Lee Dixon: Premier League weekend to start with a humdinger

Jack Wilshere should line up in a strong Arsenal midfield

The north London derby looks primed for goals at both ends as these two wounded giants duel at The Emirates, says Lee Dixon

The north London derby is always a highly charged fixture but there's an extra frisson to Saturday lunchtime's match following the indifferent starts Arsenal and Tottenham have made to the season. 

Neither side were considered likely title contenders but, with 11 games gone, fourth place is just about the limit of either teams' ambitions. And defeat on Saturday would leave even that modest goal looking pretty unlikely. 

The Gunners, once backed at 8.27/1 to win the Premier League this season, are so far off the top they cannot win the title now. Encouragement comes in the shape ofJack Wilshere, who has been missed but now forms part of a strong midfield with Mikel Arteta and Santi Carzola. His return is - clich alert - like a new signing to the Gunners.

But when you take a long look at the squad there are weaknesses. The defence, so strong at the start of the season, has sprung a leak, while there is no regular goalscorer to fall back on. Oliver Giroud could be that man though he hasn't convinced yet, and while I'm sure the defence will come good, it's not going to happen overnight. 

Spurs arrive on the back of a poor run of form. Four straight wins raised hopes in N17, but that winning run was brought to an end by Chelsea and while Southampton were beaten after that, losses to Wigan and Manchester City have seen them fall off the pace and occasional boos to ring down from the stands.  

All good managers pride themselves on consistency and the current poor form will be hurting both Arsene Wenger and Villas Boas. 

Neither of these great rivals struggle for goals but clean sheets have been tough to find and this match is set to be an end-to-end humdinger as the following Opta stat underlines - there have been 23 goals scored in the last four Premier League games between Spurs and Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium and nine of the last 10 meetings in all competitions have seen at least three goals scored.
 
The markets have taken that into account and rather than back both teams to score at a skinny 1.51/2 or over 2.5 at 1.645/8 I'd rather get stuck into some correct scores at massive prices. A 2-2 draw coupled with 3-2 wins for either team will result in big payouts and, as last week's 26.025/1 winner shows, you should never be afraid to back at big prices!

And while we're talking big prices, I'm happy to chance a couple of quid on Steven Caulker to score. The central defender netted for England in the week and at Manchester City last weekend. He's clearly a weapon at set pieces and Arsenal are looking very vulnerable when the ball is swung into the box. The market is developing at the moment but he should be available to back around 14.013/1.

Finally, I imagine Emmanuel Adebayor will play against his former club, and while the price isn't so appealing it wouldn't surprise were he to pop up with a goal against his former club. He has played in this fixture 11 times in all competitions scoring nine and assisting four goals (for Arsenal eight goals two assists, for Spurs one goal, two assists).

Recommended Bets 
Back 2-2 @ 15.014/1, 3-2 @ 23.022/1, 2-3 @ 34.033/1
Back Steven Caulker to score @ 14.013/1
Back Emmanuel Adebayor to score @ 3.814/5

The Tactical View: Michael Cox

I fancy both sides to score in the North London derby – Arsenal have been defending poorly at set-pieces and conceded three last weekend against Fulham, while Tottenham’s defeat at Manchester City last season hinted at problems with a high defensive line. That was exactly Andre Villas-Boas’ problem against Arsenal last season with Chelsea, and I simply can’t see either side keeping a clean sheet.

The market has reacted to this, however, and at 1.54 it’s not a very tempting bet. Instead, considering that this fixture has seen two turnarounds in the last two seasons (Tottenham won 3-2 from 2-0 down in 2010/11, Arsenal won 5-2 from 2-0 down in 2011/12) and with Spurs conceding lots of late goals this season, I’ll back Arsenal to win from behind at around 8.4.