Live Q&A with Head of Sportsbook

Live Q&A with Head of Sportsbook

Our Head of Sportsbook will be taking over the @PinnacleSports Twitter account for a one-hour Q&A session on August 6th at 10am PDT/6pm BST, fielding questions from our followers. This is the first time the company has engaged its customers on this level and made ourselves this accessible. It’s another great reason to start following @PinnacleSports.

Pinnacle Sports has traditionally played its cards close to its chest, so this is a significant step forward for the company, and a great opportunity for players to quiz the Head of Sportsbook in the following areas:

Trading operations & traders

Setting & managing markets

Sports betting in general

Sports betting advice

Sports betting theory

… anything and everything that falls under his specific sphere of influence as the Head of Sportsbook.

Since the launch of the Twitter account in December 2012, there have been a lot of improvements based upon customer feedback, which has improved our followers’ experience. In fact, it’s been so positive that Pinnacle Sports is now ready to take this big step in the kind of interaction only social media can offer.

A Q&A session with the man who the bettors are effectively trying to beat, was the best way to continue implementing our pledge to engage with, as well as educate, bettors. After all, who better to inform you about sports betting than the top man at the best sportsbook in the world?

Through your questions, the Head of Sportsbook – direct, tactical and knowledgeable – will provide you with a close-up look at the goings on in our sportsbook like you’ve never seen before.

It isn’t a fluke that this is happening in the days before the big four domestic leagues get under way; it seemed like a great opportunity to get you ready for the season while getting you better acquainted with the @PinnacleSports Twitter account.

While questions will be fielded live on Twitter, that’s not the only way you can ask. Send your questions in advance to content@pinnaclesports.com and include your Twitter handle, or send a tweet that includes #AskPinnacle. While the team at Pinnacle Sports cannot guarantee to answer everyone, it will do its best.

There will be more information regarding #AskPinnacle in the weeks to come, so keep your eyes on @PinnacleSports, www.pinnaclesports.com and your inbox.

We look forward to seeing you on Twitter,

Gary Wise

Manager of Social Media

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

Shortfalls of betting on short-priced Grand Slam favourites

Shortfalls of betting on short-priced Grand Slam favourites

By Jack Ratcliffe Aug 19, 2013

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Wimbledon 2013 had more ups and downs than one of Jerzy Janowicz’s big serves, but for bettors, the most interesting surprise was losing two of the top four players in the opening rounds. Did this mark the end of profitably backing Grand Slam favourites, and what does it mean for the US Open?

Buying money at Grand Slams

The consistent success of the best four tennis players active today – Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray – has led to a commonly held belief that backing any of these to win in the early rounds of a Grand Slam is guaranteed profit.

The idea of guaranteed success – also known as “buying money” – is, of course, fictitious. The huge number of variables a tennis player faces means that there’s no certainty of an outcome, as injury, weather, errors and other factors can affect everyone. The odds reflect this, but bettors undervalue unlikely events, and therefore see these as guaranteed money, often building huge parlays.

The idea of guaranteed success – also known as “buying money” – is, of course, fictitious.

For the Big 4 at Wimbledon 2013, it was the first time in many years any of them hadn’t progressed past the first two rounds, with Nadal and Federer simply outplayed by Darcis and Stakhovsky. So are the big four broken?

The “buying money” years

Since the rise to prominence of Nadal and Federer, two of the games greatest ever players, it has generally been considered a safe bet to back them through the first round of any Grand Slam.

Excluding this year’s competition at the All-England club, you have to look back to the French Open in 2003 for the last time that either of these men lost in the 1st round. That’s an incredible 40 Grand Slams where the two have never slipped up.

Each of their odds for winning these early ties average at around 1.03, so backing both would present a profit of 6 per 100 wagered, or on a multiple, 6.90 per Grand Slam.

Over 40 tournaments (and ten years), that’s a total profit of 276 – a much better return than keeping your money in the bank for that period (a generous interest rate of 4% would have offered 40, if the 100 was kept as a year-on-year constant).

