понедельник, 2 февраля 2015 г.

In-play Football Tips: Red card to appear late in Celtic v Rangers

After a shaky start, Celtic are in contention for four trophies

Michael Lintorn studies in-play trends for Celtic v Rangers, Augsburg v Hoffenheim and Monaco v Lyon...

Celtic v Rangers
Sunday, 13:30
Live on BBC One Scotland

Match Odds: Celtic 1.351/3, Rangers 10.5n/a, The Draw 5.95/1

It has been ages since such a claim was viable but Scotland quite possibly hosts the most intriguing of all Sunday's contests as Old Firm juggernauts Celtic and Rangers are reunited for the first time in almost three years in the League Cup semi-finals. A clash with Dundee United awaits the winners.

One of the first things you think of when it comes to this fixture is the sendings off: there have been eight in nine derbies. However, three of the most recent four came very late - in the 75th minute or beyond - creating interesting in-play possibilities, for instance holding out for bigger odds than the current price of 2.427/5, or even attempting a pre-match lay in the market with a view to Cashing Out.

Augsburg v Hoffenheim
Sunday, 16:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Match Odds: Augsburg 2.427/5, Hoffenheim 3.211/5, The Draw 3.55n/a

The Bundesliga is back, and the embarrassing underperformance of Borussia Dortmund, coupled with the continuing struggles of other historic forces like Hamburg, Werder Bremen and Stuttgart has invited Augsburg and Hoffenheim to mount Champions League challenges. Augsburg will go joint-third if they win this game, while Hoffenheim would move within a point of the top four.

The trend to be aware of in this encounter is that Augsburg have given up the opening goal in five successive Bundesliga matches. Whenever they have conjured a response by the 55th minute, they have gone on to win - they haven't drawn all season - yet if they don't net by then, they lose to nil.

Monaco v Lyon
Sunday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Match Odds: Monaco 2.226/5, Lyon 3.8514/5, The Draw 3.3512/5

Ligue 1 was supposed to lose any semblance of competitiveness when Paris St-Germain were taken over by wealthy Qatari investors in 2011, with the outcome of title races expected to be more predictable than during Lyon's seven-year domination from 2001 to 2008.

Yet three years on from Montpellier's sensational upset, a gripping three-team fight has developed, and Lyon have the opportunity to reassert a four-point advantage over Marseille and Paris St-Germain if they do what nobody has done since September and win away to Monaco.

A run of seven straight league victories implies a better chance than their odds of 3.8514/5 do, and they haven't lost a league game that they led since August. Indeed, the past five times that they have fired first - always by the 40th minute and four times by Alexandre Lacazette - they have won to nil.

Against All Odds: Barcelona to let down favourite backers

Luis Enrique is under pressure to deliver results

The big match in La Liga comes from the Nou Camp this evening and Paul Robinson thinks that Villarreal can spring a surprise and thwart Barcelona's title challenge.

Barcelona v Villarreal
Sunday February 1, 20:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 5

Since suffering a 1-0 defeat at Real Sociedad, Barcelona have gone on to win their next seven matches, by an aggregate scoreline of 26-3. Only three of those were league games though so they still trail leaders, Real Madrid, by four points. That might not seem like a lot, but given that Real have won 17 of 20, it's not like they are going to drop too many more points in the second half of the campaign.

It's never easy to find reasons for opposing the Catalan giants, but betting is all about value and Luis Enrique's side are a very short price. They were even shorter when they hosted Celta Vigo back in November and that ended in a shock 1-0 win for the visitors. I would also argue that despite a forward line of Messi, Neymar and Suarez, Barca are a waning force who don't possess the fear factor they once did.

Despite all that, there are only a handful of teams I would tip to get a result against them, and one of those is this evening's opponents. The Yellow Submarine are enjoying a renaissance since their promotion back to the top flight in 2013. A top six finish last year saw them qualify for Europe and they will be hopeful of winning their three-way battle with Sevilla and Valencia to finish fourth this season.

Marcelino's men are flying right now as a 1-0 win at Getafe on Thursday was their fourth win to nil in a row, and it extended their unbeaten run to 18 games in all competitions. While the critics will argue that they have faced some sub-standard opposition during that period, they travelled to Vicente Caldern and beat reigning champions, Atletico Madrid, 1-0.

