Men's French Open Betting: Rafa to have few problems seeing off Klizan

Rafa Nadal should make light work of Martin Klizan today

The weather forecast looks a tad grim around Roland Garros on Thursday, but we're hopeful of some play and tennis expert Sean Calvert brings us the latest tips in the men's singles...

Day four of the 2013 French Open was a good one for this column with two winners from my three recommended bets on the day.

Unfortunately, young Aussie star Nick Kyrgios was injured and unable to put up much of a fight in sets two and three against Marin Cilic, but Viktor Troicki defeated Daniel Gimeno-Traver and Michael Llodra did enough against Milos Raonic.

Troicki should have won all five sets he played against the Spaniard, but somehow contrived to lose two of them, while Llodra took the second set against Raonic to land the 3-0 lay of the Canadian.

Thursday's schedule at Roland Garros features both Rafa Nadal and Novak Djokovic and the former takes to Court Suzanne Lenglen at around 1pm UK time depending upon the length of the two women's matches beforehand and I expect Rafa to dispose of Martin Klizan with less fuss than was the case with Daniel Brands in round one.

Rafa is 36-4 on clay against left handers such as Klizan and two of those losses go back to 2003 and 2004, with the defeat to Horacio Zeballos coming when he was returning from injury and the other loss was to Fernando Verdasco on the infamous blue clay of Madrid last year.

Klizan is a talent on his day, but his days are few and far between and I cannot see him having the consistent shot-making ability or raw power required to trouble Nadal in their first career meeting. The Slovakian has done little on clay this season and has never faced a top-five ranked opponent in his career so far.

He'll do well to cover a +9.5 game handicap today and the Nadal minus 9.5 games looks the bet in this one at around 1.910/11.

On Court 7 in the afternoon there's what should be an entertaining clash between Robin Haase and Jerzy Janowicz and the layers appear to have overrated the Pole in this one.

Janowicz had a good win over Albert Ramos in the last round, but the Spaniard does have the quitting gene when things aren't going his way and the first two sets were very close.

Haase has a bigger game than Ramos and can cause some damage if the Pole doesn't serve his best and the Dutchman is a very capable player on the clay. Now that he's got the monkey off his back by finally winning a tie break he should at least take a set in this and I like the +4.5 games about him today at 1.9210/11.

Recommended Bets
Back Nadal -9.5 games to beat Klizan at 1.910/11
Back Haase +4.5 games to beat Janowicz at 1.9210/11

The Joker's Bet of the Day: Swedes sail over goals

There will be time for tricks at Idrottspark after a few early goals

Don't be an idiot at Idrottspark

They did go faster, but they took the long way round.

Honka 1 Lahti 0 in Finland last night.

But it was an 87th-minute winner and not before a young man(?) named Kastrati got sent off for the hosts.

It took balls to come back from that.

In Sweden there have been Over 2.5 goals in 10/11 of Norrkoping's Allsvenskan home matches and in 7/10 AIK Solna away matches.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.9520/21 in Norrkoping v AIK

Derby and Oaks Betting 2013: The Irish view on the Epsom action

Battle Of Marengo is Tony's Derby selection

Tonk Keenan runs the rule over the Irish contenders for this weekend's two Classics at Epsom, The Derby and The Oaks...

When backing a horse around 2.35/4 one needs almost everything in your favour and that clearly isn't the case with Dawn Approach in Saturday's Derby; there are doubts about his stamina and the value of what he achieved in the 2,000 Guineas. The positives with him are clear to see: his form is the best, he has improved for each step up in trip, he races like one that will get the distance so there is a chance he will prove another Sea The Stars, capable of his best over every trip.

The dam side of his breeding would not support this however - a mile likely to prove his optimum going by the distaff - and Jim Bolger went through 2012 saying he was a Guineas not a Derby horse, the impression being he has been swayed to this race by the owner.