Better top four, bigger profits

If you include the recent rise of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic (and the creation of the Elite Four in tennis), there are 18 Grand Slams where all four have all progressed passed the first round. Betting a multiple on those would have returned 225.91 profit in just five years.

However, this option for easy money was shattered in 2013 by World No. 135 Steve Darcis’ win over Nadal – a sad day for anyone following this betting system (and a worse one for Rafa). This “Black Swan” event would have cost bettors trying to buy money 100, or nearly two and a half years of work.

More daring bettors could have applied this system to the second rounds of Grand Slams, for which the streak was also 18 Grand Slams. The added rounds would have at least double profitability, but again, Wimbledon 2013 provided a disruption. Almost as if trying to prove that the destruction of the top four’s form was a statistical inevitability, Federer was dismissed in the second round by Sergiy Stakhovsky.

Had you been following this tennis-based “buying money” system for both rounds, those two days would have seen you lose 200 – or half your profit in those five years.

Therefore “buying money” on short favourites is effectively a martingale system, where players would need to leave while they were ahead, less they eventually lose everything.

What about the US Open?

So where does this leave the Grand Slam early rounds theory? It’s still statistically probable that the Big Four will continue to progress pass the first two rounds – after all, they are better players than their opponents. Their odds are designed to reflect this, however, and as you can see by the Wimbledon 2013 example, there will always be an occasion when “buying money” falls short and the odds prove – over the long term – that they were correctly valued.

Would betting on the Big 4 to progress in the first round of the US Open return a profit? Probably. But is it worth risking a large amount for a proportionally small return? That’s up to bettors, but after Wimbledon 2013, we know that the answer is not a definite “yes”, and that you can’t buy money.

It’s important to note that grass is a more unpredictable surface than the hard courts of Flushing Meadows for players, who spend most of their season on solid courts, and therefore this could have added to difficulties Nadal and Federer faced. It also favours players with big serves, which further tilts the balance in favour of a player winning by simply having a good day.

Click here to see the latest US Open odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Pole vital around Monza

Pole vital around Monza

By Michael Gales Sep 5, 2013

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With 80% of pole sitters taking the checkered flag at Monza over the past 10 seasons, qualifying is even more important in the Italian Grand Prix than a typical F1 race. Read this preview ahead of the Italian Grand Prix on September 8th to gain an edge.

Monza: ‘the temple of speed’

The last stop on the European tour of the season sees the drivers and teams arrive at the historic Monza circuit for the 2013 Italian Grand Prix on September 8th. Having been through several incarnations since 1922, the modern circuit is now very different from the original, although the historic banking remains.

The race can be short as the cars rattle around the 190-mile distance in less than 90 minutes. Monza has been called ‘the temple of speed’ because it’s the quickest circuit. A remarkable 75% of the lap is spent on full throttle, which is combined with some heavy braking areas. The circuit puts considerable forces on the tyres and requires high levels of mechanical grip.

Tyres/strategy

Pirelli have selected the same compounds – hard and medium – used at Spa two weeks ago. Car set-up will be a compromise between the fast and slower sectors of the circuit. With the tyres playing a crucial role at Monza, it will allow for several strategy opportunities.

Twelve months ago the top two – Lewis Hamilton and Sergio Perez – used a one-stop strategy, with Perez claiming the runner-up spot from 13th on the grid after starting on the hard and switching to the medium, while Hamilton did the opposite. The highest-placed driver to use a two-stop strategy was Michael Schumacher, who finished 6th.

Correlation

Previously, we’ve proved that there is a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here). By using the same model, we examined the last ten Italian Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at Monza as a race performance indicator.

The data shows a 0.56 correlation between qualifying and race position at Monza.  In addition to the strong relationship the data highlights 70% of races correlate, showcasing that qualifying at Monza provides a strong predictor of a drivers’ race performance.

An impressive 80% of pole sitters have gone on to win the Italian GP in the last 10 GPs. This highlights that starting from pole is vital in securing an advantage for the race around Monza.

