England v South Africa 3rd ODI: Bell the only bright spot for England

Graeme Smith could bring back Dale Steyn
BB cricket tipster Ed Hawkins is worried about England's confidence after a chaotic few days and South Africa should take advantage in game three at The Oval on Friday, says the SJA Betting Writer of the Year.
England
To lose one world no.1 ranking in a summer could be considered careless. But two? English cricket has surely never had such a tumultuous few weeks. The Kevin Pietersen saga, followed by the resignation of Andrew Strauss, has prompted a prolonged spell of navel gazing.
Indeed, so much so that the eye has been taken from the ball. English cricketers are a vulnerable, confused bunch at present and that much was evident in an 80-run defeat by South Africa, which knocked them from their perch, in Southampton.
Unbelievably, it gets worse for England. Graeme Swann has been rested for the rest of the series. For 'rested' read 'injured'. His troublesome elbow still concerns the selectors and James Tredwell, who took two wickets in his previous ODI, comes in as replacement.
South Africa
South Africa didn't even need Dale Steyn to take a lead but it would be foolish in the extreme not to bring him back to consolidate their advantage. Neither Morne Morkel nor Wayne Parnell bowled their allotted overs. Morkel went for more than five an over and he looks most vulnerable as Parnell offers ability with the bat.
Venue and conditions
The average first-innings score at The Oval in the last 10 ODIs is 260, a figure which lends itself to the notion that this is a heaven-sent batting strip. But it is not quite as good as many would make out. No side has passed more than 251 in the last five matches. One side has breached 300 - that being England against India in 2007, and they still lost.
There is a mini toss bias to be aware of but it should not impact on one's thinking. From 21 matches, 13 have been won by the side batting last but when we filter that to day-night matches only, a different picture emerges. In the five most recent ODI floodlit affairs, four have been won by the side batting first.
Match odds
We like the look of South Africa at 1.774/5 and are of the opinion that they have not shortened enough following England's listless effort in Southampton.
There were only a couple of times when the home side traded as favourites and they could find themselves struggling once again to keep pace with South Africa's fast starters on a wicket which will not aid their bowlers.
England are 2.285/4 to level the series at 1-1 but we do not want to get involved. Shorn of Swann, and Stuart Broad, for that matter, they are looking around for class acts and have found the cupboard bare. A Nos 6-7-8 axis of Kieswetter-Patel-Bresnan does not fill a punter with confidence, either. South Africa have yet to win at The Oval over the last 10 years and now could be their time.
Top England batsman
No batsman has scored more runs on this ground than Ian Bell in the last five years. It is proof that the wicket favours the shot-makers (Ravi Bopara is second). Bell has 331 runs from seven innings at an average of 47 and given that he showed good touch at the Rose Bowl with 45 from 41 balls, he could be worth following at around 4.507/2.
Top South Africa batsman
Hashim Amla blasted just the 150 last time out. The man's a machine. He should like The Oval, too. Don't forget he made an unbeaten 311 there earlier in the summer. He will go off at around 3.505/2.
Recommended bet
I Bell top England batsman at 4.507/2

