Betting is life

понедельник, 1 апреля 2013 г.

Dubai World Cup Result: Kingdom rules the World

Graham Motion: Trainer of Animal Kingdom.

Red Cadeaux ran a huge race in second as Animal Kingdom stamped his class on the Dubai World Cup to give America victory in the world's richest race...

The 2011 Kentucky Derby hero was given a no-nonsense ride by Joel Rosario, who always had crack mare Royal Delta just in front of him as she set the early pace.

Making his move two and a half furlongs out, Animal Kingdom showed a very smart turn of foot to effectively put the race to bed.

From the back of the pack, however, Ed Dunlop's Red Cadeaux rattled home along the far rail under Gerald Mosse, but while he was closing all the way to the line the prize was never going to be lost for the Graham Motion-trained winner.

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Grand National 2013: A guide for the reluctant tipster

Grand National Switcher:

Seabass (centre) leads jumping the last in the 2012 National

The Grand National is the greatest spectacle in racing, says Keith Melrose, but it can make for the most stressful watch, too. As he gives the Timeform view, he also tries to deal with the dilemma that being a jumps fan in early-April presents.

If you're the only racing fan in your family or circle of friends, this time of year is one fraught with danger. The once-a-year punters are getting ready for their day. Very soon they will be in touch, and they will ask you expectantly: what is going to win the Grand National?

The annoyance of this is that the National is popularly regarded as just about the hardest race on the calendar to pick the winner of. Were you to ask a bookworm to sum up War And Peace in a sentence, say, or tell a wine enthusiast that you'd like advice on the best vines to plant in West Yorkshire, you'd rightly be laughed out of the room. However, we racing fans are expected to crack our toughest puzzle, to the point that a Timeform employee's professional reputation can be on the line if the appointed creature comes down before first Becher's...

Of course, we secretly like to play up the difficulty of the National. In reality, it's a high-end handicap chase in which the only specialist requirement is the ability to both jump and stay a little better than your average chaser. We're helped further by the fact that increasing numbers of those that line up on the day have previous course experience, which takes out much of the guesswork over which horses will be suited by the famous spruce fences.

You don't need to look far among this year's contenders to find horses that have already tackled the course. Among the favourites alone, On His Own, Seabass and Cappa Bleu all ran in the race last year. The last two named filled minor places, yet current market leader On His Own's race ended in more inglorious circumstances with him falling at second Becher's. The facts don't tell the full story, however, as On His Own had jumped extremely well up to then, just behind the leaders at the time, and was instantly earmarked by many for the 2013 renewal. Things have seemingly gone to plan in the meantime, his reappearance in the Boyne Hurdle deliberately delayed with the National in mind and his winning performance in that race pleasing to say the least. On His Own is generally hard to fault and there's a case to be made for him being shorter than his current 10.09/1. If you're getting a few on side in the National, On His Own definitely warrants being among them.

As mentioned above, Seabass and Cappa Bleu made it to the end last year (albeit in very different ways, as we'll come back to) so we don't have to speculate quite so much on their chances of a more fruitful second shot at the National. Seabass was prominent all the way under Katie Walsh, tying up only late in the day to leave the final, thrilling chapter between Neptune Collonges and Sunnyhillboy. Seabass is generally a tough and straightforward type, who jumped very well on the whole that day. Did he do just a little too much too soon? Possibly. But did he do so to the extent that you'd fancy him to win from a 5-lb higher mark this time? Probably not.

Watching Cappa Bleu in the 2012 National was much like watching State of Play in the 2009, 2010 or 2011 editions. Both carried the colours of William Rucker, were trained by Evan Williams and stayed on well to make the places under Paul Moloney; and each time those to back them might well have furrowed their brow at how much their fancy had been left to do. Moloney's habitual deliver-them-late style generally doesn't suit the demands of a Grand National, with the vast majority of those that take a hand in the finish right up with the pace by the time the field jump three out. Last year, Cappa Bleu was still eighth jumping the last, but passed stout stayers like Ballabriggs and Hello Bud on the run-in to make fourth.