Vettel & Alonso keen to leave a mark

The two drivers  – Sebastian Vettel 2.840* and Fernando Alonso 4.360* – leading the World Championship will be hoping to claim victory at Monza, while both arrive at this year’s race chasing the same goal – the first to three Italian GP wins.

Between the two they have won four of the last six races at Monza – Alonso in 2007 & 2010, Vettel in 2008 & 2011 – and should either win on Sunday they would become the eighth driver to win more than twice at the historic circuit since 1950.

If Alonso or Felipe Massa secure the win for Ferrari it will give the Italian manufacturers their 19th home F1 win. Interestingly, last year’s winner Lewis Hamilton 4.850* could become the first driver since Damon Hill in 1993-94 to win at Monza in consecutive years.

Click here for the latest Italian Grand Prix odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

How the number of maps affects teams’ chances in eSports

How the number of maps affects teams’ chances in eSports

By Montse Garcia Oct 3, 2013

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Understanding the likelihood of a game or match winner in eSports isn’t that difficult to assess. However what happens when the number of games in a series changes? Is it more or less likely for a pre-series favourite to win?

Favourites are vulnerable in shorter eSports series

1, 2, 3, 5 and 7 map series are common in eSports. The fewer games played in a series gives the underdog a bigger chance of upsetting the odds, while the more games played remove the likelihood of variance and gives the favourite a bigger advantage.

With fewer games the underdogs can employ unique strategies to surprise their opponents such as a strong all-in for Starcraft or a tricky level 1 invade in League of Legends. But preparing four different and equally successful strategies is harder to achieve, and on average, the better team/player are more likely prevail, as they adapt to their adversary over a longer series.

Bettors should be aware that there is possible value in betting against the favourite in single games, as the odds can be perceived as the same as a best of 3 or 5 game series. There is a tendency to underestimate what can go wrong during a single map, and despite the favourite being more likely to win a series, in a single map there is a greater chance of variance from luck, mistakes and unique strategies, which can upset the odds.

How do previous games influence the next?

Now lets look into individual maps in a best of x series. In the opening game of a match, we can intuitively expect the same odds given to a best of 1, but what about the following maps.

When it comes to Starcraft 2, it’s important to mention we’re ignoring the effect the chosen map has on the match-up, so lets focus on the end line after this adjustment. Do the chances of a team/player change drastically after the first game of the series has been played?

In general, the chances shouldn’t be that different, but lets look a bit deeper into the specific factors that give bettors a tendency to alter the odds from the outcome of the opening map. For example, lets say there was a huge upset and the underdog took the first game. The bettor should analyse the key factors that led to the result.

If you believe it was a special cheese, an early snowball, or a bit of luck, you shouldn’t put too much weight on that result when thinking of the next game. But what if it was just an old-fashioned outplaying, with the underdog looking stronger than the alleged favourite? Well, maybe the bettor misjudged the chances at the beginning and the bookmaker was purely overvaluing one of the sides. In that case, it would be good to reassess the chances of both parties.

It’s not just in eSports where we see this occur. The effect of the longer best-of-five set matches, played in Grand Slam tennis matches, versus traditional best-of-three set matches is obvious when the outcome of a set is reduced to a simple win percentage for each player. (Read more here)

Casters love talking about “momentum“. If player A is two maps behind in a best of five, certainly their chances of taking the series have decreased drastically before any game was played, but according to the casters, so do their chances of winning the following map.

While it might not always be the case and some experienced teams and players have the mental strength to block such circumstances, there can be cases when the momentum kicks in to tilt the party that is playing catch-up. If you notice a player/team making uncharacteristic mistakes or being caught in questionable situations for example, one might guess that the previous result has affected them.

We simply can’t make an absolute rule about the variation in one team/player’s chances throughout the series. It’s something that has to be judged in a case-by-case basis, while starting from the supposition that the variation should be minimal to non-existent unless there’s special conditions that we believe grant the change.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Tropical storm could upset the odds

Tropical storm could upset the odds

By Michael Gales Oct 4, 2013

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Formula One rolls into Mokpo this weekend with Vettel leading Alonso by 60 points. The Korean Grand Prix is 14th on the 19 race calendar leaving 125 points up for grabs , so there is plenty still to race for and with a tropical storm expected close to the circuit, F1 bettors should be aware of the potential for an unpredictable race.