ColГіn v River Plate: Confident hosts could play into dangerous River's hands

David Trezeguet's penalty box prowess can help River to victory, says Ed
Sunday's late kick-off promises to be one hell of a game between Coln and River Plate in Santa Fe making Over 2.5 Goals an attractive proposition, says Ed Malyon
River's talented squad were always going to be looking at a top six finish, while their fans expect arguably the biggest club in South America to be challenging for the title.
Not many people expected Coln to be in mix for a potential championship win (except this prescient genius) but they look capable of doing so with a phenomenal home record that has seen them lose just twice on Avenida Juan Jos Paso in 2012.
Their stadium has long been called 'The Elephant's Graveyard' due to the hosts' habit of beating the 'big five' of Argentine football - even in the period where they dominated domestic football - as well as Pel's Santos when they had just won back-to-back Copa Libertadores titles.
With their strongest squad in quite a few years, Coln will be confident of taking on this River side having not lost a game yet this season and sitting top of the tree at this early stage. River though, will be a far more dangerous proposition on the road than they are at their El Monumental home.
The Millionarios' reputation goes before them, and teams head to Nuez with the sole intention of getting men behind the ball. Belgrano did it on the opening day, and despite the hosts' dominance of possession, the Pirates sucker-punched Matas Almeyda's side and won 2-1. Last week, San Lorenzo made the short trip north and played for a draw, achieving it in the most dull and goalless fashion in front of a raging cauldron full of River fans.
Away from home they find teams more willing to go for them, and visiting Coln while the Santafesinos are so confident could play into their hands. Rogelio Funes Mori seems to have improved a lot following a poor 18 months, and with his pace and that of 5ft 1in Daniel Villalva, they can stretch teams. This, of course, is without even mentioning the penalty box prowess of World Cup winner David Trezeguet or the disequilibrating talent of rising star Manuel Lanzini.
Even though Coln will be without the injured Rubn Ramirez, they have the potent duo of Curuchet and Gigliotti to lead the line, with plenty of goals in midfield from the experienced Ivan Moreno y Fabianesi. They've not failed to score in any game this campaign, and they will be keen to keep this run going on Sunday night.
Match Odds
The odds show you just how tight this game could prove to be. Coln have been impressive, but it's worth considering how much their results stand up to real scrutiny. The win against Racing is one that impressed, but the results against San Martn and Belgrano leave a question mark over the Sabaleros. A home win price of 2.546/4 isn't tempting enough to back another 'elephant' to be slayed, and laying them is probably the best option on the results market.
Over 2.5 Goals
In their last eight games, these two sides have only partaken in two games that have gone under 2.5 goals. Coln's came in their early fixture in San Juan when they still looked slightly disjointed and snuck past a poor San Martn side 1-0. River's came last week in the previously mentioned fixture with San Lorenzo, when Ricardo Caruso Lombardi's side came to spoil any semblance of a game. With River Plate's side bursting with goals, and Coln having scored at least two in all of their last three games.
The overs look to be overpriced at 2.6613/8.
Other bets
The correct score market throws up some interesting propositions. River's defence is unconvincing, with a centre-back playing at left-back and the unpredictable Jonathan Bottinelli still to bed in alongside Jonathan Maidana. Both teams are likely to score, but with the shape of the game likely to favour the visitors, 1-2 is a tempter at 12.5n/a.
Both teams to score is 2.1211/10 and also should be on your shortlist, with the hosts having scored in every game they've played this season and River boasting an arsenal of top-notch forwards on the bench if they need a change.
Recommended Bets
Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 2.6613/8
Correct Score: 1-2 at 12.5n/a

Torneo Inicial Betting: Preview of all the weekend's action

Ed likes the look of Jose Sand's Racing Club this weekend at a decent looking 1.77

Ed Malyon brings us his weekly preview of all of this weekend's Argentinian action and he has found plenty of value. Read on for more, including his 'easiest bet of the weekend'

Friday night

All Boys v Unin Santa Fe - 00:30

The visitors are one of only two pointless sides after four games, although many fans would argue that unpopular club LCTM All Boys are 'pointless' too. The Albo are winless, but have managed three draws at least. Their opening fixtures have been tough though, so we will give them the benefit of the doubt and back them to beat the hapless Santafesinos at anything outside evens (2.0421/20 at the time of writing).

Saturday

Newell's Old Boys v Estudiantes - 20:15

This is arguably the game of the weekend, pitting two potential title contenders against each other at an early stage. Newell's look set to make an even better fist of it than last year, where they tailed off towards the latter part of the season. Estudiantes look solid enough but won't challenge. Curiously the visitors have won both away games, losing their two at home - put this down to their style of play suiting the counter-attack. However, they won't be winning this one and it's best to either lay the visitors or back-to-lay on the draw with Newell's slightly too short for now at their mark of 2.1411/10.

Arsenal v Lans - 23:10

This one is pretty evenly-matched as a contest, with Lans having won only one game this season, but faced four of the top seven. They only suffered narrow defeats to Newell's and leaders Coln, but a win at Vlez was a great result before holding Racing to a draw. Arsenal lie fifth at the moment, but with few results of any pedigree yet in this campaign, they are far too short at 2.186/5. Such a tight game should provide plenty of in-play opportunities to build up some green.

Vlez v Belgrano - 00:20

After four matches Belgrano are undefeated and that is no mean feat. They've faced three clubs that will be in the mix for the championship at the end of the season as well as another of Argentina's big five, San Lorenzo. A trip to Vlez is never easy, but this isn't a vintage Fortn side and their results this season aren't hugely impressive despite accruing seven points. Given Belgrano have ground out draws against tough opposition in their last three, the 3.39/4 for them to do it again is good value, and they are overpriced for the win out at 4.84/1.