In mitigation, Cappa Bleu is generally ridden that way, but if you wanted further evidence that it's a fine balancing act, look at his latest outing at Ascot. Racing from the same mark he'll carry at Aintree, Cappa Bleu travelled best of all in a modestly-run three-mile race, but with a slight error three out he conceded first run to Vino Griego, never really looking like clawing the deficit back but staying on pleasingly nonetheless to draw clear of the remainder, two and a half lengths behind the winner. Vino Griego, of course, has since finishing second in a Cheltenham Festival handicap, so this tale serves to advertise how well-treated Cappa Bleu could be as much as it is one of caution over his rider's patient approach.

If you want a masterclass in how to deliver a horse late, your normal go-to man would be Paul Carberry, whose ride on King John's Castle in the 2008 Grand National must rank among the best not to win the race in recent times. Carberry has a National win to his name (on Bobbyjo in 1999) and is one of the most sought-after bookings for any hopeful. His ride this year is uncertain, but it could Chicago Grey, Carberry's National ride last year who now finds himself top of Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for the 2013 renewal after success in a Grade 2 in Ireland last time. That improved performance has been put down to a breathing operation, but it was also the biggest move forward in a quietly-creeping campaign that would make even Carberry proud. A few runs in which Chicago Grey shaped as though better for the outing, punctuated with a promising showing in a Cheltenham handicap won by Monbeg Dude (who later won the Welsh National under an exemplary Carberry ride), were signs that he was in fair heart all along, yet he finds himself now 9 lb lower than in last year's National. Chicago Grey's jumping is something of a worry, though he can hardly be blamed for last year's departure (brought down fifth) and may have just about the best man aboard to get him round safely.

Finally we come to the most eye-catching of our selections, as he's currently available at 44.043/1 in the ante-post betting. Like a few already mentioned, he's trained in Ireland and ran in last year's National (as well as that season's Becher). However, what sets Rare Bob apart is that, despite his price, he's ahead of all but Chicago Grey on the weight-adjusted Timeform ratings at the time of writing.

Rare Bob's campaign so far has had a touch of the Chicago Greys about it, the overriding impression throughout 2012/3 being that he's building up to something. It's not difficult to guess what that something might be given he has been taken to a couple of the self-same races he ran in before last year's National, in which he was brought down at the fifth before himself bringing down none other than Chicago Grey.

On his previous visit to Aintree, Rare Bob struggled with bottomless conditions when coming home a well-beaten fifth in West End Rocker's Becher, but he jumped very well on the whole and was still in touch turning in before he dropped away. Stamina is unproven, though he's yet to race beyond 25 furlongs on better ground, and with man-of-the-moment Bryan Cooper likely to take the ride, Rare Bob is likely to be much shorter than current odds at some point between now and half past four on National day.

That's about it in terms of the analysis, but what about our original quandry? What should we be telling our loved ones to back in the Grand National? Covering a few of the more popular types, here's a handy guide:

The father- Your lugubrious old man/uncle etc. tends to get more perverse enjoyment from an unlucky loser than actual enjoyment from a never-in-doubt winner. The horse for him is clearly Cappa Bleu: watch him fly home after losing his pitch at second Canal Turn!

The mother/girlfriend- Apologies for the generalisation, but the image of this person, whatever their gender or relationship, should strike with most: they can jump a little when a horse on the TV screen falls; they sometimes ask why their horse "isn't winning" (has been held up); they often like greys. Chicago Grey for them, then, though you might want to explain in advance not to worry: that man Carberry knows precisely what he's doing.

The Uni mate- He'll send you a message on Facebook, precisely 364 days after his last correspondence, ribbing you again about that "nag" you gave him last year. You don't fancy this schtick yet again come April 2014, so have him back On His Own, or Seabass each-way.

The part-timer- This one can exchange pleasantries about 'Saturday' racing, and probably knows the rough outline of the market leaders' profiles. They might even have backed one of the favourites already, so throw them Rare Bob to add some piquancy to their ante-post portfolio.

