Against All Odds: Bastia at home = Goals

Even Joey Barton can't understand why unders is odds-on

Bastia host Marseille in Ligue One this evening and despite all seven of their home games going over 2.5 goals, Paul Robinson is perplexed to find that it's under 2.5 that is odds-on.

The less said about yesterday the better...

Bastia earned promotion to the top flight after storming to the Ligue Two title last year. Frdric Hantz's side have made a decent start to staying there as 19 points from 16 fixtures has them berthed in mid-table. It's a very tight division though and they are actually just two points off the relegation zone, so picking up points, especially at home, is vital at this stage.

Les Bleus may have drawn their last two matches 0-0, but they were both away from home and it's a different story at Stade Armand Cesari. Seven out of seven have gone over 2.5, with the scorelines in full reading: 2-1, 0-3, 0-4, 3-2, 3-1, 2-3 and 2-1. That shows us that they are yet to keep a clean sheet and have failed to score themselves just twice.

Marseille's bright start to the season has tailed off somewhat in recent weeks and they've slipped to third after winning just three of their last 10. lie Baup's men are now five points adrift of Lyon at the top so they need to start getting regular wins again if they want to challenge for the title.

As far as the goals go, their last three have all had three or more, and in their last match away from Stade Vlodrome, they beat Brest 2-1. L'OM's games have been averaging 2.44 each time so that coupled with Bastia's 3.38 average, it would appear that we could be in for a high scoring affair.

Bastia's home stats are just too significant to ignore, so with under 2.5 goals trading around the 1.8810/11 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Bastia v Marseille @ 1.8810/11

2012 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 285 pts
Returned: 294.95 pts
P/L + 9.95 pts