players, bettors may be interested in conducting further research to see if these results are replicated over a bigger sample, as it would provide them with a major edge in the tennis betting markets.

Click here to see the latest ATP odds.

Are soccer games more unpredictable towards the end of the season?

It's said that as the soccer season draws to an end, the games become more unpredictable. To help your soccer betting this article looks at the influence of motivation towards the end of the campaign, and analyses the data to see if games actually become more unpredictable towards the end of the season?

The question of motivation is difficult to analyse. A soccer match lasts 90 minutes and any apparent sub-par performance can be marked as a side lacking effort, when it's merely variation.

At the end of a season motivations throughout the league differ. Certain teams are embroiled in relegation, others are fighting for European places or the league title, while a select few are merely playing for increased prize money through a slightly higher mid table finishing position.

Does this therefore affect the way you bet and should you factor in both teams motivation for the game?

The curious case of May

We can test this by looking at the record of teams at both ends of the table over the first 30 and final 8 games of the season.

The month of May's results, in particular, appear to be abnormal compared to the previous nine months of the Premier League. Let's look at the data.

Figures hint at a slight fall-off in performance for the league’s best teams

From 2002 to 2013, shots on target increase by 5% in May from the previous August and there were 7% more goals and 11% fewer fouls.

The decreased rate of fouling, hints at a less combative approach overall, although this does not disqualify matches where both teams will be desperate to secure a win.

The desire for points and the ability to deliver wins should be strongest at the top of the table. Individual player motivation to keep their places in the league’s top squads will also be a factor.

A third of Premier League titles since 2002/03 have been decided by two points or fewer and the final participation place in the following season’s Champions League has gone down to a margin of three points or fewer 50% of the time.

Since 2002/03 the top five sides (after 30 matches) had accrued a combined average of 2.01 points per game.

However, in the remaining eight matches, this rate fell to 1.95 points per game, with 55% of these sides faring worse in the final run in.

Interestingly these figures hint at a slight fall-off in performance for the league’s best teams at a time when points become vitally important for title hopes or European qualification.

In comparison, those sides who reach 30 games and find themselves in one of the three relegation spots since 2002/03 have averaged 0.8 points per game, and of these around a third managed to avoid the drop in May.

60% of these struggling teams improved their ability to win points over the final eight matches.

As a group they upped their production to just over one point a game and nearly 60% of these struggling teams improved their ability to win points over the final eight matches.

Serie A – It's all about the draw

Historically motivational related results, late in a campaign, occur more regularly in Serie A.

Draws are difficult to predict and a side, who records lots of draws one season often return to more usual, levels subsequently. The average implied probability for a draw in Serie A over the last nine completed seasons is around 0.28.

However, many late season games have draws priced at much shorter odds. This strongly implies that for a variety of reasons, a draw is more likely to occur.

Of the 20 shortest priced draws since 2005/06, a more typical draw price would have led to 6 expected draws, the odds implied 11 would end stalemated, yet in reality 14 ended level, half of them by a 0-0 score line.

So the shortened odds for the draw were justified. Almost exclusively these matches involve two teams who were placed just above the relegation places, where a point each would assist both side’s survival chances.

This data highlights more abnormal results towards the latter eight games of the season compared to the previous 30. Soccer bettors should consider motivation alongside other factors such as form, natural regression or weakened team selection, while Serie A should be judged as a special case, especially where a draw is mutually beneficial.

The Masters by numbers: 15 Masters trends

Bettors aiming to make a profit at the 2015 Masters should read these 15 Masters golf betting trends which give an insight into the numbers for the previous 78 tournaments.

0 -  Avoid the par 3 contest

The par 3 contest was first introduced in 1960 and is traditionally played on the Wednesday before the tournament starts. Interestingly for bettors no par 3-contest winner has also won the Masters in the same year. Can someone break the duck in 2015?

1 – Anchor Putter

In 2013 Adam Scott (21.110) became the first player to win the Masters using a belly or broom-handle putter.