Then there is the weakness of the Newmarket form; a 150/1 shot second, the third well beaten since, Toronado seemingly not running to form. That a Derby trial winner (Magician) could so easily dispatch the three-year-old milers in the Irish 2,000 Guineas last weekend suggests the crop is not all it might be and while Dawn Approach is a long way clear of the remainder there are enough question marks to oppose him at the price.

Sadly, Magician won't be at Epsom on Derby Day, the race seemingly coming too soon after his Curragh romp. But this son of Galileo is certainly worth keeping an eye on this season with his mediocre juvenile form perhaps enabling us to back him at a better price than his three-year-old form warrants.

Battle Of Marengo was my long-term fancy for this race though he seems the right price now; his Derrinstown win was visually unimpressive though High Chaparral was similarly workmanlike in that race prior to his win here. That he has long been seen as the Ballydoyle number one has to be a plus in a year when the yard have won all the meaningful trials with the exception of the Dante and there's a lot to like about his overall profile; he is likely to stay, seems to handle any ground and just keeps winning.

Of the others, Ocovango has to improve to win and his jockey's inexperience around the track is a negative whereas Chopin is difficult to weigh up. Libertarian never travelled in the Dante and it's hard to see him getting way with that here whereas Mars has at least a stone to find, the Guineas form is weak and he may not handle the track having not come down the hill well at Newmarket for all that the adaptability to the track angle can be overdone.

The Oaks is a poor renewal with just four of the entries having a triple-figure official rating coming into the race and chances are it won't take a big performance to win it.

Secret Gesture is the highest rated on Timeform figures with 126p but it can pay to be sceptical of wide-margin, heavy ground winners and she's unproven on a faster surface with the dam side of her family saying mud-lark. She looks short enough at current prices.

Similar comments apply to Liber Nauticus for all that her trainer commands maximum respect in races like this; she may find this coming to early in her development and I find it hard to back a tail-swisher like Banoffee in any race, much less a classic.

Moth looks the one then. She shaped like the best horse in the 1,000 Guineas and while that was a moderate renewal it is still Group 1 form that has worked out through Just The Judge. She handles fast ground and is bred for the step up in trip, shaping that way at Newmarket too though not without a turn-of-foot. Like Magician, she's a different proposition in 2013 and when these O'Brien fillies start improving they can be hard to stop.

If there is to be an upset in the race then perhaps Talent could provide it; at very least she should out-run her odds. Her last win looks decent form in this context and is on an upward curve; she looks overpriced due to be being stable second string after Secret Gesture.

Recommended Bets

Back Battle Of Marengo (if not done so previously) in the Derby
Back Moth and a saver on Talent in the Oaks

Jamie Lynch's Derby Preview: Staying with the family

Dawn Approach's stamina will be put to the test in the Derby

What's the key race ahead of this year's Derby? Is it the Guineas, or the Derrinstown, or the Dante? Jamie Lynch suggests it may in actual fact be a maiden hurdle at Limerick in 2005 as he unravels the pivotal issue of the race...

On April 24th, the day of the inconsequential Derby Trial at Epsom, the wider racing world paid tribute at the passing of a horse who changed the face of breeding, Storm Cat. The sire of over 100 Graded winners, including eight champion racehorses, Storm Cat's fee, at his height, was $500,000, though as many as 91 of his yearlings sold for $1m or more. His legacy lives on, by bloodline but also by name, with related 'Cats' still purring and pursing around the globe today. 

Two such 'Cats', Fantasticat and Danticat, a son and grandson respectively of Storm Cat, met one July evening in a two-year-old maiden at Tipperary in 2003. Danticat emerged on top, but from then on the pair took very different paths: a tale of two kitties, you could say. 

While Danticat's career consisted of pot-hunting around Ireland, picking up low-grade handicaps, including over hurdles, Fantasticat took off once rerouted to his spiritual home in the USA, winning the Super Derby - yes, the Super Derby - at Louisiana and ending up in the Breeders' Cup Classic. 

He could be a key piece of evidence in the specific conundrum of this year's Derby at Epsom, 'he' being not the Super Derby winner but the humble pot-hunter.

