How will the new format changes and Winter Olympics impact the season?

How will the new format changes and Winter Olympics impact the season?

By Michael Gales Sep 27, 2013

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With the 2013/14 NHL season starting on Tuesday we look at both the new divisional format and the Sochi Olympics to see what impact they will have on the team’s prospects of Stanley Cup Glory.

NHL Divisional Changes, what do they mean and who will it impact?

Before betting on the 2013/14 NHL season there are a number of format changes you will need to understand.

In the NHL’s first realignment since 1998, the season is going from six divisions to four as the Detroit Red Wings and Columbus Blue Jackets move east and the Winnipeg Jets move west. The table below shows the three teams records against their new conferences over five seasons.

Teams’ Record vs. New Conferences (W L D)

Season

Detroit

Columbus

Winnipeg

2011-12

10-7-1

6-9-3

8-9-1

2010-11

12-4-2

11-4-3

6-10-2*

2009-10

9-6-3

8-7-3

8-7-3*

2008-09

12-5-1

6-9-3

8-9-1*

2007-08

7-2-1

6-3-1

5-5-0*

Total

50-24-8

44-26-12

35-39-8

*as the Atlanta Thrashers

The four divisions are named Atlantic, Metropolitan, Central and Pacific. The Atlantic and Metropolitan divisions make up the Eastern Conference and each division has eight teams, while the Central and Pacific divisions make up the Western Conference and have seven teams in each division – which makes it statistically easier to qualify in the West.

The new format ensures that the each team will play each other at least once home and away during the season. The Stanley Cup Playoffs will still consist of 16 teams, eight from each conference, but will be division-based, while a wild-card system has been added.

The top three teams in each division will make up the first 12 teams in the playoffs. The remaining four spots will be filled by the next two highest-placed finishers in each conference -regardless of division – based on regular-season points. Which means it will now be possible for one division to send five teams to the postseason while the other sends just three.

it is statistically easier to qualify in the West

Despite having less travel thanks to the changes in format, the Detroit Red Wings (4.820* to win Atlantic Division) – who have made the playoffs in 22 consecutive seasons – may struggle initially to adapt.

The East conference has generally been viewed as a physical conference and the West has been considered a skating conference. The Red Wings are not a stereotypical Western team and it may take time to adjust.

It leaves bettors deciding whether the bonus of less travel and more time at home outweighs the need to adapt their style? While the move looks like an obvious advantage, could actually threaten the Red Wing’s immediate record of 22 straight playoff appearances as they adapt their style to suit the Western Conference.

What impact will an Olympic year have on the NHL?

With the Olympics approaching in early 2014 bettors should question whether or not Sochi 14 will have a negative impact on participating NHL players – because of the break.

Bettors should ask themselves how much an Olympics will affect a player’s club? Will fatigue affect a player’s ability both mentally and physically and will it lead to more injuries at a key time in the season?

Injuries are part and parcel of Ice Hockey and a player runs the risk of picking up a knock every time he enters the ice. With the possibility of playing seven extra games, the likelihood a player will get injured increases, which could have the potential to damage a team’s chances of competing for the Stanley Cup.

By potentially playing a maximum of seven games, mental fatigue is perhaps more appropriate – as the player has the expectation of a nation rather than a club on his shoulders -, which will affect a players motivation. For instance after representing your country in the Olympics, will a player have the same motivation playing for their franchise? With that said player’s will more than likely be returning when their team is gearing up for a run at the Stanley Cup.

Another aspect to the debate surrounds the players who are not picked to represent their nations. How will the players react going from the intensity of the NHL to training and friendly games for two weeks? Will they then be able to regain the intensity they had prior to the Olympics or will the rest work as a benefit by allowing their bodies time to recover from the grueling season?

So what do the stats suggest?

Daniel Wagner looked at goaltender stats based on the 2009-10 season to see if there was an impact on the save percentages of the goaltenders who participated in the 2010 Olympics.

He found that only four of the 15 goaltenders that went to the 2010 Olympics had higher save percentages post-Olympics than they did pre-Olympics, while the average save percentage has dropped to a negative. Four goaltenders saw there save percentage fall by 20 or more compared to more modest increases from those who improved.

Does this data prove that playing in the Olympics tends to make goaltenders worse upon their return to the NHL? Not exactly as the data is from just one season therefore the sample size may skew the results. Bettors are advised to gather research for the Olympic games since 1998 and for other positions to see if this is a trend that stands the test of time and is not just relative too goaltenders.

Click here to see the best NHL Season futures.

*Odds subject to change

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Master vs. Apprentice: Mourinho takes on AVB

Master vs. Apprentice: Mourinho takes on AVB

By Michael Gales Sep 25, 2013

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Tottenham host Chelsea on Saturday, which sees the Master (Jose Mourinho) go against the Apprentice (AVB) for the first time. However, our EPL handicap table shows it’s actually AVB who has the edge over his old mentor in exceeding handicap expectations this season.

Spurs surpassing expectations this season…so far

Despite the sale of star player Gareth Bale to Real Madrid for a world record 86 million transfer fee in the summer, Spurs have started the season in solid form – four wins and one defeat.

AVB restructured his squad in the summer by replacing seven first team players with a better quality of player – who have appeared to settle well in their North London surroundings.

Tottenham are currently joint-top of the league having scored five and conceded just one – joint best defence in Europe – in their five games this season.

In their five previous games this season Spurs have covered the handicap four times and have only failed once, away against their North London rivals Arsenal in a 1-0 defeat.

Spurs sit joint top of the Pinnacle Sports Handicap table with an 80% record alongside Stoke City and Arsenal. This highlights that Tottenham have surpassed the bookmakers expectations this season.

The ‘Special One’ a victim of past success

The return of Jose Mourinho was hailed as the ‘Special One’ comes home, but so far ‘Jose 2.0′ has not lived up to expectations.

Five games into his return, Chelsea have won their three home games but been less than impressive in two tough games on the road – they go into this game with one defeat (Everton) and one draw (Manchester United).

Tasked with the implementation of a more possession based philosophy, Mourinho has stated his impact will initially be less dramatic that in was in his debut season in 2004/05 when he won the league, as he strives to find his best 11.

Bookmakers could be forgiven for putting this down to another attempt at ‘mind games’, however five games in Chelsea have according to our EPL Handicap table, only covered the spread in two games – at home to Hull and Fulham.

What this shows is that bookmakers have overvalued Chelsea’s strength, especially given they have finished third and sixth in the two previous seasons.

The handicap inflation maybe down to believing the ‘Mourinho’ factor would have an instant impact – like it did in his first spell at Chelsea, Inter and Real Madrid.

Smart bettors will have been fading the Blues, and alert to backing Chelsea to cover the spread when ‘things’ finally click.

Tottenham vs. Chelsea: Comparison at White Hart Lane

Tottenham vs Chelsea: Against the spread at White Hart Lane

Date

Covering Team

Handicap

Result

19/03/2008

Tottenham

0.5

4-4

21/03/2009

Tottenham

0.5

1-0

17/04/2010

Tottenham

0.5

2-1

12/12/2010

Tottenham

0.25

1-1

21/12/2011

Push

0

1-1

20/10/2012

Chelsea

0.25

2-4

Tottenham versus Chelsea has always been a feisty encounter with no love lost between the two London rivals.

The Lilywhites have covered the spread 66% of the time against Chelsea at White hart Lane over the past six seasons, but have failed to cover in the last two seasons – This shows that bookmakers have historically overvalued Chelsea at White Hart Lane, but not most recently.