1 – Don’t expect a rookie to win

Only one rookie has ever won the Masters – Fuzzy Zoeller. The American beat the odds in 1979, and despite Australian Jason Day (14.370) finishing 2nd in 2011, it appears that course knowledge has a pivotal bearing on performance at Augusta.  Shane Lowry can be backed at 111.910 to become the first since 1979.

3 – Tough to defend title

Only Jack Nicklaus (1965, 1966), Tiger Woods (2001, 2002) and Nick Faldo (1989,1990) have defended their Masters title the following year since 1934. This highlights the difficulty Bubba Watson will face when he begins his defence, but odds of 11.240 make him the second favourite.

4 – Avoid the early leader

Just four champions – Craig Wood (1941), Arnold Palmer (1960), Jack Nicklaus (1972) and Ray Floyd (1976) – have led for all four rounds of the Masters.

5 – Beware the watery graves

Five holes – 11, 12, 13, 15 & 16 – on Augusta’s back nine have water waiting to trap an errant shot. Many Masters hopefuls have met a watery end during the 78 years of action at Augusta. (13) was the score carded by Tom Weiskopf on the par-3 12th hole in the 1980 Masters.

7 – Consider the Left-handers

Left-handers have won only nine major tournaments. However, they have won seven of the last 12 green jackets. Could Phil Mickelson (27.990) or Bubba Watson claim another major win?

12 – Biggest winning margin

Twelve was the biggest winning margin set by Tiger Woods when he won his first Masters back in 1997. Woods’ four-day score is also a record at 270.

14 – Make the cut 12 months earlier

Since the 2000 Masters every winner has made the cut in the year immediately preceding their victory. Does this eliminate Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia (45.380) who struggled 12 months ago?

15 – Settled by a playoff

The Masters has gone to a playoff on 15 occasions. Two of the previous three Masters have been decided by a playoff – Scott beating Angel Cabrera (85.660) in 2013, while Bubba Watson beat Louis Oosthuizen (60.510) in 2012.

16 – Can a European break the duck

No European has won the Masters since Jose-Maria Olazabal 16 years ago. Will it be 17 years without a European green jacket winner? Rory McIlroy goes in as the favourite, while Henrik Stenson (17.650) and Justin Rose (37.280) join him amongst the top of the Masters winner odds.

24 – Hole in one

There have been 24 hole-in-ones recorded at the Masters. Interestingly 15 of these have come at hole 16, a par 3 of 170 yards. In 2013 Jamie Donaldson (136.450) became only the fifth player to achieve the feat on hole six in the event’s 78-year history.

Interested in how bettors and bookmakers underweight rare events? Click here to read about the infamous Hole In One Gang who in 1991 made a profit from taking advantage of ill informed bookmakers on the probability of a hole-in-one at a tournament.

25-39 – Age trend

Every Masters winner this century was aged between 25 and 39, with those in their 30′s enjoying the most success – Bubba Watson was 35 last year.

That range covers most of the leading candidates, and for the first time Rory McIlroy - who turned 25 in May.

46 – Over the hill at 40

At the tender age of 46, Jack Nicklaus became the oldest winner of the Masters in 1986 – no one this century has won the masters in their 40′s.

63 & 75 – One round doesn’t win or ruin your chances

63 is the joint Augusta course round record set by Nick Price in 1986 and Greg Norman in 1996 – but neither man went on to win.

75 is the highest first-round score of an eventual winner, when Craig Stadler carded it in 1982. 

Click here for the latest 2015 Masters odds.

Why the usual suspects dominate the UCL knockout stage

This Champions League betting article looks at recent trends that help predict the Champions League winner, and why teams from England, Spain, Germany and Italy tend to dominate the UCL knockout stage.

The Champions League is dominated by the major soccer nations. You have to go back 11 tournaments to find a winner, in Porto, who didn’t hail from Spain, England, Italy, or Germany.