You- This is probably what you're really here for. You've heard the cases made for all of the above, and if you just like the warm glow of satisfaction that comes with backing the National winner then feel free to stick all five in; but for a more conventional two-against-the-field approach, make it Cappa Bleu and Rare Bob, who simply look to be the best value at current prices.

Now, about those vines...

Recommendations:

Back Cappa Bleu @ 16.015/1 & Rare Bob @ 44.043/1 in the Grand National

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Irish Grand National: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Davy Russell rides the fancied Sweeney Tunes

Timeform look at all 30 runners in the Easter Monday feature, the Irish Grand National over three miles and five furlongs at Fairyhouse.

Junior jumped fluently when making all to regain winning thread in Rehearsal Chase on reappearance. Out of his depth over fences next 2 starts, but produced laboured effort back hurdling at Cheltenham.

You Must Know Me won his sole hurdles start and has quickly made up into a useful chaser, finding only the rejuvenated Dedigout too good in a novice at Naas last time. Jumping already looks a real asset.

Magnanimity put up creditable efforts when runner-up this season, beaten 3 lengths by Call The Police in minor event at Clonmel on latest. Showed up well for a long way in this last season, but stamina an issue.

Sweeney Tunes has always looked the type to make a better chaser than hurdler and has progressed well since switched to the larger obstacles, scoring easily in a Grade 2 at Naas on latest. Will stay beyond 3m.

Competitive Edge has got his act together over fences recently, following up his Leopardstown win from a 7 lb higher mark at Gowran last time. In good heart, but marked step up in trip looks a real concern.

Cootamundra is yet to strike over fences, but shown plenty of ability in this sphere, including when third to Savello at Leopardstown. Never once shaped as if wanting a test of stamina like this, though.

He'llberemembered is a useful hurdler who has won twice over fences this season, most recently in a 21f Leopardstown handicap. Not so good at Gowran just 6 days later and jumping is a worry in a big field like this.

Home Farm ran out a wide-margin winner of a maiden hurdle at Thurles (2m) and transferred that form to fences when beating White Star Line in maiden here on latest start. Should do better and bred to stay well.

Jacksonlady has done well since switched to fences this season, showing useful form to land an 17f handicap at Leopardstown on latest by 3 lengths from Rubert. Fit from Flat, but unproven beyond 2m.

Muirhead is a hold-up performer who had to work hard to land the odds in minor chase at Galway in September. Best effort since when fourth to Mount Benbulben at Thurles last time, but much more needed now.

Whodoyouthink is a better chaser than hurdler, winning minor event at Punchestown in May. Can be moody, however, and form has been very patchy this term. One to be wary of.

Rich Revival is very lightly raced for a 9-y-o but quickly making up for lost time over fences this season, making it 3 from 3 when landing the Leinster National at Naas on latest. May do better still.

Marasonnien was a Grade 1 winner as a novice hurdler but is yet to prove as effective over fences, third behind Home Farm in a maiden here on latest. Needs to improve, but couldn't be in better hands.

Away We Go showed himself better than ever when winning handicap hurdle here in February and yet to race over fences for this yard. Handicapper taken no chances, but by no means a forlorn hope.

Romanesco's jumping can be sketchy but he posted a useful effort when runner-up to Colbert Station in Paddy Power at Leopardstown in December and ran well when third to Same Difference at Cheltenham on latest.

Cross Appeal won the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown last season, but failed to fire since reappearance and hard to trust on present form.

Jadanli put up his best effort in some time when landing Thyestes Chase at Gowran in January with cheekpieces refitted. Not discredited either start since, but handicapper may well have his measure now.

Questions Answered is a better chaser than hurdler and has produced largely creditable efforts over fences this term, though wasn't quite at his best when only seventh at Leopardstown on latest.

Blazing Beacon is lightly raced for one his age but proved all ability still remains when winning veterans race at Wexford on return, jumping superbly. 8 lb rise should be enough to stop him following up.

Panther Claw is still progressing over fences and beat Saoirse Dun by 1 lengths in 16-runner event at Navan on latest, jumping better than last time. Should relish the emphasis being on stamina.