Circuit: Is pole an advantage?

The Yeongam circuit is situated close to Mokpo, to the south of the country and contains both fast and slow technical sections.

Hermann Tilke created the 3.49-mile circuit which features his trademark long straight followed by a hairpin between turns two and three. The straight is the longest in F1.

One major criticism of the track is the way the grid is aligned. Watch a re-run of last year’s race and the flaw is blatantly apparent with the inside line for the first corner afforded to cars starting on the dirty side of the grid i.e. drivers who performed less impressively as the car in front of them.

It’s for precisely this reason that Sebastian Vettel, starting from second place alongside Mark Webber, took the lead despite making an average start. It goes further though as by lap five every top-ten qualifying car starting on the right-hand side of the grid had lost position to the car which had lined up to its left.

F1 organisers are monitoring a Tropical Storm that is passing through parts of Asia

Twelve months later, will race organisers respond by placing the pole-sitter on the dirty side of the grid?

Tyre degradation should create exciting strategy opportunity

Like the previous race in Singapore the medium and supersoft compounds have been nominated for the Korean Grand Prix.

The Korea International Circuit is rarely used outside of the grand prix, so there will be a high degree of track evolution over the course of the weekend.

With an interesting mix of fast and slow corners, the circuit has the highest lateral energy demand of all the circuits where the supersoft is used, so tyre management is going to be imperative.

There is a significant difference in lap time expected between the two tyre compounds, as was the case in Singapore, which should help create interesting race strategies.

12 months ago only three drivers stopped once or three times, with the majority selecting a two-stop strategy. The top 10 qualifiers started on the supersoft tyre, while Jean-Eric Vergne moved from 16th on the grid to finish eighth.

Bad weather could be an issue

Formula one bettors should be aware of the possibility of bad weather for qualifying and the race. F1 organisers are monitoring a Tropical Storm that is passing through parts of Asia ahead of this weekend’s Korean Grand Prix.

While it may not hit South Korea, the storm could still cause heavy rain and strong winds, which will impact the race.

The first Korean GP in 2010 was disrupted by heavy storms, resulting in the race being suspended for over an hour – the affect it had on the race can been by the 0.26 correlation between qualifying and race performance.

Track Correlation unreliable due to sufficient of historical data

Previously, we’ve proved that there is a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here).

By using the same statistical model, we examined all three Korean Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at the Yeongam circuit as a race performance indicator.

The data shows a 0.56 correlation between qualifying and race position.  In addition to the strong relationship the data highlights two of the three races correlate, showcasing that qualifying at the Korean GP provides a reasonable predictor of a drivers’ race performance.

However, it is important to note that the data for the Korean Grand Prix represents a very small sample size. In a race/sport that can be influenced by a number of varied and complex outliers, a bettor should be wary of placing high confidence in such data.

Interestingly in the three previous Grand Prix the driver in pole position has never won – 2010 (2nd), 2011 (2nd) 2012 (17th).

Click here for the latest Korean Grand Prix odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

2013/14 NBA outright odds preview

2013/14 NBA outright odds preview

By Michael Gales Oct 16, 2013

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The Heat might be huge favourites at Pinnacle Sports to win a third consecutive NBA title, but what are the chances of the other big contenders causing an upset? Can Garnett inspire the Nets, will the Spurs last the distance and is it too early for the Rockets? Read an in-depth guide to the top 12 NBA contenders.

Heat huge favourites to win third consecutive title

With minimal player turnover in the offseason – losing just Mike Miller – it’s unsurprising that the Miami Heat are the huge 2.830* preseason favourites to secure a third consecutive NBA title. Since the arrival of the Big 3 – LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh – the Heat have reached three straight NBA finals, losing one and winning two.

