How to bet on the NFL
By Michael Gales Sep 3, 2013
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NFL is becoming more and more popular outside of the US, and with more regular season games planned on UK soil over the next few years, betting on the NFL is set to become more prominent.
Despite the NFL only arriving on these shores once a year, American football fans can still watch the NFL all year round, so with more and more fans watching, this is the perfect time to learn how to bet on the NFL.
Betting On The NFL
There are three basic NFL bets. Most bookmakers including Pinnacle Sports offer a two-way win market on the outcome of the game – the equivalent of a soccer 1×2 but without the draw in North America called the Money Line, Handicap and Total Points markets.
The win market 1×2 is popular, because it is straight forward. You simply bet on either side winning the game.
The only thing to check is what the policy is towards the unlikely event of a draw. At Pinnacle Sports any two-way win bets are refunded when a game is tied in regular time. Though the game will actually go into over-time to be decided, as standard bets apply to regular time unless otherwise stated.
The Handicap market is the most popular way to bet on the NFL in North America, and is the standard reference point for referring to relative chances in a game. As is the case in all sport, opposing NFL teams vary in strength. To effectively, counter the perceived bias in abilities, bookmakers offer a ‘handicap’ to level the playing field.
The Handicap market is the most popular way to bet on the NFL in North America
By using a fictional example, we can explain how betting on a handicap works. Both teams are offered associated odds on either a plus or minus points score, so for example the Indianapolis Colts are offered at -6 1.909 against the New York Giants +6 2.020.
A bet on Indianapolis would have won if the Colts won by six or more points, and similarly a bet on Chicago would have paid if the Giants had won the game, or lost by less than six points.
Saying the result was (29-17) to the Colts, those punters who bet on the Colts to win -6 1.909 would have won as the point difference was 12. Six more than the point’s handicap offered.
Totals betting on the NFL focuses on how many combined points will be scored by both teams during the game. Bookmakers will generally offer an option to bet on whether or not the total points will be either over or under their mark. This is why this is often referred to as the Over/Under. (Click here to learn more about each bet type).
In both the Handicap and Totals markets, when a team exceeds the required points for a successful bet it is called ‘covering the bet’.
NFL Betting – Developing Strategies
Once you have mastered the basics of NFL betting, you may want to explore some more advanced strategies. For example, punters looking to bet on the NFL handicaps must take into consideration a number of other factors than just the chances of team X beating team Y, but by how many points X is better than Y?
Professional NFL bettors spend time building power ranking systems to evaluate teams’ relative strengths and calculate who will have the advantage in any given game. This is then measured against the handicaps and odds offered by bookmakers – looking for discrepancies that represent value.
However, for those bettors new to NFL betting, there are some accessible handicapping systems that can produce accurate results in the short term.
Yardage Differential
At the most basic level the NFL is about the battle between offensive and defensive units. So one simple way to evaluate the strength of an NFL team is to look at the average offensive yards gained per play and the average defensive yards allowed per play.
As you would expect, teams that gain more yards than they allow, tend to win. While this isn’t exclusively accurate, this measure is at least as good a predictor of future performance. (Learn more about yards per play rankings here)
Home Field Advantage
NFL operates in a unique ‘closed’ league system, where relegation and promotion do not occur. From a statistical point of view, the data from successive seasons for such factors as Home Field Advantage (HFA) is robust.
To work out HFA for each franchise competing in the NFL you should subtract the total points scored by visiting teams from the home teams, and divide by the total number of games played.
You will notice after working out the HFA for the past 20 years, each Franchise HFA is close to a 3-point mark, which has become standard for handicapping purposes. (Learn more about calculating HFA here)
Key NFL Numbers
When betting on the NFL handicap there are a few key numbers to be aware of. These numbers are the margins most landed on relative to the NFL final score.
By understanding what the key numbers are, you can avoid betting on a bad handicap and can even work out which team the bookmaker wants you to bet on.
For instance 3 is the most common margin of victory in the NFL as most games are decided late on by a field goal, while 7 is the second most common winning margin, as this is how many points a team is awarded for a touchdown plus an extra point for a successful conversion.
You are now in a position to handicap the NFL, and use your figures to compare against the handicap available at Pinnacle Sports. Don’t forget Pinnacle Sports offer the best NFL odds online with just a 2% margin on all NFL handicaps.
*Odds subject to change
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