Sunday

Tigre v San Lorenzo - 18:10

Ricardo Caruso Lombardi has set his San Lorenzo side out to grab draws in their last two away games and they succeeded on both occasions. At Belgrano they managed it with ten men, and at River they did it despite a spicy clsico atmosphere. Tigre have had a difficult start to the season, but they aren't as strong as last season, and the best course of action in this one looks to be laying the hosts at 2.245/4.

Boca Juniors v Atletico Rafaela - 20:15

This should be straightforward for the Xeneize. Dumped out of continental competition on Wednesday night, their only focus now will be the league, and winless Rafaela could be the first victims of their unerring march to the title. They may be lacking creativity, but the strength of their frontline alone will give Boca (1.68/13) a win here, probably by more than one goal.

Godoy Cruz v Independiente - 22:15

Godoy Cruz are vastly improved from last season, and look like they could well be 'back' after a poor 12 months. Mendoza is a tough place to go to, and not even new manager Americo Gallego will be confident of getting three points for Independiente - especially after playing in the Sudamericana on Wednesday night. Back the hosts for this one against the winless Rojo.

Coln v River Plate - 00:15

Check this weekend's big match preview for an in-depth look at this one

Monday

Quilmes v Argentinos Juniors - 21:10

Falklands veteran Omar de Felippe has done a wondrous job at Quilmes since taking over, not only to get them promoted but to lead them to third place in the Primera. It is only early days, but the Brewers are unbeaten and boast a 3-0 win over Boca from the opening day. Their away results have been disappointing against weak-ish opposition but at home to Argentinos, and bearing in mind that AAAJ will have played in the Sudamericana on Thursday night, it's a night to back the hosts (2.1411/10) with Caneo back in the side.

Racing Club v San Martn de San Juan - 23:15

The easiest bet of the weekend is to back Racing at home to hapless San Martn. The Academia have got a strong, deep squad and they should have no problem dispatching San Martn who not only have lost all four of their games, but have scored just one goal all season. A price of 1.774/5 is far, far too big.

Capital One Cup: Northampton to cause another shock

Aidy Boothroyd will hope for another big result against Wolves
Northampton have giant-killing pedigree and Christian Crowther believes Wolves could be their next victims...
Northampton v Wolves, Thursday 19:45, Sky Sports 1, Match Odds: Northampton 3.65n/a, Wolves 2.186/5, The Draw 3.613/5
Northampton are becoming quite adept at dumping out the big teams from this competition as they proved by beating 2011/12 runners-up Cardiff in the first round.
And of course the League Two outfit famously accounted for last season's winners Liverpool at Anfield in a third round penalty shootout during Roy Hodgson's ill-fated tenure in 2010/11.
Next up is a Wolves side that have been busy selling prize assets such as Matt Jarvis and Steven Fletcher as they face the reality of life after relegation back to the Championship.
There is also talk of striker Kevin Doyle leaving the club before Friday's deadline, which would be another bitter blow.
Wanderers have responded by announcing the signings of Rennes winger Razak Boukari and St Etienne midfielder Bakary Sako for reportedly around 3 million each but the pair may not feature here.
With all the upheaval at Wolves, this could be the perfect time for Northampton to play the Championship club, despite losing this very fixture 4-0 in the same competition last season.
Wolves are a much different side to the one which arrived at Sixfields that day and only just scraped past League Two Aldershot in the previous round, needing a penalty shootout to settle matters at Molineux.
Wolves should of course have the ability to trouble their lower-league opponents, but there could be yet another giant-killing in the offing for the Cobblers here during a turbulent week.
Recommended Bet: Back Northampton to beat Wolves @ 3.65n/a
Everton v Leyton Orient, Wednesday 19:45, Match Odds: Everton 1.192/11, Leyton Orient 19.018/1, The Draw 9.08/1
To the delight of Everton fans, the Toffees have deserted their slow starters tag in favour of a blistering opening to the 2012/13 season, having already accounted for Manchester United at Goodison Park and beaten Aston Villa 3-1 away.
Though David Moyes will probably experiment slightly with his line-up, it's really difficult to see anything other than an Everton win here.
Their home form is formidable too having scored 14 times and only conceded once in the last five games - all against Premier League opposition.
In contrast, after seeing off London rivals Charlton on penalties, Leyton Orient went on to lose their next two games.