Before you go putting Barcelona into your Sunday accumulators without giving it much thought, please consider the above. I certainly won't be a backer, and yes, while they might well win, they definitely aren't value. That's why, at around the 1.241/4 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Barcelona v Villarreal @ 1.241/4

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 30 pts
Returned: 22.18 pts
P/L: - 7.82 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

Transfer Deadline Day Premier League Shopping List: Arsenal to Manchester United

Alan Pardew was the man Crystal Palace really wanted

Transfer Deadline Day is upon us, and Luke Moore assesses the personnel that Premier League teams may well be after before the window closes...

Arsenal
Current Position: 5th
Amount Spent in August 2014 Window: 78m
Problem Area: Defensive Midfield

As just about every Arsenal fan breathes a sigh of relief that they've actually signed a defender in the shape of Villarreal's Gabriel Paulista, Arsenal's attention should turn to trying to obtain a world-class holding midfield player. Mathieu Flamini is no longer up to it, Abu Diaby isn't really a full time professional footballer anymore due to a tragic injury record, and a screening presence in front of that back four a la Gilberto 'The Invisible Shield' Silva would make a huge difference to this side.

That said, I fully expect this deadline day to pass with about as much activity from Arsene Wenger as Adel Taarabt in training - no movement, and a whole heap of excuses.

Aston Villa
Current Position: 15th
Amount Spent in August 2014 window: 4.7m
Problem Area: Terrified of Scoring Goals

Aston Villa Chief Executive Tom Fox was on the radio last night denying that Randy Lerner wants to sell the club and insisting that he remains fully committed to ownership and to Paul Lambert. If that is to be taken as gospel, Lerner needs to put his hand in his pocket. 11 league goals is an embarrassing return for a Premier League club at this stage of the season and if the Villans are to ensure safety they need to score a hatful more.

In theory, and I say in theory because he's hot and cold, Christian Benteke should be able to score the chances that are created, but it's not working in the final third for Villa at the moment. The highly-rated Carles Gl will help, but they need something more. What I'm trying to say here is that the Villa Park outfit should go after any forward player they can. A rumoured signing of Scott Sinclair on loan is a step in the right direction, presuming he can still remember what a footballer is supposed to do.

Burnley
Current Position: 17th
Amount Spent in August 2014 Window: 1.5m
Problem Area: Multiple

Sean Dyche and Burnley are looking to stay in the Premier League on work rate and passion alone, and that's very noble. It also probably won't work, and the Clarets are desperate for a bit of quality. Of course, it's financially prudent to not leverage the club in the pursuit of ever-expanding wage demands and transfer fees, but the level of income a club receives these days from simply plying their trade in the top flight should mean that Dyche is given more than a paltry 1.5m to spend.

They're heavily reliant on Danny Ings for goals, and concede far too many. It feels to me like Burnley have had more joy recently by being a bit more direct though, and so a target man that isn't Lukas Jutkiewicz to compliment the diminutive Ings and energetic George Boyd and Ashley Barnes might go down a treat. Other than that, unless a 26-year-old Paolo Maldini is available it's hard to see them staying up.

Chelsea
Current Position: 1st
Amount Spent in August 2014 Window: 88.5m
Problem Area: Campaign Against Them By The Media

Chelsea appear to have amended the one problem they had last season (a lack of a world-class striker) and now look as if they're going to power to the title. Jose Mourinho appears to want to upgrade a player or two in wide areas though, and it seems highly likely that Andre Schurrle and Mohamed Salah will move on with the fiery, lightning-quick Colombian Juan Cuadrado coming in from Fiorentina.

On the face of it, that looks a good move. Mourinho doesn't rate Schurrle or Salah above Willian or Eden Hazard, but Cuadrado can offer something a bit different. Other than that it's hard to think of how Chelsea can improve; they look a worse team without Nemanja Matic in there, so perhaps a back-up player for him that isn't John Obi Mikel might well be pertinent. That said, Matic is probably the best in the world in that position so it'll always be hard to swallow his loss, whoever comes in.

Crystal Palace
Current Position: 13th
Amount Spent in August 2014 Window: 12.9m
Problem Area: Lack of Goals

In one way, Palace have got the man they wanted above all else in the shape of their new manager Alan Pardew. They should have no problem staying up now with his experience at the helm, and the confidence around the team thanks to his appointment and the support of the league's best fans is worth a fair few points to them at this key part of the season.

