Discussing WSOP short-stack chances… with the players

Discussing WSOP short-stack chances… with the players

By Gary Wise Sep 23, 2013

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A number of factors need to be considered when assessing the chances of the short-stacks at the WSOP main event final table. We went to the source – Mark Newhouse and David Benefield – to help us, help you, assess them.

With 190,675,000 chips in play amongst the nine remaining players at the WSOP, Benefield has 6,375,000 (3.34%) chips, while Newhouse has 7,350,000 (3.85%), easily the two smallest stacks – aka short stacks

The value of a chip

Chip Total & Current Odds

Player

Stack

Odds

JC Tran

38,000,000

3.93*

Amir Lehavot

29,700,000

6.06*

Marc Etienne

26,250,000

6.07*

Jay Farber

25,975,000

6.95*

Ryan Riess

25,875,000

6.98*

Sylvain Loosli

19,600,000

9.17*

Michiel Brummelhuis

11,275,000

15.97*

Mark Newhouse

7,350,000

23.97*

David Benefield

6,375,000

15.50*

How do we extrapolate the odds of each player winning? The simplest method is to determine what percentage of the chips in play their stack holds. By this notion, if there are 1,000,000 chips in play and a player has 300,000 chips, that player would have a 30% chance of winning the tournament. However, the calculation isn’t as simple as that.

“You have to account for something called the Independent Chip Model (ICM),” Newhouse explained. “Basically, the chips change value. My 7.5 million is probably worth more than 7.5 million in JC’s stack. Chips I can gain are worth more than chips I can lose…if I lose my chips, I’m out. If I double up and lose half my stack, I’m not out. The shorter your stack, the greater the value of each chip.”

In other words, if Newhouse had twice the chips, he wouldn’t have twice the equity. Survival counts for something.

The effect of the prize jumps

Prize Structure

Position

Winnings

1st place

$8,359,531

2nd place

$5,173,170

3rd place

$3,727,023

4th place

$2,791,983

5th place

$2,106,526

6th place

$1,600,792

7th place

$1,225,224

8th place

$944,593

9th place

$733,324

“I think players will be tentative to play big pots early on. Most of the players will want to play a little more conservatively until Mark or I bust, locking in a higher payout.” Benefield theorised

If Benefield is right, the short stacks will have more time than normal to wait for an optimal moment to double up or otherwise increase their chip count.

Lights, camera, action

With players competing for previously unseen sums of money and the title of world champion under the watchful gaze of an international audience, they face a new kind of pressure. Both Newhouse and Benefield are veterans of televised poker, a fact that may play as an advantage.

“A lot of it is about experience, having been there before,” Newhouse enthused. “People like me, JC and David will make better reads, have the better timing, make better decisions than people who don’t have that experience. A less-experienced player might make a wrong read where JC would not, and the ramifications are huge.”

Benefield doesn’t see the advantage as clearly. “I think being comfortable in a very public setting, on camera, and in a high pressure situation is important here, but poker is still poker. It’s possible someone cracks under the pressure and starts giving away their chips, but I expect these guys will play their best game all the way through.”

“If I were to play 22 times I think I’d win it 3 times”

Final assessments

“I’m thinking I want to put the bets down on myself,” Newhouse said upon looking over the odds. “I just feel like it’s a good bet. I think if I were to play this tournament 24 years in a row using this situation, I’d win more than once. If I were to play 22 times…I know I’m a dog with my stack, but I think I’d win it 3 times. Personally, I’d bet big on 22-1.”

“I like to think I have a skill advantage over the other players” said Benefield. “I think seating arrangement is one of the most important aspects here. I am very happy with my current seat at the table.”

The market apparently agrees, taking his opening odds of 26.61 and shortening them to 15.50*.

Bet on the World Series of Poker main event final table here.

*Odds subject to change

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