Interestingly for only the second time in seven seasons there is a level handicap of 0 with Spurs at 1.926* & Chelsea at 2.010*, highlighting that bookmakers are unsure as to which way this game will go. Is this evidence that bookmakers have realised they have been overrating Chelsea, or does it reflect the improvement Spurs have made?

Master vs. the Apprentice

AVB was Mourinho’s assistant at Porto, Chelsea and Inter Milan and the pair have the Porto and Chelsea jobs in common, along with both learning their trade under Bobby Robson. However, their relationship cooled when the Spurs manager decided to forge his own managerial career.

Despite the fact neither adversaries talk to each other, there is still a mutual respect between the two managers.  Mourinho and AVB have never pitted their wits against one another, so the first outing between the Master and the Apprentice will be intriguing, but who will prevail?

Click here for the latest Premier League odds.

*Odds subject to change

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Why we sometimes overvalue the favourite in eSports

Why we sometimes overvalue the favourite in eSports

By Montse Ayensa Sep 24, 2013

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Whenever people look at potential eSports bets, or simply evaluate a match and predict a winner, more often than not there is a tendency to overvalue the favourite. This is a natural human reaction because of the difficulty we have in recognising randomness, over valuing players’ reputations and misunderstanding basic probability.

Korea vs. the world – Reputation or randomness

In international tournaments, particularly when foreign players play against strong Koreans, people tend to forget that upsets can occur due to the randomness that is inherent to these games, as well as external factors that have nothing to do with a difference in skill – jetlag, having a bad day, illness and social influences could all have an impact.

Once the game starts, a bit of luck early on (think of build-order advantage or a spot-on scan) can snowball heavily and end in a win for the underdog.

Differentiating heavyweights

In Korean vs. Korean matches, although the overall skill level can be higher, the reality is that the talent gap amongst them is often smaller than eSports bettors realise.

For example, many players’ carry a reputation that is impossible to disregard when trying to make a fair judgement of a match – think of Flash, MVP, etc. This can easily bias bettors in their favour, although most of them are actually tied to similar practice regimes, and have access to equally talented partners and coaches to help them prepare for that match, while a perfectly executed cheese might be all it takes for a player to claim victory.

Many players’ carry a reputation that is impossible to disregard when trying to make a fair judgement of a match.

Overweighting reputation – halo effect

Because of the history and nostalgia that comes with certain players, it is also a common mistake to judge them too heavily by their past performance. In general, it takes longer than it should for people to recognise bad streaks or a considerable downswing in a player’s performance. Through this adjustment period, many inaccurate predictions regarding the player’s ability tend to be made.

Sure some players have had remarkable success in the past, but at some point new names emerge to take the throne. Starcraft 2 for example, is well known for being a “history of eras”. This bias is known as the ‘Halo Effect’, read more about it here.

Fooled by randomness

So what about evenly matched players? Let’s make an experiment with Starcraft 2. Imagine a tournament with 16 players, all of which are equally skilled, for the sake of the experiment we can clone Flash 15 times and have him play only the same match-up, TvT; each game is independent with skill level the same. We start out with a Code S style group stage. Obviously, someone is going to win, but we shouldn’t infer superior skill because of success, as the results are essentially determined by the random factors mentioned earlier.

Nevertheless, what we would likely see is high praise from by the casters and the community for the people who advance, especially the ones going 2-0: “such a smart choice of build order”, “he punished the greedy play of his opponent with a well executed all-in”, “he read his opponent like a book” and so on.

On the other hand, if you were to read what people have to say about those who dropped out of the tournament, you would likely find classics such as “he should have seen that coming”, “he played way too greedy”, or “he got outsmarted so badly” and similar comments.

Next we have an eight player single elimination bracket. Quarter-final and semi-final will be best-of-five, and finals best-of-seven.

Assuming every match is 50/50, it’s quite likely that there is one 3-0, one 3-1 and two 3-2’s. Even while quick maths show you that the chance of a match between two equal players ending 3-0 for either player is actually 25% [(0.53)+ (0.53)], you can imagine all the hype that the casters and viewers will create around the person who wins 3-0. Surely he must be the favourite to win the tournament, right?

We’re now at the semi-final. The player who won 3-0 in the QF plays against one of the 3-2s. Suddenly, the hyped player loses 0-3. He must’ve choked, right? The other semi-final is won by a score of 3-2.

You can probably guess who is seen as a big favourite in the final. People will probably bet until the line is at 1.50. All the while, it’s really still all 50:50 (odds of 2.00) but perceptions have been skewed by two 25% situations occurring.

And then someone wins. A caster might claim, “he is clearly the best player in the world right now”. And why? There are two processes going on here – survivorship bias describes how we mistake a random process for something which has correlation, on top of which we are generating a narrative to explain the correlation.

When we watch games, our brain is often overwhelmed by what we see and hear. It’s almost impossible to see the underlying probabilities. Instead, our minds try very hard to create stories around what we just saw. This makes things easier to comprehend, but more detached from an objective truth of probability.

Humans simply aren’t built to adequately deal with randomness. We like stories, we want things to be clear, because that’s easier to grasp… and much more entertaining. No one would watch an eSports tournament where people flip coins to decide who wins a match, and though our tournament example is hypothetical the principle does apply in reality, just not quite so literally.

So remember when you think you have witnessed an upset that perhaps it was nothing more than a random factor at play. As an eSports enthusiast who is perhaps new to betting, this idea is just as important to understand as an in-depth knowledge of the games, players and strategies.

*Odds subject to change

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Discussing WSOP short-stack chances… with the players

Discussing WSOP short-stack chances… with the players

By Gary Wise Sep 23, 2013

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A number of factors need to be considered when assessing the chances of the short-stacks at the WSOP main event final table. We went to the source – Mark Newhouse and David Benefield – to help us, help you, assess them.

With 190,675,000 chips in play amongst the nine remaining players at the WSOP, Benefield has 6,375,000 (3.34%) chips, while Newhouse has 7,350,000 (3.85%), easily the two smallest stacks – aka short stacks

The value of a chip

Chip Total & Current Odds

Player

Stack

Odds

JC Tran

38,000,000

3.93*

Amir Lehavot

29,700,000

6.06*

Marc Etienne

26,250,000

6.07*

Jay Farber

25,975,000

6.95*

Ryan Riess

25,875,000

6.98*

Sylvain Loosli

19,600,000

9.17*

Michiel Brummelhuis

11,275,000

15.97*

Mark Newhouse

7,350,000

23.97*

David Benefield

6,375,000

15.50*

How do we extrapolate the odds of each player winning? The simplest method is to determine what percentage of the chips in play their stack holds. By this notion, if there are 1,000,000 chips in play and a player has 300,000 chips, that player would have a 30% chance of winning the tournament. However, the calculation isn’t as simple as that.

“You have to account for something called the Independent Chip Model (ICM),” Newhouse explained. “Basically, the chips change value. My 7.5 million is probably worth more than 7.5 million in JC’s stack. Chips I can gain are worth more than chips I can lose…if I lose my chips, I’m out. If I double up and lose half my stack, I’m not out. The shorter your stack, the greater the value of each chip.”

In other words, if Newhouse had twice the chips, he wouldn’t have twice the equity. Survival counts for something.