It would be no bad thing for the Eagles to improve competition for places up front however; Dwight Gayle (who is still very raw himself) is the only forward player scoring goals in any number, and that's probably why Pardew has made a move for Blackburn's Rudy Gestede who has gone from a striker terrified of hitting the back of the net to a man who's been among the goals a lot recently and looks a genuinely dangerous player at Ewood Park.

Shola Ameobi has also been linked, but I don't really think it's got quite to that stage yet. Or has it?

Everton
Current Position: 12th
Amount Spent in August 2014 Window: 32.8m
Problem Area: Conceding Goals

This season has been hugely disappointing so far for Everton fans. They've failed to capitalise on the impetus that they showed in Roberto Martinez's debut season at Goodison Park and now find themselves in serious danger of a relegation scrap. Just four points off the drop zone and with a tough run of games coming up, things need to change rapidly for Martinez's men.

The forward men weigh in with a decent amount of goals between them, but a fit, solid back up in central defence is a must. Sylvain Distin has been a brilliant servant to the Premier League but is now 37 and can't be relied upon consistently, and John Stones is still learning his trade. If Everton can snap up a top-quality centre-half a lot of their problems may well disappear.

Hull City
Current Position: 18th
Amount Spent in August 2014 Window: 32.9m
Problem Area: Apple Cart Officially Upset

The Tigers spent an astronomical amount in the last window for a club of their size, but despite a solid debut season back in the top flight they've really struggled in their sophomore year. It's hard to know what Steve Bruce can do in terms of signings to get them back winning games - they've signed so many players already that upsetting the apple cart has probably been part of their problem.

My advice to Bruce: Move away from the cheque book. You've done enough damage with your high-falutin' ways.

Leicester City
Current Position: 20th
Amount Spent in August 2014 Window: 8m
Problem Area: Lack of Goals

Despite only paying a fee for Leonardo Ulloa, Leicester brought a number of new personnel into their squad for this campaign, but save a decent headline-grabbing win over Man United, haven't really got any sort of fluency or consistency in performances so far.

They have, on paper, a decent and complimentary group of forward players, but they still don't score enough goals. They also concede far too many. I'd personally like to see them try and upgrade that holding/defensive midfield position - it's a hugely important one in the Premier League and Dean Hammond isn't up to it, Danny Drinkwater hasn't really stepped up since promotion and Esteban Cambiasso has been inconsistent.

Either that, or get Nigel Pearson to actually scare the ball into the net. He could do it, I've seen his eyes.

Liverpool
Current Position: 8th
Amount Spent in August 2014 Window: 117m
Problem Area: Goalkeeper

Despite slight improvement recently, Simon Mignolet isn't a keeper good enough to match the ambitions Brendan Rodgers and Liverpool have, and Brad Jones isn't of the quality to step into the breach long-term. Rodgers appears to agree with that assessment judging by how keen he was to snap up ex-Barcelona stopper Victor Valdes, but he went to Manchester United and the Reds still look short in that department.

There are plenty of goalkeepers available for a club of Liverpool's size - Maarten Stekelenburg, Diego Lopez, Timo Horn, or perhaps looking closer to home, Asmir Begovic would all likely be attracted to the prospect of moving to Anfield.

Manchester City
Current Position: 2nd
Amount Spent in August 2014 Window: 53m
Problem Area: Authorities Threatening to Stop Them Spending More Money

I actually think Man City could do with a better first-choice goalkeeper than Joe Hart, but realise I may not be in the majority there. So, aside from that, which areas could City do with strengthening in? Well, they undoubtedly need a solid, reliable partner for Vincent Kompany. Eliaquim Mangala has struggled since coming over from France, Martin Demichelis' best days are behind him and Matija Nastastic appears to have dropped off the face of the planet (ok, he's gone to Schalke on loan).

With City's budget and pull it's difficult trying to work out who they might target, but after the signing of Wilfried Bony FFP may limit them to small amount of activity this window. 

Manchester United
Current Position: 4th
Amount Spent in August 2014 Window: 145.5m
Problem Area: Defensively Hapless On Occasion

Manchester United broke the record for the most amount spent by a club in one transfer window in the summer, bringing in a whole host of new names to work under Louis van Gaal. That said, they still look light at the back and are desperate for a big-name, experienced defender to shore them up and instill confidence.

Argentine central defender Nicols Otamendi has been linked repeatedly with a move to Old Trafford, with Valencia saying they rejected a bid from an unnamed club (rumoured to be United) earlier in the month. Otamendi is having a good season at the Mestalla, has experience at both Champions League and World Cup level, and could well be the answer to their defensive issues. Mats Hummels is another linked, and would also fit the bill.

