Alfred Dunhill Championship Stats: Charl the man but watch out for Otto

Hennie Otto loves Leopard Creek CC

Mike Norman looks at this week's Alfred Dunhill Championsnip using a few statistics, and he believes tournament favourite Charl Schwartzel is the man to beat, if he isn't too tired that is...

Commencing tomorrow morning, the Alfred Dunhill Championship is the first tournament of the 2013 European Tour season. And before you all start wondering if you've been in some time trap for a month or so, well no you haven't, December has seen the start of a new golf season for quite some years now.

I wrote a few weeks ago about an unwritten 'golden rule' of golf betting; when a tournament is staged in South Africa, back a South African. So up stepped Henrik Stenson to win the SA Open Championship to leave egg well and truly running down my face.

But we're not going to be rocked by one set-back, far from it. Stats don't lie, and the fact is eight of the last nine tournaments (and 10 of the last 12) to be staged in the Rainbow Nation have been won by a South African born player.

And the Alfred Dunhill Championship - staged at the stunning Leopard Creek CC for the ninth successive year - is another tournament stacked with stats pointing towards a home victory this week.

The Stats

- Four of the eight previous renewals at Leopard Creek have been won by a South African golfer, and on the four occasions that one didn't win, a South African finished second or in a tie for second.

- No fewer than 34 South Africans have recorded a Top 10 Finish in those eight renewals at Leopard Creek.

- In 2005 a total of six South African golfers finished in the top four (a number of players were tied for fourth). That year also saw eight home based players record a top-10 finish.

- This week's favourite Charl Schwartzel has a phenomenal record at Leopard Creek. He has finished in the top two on no less than five occasions, including a win in 2004 as a relatively unknown 20-year-old. Last week Schwartzel beat a strong field at the Thailand Golf Championship by a staggering 11 shots.

Schwartzel is available to back at 5.39/2 to win this week

- Outsider Hennie Otto is another home player that has a liking for Leopard Creek. He has finished 15th, seventh, ninth, and sixth in four of his most recent visits and only last year won the SA Open Championship in his homeland. What's more, Otto has won and finished second twice around here in tournaments hosted by the Sunshine Tour.

Otto can be backed at 60.059/1 to be the champion come Sunday

- The first six players listed in this week's Winner market all hail from South Africa. They are; Schwartzel 5.39/2, Louis Oosthuizen 7.613/2, George Coetzee 16.015/1, Branden Grace 19.5n/a, Thomas Aiken 32.031/1, and Jaco Van Zyl 34.033/1

- The next player listed in the Winner market is England's Robert Rock (36.035/1) and he regularly plays well at this time of the year. In fact the only man in golf not to where a cap has finished second, fourth, and eighth in this very tournament in three of the last four years.

In conclusion, last week's runaway winner Schwartzel looks the man to beat. He openly admits his love for this venue, and with second favourite Oosthuizen having a dreadful record at Leopard Creek (five missed cuts on the spin), the 2011 Masters champion should go well.

The one niggling doubt however is Schwartzel's admission that he is physically very tired after a long year, and that if it wasn't for Leopard Creek being the venue this week, he would have pulled out. Ignore this, and Schwartzel has an outstanding chance.

Of the rest, the odds on offer for Otto and Rock are more than fair given their respective records at this time of the year and on this couse, but I will cover them both in the Top Five Finish market as opposed to backing them outright.

Recommended Bets

Back Charl Schwartzel in Winner market @ 5.39/2
Back Hennie Otto in Top Five Finish market @ 13.012/1
Back Robert Rock in Top Five Finish market @ 8.615/2