The effect of the prize jumps

Prize Structure

Position

Winnings

1st place

$8,359,531

2nd place

$5,173,170

3rd place

$3,727,023

4th place

$2,791,983

5th place

$2,106,526

6th place

$1,600,792

7th place

$1,225,224

8th place

$944,593

9th place

$733,324

“I think players will be tentative to play big pots early on. Most of the players will want to play a little more conservatively until Mark or I bust, locking in a higher payout.” Benefield theorised

If Benefield is right, the short stacks will have more time than normal to wait for an optimal moment to double up or otherwise increase their chip count.

Lights, camera, action

With players competing for previously unseen sums of money and the title of world champion under the watchful gaze of an international audience, they face a new kind of pressure. Both Newhouse and Benefield are veterans of televised poker, a fact that may play as an advantage.

“A lot of it is about experience, having been there before,” Newhouse enthused. “People like me, JC and David will make better reads, have the better timing, make better decisions than people who don’t have that experience. A less-experienced player might make a wrong read where JC would not, and the ramifications are huge.”

Benefield doesn’t see the advantage as clearly. “I think being comfortable in a very public setting, on camera, and in a high pressure situation is important here, but poker is still poker. It’s possible someone cracks under the pressure and starts giving away their chips, but I expect these guys will play their best game all the way through.”

“If I were to play 22 times I think I’d win it 3 times”

Final assessments

“I’m thinking I want to put the bets down on myself,” Newhouse said upon looking over the odds. “I just feel like it’s a good bet. I think if I were to play this tournament 24 years in a row using this situation, I’d win more than once. If I were to play 22 times…I know I’m a dog with my stack, but I think I’d win it 3 times. Personally, I’d bet big on 22-1.”

“I like to think I have a skill advantage over the other players” said Benefield. “I think seating arrangement is one of the most important aspects here. I am very happy with my current seat at the table.”

The market apparently agrees, taking his opening odds of 26.61 and shortening them to 15.50*.

Bet on the World Series of Poker main event final table here.

*Odds subject to change

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The Singapore Grand Prix: When the lights go down

The Singapore Grand Prix: When the lights go down

By Michael Gales Sep 20, 2013

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Following two fast circuits in the heartland of Europe – Spa and Monza – Formula One is now headed for the Singapore Grand Prix -  the ultra-modern Singapore street circuit, which is the only race on the calendar run at night under street lamps.

The effect of the lightening on the drivers is not that dramatic as the track is lighter than at midday on a sunny day and four times brighter than a football stadium.

In addition to the nighttime race there are a number of other factors that make the Marina Bay circuit unique.

In terms of duration, this is usually the longest race of the year as it often comes close to the two-hour time limit, which means that the cars carry the heaviest fuel load of the season.

It’s also one of the most humid (between 75% and 90%) races of the year, and statistically there’s a high chance of rain and a safety car. All these elements can affect tyre wear and degradation as well as a drivers race strategy.

Track easier on the tyres

The drivers will have the medium and supersoft tyre available for the race and qualifying. The Marina Bay circuit is bumpy – a typical feature of street circuits –which compromises grip and traction, and given the traction is fundamental around this track due to 23 corners, drivers face the battle of driving with a lack of grip.

Despite the cars carrying the heaviest fuel loads of the year, which can have a direct effect on tyre wear, the track is relatively easy going on tyres. For the drivers though it’s a different story: the high temperatures, humidity, and length of the race demand a lot physically.

The two previous races at Spa and Monza are historically hard on tyres, however the Singapore GP throws up new challenges, which will allow teams to formulate a number of different strategies.

Strategy

Race strategy at Singapore has to be flexible in order to take into account the high safety car probability (there were two safety car periods last year) and the possibility of rain.

12 months ago the three podium finishers all used a two-stop strategy, while the entire top ten on the grid started on the supersoft compound.

Correlation

Previously, we’ve proved that there is a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here).

By using the same model, we examined all five Singapore Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at the Marina Bay circuit as a race performance indicator.

The data shows a 0.58 correlation between qualifying and race position at Monza.  In addition to the strong relationship the data highlights 60% of races correlate, showcasing that qualifying at the Singapore GP provides a strong predictor of a drivers’ race performance.

Three of the five polesitters have secured the win. The data also highlights if you have a smooth race there is a good chance of winning from pole as the two drivers that failed to do so had incidents which resulted in the 15th and 24th finishes respectively.

Click here for the latest Singapore Grand Prix odds.

*Odds subject to change

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Are bookmakers overvaluing City?

Are bookmakers overvaluing City?

By Michael Gales Sep 18, 2013

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Despite being the Premier League favourites, Manchester City seem to be overvalued by bookmakers this season on the Asian handicap market. Ahead of the Manchester derby we look at the damning stats that confirm that City haven’t covered the handicap this season.

Man City: underachieving or overvalued?

Despite spending 100m on new players during the summer, Manchester City (2.180*) are the only team so far this season not to have covered the spread on Pinnacle Sports’ Premier League handicap table.

Are Man City under-performing, or has their big money spending caused a huge over-estimation of their ability?

City have won their two home games so far this campaign, but lost and drew their two away games. Bettors backing City in the handicap market would be out of pocket as the citizens have failed to cover and pushed just twice.

The question bettors need to ask themselves is, are Man City under-performing, or has their reputation and big money spending caused a huge over-estimation of their ability in the handicap markets?

With a new manager at the helm and five new additions to the squad, is it just a question of time before Man City return to the level expected by the bookmakers, or will City be over-estimated for a long time to come?

Man United: a mixed bag for Moyes & co

In comparison, Manchester United (3.700*) started the season with a rousing 4-0 away win at the Liberty Stadium against Swansea, but have since pushed twice in their 0-0 draw and 0-1 defeat against Chelsea and Liverpool respectively, while they failed to cover the handicap last time out in a 2-0 win against Crystal Palace at home.

In contrast to their City rivals, United endured a difficult transfer window and secured their only major signing of the summer in the final minutes as Belgian midfielder Marouane Fellaini signed joined-up with manager David Moyes once again.

The lack of additions may help United in the short term, as there isn’t an influx of new players that need to integrate into the squad – fundamentally the squad is the same which won the Premier League by 11 points last season.

Manchester Derby: head-to-head comparison

A glance at the handicap form over the past 10 Premier League Manchester derbies at the Etihad shows that City have covered the spread 50%, while United have 40% and there has been one push.

Manchester Derby against the handicap at the Etihad

Date

Covering Team

Handicap

30/11/2008

Manchester United

-0.5

17/04/2010

Manchester United

-0.25

10/11/2010

Push

0

30/04/2012

Manchester City

0.5

09/12/2012

Manchester United

0.25

However, a closer look shows that City have covered the spread at home in the Manchester derby just once since their takeover at the start of the 2008-09 season. Since then, City have lost three, drew one and lost one.

This is a good example of how the heavy investment in the squad has inflated City’s handicap above the skill of the squad, resulting in their failure to cover the handicap.

City are the 0.5 favourites. Are the bookmakers still overestimating City, or is this approach going to backfire as City struggle to blend in their new players and adapt to the style of play expected from new manager Manuel Pellegrini so early in the season?

Click here for the latest Manchester derby odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

How to win the lottery with Expected Value

How to win the lottery with Expected Value

By Mirio Mella Sep 16, 2013

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Expected Value is a great a way to measure whether a bet is potentially profitable. In fact, one mathematician even used EV to guarantee multiple lottery jackpot wins. Despite its usefulness, however, many bettors are unfamiliar with technique. Learn about it here.

Expected Value – or EV – is a method used to measure the relative values in a two-sided decision, like ‘will a coin land on heads or tails?’ It does this by using a simple decision matrix that weighs up the upside and downside of the two options.

