India v England: Back England to win as Indian changes make no difference at all

India a banking on Ravindra Jadeja to fill a hole in their middle order, but is he up to the task?

India have made three changes to their squad for the final Test, which they need to win the square the series. It may not make much difference, though, as Richard O'Hagan explains.

The calls for changes to the Indian squad were loud enough even before the Kolkata Test started and after England's comfortable win yesterday the selectors have moved quickly to try to stem some of the criticism, announcing three changes to their squad within a day of that defeat. They are not changes which are likely to please many, though, and they are not likely to change India's chances of victory in Nagpur that much, either.

From the Kolkata squad Zaheer Khan, Yuvraj Singh and Harbhajan Singh lose their places. In their place come the uncapped Parvinder Awana and Ravindra Jadeja, and two cap wonder Piyush Chawla. For Zaheer, it is the first time he has been dropped since returning to the side in 2006. For all of them, it could be the end of their Test careers, so underwhelming have their performances been.

The difference that this makes to India's chance of success is likely to be minimal. With the team likely to play three spinners in Nagpur on Thursday it would be extremely brave to have a new cap as their only quick bowler, even is this does mean that the erratic Ishant Sharma is the choice.

The recall of Chawla is the most interesting. Once touted as the next great Indian spin bowler, he has been dropped after each of his Test appearances to date, has not played at that level since 2008 and has an uninspiring average of 45.66. Leg spin is, of course, something England have had plenty of trouble with in the past and he offers a variation to the off spin of Ravichandaran Ashwin and the left armer Pragyan Ohja, but his recall is more indicative of how bare the Indian cupboard is than anything else.

Jadeja was always likely to feature in this series after making two triple hundreds this season and has played over 50 one day games, but his selection ahead of the likes of Manoj Tiwary (similarly uncapped but with a better record in the one day game) suggests that India also hope to utilise his left arm spin at some point. The problem here is that they felt the same about Yuvraj and he ended up bowling only 13 overs in three Tests.

If anything, India have weakened their side by these changes, particularly when you consider that in playing Chawla they would be giving Graeme Swann an extra left hander to bowl at. Two debutants - one of whom was dropped from the one day squad earlier this year for failing to perform - and someone who has already tried and failed twice at Test level do not inspire confidence.

The ground in Nagpur has hosted only three Test matches and in each of them a large first innings score has been crucial, as the side ahead on first innings has always won. In the most recent of those, two years ago, India encountered little resistance from New Zealand in winning by an innings. That victory was built around a big hundred from Rahul Dravid, with five others chipping in half centuries. That - and Hashim Amla's 253 there earlier that year - suggests that there are runs to be had for batsmen who apply themselves. That means that you should look to the likes of Cheteshwar Pujara, Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott to post big scores. Pujara is currently 4.77/2 to be India's leading first innings scorer, whilst Trott is 5.04/1 in England's equivalent market.

All things considered, therefore, you would have to look at backing an England win, especially as the odds are a relatively generous 3.3512/5. Given that two of the three games in Nagpur have been victories by an innings, a further finish on the morning of the fifth day looks a good bet at 6.05/1.

As this is the last game of the series, why not have a bet on the top series wicket taker? Swann 3.052/1 needs two more wickets to overtake Ohja 2.1211/10 for that particular title, and could well have one more innings to do it in. And if you are backing England for the win, don't forget to back them for a 3-1 series win at 2.89/5 at the same time.

Recommended Bet

Back Cheteshwar Pujara at 4.77/2 to be India's top first innings run scorer.