Start Me Up ran creditably when in frame in quite valuable handicap chases earlier this term, but form has rather tailed off since and jumping has long since been a cause for concern.

Carlingford Lough was a winner of 4 of his 6 starts over hurdles, showing useful level of form in the process. Yet to hit same heights over fences, but less exposed than some and could well be on a handy mark.

Imperial Shabra is a prominently-ridden type who is a fairly useful hurdler/chaser on his day. Has been badly out of sorts for a while now, though.

Liberty Counsel often mixes hurdling with chasing, gaining latest win at Kilbeggan in September. Out of sorts last 2 starts and has plenty on from this mark.

Rapidolyte de Ladalka has registered all 3 wins at Catterick, beating Makethe Mostofnow by length for latest success, outpaced back straight but staying on strongly despite looking awkward. Will stay long distances.

Carloswayback was the winner of Punchestown maiden chase last January and third in a Grade 2 the following month. Still went as if in need of the run at Leopardstown on latest, but doubtful stayer here.

Goonyella won twice in points prior to taking 3-finisher maiden hunter at Limerick and better form when third the next twice, losing nothing in defeat behind Salsify and Tammy's Hill at Leopardstown.

Our Victoria is a genuine mare who looked on good terms with herself when bagging minor events at Navan and Thurles in September/October. Given a break since failing to fire next 2 starts, but others preferred.

Paddy Pub landed a handicap hurdle last term before finishing fourth in this corresponding race. Looked to be working his way back to form this season, but then had no excuses in Leinster National on latest.

Quietly Fancied was runner-up in Munster National in October, and back to best when taking 11-runner handicap hurdle at Clonmel the following month. Inadequate trip last twice, so entitled to do better here.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Sweeney Tunes
2. Home Farm
3. Carlingford Lough

Timeform view: Sweeney Tunes is an upwardly mobile staying chaser who should relish the emphasis being firmly on stamina and looks the one to side with. Home Farm has the scope to go on improving in staying chases and merits plenty of respect, whilst Panthew Claw, Rich Revival, Goonyella and Carlingford Lough all have to enter calculations.

Lee Dixon: Fulham to nick close game against QPR at Craven Cottage

Harry Redknapp's QPR are in a position now where draws aren't going to be enough

Football Ambassador Lee Dixon can't see QPR getting anything out of the game at Craven Cottage against Martin Jol's Fulham...

Fulham had a great result at White Hart Lane last time out, something that would have given former Spurs boss Martin Jol immense pride and satisfaction. Fulham are now pretty much home and hosed for another season in the Premier League, and are now in a sort of limbo; not seriously challenging for a European place, but also not at all worried about relegation.

One team that certainly are worried about relegation however are Fulham's opponents on Monday night Queens Park Rangers. Harry Redknapp and his players are now at the stage where draws aren't really enough. The reverse against Aston Villa was a shocker, absolutely sickening for them. To lose a game to a relegation rival that you actually led against will takes some getting over. It's yet another example of what could have been, and the manager will be hoping the international break has given them time to get it out of their system.

The fact that Fulham now have nothing to play for is a plus for QPR. The last thing they want to be doing is playing a top team at the moment, and with respect to Fulham, Redknapp will have this down as a winnable game. That said, it's a derby and so Jol's charges should be fired up to win it for the supporters. It's not a game QPR will have all their own way, and I don't think Martin Jol is the sort of manager to allow his players to switch off at this stage of the season.

For all the glimmers of hope that QPR have shown from time to time since Redknapp took over, I actually think they've been bang average at best for the entire season. They don't score enough goals, they can't avoid conceding them (especially away from home) and that is a recipe for relegation, whichever way you slice it.

Although they beat Fulham at Loftus Road in December, I don't see that having much of a bearing on this Monday's game, and Fulham are simply a better side - they went the length of March unbeaten and haven't lost since a narrow defeat to Man United at the end of February so must be favourites to win this one.