It’s best used by bettors to determine the amount you can expect to win or lose on a given bet – with a positive EV indicating a profitable proposition. The UK National Lottery, for example, has a negative EV of -0.50p – you theoretically lose 50p for every 1 invested – which means that it is a bad bet for making money.

How to Calculate Expected Value

The formula for calculating Expected Value is relatively easy. Multiply your probability of winning by the amount you could win per bet, and subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount you stand to lose per bet:

(Probability of Winning x Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing x Amount Lost per Bet)

The easiest betting example is a fair coin toss, in which there are two choices. Imagine you wager 10 on the two outcomes, which both pay out at the same rate (probability of 0.5 or 2.0 in Decimal odds). This produces a decision matrix that has an EV of 0 for either outcome. This is because the probability of the two outcomes is the same, so if you tossed a coin forever you would theoretically just end up all square.

If, however, we change the return on Heads to pay 11 – so a probability if 0.48 or odds of 2.10 – this changes the matrix, and produces a positive EV of 50p for backing Heads. This means that if you were to make the same bet on Heads over and over again, you can expect to profit an average of 50p for each bet of 10, because the odds received are better than the implied odds of the event.

Expected Value of Coin Toss

Choice:

Calculation (Heads – Tails):

EV

Heads

(10 x 0.5) – (10 x 0.5)

0

Tails

(10 x 0.5) – (10 x 0.5)

0

EV of Coin Toss (11 return on Heads)

Choice:

Calculation (Heads – Tails):

EV

Heads

(11 x 0.5) – (10 x 0.5)

0.50

Tails

(10 x 0.5) – (10 x 0.5)

0

You should bite the hand off anyone offering you that opportunity, because in the long run you will not lose. And is important to stress it is in the long run, because EV is theoretical.

Winning the lottery with EV

EV originated way back in the 17th Century after a discussion between a trio of eminent mathematicians about payouts for dice games. One of them, Blaise Pascal – later to become famous for his work on triangles – was the first to use the idea of Expected Value, as he struggled with much a weightier quandary – the existence of God.

Many years later, a Romanian mathematician, Stefan Mandel, understood only too well how the EV for lotteries worked, and used his knowledge to take advantage of circumstances when lotteries can actually be a good bet.

The UK National Lottery has a negative EV of 50p for every 1 staked

To win the National Lottery, you need to match six numbers drawn from 1 to 49, of which there are 14 million possible combinations, meaning the chance of winning is 14million to one. Therefore in order for this to be a profitable bet, the return – the jackpot – would have to be greater than the odds, but lotteries tend to function as a risk-free method for governments to generate treasury funds, so the odds normally outweigh the return.

A list of risks (in terms of EV) would have large lotteries at the bottom. The UK National Lottery as an example has a negative EV of 50p for every 1 staked (so -0.5). This is why it is derided as an indirect form of taxation. Of course, lottery players, even when presented with the EV calculation – or an equivalent argument – are happy to put their money down seeing the 50p as the cost of buying the excitement of being in with the chance (no matter how small) of winning a life changing amount of money.There is an exception to the standard EV for lotteries, however. When a winning ticket isn’t sold for a given draw, the jackpot rolls over and is combined with the jackpot from the next draw. When a jackpot rolls over enough times, it can rise to a point where the EV becomes positive.

Mandel understood this and set about finding a way to exploit it. The theory was simple. Wait for rollover, and then cover all the possible permutations. The practical implications enormous – he needed to buy tickets to cover all the permutations. Despite the extent of the challenge he succeeded in that monumental task (on a number of occasions). His outlay was less than the jackpot, which having bought tickets for every possible combination of numbers, he scooped.

The same principle is at work when card counters try to get the better of casinos at the blackjack table, exploiting fleeting situations when the make up of the deck gives the right plays a positive EV.

Buying up 14 million lottery tickets, or learning to count cards are both beyond the means of the average bettor, but there are two situations when positive EV is a realistic objective. Arbitrage & Niche Market Handicapping.

Arbitrage & Positive EV

Arbitrage is the explicit exploitation of odds from separate bookmakers which when brought together to form an artificial market provide a positive EV.

Abritrage is an increasingly popular form of betting, having been the successful and legitimate basis of financial trading for many decades. Arbitrage is not a flakey system – the mathematical logic is irrefutable. The issue lies with the reluctance of many bookmakers to accommodate arbitrage players, which is where Pinnacle Sports stands out, operating an arbitrage welcome policy.

Implied EV

Whereas arbitrage trading exploits explicit situations of positive EV – the opportunities are concrete if fleeting – there are also situations where the positive value can be implied, emanating from a variation in opinion. Serious bettors build their own handicapping systems, and therefore generate their own opinion of a given market. When the odds that their system generates differ widely with what a bookmaker is offering, they perceive positive EV – based on their assessment.

This is likely in niche markets, when the playing field between bookmakers and independent bettors is more even. This can produce a decision matrix like Table B in which you are receiving odds that are better than those implied by the bet, and therefore in the long run the wager would give you a profit.

A brilliant mathematician wrestling with the biggest question of all may have created EV, but it is actually better suited for more humble means. It is an excellent tool for bettors to establish how profitable a bet might be. If you haven’t been using it, there is no need to resort to a decision matrix to reason why.

*Odds subject to change

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What the handicaps tell us about the UCL

What the handicaps tell us about the UCL

By Jack Ratcliffe Sep 16, 2013

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The Champions League group stages show a big gulf in quality between the “champions” of Europe and the smaller sides. But does this widely known fact cause us to under- or over-rate both the favourites and the minnows?

Outsiders overrated at home 

The Champions League is considered the world’s elite club competition, however due to the tournaments qualification process, a number of minnows can find themselves up against the odds in the group stage.

In the last three years, only one of these small sides has beaten expectations and made it to the knockout stages – APOEL Nicosia in 2011/12. Their journey continued into the quarterfinals (where they were knocked out by Real Madrid). More surprising for bettors than APOEL’s progress, however, were their results against the spread. The Cypriot side failed to cover the handicap in just three of their ten games, covering the handicap six times and pushing once.

Such a high covering rate (60%) is unusual for the smaller sides, which (using the four smaller sides from the last three Champions League competitions) have covered an average of 43.4% of the time. Combine that number with the push rate (10.5%) and it seems there’s nothing out of the ordinary regarding minnows handicap performances in the UCL.

On the road – the minnows cover 52.6% of their matches

Separate the data into home and away form, however, and a big division appears. The 12 minnows listed above (Nordsjaelland, Montpellier, CFR Cluj x 2, BATE Borisov x2, Otelul Galati, Trabzonspor, Apoel Nicosia, Partizan, Zilina and Rubin Kazan) have covered the spread at home just 13 times in 38 outings; a rate of 34.2%.

On the road, it’s a different story – the minnows cover 52.6% of their matches, or 20 from 38. Because the perception is that these teams will be demolished away from home, the handicap tends to dramatically undervalue them. Handicap bettors should take note: these sides are performing better than expected on the road, and much, much worse than the handicap would indicate at home, covering the spread just 1/3 of the time.

This year’s Champions League boasts a slightly stronger lineup than usual, but if there were four teams that could be considered minnows, it’s Plzen, Steaua, Austria Wien and F.C. Copenhagen. Of these, Copenhagen are currently 1.893* home favourites at +1 and +1.5 for their first Champions League tie this year. Will the results go with the odds, or with the stats above?