After dominating the NBA in the last two years, one may question their motivation to win another title. However, you need to look no further than the Heat’s executive Pat Riley who is aiming to match Phil Jackson’s run of three-peats in the modern era, at the LA Lakers (2000-2002) and twice before with the Bulls (1991-1993 & 1996-1998).

James would also like to match the games’ greats such as Michael Jordan, Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant, by being the team’s focal point for three straight NBA title successes.

If the Heat are going to claim a third successive title they will rely on the genius of James, who last season secured his fourth MVP award in five seasons. Wade also had a strong season last time out but struggled once more with injuries – his variable health on the court is a constant cause for concern.

The Heat won 66 Regular season games last season, buoyed by a remarkable 27 win streak. They are offered at 1.746* to go over 61 wins in 2013/14, which is similar to the expectations before last season.

Sweet smell of Rose restores Bulls dreams

The return of leader Derrick Rose – out injured for a year – sees the Chicago bulls offered at 10.070* to lift the NBA title this year.

His return will make a big difference for the team offensively, possibly surging them towards 60-plus wins, which they achieved in his last two full seasons.

Coach Tom Thibodeau always gets the most out of the Bulls, and despite hints of creakiness with a couple of players, they could easily be the Heat’s main concern come playoff time.

They progressed to the Conference semi-final last year without their talisman, so the question remains – will his return make a significant difference as they go in search of a first NBA title since 1998?

Defense key to Pacers challenge

Last season the Pacers came within one game of the NBA Finals, falling in seven games to the eventual champions, The Miami Heat. They have retained the same core, but have improved in depth – particularly in offense. Could this propel them to the NBA Promised Land 12.380*?

The Pacers’ strength is in defence – with their throwback style from the sports physical past they almost beat the Heat last year by counteracting Miami’s small, athletic line-ups with their bruising play.

One negative for the Pacers is the loss of prize-assistant Brian Shaw – who has taken the top job at the Denver Nuggets. However, the first year after losing a key assistant rarely provides an impact.

Can Garnett inspire the Nets?

Brooklyn have improved their roster considerably in the offseason with the trio of Kevin Garnett (37), Paul Pierce (35) and Andrei Kirilenko adding leadership and a more defensive mind-set.

The additions make for a strong top seven, which is reflected in their Eastern Conference winner odds 6.250* and their outright NBA title odds 12.790*.

With Garnett and Pierce approaching the latter stages of their careers, minutes will need to be managed and that task will fall on the shoulders of first-time coach Jason Kidd. He will get plenty of help from defensive coach Lawrence Frank, while Garnett will give constant vocal support on the court.

The will of Russian owner Mikhail Prokhorov is definitely there and declaring himself all-in for the next two years with an enormous payroll.

What of the Knicks?

Last season the Knicks put together their best regular season since 1996-97 – winning 54 games – and won their division for the first time since 1994.

This offseason saw the addition of Metta World Peace and Andrea Bargnani. One is on his last legs, while the man dubbed the next ‘Dirk Nowitzki’ is looking to salvage downward spiralling perceptions after a tough two years at the Toronto Raptors.

The main challenge will be how well coach Mike Woodson can maximize his line-up rotation. On talent alone, they are solid, but as a team likely to go far in the playoffs, most are sceptical – reflected in the odds of 30.530*.

Can the ageing Spurs last the distance?

The timeless Spurs reached the NBA finals last year, and have surprised many by continuing to perform at such a high level – they were minutes away from beating the Heat last year. However they are another year older. In every sport athletes reach an age when serious decline sets in, could this be the year the Spurs fall off the cliff?

In 2012/13 Tim Duncan reversed the clock with a new training regime and seemed as good as he was several years prior. But for one injury phase Tony Parker was in the MVP discussion around midseason period, while Manu Ginobili has the least ‘tread’ left on his tyres and is the most injury prone.

One thing to keep in mind is that Leonard and Green are a two-way duo already seasoned enough to help win many games the veterans may miss through injury, and be sure not to underestimate the NBA’s best coach Gregg Popovich.