I certainly don't see there being many goals in this game, neither team are particularly free-scoring, and QPR have only managed a paltry 26 goals all season. It's going to be won by the odd goal, and the way things are at the moment it's much more likely to be Fulham that score it. Under 2.5 Goals looks a good bet at 1.9620/21, and Fulham to win 1-0 in the Correct Score market is an attractive price at 8.27/1. Back both.

Recommended Bets

Back under 2.5 Goals at 1.9620/21
Back Fulham to win 1-0 in the Correct Score market at 8.27/1

Michael Cox's Tactical View

I agree with Lee on the lack of goals here, although [1.96] doesn't take my fancy in the Under 2.5 goals market. I'm going to be slightly brave, and back QPR to keep a clean sheet. They've kept five in 17 under Harry Redknapp - a decent if unspectacular record - and I think they're most vulnerable to pace. You don't get much of that from Dimitar Berbatov and Bryan Ruiz - in fact, Fulham have been caught offside less than any other Premier League side this season, because those two don't look to penetrate the opposition defence. I'm not sure whether Fulham will still be motivated to win at this stage of the season, whereas QPR are fighting for their lives. A QPR clean sheet at 5.2 looks good to me.

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Fulham have only failed to score at home twice this season, on both occasions that was against top opposition (Man Utd & Spurs). As Lee says, QPR have only scored 26 goals this season (the lowest in the league), but they have shown some signs of fight recently with seven of those coming in their last three games.

While Fulham’s last five games have only produced seven goals, I can see why Lee is favouring a low scoring game. However, I would be wary that QPR games over the same period have produced 19 goals and in this fixture last season, Fulham hit QPR for six.

Fulham don’t have a great deal left to play for but with local pride at stake I think they will have too much for QPR on Monday night. Fulham are currently priced at 2.06 to win this, that price in my book is simply wrong. I think the market has been distorted simply because this is a MUST win game for QPR, I had Fulham around the 1.75 mark. For that reason alone, I will be backing Fulham to win in the Match Odds @ 2.06.

The Punter's In-Play Blog: Can Marcel keep calm enough to collect?

Marcel Siem – can he hold on in Morocco?

Marcel Siem had the Trophee Hassan II title in his grasp but it's a very much tighter affair in Texas, where one of the BB team is sweating on a bumper pay-out with Ben Crane. Read Steve's final in-running thoughts on the week here...

12:00 - March 31, 2013
Marcel Siem takes a four-shot lead into the final round of the Trophee Hassan II and he really ought to convert but there have been signs all week that the likable German still has a fiery temper simmering just under the surface.

He made a right pig's ear of his penultimate hole yesterday, needing a 15 foot putt to make bogey and he looked close to exploding! Then on the final hole he let out an anguished cry after his approach shot and I couldn't really see why. It wasn't a great shot but it was safely on the green and it was certainly not bad enough to evoke his reaction.

He's an emotional chap is Marcel and his biggest job today will be keeping those emotions in check. If he does, he'll win, but he won't be carrying any of my cash at almost 1.51/2.

If he is to implode, we surely can't look any further down than Craig Lee in 6th, who trails Siem by seven, even though last year, Jamie Donaldson showed low scores are out there, with a final round 61, which saw him climb 40 places up into a tie for third.

My in-play wager, Bernd Wiesberger, was pretty disappointing yesterday but he finished with a run of birdies and on -9, six behind Siem, he's not quite completely out of it.

One man that might struggle today is Mikko Ilonen. He was all over the shop at times yesterday and the word on Twitter this morning is that he's been up and down all night with food poisoning! I'm not a massive fan of two-ball betting, or backing odds-on shots but I've had a small wager on Pablo Larrazabal to be beat the Finn at 1.9620/21.

Over at the Shell Houston Open, we can't discount the power of prayer on Easter Sunday! With Stewart Cink, a devout Christian, tied at the top with Bill Haas, who studied religion as his major, on -11 and with Ben Crane, another religious man, in the group of four one back, the good lord might just get a mention when the trophy gets given out later.