Danticat is out of Colonial Debut, making him a half-brother to Hymn of The Dawn and, crucially therefore, a near-relation of Dawn Approach, effectively his uncle. In Danticat, here we have a horse who, by Tale of The Cat, was bred to be a miler, but showed sufficient stamina to win at an extended mile-and-a-half on the Flat and as far as two miles over hurdles; and stamina, and stamina alone, is the will-he-won't-he riddle over Dawn Approach in the Derby. And it is a riddle.

What needs economising when it's at a premium, no doubt.
And what can you run out of, but not run without.
What proof was in Rum but was lacking in Whisky.
What goes down even when saved, making stretching it risky?  

Stamina. That's what makes the Derby the ultimate test, as it challenges endurance as well as ability. Nobody is questioning Dawn Approach's ability, and nobody is questioning his would-be stamina from the male line of his pedigree, which, from three generations back, reads Sadler's Wells, Derby winner (Galileo), Derby winner (New Approach). The doubt lies elsewhere, principally in the other half of his breeding. 

Naturally, there is a fear-factor involved in a horse going four furlongs further than he's ever been before, especially against rivals that are guaranteed to improve for the distance, but the sceptic squadron who are gunning for the distaff side of Dawn Approach's pedigree - the dambusters as we'll call them - are perhaps overlooking the starker evidence, including Danticat's testimony for the defence. 

Dawn Approach goes into the Derby with a Timeform rating (132) that, in the last 25 years, only Generous and Workforce have surpassed in actually winning the race. That's how exceptional he already is. By Timeform reckoning, Dawn Approach has upwards of 11 lb in hand of the Derby pack, the equivalent of around six lengths, giving him some leeway for a 'get away if not quite stay' performance. I think he'll stay, which is all that can be said. It's impossible to know or to be forthright, but you can put a price on it. 

If the Derby was run over a mile, or even a mile and a quarter, Dawn Approach would be nearer 1.42/5, reflective more of his proven ability and less of his invisible stamina. As it is, he's around 2.0421/20, suggesting it's 50/50, a coin toss, as to whether he stays or not. It's not though, is it? But neither is it as simple as all that...

The Racemakers will be out in force at Epsom, but the ones with a Qipco jacket and vainglorious smile will be put into the shade when the true, blue-ticked Racemakers roll into town: Ballydoyle. These are the boys who can really make and shape a race for you. They will have a plan to beat Dawn Approach, and however many horses it takes, betting without the one (most probably Flying The Flag) in there to set 'a nice, even tempo', in the same way that McDonalds likes to provide nice, even food.  
 
The faster they go, the greater the stamina test, the better for their stayers, and the worse for Dawn Approach. That's the presumed logic, though Aidan O'Brien has sometimes bowled a googly when least expected, and it's least expected in this year's Derby. Either way, the Ballydoyle challenge won't be what it might have been, remembering how Kingsbarns blew away his teammates - Battle of Marengo included - in the private trial ahead of the Racing Post Trophy, then blew away the field in the race itself. 

It wasn't in the conventional way, but Telescope inadvertently had his Derby claims advertised on Dante day, firstly by the Dante, conspicuous by his absence, aspiring to be substandard in the event, and secondly by Elkaayed, whom he beat in a maiden last year, looking a potential Group horse with an impressive win at Newmarket a few hours later. However, Telescope has lost his only race this year, his race against time, now ruled out of Epsom, calling for a stiff upper lip to hide the embarrassment that Britain can't win its own Derby

The shortcomings of the British defence, coupled with what looks a Ballydoyle B-Team, sheds some light on the gathering weight of support and momentum behind the overseas pair, Ocovango and Chopin, though neither should be so short as they are in the market. 

If Ocovango's recent scrambling win had been a listed race - which is about all the form amounts to - rather than the Prix Pour Moi, then two plus two wouldn't equal five, while Chopin, or Anbrechen Ansatz - Dawn Approach in German - as the volks back home evidently regard him, is indeed comparable to Dawn Approach in that he's head and shoulders above his direct contemporaries and unproven beyond a mile, but the pair are chalk and cheese, or colcannon and sauerkraut, in terms of substance and pedigree.