Munich: Unpredictably good

At the other end of the spectrum, and with two Champions League finals and one trophy under their belt, it’s understandable that Bayern Munich top the Champions League outrights market and are widely considered the best team in Europe.

Despite this hyperbole, however, the German side has been traditionally underrated at home over the last three seasons.

According to historical handicap data for the last three Champions League seasons, Munchen have covered the spread in 12 of their last 18 home outings. This means the Germans have beaten their predicted outcome 66.7% of the time – very impressive for a side who are already considered the best in the world.

The statistics aren’t quite as astounding away from home, but are still favourable towards the south German side as they cover 50% of the time.

Barcelona’s bad season

Before the start of last season’s Champions League competition, most people expected Barcelona to showcase the form that seen them reach the semifinals in 2011/12.

Barcelona’s Performance Against the Spread

Year

Home Cover

Away Cover

2013

16.7%

33.3%

2012

-50%

-66.7%

2011

-71%

-50%

And in results, they did – the Spaniards managed to make it to the penultimate round of Europe’s premier club competition. However, a look at their results against the handicap show there was nowhere near the dominance expected of them (and seen in previous seasons).

The Catalan’s covered the spread at home just once in last year’s competition, compared with three times the season before, and five the season before that. Looking at the table to the left, you can see how often Barca covered the handicap (home and away) for the last three Champions Leagues.

Click here for the latest Champions League odds.

*Odds subject to change

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Understanding the Europa League

Understanding the Europa League

By Michael Gales Sep 13, 2013

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The Europa League is a strange competition, with foreign teams and contrasting attitudes meeting all across Europe. Understanding more about the competition, such as the coefficients and who takes the competition seriously, is key for betting in the competition.

Understand who is taking the tournament seriously

The Europa League can be viewed as the Champions League’s dirty cousin – more of a hindrance than an opportunity for bigger European teams, who are more focused on domestic success.

Understanding which teams regard the Europa League as a nuisance and which teams want to win is key to successful Europa League betting. A recent change in the rules has made the competition slightly more valuable, as the competition’s winner will be rewarded with a place in next year’s Champions League.

Keep on top of current coefficients

Bettors should understand UEFA’s European coefficient tables – Club & Country – instead of relying on preconceptions and traditional ideas of European soccer hierarchies as a betting guide.

For instance bettors can be guilty of over-estimating the value of teams they are familiar with, or teams that are fashionable, rather than form or past European strength. Read more on this ‘halo effect’ here. 

The coefficient system is not without its detractors, however. Because the number is averaged over five years, one poor season can skew data dramatically downwards. Likewise, if a team starts to lose form over three years, but won a title five years ago, the coefficient might be artificially high. Therefore it’s important to not just examine the overall coefficient, but the five-year numbers it is generated from.

Thorough research pays off

When betting on individual Europa League matches, research is a bettor’s best friend. By understanding as much about both teams will give the bettor the best chance of making a profit.

In addition to teams that rank highly in their domestic league, the Europa League is riddled with teams who have qualified as domestic cup final winners or losers. Traditionally, league qualifiers show greater reliability than their cup-qualifying rivals, although they have proven they can raise their game for an occasion.

For example Wigan are currently playing in the English Championship after being relegated last season, however they qualified for the competition by beating Man City in the FA Cup final.

Study domestic form

Researching the domestic form of clubs across the continent is a great way to gain knowledge on who are on unbeaten runs, who are struggling, which teams are defensively solid and which teams struggle to score.

Understanding a clubs form before betting will give the punter the best chance to make informed judgments, and make sure they don’t miss out on opportunities to make a profit.

Beware the foreign fortress

Bettors frequently underestimate European teams in their own stadium, by assuming that because they are a weaker team than their opposition, they won’t be good at home.

For instance, Turkish giants Fenerbahce have lost just four games at home in their last 70 fixtures at the Sukru Saracoglu stadium – although despite qualifying, they won’t be competing in European football for two years.

Realising which teams have a fortress at home is key to ensuring you are on the right track to make a profit on your Europa League betting journey.

Champions League dropouts

When selecting your Europa League betting picks you should always consider the teams that have entered the knockout stages after being eliminated from the Champions League.

Last season saw European giants Chelsea, Benfica and Ajax take the step down from Europe’s bigger club competition, and Chelsea went on to become the first team to win the Europa League following a Champions League victory.

Click here to see the latest Europa League odds.

*Odds subject to change

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8 important Champions League trends

8 important Champions League trends

By Michael Gales Sep 12, 2013

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With experience, team nationality and past manager success key indicators to winning the Champions League, it’s in a bettor’s interest to read these eight key Champions League betting trends.

Champions League Experience key to success

70% of winners in the past 20 years – and all of the last eight – have been involved in the competition at the Group stages the previous year.

Unsurprisingly, all ten teams favoured by Pinnacle Sports on the Champions League outright markets were involved in last year’s group stages. In fact, eight qualified to the second round, with only Chelsea and Manchester City failing to advance to the knockout stages.

Tough task for favourites Bayern Munich

After last year’s near perfect season, and the addition of Pep Guardiola as manager, defending champions Bayern Munich are once more penned as 4.690* pre-tournament favourites.

Despite plenty of teams being favourites to retain the title in the past, no team has managed the feat in the last 24 years – AC Milan were the last side to do so back in the 1989-90 Champions League.

Can the Bavarians break the hoodoo and do what they did in 1974 and 1975 and defend the European Champions League crown?

The Country Phenomena

The Champions League winners have not come from the same nation in consecutive seasons in the last 23 years. And excluding Milan’s back-to-back titles in ’89 & ’88, no Champions League winner has come from the same nation consecutively since 1982.

Contrary to this, Bayern are favourites to lift the cup, while beaten 2013 finalists Dortmund can be backed at 15.000* as the ninth favourites.

Successful domestic season 12 months earlier

In the past two decades, 80% of Champions League winners finished inside the top two positions of their respective domestic leagues the previous season, while 60% have won their respective leagues.

2012 winners Chelsea 8.850* have finished sixth and third over the past two seasons, despite being outlined as fourth favourites to lift this year’s title. Back in 2009, Barcelona were the last team to win the Champions League after finishing outside the top two 12 months earlier.

New winners are a rarity

Teams who have never lifted the Champions League trophy have historically struggled to break the mold set by the big clubs since Barcelona’s inaugural win in 1992. In the 21 years preceding this year’s competition, only three new winners have lifted the famous trophy – Marseille (1993), Dortmund (1997) and Chelsea (2012).

The CL winners have not come from the same nation consecutively since 1982.

Country Breakdown

Only two teams have won the Champions League in the past 20 years outside of Spain, Italy, England and Germany. In fact, 15 of those have been English, Spanish or Italian.

The top nine favourites with Pinnacle Sports to lift the trophy this term are from the four major nations, with big spending French giants PSG the highest-rated outsider, offered at 13.500*.

Successful manager key

A manager’s form in the competition can be seen as a trend in recent times. Five of the last seven winning managers have already lifted the trophy previously.

Jose Mourinho, Carlo Ancelotti and Pep Guardiola have each lifted the Champions League trophy twice before, and it is not surprising that their respective clubs Chelsea, Real Madrid 5.680* and Bayern Munich are three of the top four favourites to win.

Early form a key indicator

75% of Champions League winning teams over the past 20 years have won their respective groups earlier in the tournament, including seven of the last eight winners.

Click here to see Pinnacle Sports’ latest Champions League outright odds

*Odds subject to change

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Are soccer expert’s predictions better than Pinnacle Sports’?