This event doesn't get any easier does it! There are nine players, including Louis Oosthuizen, Keegan Bradley and Lee Westwood, just two behind Cink and Haas and it looks an impossible puzzle to solve. It's going to be fun to watch though and there might be a few opportunities in-running, especially given the tough finish here, but I'm leaving it alone for now.

If I were to pick out one for a fun bet, then it would have to be Crane at around 16.015/1. Joe Dyer's each way tip from the start, at a very juicy 176.0n/a, knows how to get the job done and if he were to hold his nerve whilst all around him failed to do so, I wouldn't be at all surprised. Good luck Joe!

11:10 - March 30, 2013
I can't for one second claim that halfway leader Marcel Siem was ever on my radar for the Trophee Hassan II, but I did consider carefully the chances of David Horsey and Mikko Ilonen, currently tied for second and three shots behind Siem, and Pablo Larrazabal, who sits in fourth and four off the lead. In fact, he was top of my list on Monday morning!

All three had solid claims but I felt, wrongly as its transpired, that all three were on the short side. I thought before the off that the event would suit certain players and that course form would hold-up well and that there were half a dozen or more at what I thought were short enough prices with really strong claims.

In hindsight, maybe I need to reassess how I view the prices in quirky low-grade affairs but I find it very hard to take fairly low prices about players that win so infrequently. What's really frustrating is not that I left out the three mentioned above, but that I didn't leave ALL of the short-priced fancies out. I knew I was taking too short a price about Gregory Bourdy but I still did it! And why did I back him and not Larrazabal? Oh well, I mustn't dwell on it all too long, surely insanity is the only outcome!

And just to drive me closer, a player that I'm a huge admirer of, and who I've backed plenty of times already this year, Bernd Wiesberger, has found form at last and I'm not on from the get-go!

As stated, he hadn't shown anything this year yet and I really didn't think this would be his ideal track, so I've no regrets at all about leaving him out this week but I'm with him now.

All aspects of Wiesberger's game are in great order this week, bar putting. After two rounds, he ranks 11th for Driving Distance, 9th for Driving Accuracy, 5th for Greens In Regulation and 4th for Scrambling and if a few more putts had found the cup, he'd be far closer to the lead than six adrift.

It's a risk to expect him to suddenly start finding form with the flat-stick but it's one I'm prepared to take. It's taken years for those above him on the leaderboard to win their two titles apiece, Bernd has claimed both of his in the last twelve months and if he can bridge the gap today, he's the one with more scope and I think, more balls when it comes down to the back-nine fight tomorrow.

Over at the Shell Houston Open, Rory McIlroy and my US Masters fancy, Phil Mickelson, have both made the cut, but only just.

The penny seems to have dropped at last with Rory and he's decided to add next week's Texas Open to his schedule. Whist it's the right thing to do to get more tournament play under his belt ahead of the year's first major, adding the Texas Open is a strange one. Surely he'd have been better playing Bay Hill last week instead? The wind can play havoc at the Texas Open and the course is nothing like Augusta. It looks like a bit of a panic move to me and unless he finds form and soon, he won't be pitching up at Augusta with any confidence.

As for Lefty, his game doesn't look to be that bad and if he'd managed to keep out of the water on the 5th hole over the first two days (he's made a double-bogey six there twice) he'd be in with every chance of winning this week.

Monday qualifier, Steve Wheatcroft, leads on -10, by one over big-hitting maiden Jason Kokrak, and one-time PGA Tour winner, D.A Points, with a gap of two back to Brian Davis and Stewart Cink on -7. The event looks incredibly open and given that the last two winners here have come from four and five strokes back at halfway, the leading group look vulnerable.

I haven't given up on pre-event pick Boo Weekley, on -5, and I've now added Scott Stallings, on the same score, at 60.059/1, but other than that, I'm going to wait and see what today brings. It looks tricky to say the least!

12:10 - March 29, 2013
It's one of those weeks when finding an opportune time to update the blog isn't easy, unless I do it in the middle of the night! From first thing in the morning to last thing at night, either or both events are in-play.