There are holes to be picked in all of the opposition, just as there's a Danticat-shaped hole in the argument that Dawn Approach has no supportive stamina on his dam's side, and the deeper you get the more it looks a simple case of his winning depending on whether or not he'll stay, which, for me, is 80/20 in his favour rather than the 50/50 coin toss the market says it is.

Conjecture rules in racing, but the facts are these: Dawn Approach is from a stallion line of Derby winners, he's out of a half-sister to a winning hurdler, he's unbeaten all along, he has got better with each step up in trip, his style and temperament is conducive to a mile and a half, and, most crucial of all, he's the best horse in the race, by far. Put it like that and it's not a hard riddle, and he's no even-money shot.

Hey diddle diddle, Danticat solved a riddle, and Dawn won the Derby in June.   

Recommendation:

Back Dawn Approach to win the Derby

Get open access to Timeform data for just 2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!

In-Play Hints: Strong pace to suit Tartan Gigha

Tartan Gigha is fancied to go close at Beverley.

A strong pace is possible in races at both Nottingham and Beverley today. Timeform assess the in-play angles...

Race: 14:30 Nottingham - 6f Handicap

Pace Forecast: Contested.

Specific Pace Hint: Point North is unlikely to have an easy time if adopting customary prominent position: The likelihood of an honest pace may tee things up for one coming from further back, with Dana's Present a possible beneficiary.

Individual Price Hint: Hamis Al Bin traded at 10% or less of BSP, 25% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP on 3 of its last 5 starts: Lord Buffhead traded at 10% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP on 2 of its last 5 starts.

Race: 19:05 Beverley - 1m2f Handicap

Pace Forecast: Contested.

Specific Pace Hint: Classic Punch is unlikely to get things its own way close up and could therefore prove vulnerable in the finish: The latecoming style of Tartan Gigha, could prove something of an advantage given the number of identifiable pace-pushers in the line-up.

Individual Price Hint: Tartan Gigha traded at 10% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP on 2 of its last 5 starts: Moccasin traded at 25% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP twice on 3 of its last 3 starts.

Get open access to Timeform data for just 2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!

Britain's Got Talent: Powerful singer stunning value to beat comedian

Alice Fredenham has an outstanding chance this evening

It's the second semi-final of Britain's Got Talent tonight and Mike Norman believes another vocal act will make it to the final by winning at a decent price this evening...

Last night pretty much went to plan. The favourites to win - Richard and Adam - did so, just like the crux of yesterday's preview alluded to.

I'm not talking specifically about myself selecting the operatic brothers to win - a 2.56/4 winner isn't exactly the tipping success of the year is it? - I'm talking more about how the favourites to win these semi-finals usually do so because of the way they are organised. A great act, put on last, with some mediocre acts preceding it for example.

And when that last act to appear on the night is amongst the favourites to win the whole competition AND is a vocal act performing opera/theatre, then you have a rock solid wager on your hands.

Not surprisingly, another vocal act also made it to the final a week on Saturday though it wasn't the one I originally expected it to be. Band of Voices were possibly disadvantaged by having to perform early but in all honesty I didn't rate their performance and I have no qualms about the better performer on the night - Arisxandra Libantino - going through.

Richard and Adam are 5.69/2 second favourites to win the competition behind strong 2.35/4 favourites Attraction who we'll see later in the week. Arisxandra Libantino is available to back at 24.023/1.

Tonight's second semi-final is a real puzzle to solve and could be one of those rare occasions where either the favourite doesn't win, or if the favourite does win then it won't be a vocal or dance act.

That's because young comedian Jack Carroll is the early favourite on the exchange in the Semi Final 2 Winner market, but I'm not totally convinced that he should be favourite.

In fact, I am convinced that second favourite Alice Fredenham could be an outstanding bet tonight.