In the past decade domestic success 12 months earlier hasn’t guaranteed Champions League victory. Since Porto’s win, six of the subsequent ten winners failed to win their domestic league the previous season.

Since the tournaments expansion a defeat in the group stage is not fatal, and the two-legged nature of knockout games allows a team to recover from a single poor performance.

Winning your Champions League group

Although past events aren’t perfect indicators of future performance, a side which does particularly well in the group stage has gone on to lift the trophy frequently.

In the ten competitions since Porto’s win, just Liverpool, the following year and another Mourinho managed team in Inter in 2009/10 have lifted the trophy when qualifying from the group stages as a runner up.

17 of the last 20 finalists topped their group, so although the group phase only consists of six matches per team, it does appear to be sufficient in identifying the stronger teams.

Over the last decade Spain, England, Italy, followed by Germany have provided the winners, the bulk of which have topped their group with an average of 13 points.

Predicting the Champions League winner

This year English clubs have been eliminated prior to the Quarter-final stage and the teams represented instead are Monaco, Porto and PSG. History suggests none of these teams will progress to the final.

Juventus have the pedigree, but only finished runners-up in Group A, which leaves Atletico, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich as the four sides fitting the profile of recent successful teams – the odds at Pinnacle Sports to win the Champions League represent this.

Interestingly Juventus’ 9.650 could be down to a perceived easy last eight draw against Monaco, while Atletico’s longer price at 16.000 appears to factor in a difficult meeting with Real Madrid.

Historical profiling can be a fast way to spot betting opportunities but it merely confirms obvious preferences. It's no surprise to see Bayern Munich 3.050 and Barcelona 3.390 heading the betting markets.

To enhance your chances of predicting this year's Champions League winner you can go further and look at goal based data - performed particularly in this season’s top matches against similar levels of opposition.

Interlocking form to predict game outcomes

Although currently favourites to lift the trophy, Bayern Munich have yet to meet a Spanish rival, but they did play Manchester City twice in the group fixtures. City then went on to face Barcelona in the last 16.

We can therefore use the two favourites relative performances against a common opponent – Man City.

Similar interlocking form lines exist for all 32 sides which took part in the group phase, not only from games played in the Champions League, but also from domestic competition.

Therefore, an appraisal of the relative strengths of each team remaining in the Champions League can be made by comparing an objective rating, such as goal difference in competitive matches against the other 31 teams, which competed in the group phases.

Using this rating approach of interlocking form lines, the eight Quarter-finalists are all found in the top ten sides from this year’s Champions League.

Chelsea, of the already eliminated teams, are second in the ratings, buoyed by a fine domestic record against their fellow Champions League participants and Leverkusen are 5th.

Ranking prior to the QF stage of the Champions League

Team

Goal Rating

Bayern Munich

1.6

Atletico Madrid

1.3

Barcelona

1.2

Real Madrid

1.1

Porto

1.0

Monaco

0.9

Juventus

0.8

PSG

0.7

Very little separates the last eight sides based on their performance in the Champions League and against other domestic opponents who participated.

The clear exception is Bayern Munich (1.671) who are upwards of three tenths of a goal superior to their nearest rivals and would appear to be worthy favourites, especially facing an inexperienced Porto (5.800) side in the last eight.

Real Madrid’s (2.600) perfect qualifying record is tarnished by an unimpressive domestic record against Atletico (2.990). And Real’s city rivals would appear to present a formidable obstacle at the quarter final stage.

Barcelona (1.925) appear to play the weakest of the survivors in PSG (4.279), who are without key players in the first leg through suspension.

The final tie between Juventus (1.478) and Monaco (9.280) may be closer, based on collateral form, than the strong preference shown to the Italian team would appear to indicate.

This article has highlighted a number of historical betting trends that have been evident in teams winning the Champions League, and explained a concept to determine each team's relative strength.

Based on performance, both domestically against quality opposition and in the Champions League, only Bayern standout as superior of the remaining eight teams.

Click here to see the latest Champions League odds.