Are soccer expert’s predictions better than Pinnacle Sports’?

By Jack Ratcliffe Sep 12, 2013

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Money talks, but does it always say the right thing? We compared the predictions of the BBC’s soccer expert Mark Lawrenson with Pinnacle Sports handicaps to see if the ex-Liverpool man is a better oracle than the market.

We’ve discussed the dangers of following tipsters before, as well as championing our closing odds (a phenomena called the Pinnacle Lean) and the importance of following the wisdom of the crowd. Now we’ve put the two together and compared the predictions of a high profile “expert” with that of our open odds.

2013/14 week 1 EPL: An average week for Lawrenson

Predictions

Score

Handicap

Lawro

Liverpool v Stoke

1-0

1-0

1-0

Arsenal v Aston Villa

1-3

1-0

2-0

Norwich v Everton

2-2

1-0

2-1

Sunderland v Fulham

0-1

0-1

1-1

West Brom v Southampton

0-1

0-0

2-1

West Ham v Cardiff

2-0

1-0

2-0

Swansea v Man Utd

1-4

0-1

1-1

Crystal Palace v Tottenham

0-1

0-1

1-2

Chelsea v Hull City

2-0

2-0

2-0

Man City v Newcastle

4-0

2-0

2-0

Above is a table comparing Lawro’s predictions for the first week of the 2013/14 season with those deduced from our Premier League handicap markets. Lawrenson impressively predicts the correct outcome in five of the ten ties, giving him a 50% prediction rate for week one.

With three possible outcomes for each game, this means a random selection would provide an accuracy of 33.3%, so the BBC pundit has clearly outperformed pure randomness.

However, it’s still less accurate than Pinnacle Sports, whose handicaps predicted six correct outcomes (or 60%). And remember, it’s not just the accuracy of the Pinnacle Sports’ traders who are on trial here. It’s also bettors, because their volume shifts where the handicap sits at the start of the game.

Of course, such a small window (just one week) doesn’t comprehensively show that the markets were a better predictor of outcome than Lawrenson. For that, we’d need to check a whole season’s worth of data.

How do handicaps predict outcomes?

The handicap predictions were formed by choosing which match outcome the handicaps leaned closest to.

For example, Chelsea were favourites at -1.5 vs. Hull City, which meant they were expected to win either 2-0 or better, or win 1-0 or worse. Either way, it’s still a win for the Blues.

In the battle of a BBC tipster vs. the Pinnacle Sports’ traders the latter won by over 5%.

Games with handicaps of zero were set as 0-0 draws (even if their were favourites for one side to win the game), while mixed handicaps (at 0.25 or 0.75) were rounded upwards to a represent a full goal.

2012/13: Markets more accurate

Over the whole of the 2012/13 season, Lawrenson continued with an impressive prediction accuracy, correctly getting 200 of the 380 outcomes – a 52.6% accuracy rate. Unfortunately for Lawro, this means he was less accurate than the handicaps, which offered 210 correct outcomes – or 55.3%.

In the battle of a BBC tipster vs. the Pinnacle Sports’ traders (with some added wisdom of the crowd), the latter won by over 5%.

It’s an interesting result, especially considering BBC Radio 4’s statistician Ben Carter made the bold claim back in May that Lawrenson had “beaten the bookies” with his predictions. Carter’s calculation was based upon using the favourites from 12 markets, which overlooks a key fact: draws are massively underrepresented in these markets.

A draw will almost never be the favourite in the 12 markets, but 27% of games ended with honours even last season. That’s a huge number of games removed from the bookmaker’s side of the argument. By moving to handicaps instead of 1x2s, the draw is better addressed – and the results improved.

When Carter informed Lawrenson of his success, the ex-Liverpool star made perhaps his most accurate statement: “in my experience, [bookmakers] don’t get too many things wrong.”

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Odds & Numbers stacked up against Gustafsson at UFC 165

Odds & Numbers stacked up against Gustafsson at UFC 165

By Michael Gales Sep 10, 2013

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Jon Jones – a formidable foe to any opponent – goes into UFC 165 with an 8” reach advantage over rival Alexander Gustafsson. What can the Swede do to ruin Bones’ sixth title defense on September 21st?

Odds Shift towards Jones

UFC Light Heavyweight champion Jon ‘Bones’ Jones is the 1.150* heavy favourite to defend his title for a sixth time. Jones (18-1-0) is undefeated in open combat, with his only loss coming via disqualification against Matt Hamill. Despite dominating the fight, Jones was disqualified for a downward elbow strike.

Challenger Alexander ‘The Mauler’ Gustafsson has drifted to 6.550* after opening at 6.000 to become the first fighter to beat Jones in open combat.

Both fighters enter the bout in great form. Jones has won his last 9 fights, while ‘The Mauler’ has beaten six men since losing to Phil Davis via submission at UFC 112.

Jones has the physical advantage 

Both fighters are 26, employ orthodox stances and will make the 205lbs weight limit, but that is were the similarities end.

Gustafsson has a 1″ height advantage over Jones standing at 6’5″, however it is the champion’s superhuman reach that could prove decisive – as it has in most of his other fights. At 84.5″, Jones’ reach is an incredible 8″ longer than his opponent’s.

Another important factor is that Gustafsson has not fought since December 8th 2012 after withdrawing just days before fighting Gegard Mousasi because of a cut suffered in training. Will the Swede be undercooked for the biggest fight of his career?

Striking battle 

With a 60% (9 KO wins) knockout percentage, ‘The Mauler’ has considerable striking power. Since joining the UFC he has improved his technique, becoming a dangerous prospect rather than a wild brawler. Importantly, the Swede’s aggression has not wilted – much to the fans delight.

Gustafsson may be at a reach disadvantage, but he’ll still attempt to keep the fight off the mat. Jones’ forte is as a wrestler, however he’s still developed into a premiere striker.

With a reach that gives him a natural advantage over any opponent, and the intelligence to employ it properly, he continues to make more accomplished standup fighters look average.  His athletic approach ensures he delivers quick powerful blows, resulting in a 44% (9 KO wins) knockout percentage.

Stats wise both men land around 4 strikes per minute, while Jones has a 53% success rate compared to 36% for the challenger.

Wrestling, Grappling & Submissions 

Jones & Gustafsson Fight Statistics

Striking

Jones

Gustafsson

Strikes landed per/min

3.94

3.98

Striking accuracy

53%

36%

Strikes absorbed per/min

1.44

-2.29

Defense

67%

-56%

Grappling

Jones

Gustafsson

Takedown average/15min

2.78

2.56

Takedown accuracy

62%

50%

Takedown defence

100%

-84%

Submission average/15min

0.86

-1.28

As a wrestler, Jones is amongst the best in the business. He is still yet to be taken down in the Octagon and has an impressive 62% takedown success rate himself. He unsettles his opponents by alternating between striking and wrestling attacks, which keeps his opponents guessing – and off balance.

Gustafsson’s wrestling used to be considered a weakness, but since his defeat to Phil Davis, he sought council from the man who upstaged him, which has helped him greatly. However, he uses his wrestling in reverse – to keep the action standing – which is why he has a lowly 50% success rate.

Like wrestling, grappling is an area the challenger has really developed. In eight UFC wins he has two submissions, just one less than the number of knockouts he’s scored. Furthermore, since losing to Davis in 2010, Gustafsson has never really been in trouble on the mat – which includes his fight against Mauricio Rua.