At the Trophee Hassan II, I had a poor first day and things haven't improved this morning. The majority of my pre-event picks got a break with the draw when the troublesome morning winds dropped considerably in the afternoon but none of them took advantage.

Those with an early tee time yesterday shot an average of 1.72 shots more than the afternoon starters, which makes David Horsey, Simon Wakefield and Paul Krishnamurty's Find Me A 100 Winner pick, Graeme Storm's, four under-par 68's look very impressive.

All three are trading considerably bigger now than they were yesterday afternoon, when it looked as though they'd set stern target, but when the wind dropped, Germany's Marcel Siem stepped up and shot 64, courtesy of two holed bunker shots!

We're getting to the end of the morning session now and Siem has already traded as short as 1.865/6. He's currently on -12, leading by five and firmly in command.

I've had a tiny bet on Wakefield, but other than that, I'm playing a waiting game for now.

Over in the states, I had an extremely frustrating first day at the Shell Houston Open, and all thanks to Phil Mickelson and the PGA Tour website's shot-tracker. Prior to the off, I'd back Lefty to win this week and also to win the US Masters and the plan yesterday was to follow the play closely and to try maximise my position on him at the US Masters.

Everything was going to plan, he was playing well enough and was four under-par with just five to play. Having backed him before the off at 18.5n/a in this event and having traded him in-and-out in the US Masters to get him onside at a juicy price, when shot-tracker showed him in the left rough on the 5th hole (his 14th of the round), up I got to stretch my legs make a cup of tea.

I sat back down again, happy enough with the way it was all going, only to see, to my complete dismay, that shot-tracker had changed from him being in the rough, to being in the water. And what a difference it made! All of a sudden, he'd gone from a single-figure price to win this event to above 20.019/1 and my US Masters position wasn't looking so hot either.

He made double-bogey on the 5th and compounded the error by bogeying the 6th and 9th too, and he now trails overnight leader, D.A Points by eight stokes. Not ideal.

With all the pre-event market leaders struggling yesterday, including Rory McIlroy, who shot +1, the event is extremely open and I'm going to see what today brings. The morning starters yesterday had a big advantage, shooting over 1.5 shots better than the afternoon starters and Rory could be one to keep an eye on when he kicks off round two shortly at 12.50. I'm convinced he's not playing enough competitive golf and having knocked the rust off again yesterday he could make a big move, both in this event and in the US Masters market.

With regards to the US Masters, I still have Phil onside. He lost his way yesterday but he sounds confident enough and although his age is a big worry now, his record at Augusta is so strong that I simply have to have him onside there.

I did back Bill Hass last night too but I layed the bet back in the end. He has the right profile to win, he's the right age, he's had the right number of previous appearances and he's in form but I just can't imagine he has enough length or that he putts well enough to win there.

And I've also now backed Matt Kuchar at 42.041/1. I suspect he'll be in the line-up at next week's Texas Open, which I don't think will be an ideal prep but he's in fair form this year and he contended twelve months ago.

And finally, I thought I'd had a bad day yesterday but it pales into insignificance when compared to poor Czech pro, Jakub Svoboda's day. He withdrew from the Trophee Hassan II after playing just six holes in 21 over-par! Ouch!

Trophee Hassan II Pre-Event Selections:
Gregory Bourdy @ 40.039/1
Alvaro Quiros @ 60.059/1
Michael Hoey @ 76.0n/a (Fixed Odds Market)
Emiliano Grillo @ 130.0129/1
Freddie Andersson-Hed @ 130.0129/1
Rhys Davies @ 160.0159/1
John Parry @ 240.0239/1
James Morrison @ 290.0289/1

In-Play Bets
Simon Wakefield @ 42.041/1
Bernd Wiesberger @ 20.019/1

Pablo Larrazabal to win his Sunday two-ball @ 1.9620/21

Shell Houston Pre-Event Open Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ 18.5n/a
Graham DeLaet @ 120.0119/1
Ryan Palmer @ 130.0129/1
Boo Weekley @ 160.0159/1

In-Play Bet
Scott Stallings @ 60.059/1

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