Newcastle United: Can a comfort zone lead to the drop zone?

Much for Pardew to ponder during Newcastle's fallow period

Romilly Evans wonders if complacency has set in at Newcastle after the long contracts given to the team's management

Fear can be a great motivator. It can dominate your thoughts and chase you out of bed in the morning with the desire to do better and change your circumstances. Take such fear away, though, and you might just afford yourself a long lie-in.

Now I'm not accusing Newcastle boss, Alan Pardew, of falling asleep on the job. But it is an unavoidable truth that his team have endured a seismic shift in form ever since he penned an eight-year contract on Tyneside at the start of the season.

Since then, their performance has dropped from Champions League level to that of demotion candidates: four wins, five draws, eight losses. Another weekend setback at the feet of Man City made it six defeats in their last seven Premier League outings. Newcastle's position on the league ladder has accordingly slipped to the lower rungs, where they perch precariously only two points above the relegation places.

In short, it's time for Pardew and his backroom staff to wake up. Lest their collective comfort zone lead to the drop zone. Proven coaches like John Carver, Steve Stone and Andy Woodham were also given similar contract extensions alongside Pards and you can understand why.

After all, Mike Ashley and his managing director, Derek Llambias, were only trying to follow the blueprint of clubs which have enjoyed sustained success in the top flight. Sir Alex Ferguson at Man United; Arsene Wenger at Arsenal; David Moyes at Everton; even Tony Pulis at Stoke City. These men have all translated the stability of a safe seat into prolific achievement, relative to their respective club budgets. Following seven different managers in five years, small wonder Newcastle decided to follow suit.

However, a similar platform has yet to create a marauding Toon Army. So can the security of a long-term bond also lead to complacency? Pardew's deal was certainly a milestone at this level - in recognition of a landmark 2011/12 season, coupled to some astute signings (Demba Ba, Papiss Cisse and Yohan Cabaye).

It must've made Pards all warm and fuzzy - especially after his abrupt sackings at Reading, West Ham, Charlton and Southampton. He even became the first Englishman to be voted Manager of the Year by both the Premier League and the League Managers' Association. Was the 51-year-old starting to believe his own hype?

Well, you wouldn't know it to listen to him. "We're in a dogfight now," Pardew admitted.

"And we deserve to be here, as it hasn't been good enough. We have to improve and we will."

Such confession is good for the soul. And the Betfair market clearly reckons that these sins will not be repeated, making the Magpies a massive 10.5n/a to go down this term. Their upcoming clash with fellow strugglers QPR will certainly lay down another marker in a tight league - for all their travails, Newcastle are still just 10 points off fourth.

Pardew's humility is refreshing. He definitely has the fear back. But he really needs the return of some key players. The influential Cabaye and Cheick Tiot have only started three games together in the Premier League this season, while Tim Krul and Hatem Ben Arfa have also been sidelined with injury. Throw in Cisse's lack of goals and Ba's astronomic wage demands and it's easy to define a more likely cause for their combined plight.

However, with his injury list receding and Ba still scoring, Pardew may soon have his first-choice XI back on the pitch. Even their Saturday reversal to City, although it came at home, did demonstrate some signs of recovery. They rivalled the champions for possession (55%), shots on goal (17-16) and even shots on target (8-10). Considering Roberto Mancini deemed the match one of City's finer efforts this year, there are at least some cold comforts for Newcastle fans to cling to this winter.

Pardew's critics are already pointing to the fact that Norwich are faring far better in the league on a lesser budget. If only Newcastle had a manager like Chris Hughton, they counter. Oh right, they did. But while Ashley's treatment of Hughton was unfair, he didn't replace him with an obsequious flatterer. Instead there is reason and intent behind Pardew's words.

The Ancient Greeks had it right. The sword of Damocles hangs over all in positions of great responsibility, suspended by a single horse's hair. Whether they have an eight-year contract or not, the fear always remains. And it is that very same fear which should ensure Pardew and his team ward off imminent disaster from Tyneside.