Carroll (1.68/13 to win) was good but certainly not jaw-dropping during his audition and the fact is comedians have a terrible record in this competition. You have to be naturally funny, free-flowing, and really have an outstanding act to do well on Britian's Got Talent and Carroll has neither in my opinion. His act is scripted and doesn't flow for my liking and I believe we can get him beat tonight.

Fredenham on the other hand is exactly the type of act we've spoke about for the last few days - a vocal act who received fantastic reviews after her audition and someone who has surely been ear-marked to make the final.

She was rejected by the BBC's The Voice, but their loss is set to be BGT's gain. Simon Cowell described her voice as liquid gold after her audition, and I sense that she is the one, more than Carroll, who producers are desperate makes the final.

If that's the case then I believe she will get the late slot tonight, and if she does then she will take the world of beating. She is available to back at 3.55/2 right now on the exchange, and that looks an outstanding bet to me.

Watch out for Jack and Cormac, and Gabz Gardiner in the To Qualify market. Again, both are vocal acts who had more of the likeability factor than the X Factor (sorry, wrong show but you know what I mean) at their audition, but both had extremely catchy songs.

If Carroll has a poor comedy act tonight then one of the teenage singing acts could mount a challenge to progress to the final.

Recommended Bet

Back Alice Fredenham @ 3.55/2 or better

Ecuador v Germany: Weakened Germans are vulnerable

Felipe Caicedo has notched on his last three appearances

As Germany visit the sunny surroundings of Florida for this friendly match, Christian Crowther provides a preview and offers a few choice bets...

Ecuador v Germany, Wednesday 19:30, ESPN, Match Odds: Ecuador 5.49/2, Germany 1.794/5, The Draw 3.9n/a

Due to the Champions League final involvement of many of Germany's top stars, national coach Joachim Low has named an unfamiliar looking squad for this trip to Florida to play Ecuador.

The whole of Bayern Munich's treble-chasing contingent have been omitted in light of their DFB Pokal final date on Saturday. This experimental line-up will also be without Real Madrid pairing Mesut Ozil and Sami Khedira due to remaining fixture commitments at the Spanish giants.

Meanwhile, most of Borussia Dortmund's Wembley starters will miss this trip to the US, ruling out Mats Hummels, Marco Reus, Marcel Schmelzer, Mario Gotze and Ilkay Gundogan, though fringe players Sven Bender and Kevin Grosskreutz will be available for the second friendly against USA in Washington.

Given the untried nature of their opponents, one of the strongest Ecuadorian sides of recent years should smell European blood for a second such friendly in succession, after an impressive 3-2 victory away to Portugal in February.

Sat only second to Argentina in the hugely competitive CONMEBOL qualifying group for World Cup 2014 consisting of nine teams, this Ecuador side are unbeaten in their last nine games in competition and friendly football combined, winning the three in 2013.

Led by prolific talisman Christian Benitez and the likes of Manchester United's Antonio Valencia, this exciting Ecuador side have followed up that notable scalp in Portugal by stuffing El Salvador 5-0 in a friendly and Paraguay 4-1 in a qualifier.

If Germany had their full squad out then their heavy favouritism would be justified but opposing them here against a well-oiled and uber-confident Ecuador side looks the value bet.

Draw No Bet

As well as either laying the Germans or plumping for juicy odds on the Ecuador win, the cover of a Draw No Bet - meaning you get your stake back if the spoils are shared - appeals greatly when looking at this fixture. On such a long unbeaten streak as this, head coach Reinaldo Rueda will be desperate for his players to keep the momentum going.

To Score 

He may not have cut the dijon at Manchester City but 24-year-old Lokomotiv Moscow striker Felipe Caicedo has no problem delivering the goods on the international stage. 13 goals from just 38 caps - including five in the current qualifying campaign - for FIFA's tenth-best rated team in the world speaks for itself and he'll be chief danger man, searching for a fourth goal in as many appearances for La Tri in the sunshine state.

Best Bet: Back Ecuador to win (draw no bet) @ 3.613/5
Other Recommended Bet: Back Felipe Caicedo to score @ 4.67/2