Are bookmakers undervaluing Stoke City?

Are bookmakers undervaluing Stoke City?

By Michael Gales Sep 3, 2013

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Stoke City may be famous for their home defensive performances, but as one of the Premier League’s least fashionable side are they generally undervalued by bettors? Ahead of their game with Man City on September 14th, we use historical data to see how undercooked they are on the Asian handicap market.

Stoke City: A handicapper’s dream

A cloud of uncertainty surrounded the Britannia Stadium in the summer after the departure of long serving manager Tony Pullis and the appointment of the much-maligned Mark Hughes.

With the remit of changing the club’s long-ball culture and progressing the team into top ten regulars, many had Hughes and Stoke for the chop and drop respectively.

Stoke’s record against the handicap this season

Home team

Handicap

Away team

Handicap

Score

Handicap difference

Liverpool

-1.25

Stoke

1.25

1-0

0.25

Stoke

-0.5

Crystal Palace

0.5

2-1

0.5

West Ham

-0.5

Stoke

0.5

0-1

1.5

Three games into the 2013/14 Premier League season, however, and Stoke are fifth in the league and top of Pinnacle Sports’ handicap table, having covered the handicap in all three of their games this season. In fact, Stoke’s form runs into last season, having covered seven of their last ten Premier League games.

A look at the adjacent table shows how Stoke have covered the spread so far this season in their three Premier League matches.

Manchester City: Not so great on the handicap

City have spent nearly 100 million on new players during the summer and acquired a new manager in Manuel Pellegrini. But despite two wins and an away defeat, City have made a terrible start to the season for bettors backing them on the Asian handicap market. In fact, they have been able to cover the spread this season just once, and have managed to do so just twice in their last ten Premier League games.

Man City’s record against the handicap this season

Home team

Handicap

Away team

Handicap

Score

Handicap difference

Man City

-1.5

Newcastle

1.5

4-0

2.5

Cardiff City

2

Man City

-2

3-2

-3

Man City

-2

Hull City

2

2-0

0

Therefore the question is, are The Citizens under performing, or has their reputation caused a massive over-estimation of their ability in the handicap markets? The case for the overestimation of City is clear when you consider their massive spending (530.8m), especially compared with Stoke’s (89.8m) over the last five seasons.

What the handicap history tells us?

Despite City’s poor form, they have historically covered the spread against Stoke City in 50% of their last 10 Premier League meetings. None of these have come at the Britannia Stadium, however.

In the five previous encounters at the Britannia stadium there have been four 1-1 draws and a 1-0 win for the home team. With the current handicap for Stoke set at 1, does this suggest Stoke are again undervalued at home? Especially considering that Stoke have covered the handicap on average by 0.65 goals per game over the previous five home games against City.

Against the Spread Record at the Britannia

Date

Covering Team

Handicap

15/09/2013

Stoke

-0.75

24/03/2012

Stoke

-0.75

27/11/2010

Stoke

-0.25

16/02/2010

Stoke

-0.25

31/01/2009

Stoke

-0.25

City, on the other hand, have been offered as -0.75 favourites over the last two seasons. So with a -1 handicap for the game this season, are they overrated at the Britannia again?

Click here to see the latest Premier League odds

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