Are the odds stacked against the preseason favourites?

Are the odds stacked against the preseason favourites?

By Jack Ratcliffe Sep 3, 2013

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There’s an interesting phenomena in NFL betting. Teams picked as favourites forindividual matches are more reliable than those marked as preseason favourites who often disappoint. In fact, over the last ten seasons, only one preseason favourite has gone on to win the Super Bowl.

The only team to survive the “Curse of the Super Bowl Preseason Outrights” in the last decade was the Indianapolis Colts in 2006, who had odds of 7.000, and beat the Chicago Bears 29 – 17 in Florida.

See the table below for a rundown of pre-season favourites and the eventual winners over the last 10 years:

Pre-Season Winners Over The Last 10 Years

Year

Pre-Season Favourite

Eventual Champion

2001

St. Louis Rams

New England Patriots

2002

St. Louis Rams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2003

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New England Patriots

2004

Philadelphia Eagles

New England Patriots

2005

Indianapolis Colts/ Philiadelphia Eagles/ New England Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers

2006

Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts

2007

New England Patriots

New York Giants

2008

New England Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers

2009

New England Patriots

New Orleans Saints

2010

Indianapolis Colts

Green Bay Packers

2011

New England Patriots

New York Giants

2012

Green Bay Packers

Baltimore Ravens

This year’s favourite is the 5.760* San Francisco 49ers, who couldn’t manage one of the greatest comebacks in Super Bowl history last season and finished just one touchdown away from lifting the Lombardi Trophy.

However, in the last sevens years, no one of odds that short has succeeded in the NFL. The table below shows you the odds for the eventual winners for the last seven years:

Pre-Season Super Bowl Odds For Eventual Champions

Super Bowl

Year

Team

Preseason Odds

XLVII

2012

Ravens

14-1

XLVI

2011

Giants

20-1

XLV

2010

Packers

16-1

XLIV

2009

Saints

20-1

XLIII

2008

Steelers

20-1

XLII

2007

Giants

30-1

This year, the following teams have odds of 20.00* or less:

Favourite-To-Under 20.000 Range

Team Name

Odds

San Francisco 49ers

5.760

Denver Broncos

6.890

Seattle Seahawks

7.390

New England Patriots

9.020

Atlanta Falcons

15.200

Green Bay Packers

15.860

Houston Texans

16.840

New Orleans

18.890

So what’s behind this inability to correctly predict a correct favourite? There are numerous possibilities, so we’ll just list a few potential ideas below:

The draft system/no relegation in NFL makes talent more fairly distributed, so it’s more difficult to accurately predict how well teams will play each season

Even a small miscalculation in skill, when extrapolated over the many games played in a season, means that a season-long prediction is difficult

The market could be shifting as bettors allow bias for their teams outweigh rational thought, backing their favourites to win rather than an objectively better team

Pressure of being favourites

Playoff system should bias the best teams

Absence/ reasons for long winning streaks

It’s also important to remember exactly what the 49ers odds imply. Odds of 5.760* imply that the probability of San Francisco actually winning the Super Bowl is 17.4%. To put that in context, the New Orleans Saints’ (at 19.000*) have an implied probability of 5.29%, so just 12.1% lower than the 49ers, despite the odds difference being quite noticeable.

This pattern suggests that preseason is the perfect time to back longer teams and fade favourites, with bets on the longer teams potentially gaining more value as the season progresses when a clearer picture emerges.

Whatever happens, however, it goes without saying that there is a lot of value to be had if you can accurately predict the winner in the preseason. Even the smallest win in the last seven years would have netted you 130 on a 10 bet.

Click here for the latest NFL odds.

*Odds subject to change

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