SPOTY Betting: Farah and Ennis to push Wiggo all the way

Jess Ennis proudly shows off her Olympic gold medal

Mike Norman explains why Bradley Wiggins will be extremely hard to beat at the SPOTY awards on Sunday, but in Mo Farah and Jessica Ennis you have two good price alternatives that should be in the top three...

Fifteen years ago, a Canadian-born tennis player won the BBC Sports Personality of the Year award despite achieving little of note that year. Greg Rusedski's career highlight was losing a Grand Slam final, yet that was enough to secure him the SPOTY title.

This weekend, a true world class British tennis player - who has just had the greatest year of his life courtesy of winning US Open and Olympic titles - is not even fancied to make the first three when the public cast their vote.

But that's not a slant on Andy Murray's achievements, far from it, it's more to do with the fact that 2012 has been a stellar year for British sport, with countless spine-tingling moments being etched into the viewing public's memories.

And one thing is certain this weekend. Unlike Rusedski, whoever is crowned the 2012 Sports Personality of the Year on Sunday night will be the most deserving recipient of this 58-year-old award in a long time.

So who will win the 2012 award? Or perhaps an easier starting point is to tell you who won't win.

Nicola Adams - available to back at the maximum price of 1000.0n/a - has a knock-out personality and will always be in the history books for being the first woman to win an Olympic boxing gold medal. But this is one bout too far for the likeable 30-year-old.

Katherine Grainger (1000.0n/a) finally put previous Olympic disappointments behind her when rowing to gold in the double sculls with Anna Watkins. But this competition is tough, a bit like being up the creek without a paddle to be honest.

Sarah Storey (1000.0n/a) was a successful swimmer before turning to cycling to win four gold medals at this year's Paralympics. Her achievements can't be knocked, but if Baroness Grey-Thompson couldn't win SPOTY in a 'weaker' year, then Storey has no chance.

Ben Ainslie (500.0499/1) became the greatest sailor of all time when winning his fourth consecutive Olympic gold, but apart from declaring, "You don't want to make me angry", in pursuit of his latest triumph, Ainslie's personality doesn't appeal much.

Sir Chris Hoy (400.0399/1) won this in 2008 and had another successful Olympics this year, overhauling Steve Redgrave as Britain's most successful Olympian. But Hoy has had his moment and is likely to be lapped in a voting battle with another cycling star.

Rory McIlroy (240.0239/1) has had a great 2012 in collecting another Major championship, winning the money list on either side of the pond, and becoming the number one golfer in the world. But Luke Donald had a similar profile last year and didn't finish in the SPOTY top three.

Ellie Simmonds (150.0149/1) and David Weir (95.094/1) are two more Paralympians who deserve the highest recognition for their achievements this year. Of the two, the Weirwolf is the one who is likely to poll the most votes after his success on the track and road, and I'm sure he will be popular in the Top Three market at 8.415/2, but in the grand scheme of things, the four above him in the Winner market are likely to fight out this year's title.

True, it doesn't take a brave judge to rule out eight contenders all priced at 95.094/1 and higher, but the fact is the four contenders discussed below are the only four in with a chance of winning this year's SPOTY. The only thing left for us to decide is in which order they'll finish, so here goes.

Bradley Wiggins (1.321/3) undoubtedly deserves to be favourite but whether he should be as short as he is questionable. Certainly those who have backed the Tour de France and Olympic Time Trial winner at double figures have no need to wait for the outcome, a lay bet is highly recommended. And if you're not on Wiggins already, then don't bother backing him now as there's a much safer bet at slightly better odds.

Mo Farah (8.615/2) to finish in the Top Three is one of the best 1.422/5 shots I've seen in a long while. I agree entirely with what the Betfair Contrarian says (so no need for me to add any more), and whilst I don't share the same confidence that Farah will win, he'll easy poll enough votes to push Wiggins all the way.

Few would begrudge Wiggo victory on Sunday night however. To be the first Britain ever to win the Tour de France was some achievement, yet to come out and sprint through the streets of London a week later and demolish the Time Trial field was equally impressive. His personality might not be to everyone's liking, but he says it as it is with a glint in his eye, and most voters like that.

Farah on the other hand has an infectious personality, and to have been part of that sensational Saturday night in the Olympic Stadium will mean he will live long in the memory of the British sporting public.

And the same can be said of London Olympics poster girl Jessica Ennis (12.5n/a).

Ennis delivered a truly professional performance under extreme pressue to win Heptaphlon gold, roared on by a home nation she sparked a golden hour for British athletics by winning the 800m when she didn't need to. Greg Rutherford followed suit, and then it was Farah's stage, but without Ennis doing her bit, that night could have turned out oh so differently.

Ennis is 1.674/6 to finish in the top three, and as much as I've tried to envisage otherwise, I can't see her not being in it. In fact, expect Wiggins, Farah and Ennis to finish in that order.

We've already discussed Murray's (22.021/1) achievements, and in any other year he would walk away with Sunday's SPOTY award. But this year has been no ordinary one. The London Olympics united the whole of Britain, and it was thanks to Olympic-regarded sports like cycling and athletics, and not tennis, that we look back on a great three weeks of sport.

What Murray later did at Flushing Meadows was sensational and deserves huge recognition, but four doesn't go into three, and out of Sunday's 'big four' I feel the Scot will be the one to miss out. It will be some night though.

Recommended Bets

Back Mo Farah to finish Top Three @ 1.422/5
Dutch Farah and Ennis @ 5.14/1 to win SPOTY