Landing on 3 & 7 in the NFL

Landing on 3 & 7 in the NFL

By Michael Gales Sep 26, 2012

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When betting on NFL handicaps (also known as spreads), bettors should be aware of two NFL key numbers: 3 and 7. These two victory margins are more common than any others, and understanding their importance can dramatically help your NFL handicap betting.

Why Are 3 & 7 the Key Numbers for NFL Handicaps?

From data collected since the start of the NFL* (in 1920), a massive 11.8% of games have finished with a winning margin of 3 points. The second most common was 7 points (7.4%), while the third-most frequent was 10 points (5.7%) – the two most frequent margins added together.

By adding the two most common winning margins together it works out that 3 and 7 point victories account for a massive 19.2% of all NFL games, and when added to the third most common, they account to 24.9% – a quarter of all results.

In more recent times, a study by Andy Iskoe over a 17-year period covering the 1990/2000s showed that 15.1% of games ended with a 3 point margin, with 7.1% at 7 points. The study also showed that 6 was the next most common margin, occurring 6% of the time.

The reason these key numbers arise more than any other is due to NFL scoring. For instance, three points are awarded for a field goal, while 7 points is the amount awarded for a touchdown and a successful conversion.

By adding the two most common winning margins together it works out that 3 and 7 point victories account for a massive 19.2% of all NFL games

How Key Numbers Affect Betting

Now that you’re familiar with the key numbers, you can use them as a barometer for what side of a handicap provides the best value. The general rule is that you should avoid betting when the line is at +2.5, +6.5, +9.5 and +3.5.

These numbers, which are enticingly close to the key numbers to tempt casual bettors, are designed to encourage you to bet on those outcomes. In truth, however, the bookmaker knows that probability is in his favour.

The same is true for the opposite side of the handicap – avoid backing at -3.5, -7.5, -10.5 and -4.5.

This also affects alternate markets, where bettors should be careful when buying or selling points across the key numbers. (Read about NFL alternate markets).

Bookmakers will often charge a lot to buy a point in your favour across a key number. If they are pricing 4, 5 or 6 as equally expensive, however, they’re simply trying to take advantage of uninformed bettors.

* Data collected up to 2012 NFL season

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