While a return to the NBA Finals will be a tough road, this squad continues to find a way to win and odds of 12.600* for the title suggest this.

Oklahoma City second favourites for second-ever title

With the expected return of Russell Westbrook roughly five weeks into the campaign, he will rejoin Kevin Durant in their blend as one of the most intimidating and athletic duos in NBA. Kevin Martin has gone, so the Thunder may lack shooting prowess off the bench.

Westbrook’s downtime may impact the Thunder enough to place them as a mid-seed entering the playoffs. The Thunder are at 7.820* to win the championship, but might have to take a couple of road playoff series’ and survive with a thin bench for the dream to become a reality.

Can Doc Rivers inspire the Clippers?

The Clippers registered their first 50-win season and division championship in their 44-year history last year, and by the general consensus have made a major coaching upgrade by bringing in Doc Rivers to replace Vinny Del Negro. In addition to the staff changes, on the court they re-signed Chris Paul, and brought in J.J. Redick, Jared Dudley and a couple of other bench additions.

Nonetheless, it could take time for Rivers to implement his new regime and improve a team, which are coming off the back of their best season. He will look to improve DeAndre Jordan and keep Chris Paul healthy.

The Clippers have a good shot at leading the West in regular season wins (2.180* to go over 57.5), but are they playoff tough enough (13.500* to win title)?

Is it too early for the Rockets?

Houston beat the competition to sign Dwight Howard – three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year.  Beyond raising Houston’s defensive status, Howard joins All-Star James ‘The Beard’ Harden creating a tandem that should give opposing defenses something to think about? Despite recent injuries and reported attitude problems, the first signs look positive, as Howard has embraced coach Kevin McHale, Harden and his new surroundings.

With a number of other additions to the roster the jury will be out to see if they can gel quickly enough to become a deep threat this season.

However it may take time for them to become a formidable force they are offered at 13.650* to win their first NBA title since 1995.

Can the Golden State Warriors shine?

The Warriors will aim to push the Clippers all the way in the Pacific division. They became everyone’s second team last year during their ousting of the Nuggets in Round 1 before falling in six to the eventual Western Conference champions The Spurs.

They have signed the 2012 All-Star Andre Iguodala, while keeping all their main assets. The key will be the health of both Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut – with Curry’s good health a driving force behind their success last season.

He set an NBA record with 272 3-pointers and combined with Klay Thompson for 483 makes from behind the arc – the most by any tandem in NBA history. Odds of 21.000* suggest they are outside challengers for the NBA title.

Can Joerger keep the Grizzlies roaring?

Memphis 28.000* were just one series short of the NBA finals last year, and they will attempt to go one better. The Grizzlies have a solid starting five, but the depth of the squad will determine how far Memphis can go. New coach David Joerger – previously their defensive coach –takes over from Lionel Hollins – can he get his ideas across early?

The Nuggets have a new look

The Denver team has a completely different look from five months ago, having lost Andre Iguodala, Kosta Koufos and Corey Brewer and replaced them with JJ Hickson, Nate Robinson and Randy Foye. However, one of the biggest changes is on the bench, as Brian Shaw has replaced George Karl.

So what does that mean for a Nuggets team coming off a 57-win season? The loss of Iguodala will be huge defensively, and Danilo Gallinari’s health concerns carry over from late last year.

Shaw was NBA’s highest paid assistant and greatly coveted by a number of teams for a head coach spot. However, the absence of Karl means a loss of in game experience an offensive creativity.

The Nuggets may soon bounce off the strength of the their solid core but odds of 59.960* suggest that deep playoff prospects appear to be a couple of years away, at least this year’s championship has come a tad early.

Click here for the latest NBA odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Aldo favourite ahead of bout

Aldo favourite ahead of bout

By Michael Gales Jul 26, 2013

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UFC 163 comes from the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro on August 3rd. The main event sees Jose Aldo defend his UFC Flyweight title on home soil against Chan Sung-Jung. Aldo is the big favourite with Pinnacle Sports but will need to be aware of Chan’s impressive submissions.