Back who you think will buy and loan the most players in this transfer window here!

Current Odds:

West Brom 2/1
Swansea 7/2
Crystal Palace 4/1
Leicester 7/1
QPR 7/1
Arsenal 10/1
Sunderland 10/1
Hull 12/1
Burnley 20/1
Liverpool 20/1
Manchester United 20/1
Southampton 20/1
Stoke 20/1
Chelsea 25/1
Everton 25/1
Manchester City 25/1
Tottenham 28/1
West Ham 28/1
Aston Villa 33/1
Newcastle 33/1 

Transfer Talk: Khedira to spurn EPL for Turkey?

Sami Khedira could be Turkey bound

Transfer talk favourite Sami Khedira is back again but for once he isn't being linked with a move to a Premier League club.

Manchester United midfielder Anderson could have been offered a way out of Old Trafford.

The Telegraph are reporting the Brazilian has been offered a return to his native Brazil by Internacional.

The 26-year-old, who has made just two first-team appearances this season, is out of contract at the end of this season and despite previous attempts by United to offload Anderson there had until now been no takers.

The Brazil international spent last season on loan at Fiorentina but returned to Manchester in the summer with the Italian side declining the offer to make his stay permanent.

Internacional are understood to have been offered Anderson on a free transfer, the midfielder having failed to impress at Old Trafford since his 26million move from Porto in 2007.

Staying in the Premier League, and former Manchester United striker Diego Forlan could be on his way back to England.

The Uruguayan has been offered to West Brom, Hull City and West Ham United, according to the Express & Star.

Albion boss Tony Pulis missed out on the chance to sign Shola Ameobi, who has joined Crystal Palace and Forlan could be a another option if he leaves Japanese side Cerezo Osaka.

The 35-year-old struggled during his time at Old Trafford before moving to Spain, where he enjoyed successful periods with Villareal and then Atletico Madrid.

Forlan's contract in Japan runs until the end of the season but reports suggest he is available on loan until the end of the season.

Elsewhere, Tottenham Hotspur captain Younes Kaboul could be used as part of a swap deal for Stuttgart's Timo Werner.

The Mirror are reporting Spurs are willing to use Kaboul in an attempt to sign the 18-year-old forward.

Werner was Stuttgart's youngest ever player when he made his debut in 2013, and while the German side are likely to reject any move involving Werner they are still hopeful of signing 29-year-old Kaboul .

Finally, Germany international Sami Khedira is being lined up by Turkish side Trabzonspor.

The Daily Star are reporting that sources in Turkey are linking Khedira with a move to the Super Lig when his current contract with Real Madrid expires in the summer.

The World Cup winner has been linked with moves to Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea but the Turkish side are hoping a lucrative contract will be enough to sway the 27-year-old.

Lays of the Weekend: Blackpool to trip Brighton again

Chris Hughton has suffered two defeats as Brighton boss

Michael Lintorn explains why he is opposing Brighton, Oldham and Shrewsbury in the Football League...

Lay Brighton to win away to Blackpool @ 1.8910/11

Blackpool suffered a morale-depleting experience last weekend, earning a magnificent 2-0 half-time lead away to Watford only to capitulate and lose 7-2, but there are several reasons to believe that they will react positively against Brighton. The Seagulls endured a momentum buster of their own last Sunday: an FA Cup exit to disrupt a run of four wins in five.

Lee Clark's hosts haven't been beaten at Bloomfield Road in any of their five clashes against sides placed 11th or lower, winning three, drawing two and conceding a mere two goals. Their sole reverse in five at home was when welcoming leaders Bournemouth, and they drew away to Brighton in September during their joyless start to the season.

Lay Oldham to beat Notts County @ 1.9620/21

Neither of these teams have been in hot form recently having previously placed themselves in play-off contention, but there is a compelling case for Notts County avoiding defeat at Boundary Park.

The Latics haven't won at their stadium in six attempts across all competitions after achieving seven victories in nine prior to that, whereas their visitors have lost just two out of 13 on their League One travels.

If you require a bit more convincing, we have just the statistic for you: Notts County have ventured to clubs below them in the table on seven times already in 2014/15, winning five, drawing two and keeping six clean sheets.

