Against All Odds: Goals in the Paulista

Brazilian football fans are a passionate bunch

Paul Robinson is taking us to Brazil today as Palmeiras take on Sorocaba and he thinks that viewers on Betfair Live Video at 21:30 could be in for a treat.

Palmeiras are just inside the crucial top eight of the Paulista A1 standings and they could climb as high as fifth if they win their game in hand tonight. Obviously it's still relatively early days but the format of the competition means that being amongst the pace setters from the off is pretty vital.

Gilson Kleina's side have played five so far, winning two, drawing two and losing one. After opening up with a 0-0 draw with Bragantino, their next four games have all gone over 2.5 goals, with three going over 3.5, two going over 4.5 and the 3-3 draw last time out at XV de Piracicaba going over 5.5.  

Atletico Sorocaba are 14th in the table with five points from their opening five fixtures so if they want to make the final series then they could do with putting a couple of wins together. After going without a victory in their opening four - two draws and two defeats - they hammered Unio Barbarense 4-0 on Sunday.

As far as the goals go, like their opponents, they've also had one 0-0 thus far, but in their other four the goals have flowed. Paulo Roberto's men lost 2-1 to both So Caetano and So Paulo, drew 2-2 with Botafogo SP and put four past Unio Barbarense as mentioned above. 

The statistics tell us that there should be goals in this game and while we need a bit of luck to get four or more, under 3.5 is just too short at 1.618/13 in my eyes, and that's why I'm making it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 3.5 goals in Palmeiras v Sorocaba @ 1.618/13

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 37 pts
Returned: 34.33 pts
P/L - 2.67 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)