Aldo huge favourite to defend title against Sung-Jung

UFC Featherweight champion Jose ‘Junior’ Aldo is the heavy 1.144* favourite to defend his title against Chan ‘Korean Zombie’ Sung-Jung at UFC 163.

Brazilian Aldo was scheduled to fight lightweight Anthony Pettis before the latter pulled out due to a knee injury and was replaced by Sung-Jung. The champion will defend his title for the seventh time as he looks to extend his fantastic record of 22-1-0 and is currently on a 15 fight-winning streak.

Sung-Jung (13-3-0) enters the octagon as a 6.650* underdog, but has won his last three fights and has plenty of reasons to believe he can upset the odds in Brazil. Aldo has the advantage on the feet, but the challenger can rival him on the mat and is a dangerous submission fighter.

Both pugilists have an orthodox stance, and stand at 5’7 but the challenger will hold a two-inch reach advantage when they meet in the octagon.

Champion holds the striking advantage

Aldo has 13 KO wins (59%) in his career and is renowned as a ferocious striker who combines powerful punches, kicks and knees. His power and speed is phenomenal; the 45% accuracy and 3.46 strikes per minute make him one of the most dangerous strikers in MMA.

The ‘Korean Zombie’ may not be as powerful as Aldo, but uses awkward angles and creative timing to utilize his long reach, which has seen him KO 23% (3) of his victims in the past. Always a busy fighter – 4.61 strikes landed per minute – he has accuracy (43%) to match, while his ability to choose the right option in pressure situations is an asset as he vies for the title.

‘Junior’ absorbs just 1.91 strikes per minute and has a 73% defence compared to Sung-Jung who is tagged 3.77 times and has a weaker 64% defence – he has also been knocked out once in his career.

Expect Aldo to dictate the pace from the opening bell and keep the momentum rolling throughout.

Jung ready to clinch title

Aldo & Sung-Jung Fight Statistics

Striking

Aldo

Sung-Jung

Strikes landed per/min

3.46

4.61

Striking accuracy

45%

43%

Strikes absorbed per/min

1.91

3.77

Defense

73%

64%

Grappling

Aldo

Sung-Jung

Takedown average/15min

0.63

1.57

Takedown accuracy

60%

80%

Takedown defence

92%

100%

Submission average/15min

0.1

1.26

Jung’s strongest chance of dictating the fight is in the clinch. He may not be known for his wrestling, but will look to get close to Aldo and implement a takedown – 83% takedown accuracy at an average of 1.57 takedowns per three rounds. The challenger showed his class in the clinch against Dustin Poirier by utilizing knees and elbows to set up his takedowns on his way to a win.

Aldo would prefer to be on his feet and will attempt to stand at a striking distance. However, he is comfortable in the clinch due to his Muay Thai background. Most importantly though, Aldo knows how to avoid trouble in the clinch and turn the fight back in his favour.

Ground battle could be key

At 26 Aldo is not going to turn into a submission specialist – he has two submission career wins and his sole defeat came when he tapped out. However, when Aldo finds himself on the ground he nullifies his opponent’s attacks.

Sung-Jung is as dynamic on the ground – averages 1.26 submission attempts every three minutes – as he is on his feet. He has submitted eight opponents with a range of attacks and it’s this diversity, which makes him a dangerous opponent on the mat.

Aldo will look to minimize the damage done on the mat and return to his feet as soon as possible, while Sung-Jung is likely to be the more aggressive.

Final thoughts

‘Junior’ will look to move in and out of range with a succession of striking combinations, while the challenger will aim to frustrate the champion and implement an intelligent game that utilizes his long reach to set up the clinch.

How Sung-Jung reacts to pressure from Aldo could determine the outcome. If he is goaded into a slugfest he will struggle but if he can keep calm and wait for a clinch and subsequent takedown, he has the ability on the ground to upset the odds and leave as the new UFC Featherweight champion.

Click here to see the latest UFC 163 odds.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

*Odds subject to change