With that said, Jones is a monster. Since becoming UFC champion, three of Jones’ five victories have come via submission. With his gangly limbs and a varied arsenal, he is becoming regarded as one of the most dangerous submission fighters in the division.  Jones has submitted six fighters in his 19 fights and attempts on average 0.86 submissions per 15 minutes.

Click here for the latest UFC 165 odds.

*Odds subject to change

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Are bookmakers undervaluing Stoke City?

Are bookmakers undervaluing Stoke City?

By Michael Gales Sep 3, 2013

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Stoke City may be famous for their home defensive performances, but as one of the Premier League’s least fashionable side are they generally undervalued by bettors? Ahead of their game with Man City on September 14th, we use historical data to see how undercooked they are on the Asian handicap market.

Stoke City: A handicapper’s dream

A cloud of uncertainty surrounded the Britannia Stadium in the summer after the departure of long serving manager Tony Pullis and the appointment of the much-maligned Mark Hughes.

With the remit of changing the club’s long-ball culture and progressing the team into top ten regulars, many had Hughes and Stoke for the chop and drop respectively.

Stoke’s record against the handicap this season

Home team

Handicap

Away team

Handicap

Score

Handicap difference

Liverpool

-1.25

Stoke

1.25

1-0

0.25

Stoke

-0.5

Crystal Palace

0.5

2-1

0.5

West Ham

-0.5

Stoke

0.5

0-1

1.5

Three games into the 2013/14 Premier League season, however, and Stoke are fifth in the league and top of Pinnacle Sports’ handicap table, having covered the handicap in all three of their games this season. In fact, Stoke’s form runs into last season, having covered seven of their last ten Premier League games.

A look at the adjacent table shows how Stoke have covered the spread so far this season in their three Premier League matches.

Manchester City: Not so great on the handicap

City have spent nearly 100 million on new players during the summer and acquired a new manager in Manuel Pellegrini. But despite two wins and an away defeat, City have made a terrible start to the season for bettors backing them on the Asian handicap market. In fact, they have been able to cover the spread this season just once, and have managed to do so just twice in their last ten Premier League games.

Man City’s record against the handicap this season

Home team

Handicap

Away team

Handicap

Score

Handicap difference

Man City

-1.5

Newcastle

1.5

4-0

2.5

Cardiff City

2

Man City

-2

3-2

-3

Man City

-2

Hull City

2

2-0

0

Therefore the question is, are The Citizens under performing, or has their reputation caused a massive over-estimation of their ability in the handicap markets? The case for the overestimation of City is clear when you consider their massive spending (530.8m), especially compared with Stoke’s (89.8m) over the last five seasons.

What the handicap history tells us?

Despite City’s poor form, they have historically covered the spread against Stoke City in 50% of their last 10 Premier League meetings. None of these have come at the Britannia Stadium, however.

In the five previous encounters at the Britannia stadium there have been four 1-1 draws and a 1-0 win for the home team. With the current handicap for Stoke set at 1, does this suggest Stoke are again undervalued at home? Especially considering that Stoke have covered the handicap on average by 0.65 goals per game over the previous five home games against City.

Against the Spread Record at the Britannia

Date

Covering Team

Handicap

15/09/2013

Stoke

-0.75

24/03/2012

Stoke

-0.75

27/11/2010

Stoke

-0.25

16/02/2010

Stoke

-0.25

31/01/2009

Stoke

-0.25

City, on the other hand, have been offered as -0.75 favourites over the last two seasons. So with a -1 handicap for the game this season, are they overrated at the Britannia again?

Click here to see the latest Premier League odds

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Who will win the Derby d’Italia?

Who will win the Derby d’Italia?

By Charlie Rowing Sep 3, 2013

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Perhaps the biggest game in Italy in terms of history is Inter Milan vs Juventus, and the pair add another chapter in their rivalry at the San Siro in Week 3 of the Serie A season. Both sides have made a good start by winning their opening two games, but who will manage to edge out their arch rivals?

All-change at the San Siro

After a disastrous 2012-13 season, which saw the Nerazzurri finish in 9th place – failing to qualify for either the Champions League or the Europa League for the first time since 1999 – it is no surprise to see wholesale changes.

This started with the dismissal of Andrea Stramaccioni at the end of last season, replaced by Walter Mazzarri who walked away from Napoli to take charge of Inter. Mazzarri has revamped the squad, with the additions of experienced defenders Hugo Campagnaro and Rolando, whom he worked with at Napoli.

Inter have also signed a number of young prospects in the form of Ishak Belfodil, Mauro Icardi, Wallace and Saphir Taider – all 21 years old or under. Whilst this may be good for Inter’s future, it could be bad for their immediate season as the lack of experience could be telling as the season wears on.

Plus at a big club like Inter Milan they will have immense pressure put on them, will they be able to rise to the occasion when they play Juventus? Or will the experience of Juventus prove to be far too telling? Inter’s current odds to win the game are 3.870* despite home advantage, underlining the uncertainty the market has towards the new look side.

Inter have a lot to make up after last season, they were so bad that had you wagered 10 on them to lose every game on 1×2 you would have made 150 profit. They also conceded 57 goals, the joint-second most goals in Serie A – only Pescara (84) who finished bottom conceded more.

Things weren’t much better at the other end, as Inter only managed 55 goals, which gave them a negative goal difference of -2, something they haven’t had for over 10 years in Serie A. Inter were the only team in the top 10 to concede more goals than they scored.

So far they have made a good start beating Genoa 2-0 at home on the opening day, followed up by a 3-0 away win at Catania, who covered the spread 60% of the time last season – the most in Serie A. This game however, facing the Champions from the previous two season’s, is the first real test of the Mazzarri era.

Juventus looking to extend their dominance

After success last season, Juventus will be trying to make it three titles in a row. Antonio Conte’s men have signed Carlos Tevez, Fernando Llorente and Angelo Ogbonna in order to strengthen their grip on the Scudetto and to be more competitive in Europe.

A poor preseason saw Juve lose four games, but the Old Lady returned to form in their first competitive game with an impressive 4-0 victory over Lazio in the Italian Super Cup, one week before the start of the Serie A season. They then followed this up with a 1-0 away win in a tricky season opener to Sampdoria.

Showing that their win over Lazio was no fluke, they put another four goals past them in a 4-1 win at the Juventus Stadium.

Can Juventus keep their momentum going? They are priced at 2.150* to beat Inter.

Head-to-head: Inter Milan vs Juventus

• Last season Inter Milan ended Juventus’ 49 game unbeaten streak in an unexpected 3-1 away win.

• Juventus later got some revenge, as they were able to triumph 2-1 in Milan.

• Three out of the last four encounters between the two sides have had 3 goals or more. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.909*.

• Six out of the last 10 games have had less than 3 goals, so backing Under 2.5 goals is priced at 2.010*.

• Five of the last 20 encounters between the two clubs have ended in draws. The draw is available at 3.370*.

• Over the last 10 seasons (20 matches) Juventus have covered the spread 50% of the time; Inter covered the handicap in six matches with a push in the remaining four. Inter Milan are 2.100* to cover the handicap, whilst Juventus are 1.847*.

Click here to read our article on Serie A betting.

Click here for the latest Serie A odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Weight could prove decisive in Mayweather vs. Alvarez outcome

Weight could prove decisive in Mayweather vs. Alvarez outcome

By Michael Gales Sep 6, 2013

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Floyd Mayweather fights Saul Alvarez on September 14th with both fighters’ unbeaten records on the line. With a 152lb catch weight, how pivotal will the 2lb difference be? This preview looks at a number of subjective factors that could affect the outcome of the fight.