Lay Shrewsbury to win at Newport @ 2.265/4

Shrewsbury may be second in League Two, yet they are a completely different side away (W3 D4 L6) to what they are at home (W12 D2 L0). That has to be taken into account at sixth-placed Newport, who haven't lost a league match in front of their fans since the opening day (W8 D4). Even that blemish was inflicted by leaders Wycombe.

The Shrews' road inadequacy has been most visible when confronting the division's other heavyweights. They have fired blanks against six of the seven top-half clubs that they have faced away to date, including each of the three currently occupying play-off spots.

Tunisia v Equatorial Guinea: Opposing the favourites the smart bet in last-eight showdown

Home fans have had plenty to celebrate at the tournament

The hosts are strong enough to cause a shock on Saturday night, writes James Eastham...

Tunisia v Equatorial Guinea
Sat, 19:30 GMT
Live on British Eurosport

Tunisia qualified for the quarter-finals as Group B winners, collecting 5pts from three games. Hosts Equatorial Guinea qualified as Group A runners-up, also picking up 5pts from three group matches.

Match Odds
Tunisia 2.226/5, Equatorial Guinea 4.03/1, The Draw 3.1511/5

Going into the finals Tunisia were rated as dark horses and certainly favoured to go further than Equatorial Guinea even though the latter had home advantage.

But it hasn't quite turned out like that. The two teams had identical W1-D2-L0 records during the group phase and Equatorial Guinea had a superior goal difference (+2 to Tunisia's +1). You could argue Equatorial Guinea landed in a slightly easier group so had a more straightforward passage to the knockout phase but the truth is there was very little difference in terms of performance standard between these two teams.

For that reason the odds on Tunisia look too short. They certainly have the potential to win and may come good here but based on what we've seen at the tournament I'd rather be on the draw or the underdogs.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals
Unders 1.4840/85, Overs 2.962/1

This has been a low-scoring tournament. The average goals-per-game count during the group phase was 1.88 and 19 out of those 24 group games (79%) featured under 2.5 goals. All three of Equatorial Guinea's group games and two of Tunisia's three group games featured under 2.5 goals so there's no particularly good reason to expect this game to buck the low-scoring trend.

Recent history shows Africa Cup of Nations quarter-finals are higher-scoring than you might expect - half of the quarter-finals over the past five tournaments have featured three goals or more in 90 minutes. But I'm unwilling to back overs based on what I've seen from these two teams.

Half Time Score

Generally speaking first-halves have been slow affairs where the two teams have cancelled each other out. It is therefore no surprise that only 28% of the tournament's 45 goals have been scored in the first-halves of games.

Two of Tunisia's three group games and two of Equatorial Guinea's three group games were goalless at the interval. Given the nature of the first-halves so far, backing a 0-0 half-time scoreline at an odds-against price could prove profitable.

Correct Score

Ten of the 24 group games ended 1-1 so that would be the pick in the correct score market - especially if, like me, you believe this game will be closer than the Match Odds market suggests. Available at 6.611/2, the 1-1 scoreline should draw plenty of backers.

Recommended Bets
The Draw @ 3.1511/5
0-0 Half Time Score @ 2.35/4

Tournament P/L

Staked: 14pts
Returned: 7.97pts
P/L: -6.03pts

Opta Stats: West Bromwich Albion v Tottenham Hotspur

Can Christian Eriksen continue the heroics when Spurs meet West Brom?

Fresh from booking their place in a Wembley final, Spurs take on West Brom. Opta crunches the numbers so you don't have to.

West Brom's win over Spurs earlier this season ended a run of nine Barclays Premier League games without a win over the Londoners (W0 D5 L4). The draw is 3.3512/5.

Spurs are unbeaten in their last four Premier League trips to the Hawthorns (W2 D2). Tottenham are 2.6613/8 to win.

Christian Eriksen has scored in two of his three Premier League games against West Brom. Eriksen is likely to be priced at around 4.216/5 to score.

Seven of Tottenham's last eight Premier League wins have been by a 2-1 scoreline. They are 11.010/1 to win 2-1.

Spurs' record after 22 games this campaign is worse than each of the last five seasons. You can lay them at 1.981/1 to finish in the top six.

Spurs have conceded more penalties than any other team in the Premier League this season (6). West Brom's penalty taker Saido Berahino is likely to be priced at around 3.259/4 to score.

Harry Kane has scored six goals in his last seven Premier League appearances. Kane is 2.915/8 to score.

Tottenham have lost just one of their last eight Premier League matches (W5 D2 L1). The draw half-time/Spurs full-time double result is 6.411/2.