‘Power’ may cause an upset

Both fighters enter the ring unbeaten but it is Floyd ‘Pretty Boy’ Mayweather who is the big 1.385* favourite to keep his unblemished record, while Saul ‘El Canelo’ Alvarez is the 3.310* underdog.

Mayweather (44-0-0 26 KO) is renowned for not getting hit. At his best, his defense and the ability to manage danger has made him unbeatable.

Having been down just once in his career against Carlos Hernandez, ‘Pretty Boy’ has never fought anyone who could knock him out – Mayweather avoided the likes of Kostya Tszu and Manny Pacquiao on his way up the ranks, both who had a realistic chance of putting him down with one punch – like Alvarez can.

Floyd’s own punching power has come under question with just three knockouts in his last ten fights. Alvarez (41-1-0 30 KO) on the other hand has real punching power. He badly hurt Austin Trout last time out and has knocked out 73% of his opponents, and will carry a genuine threat to Mayweather.

Alvarez’s menace is resembled in the odds, with the youngster offered at 5.500* to win before the final bell, however the most likely outcome according to the bookmakers is a points win by Mayweather 1.671*.

Who will the 152-pound catch weight benefit?

With the fight agreed at a 152-pound catch weight, how will this impact on the fight and who will it benefit?

If the size difference wasn’t an issue, the fight wouldn’t be at the catch weight. So come fight night it could potentially be one of the most significant stats in this bout. While both fighters are a similar height, Alvarez is stockier and appears to be stronger.

Mayweather prefers to fight at 147lbs, which allows him to maintain his fast hands and carry enough power to keep his opponents wary in their approach. Interestingly ‘Pretty Boy’ has fought twice before at junior middleweight (154lbs), but never come in above 151lbs.

Alvarez in comparison is comfortable at 154lbs and will naturally grow into a middleweight. However, the Mexican has regularly hydrated up to above 170 pounds.

It’s this 20-pound difference that could decide the outcome of the fight. In recent bouts Mayweather has looked comfortable fighting on the ropes, countering his opponents as they look to force the fight, however against a heavy Alvarez he could risk becoming worn down if the Mexican leans his extra weight on him all night.

Mayweather may face the problem of having to use his movement to avoid Canelo, however at 36, moving away from a larger opponent maybe as exhausting as letting him lean.

Who will the 2lbs hinder more? Bettors need to consider whether Alvarez will be faster or drained and if Mayweather will be sluggish?

Master vs. the apprentice

At 23 Alvarez is entering his prime years, while Mayweather will be 36, an age when the majority of fighters are declining.

Fighters in their late 30s can age overnight. Mayweather however, is not like most fighters, and has showed no signs of declining when he beat Robert Guerrero by unanimous decision in May, while his technical genius is a perfect foil to disguise any normal signs of ageing.

If the size difference wasn’t an issue, the fight wouldn’t be at the catch weight

Still, Alvarez’s status as the younger, hungrier fighter will compliment his approach to bully and pressurise Mayweather. Despite being just 23 Alvarez is vastly experienced for his age with 42 fights to his name – made possible by Mexico’s lower age requirement of 15 for professional fighters.

The young Mexican has been a major draw in his homeland since his teen years, so being thrown into the media spotlight will not be as daunting as it would for most young fighters.

Still the difference in experience is substantial. ‘Pretty Boy’ has been fighting in title fights since Alvarez was a small child and will ultimately have the edge in experience. So far Austin Trout is the only world-class opponent Alvarez has faced in his prime – Shane Moseley was a shadow of his former self when Alvarez beat him.

The win over Trout established Alvarez as the top fighter in his division, however Mayweather is a big step-up in quality. ‘Pretty Boy’ meanwhile has shown no signs of falling from his own peak anytime soon, but at 36, how long can this continue?

Fight Stats

Both fighters’ career statistics show that Mayweather lands on average 24 punches more than his opponents compared to Alvarez who lands an average of 18 more.

The Mexican (42%) surprisingly has a 1% advantage in punches landed, however he also gets tagged with 24% of his opponents punches compared to just 17% for Mayweather.

Alvarez lands 52% of power punches compared to 48% for Floyd, while ‘Pretty Boys’ defence is highlighted once more as he evades 21% of his opponents power punches.

Expect Alvarez to fight on the front foot, as he is notoriously busy in rounds landing on average 20 punches per round, while Mayweather throws amongst the fewest punches per round in boxing with an average of just 23.

This fight has a number of interesting permutations that can influence the outcome of the fight. The better the bettor understand these, will be key behind them making a profit.

See the latest Mayweather vs. Alvarez odds

*Odds subject to change

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Pole vital around Monza

Pole vital around Monza

By Michael Gales Sep 5, 2013

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With 80% of pole sitters taking the checkered flag at Monza over the past 10 seasons, qualifying is even more important in the Italian Grand Prix than a typical F1 race. Read this preview ahead of the Italian Grand Prix on September 8th to gain an edge.

Monza: ‘the temple of speed’

The last stop on the European tour of the season sees the drivers and teams arrive at the historic Monza circuit for the 2013 Italian Grand Prix on September 8th. Having been through several incarnations since 1922, the modern circuit is now very different from the original, although the historic banking remains.

The race can be short as the cars rattle around the 190-mile distance in less than 90 minutes. Monza has been called ‘the temple of speed’ because it’s the quickest circuit. A remarkable 75% of the lap is spent on full throttle, which is combined with some heavy braking areas. The circuit puts considerable forces on the tyres and requires high levels of mechanical grip.

Tyres/strategy

Pirelli have selected the same compounds – hard and medium – used at Spa two weeks ago. Car set-up will be a compromise between the fast and slower sectors of the circuit. With the tyres playing a crucial role at Monza, it will allow for several strategy opportunities.

Twelve months ago the top two – Lewis Hamilton and Sergio Perez – used a one-stop strategy, with Perez claiming the runner-up spot from 13th on the grid after starting on the hard and switching to the medium, while Hamilton did the opposite. The highest-placed driver to use a two-stop strategy was Michael Schumacher, who finished 6th.

Correlation

Previously, we’ve proved that there is a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here). By using the same model, we examined the last ten Italian Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at Monza as a race performance indicator.

The data shows a 0.56 correlation between qualifying and race position at Monza.  In addition to the strong relationship the data highlights 70% of races correlate, showcasing that qualifying at Monza provides a strong predictor of a drivers’ race performance.

An impressive 80% of pole sitters have gone on to win the Italian GP in the last 10 GPs. This highlights that starting from pole is vital in securing an advantage for the race around Monza.

Vettel & Alonso keen to leave a mark

The two drivers  – Sebastian Vettel 2.840* and Fernando Alonso 4.360* – leading the World Championship will be hoping to claim victory at Monza, while both arrive at this year’s race chasing the same goal – the first to three Italian GP wins.

Between the two they have won four of the last six races at Monza – Alonso in 2007 & 2010, Vettel in 2008 & 2011 – and should either win on Sunday they would become the eighth driver to win more than twice at the historic circuit since 1950.

If Alonso or Felipe Massa secure the win for Ferrari it will give the Italian manufacturers their 19th home F1 win. Interestingly, last year’s winner Lewis Hamilton 4.850* could become the first driver since Damon Hill in 1993-94 to win at Monza in consecutive years.

Click here for the latest Italian Grand Prix odds.

*Odds subject to change

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