Recommended Bet: Back Everton to win both halves @ 2.111/10

Ayr Gold Cup: Gordon Lord Byron tops weights

The Ayr Gold Cup is always a competitive affair
Irish-trained Gordon Lord Byron heads the weights on 9st 12lb for the Ayr Gold Cup on September 22...
Tom Hogan's four-year-old staked his claim for the six-furlong heritage handicap with victory in the listed City of York Stakes on the Knavesmire on Saturday. There is a massive entry of 208 that includes last year's winner Our Jonathan (9st 6lb).
Kevin Ryan's charge was last seen finishing unplaced in the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon, which was won by Pepper Lane for the second successive season. David O'Meara's mare has also been allotted 9st 6lb.
Our Jonathan is one of four past winners of the Ayr Gold Cup given an entry along with Jimmy Styles (9st 4lb), hero of this race in 2009, the 2008 scorer Regal Parade (9st) and Advanced (8st 4lb), successful in 2007.
Stewards' Cup hero Hawkeyethenoo (9st 8lb) could try to complete a notable sprint handicap double. Jim Goldie's stable star denied Imperial Guest (9st 2lb) by a nose at Glorious Goodwood.
The latter's trainer George Margarson has not ruled out running the six-year-old in the feature race at the Western Meeting after his charge got his head in front at the Sussex course over seven furlongs on Saturday. "He's come out of Goodwood very good and we've just got to decide where to go with him," said the Newmarket handler.
"He's a possibility for the Ayr Gold Cup, but there's a race at Ascot two weeks later which he might go for instead. We'll see. I'm keen to go to Ayr, but the owners live near Ascot. It would be nice to do the two, Redford won both two years ago, but it's a long old drive up to Scotland and with a horse like him it could flatten him for two or three weeks. I'll leave the options open and I'm not saying he's in or out of anything. You never know what the weather is going to do."
Mark Johnston has two leading contenders near the top of the handicap in Van Ellis and Fulbright. Both have been allotted 9st 6lb.
However, Sir Michael Stoute's Duke of Firenze (8st 5lb) and Ron Harris's Prodigality (8st 4lb), who are both prominent in the ante-post market, trading at 15.5n/a and 15.014/1 respectively, could struggle to get into the maximum 27-strong field.
For those missing the cut for the Gold Cup, there are two consolation races, the Silver and Bronze Cups.
Get open access to Timeform data for just 2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!

Timeform US SmartPlays: Wednesday August 29

Can our US team continue the winning sequence?

After three winning selections on Tuesday, Timeform's US team return with another three SmartPlays...

Saratoga race 3 (19:06 BST) win back #5 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY at 2.01/1 or longer
Delaware race 5 (20:15 BST) win lay #6 BIG DUTCH at 4.03/1 or shorter
Presque Isle Downs race 4 (23:40 BST) win back #4 MERCY LOU at 3.65n/a or longer

In-Running Week: Rover going for Cup succes and some In-Play profit

Richard Fahey, trainer of Doncaster Rover and Area Fifty One
Two Richard Fahey runners are added to Neil Munro's In-Running database this week with particular interest being on Doncaster Rovers if he takes his chance in the Ayr Gold Cup...
Martha Graham once said that 'the only sin is mediocrity'. Who was Martha Graham I hear you ask (or maybe not)? Martha was an American dancer and choreographer who was described by many as the Picasso of dance. Now I am no dancer - I would have been a challenge for Martha - but I do believe in what she said, apart from in one instance; in-running trading.
Mediocre racing is no sin as horses at this level are not analysed as much as those running at the grade one tracks and Saturday horses. This gives you more chance of finding angles and value to trade. But having said that even I like to try and find some better horses to trade on so here are a few.
Chachamaidee
I am not sure Martha would have ever danced the Cuban Chachacha but she would have recognised that Chachamaidee is far from mediocre. The five year old won the Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and then returned to the same track to try and pick up the Celebration Mile recently. She travelled in her regular style at the back of the pack, moving smoothly into the race two furlongs but just never got to the front running Premio Loco. I believe her premium trip is seven furlongs so this mile may just stretch her at times but she certainly does have class. Because of her field position in a race she does tend to trade bigger in the run but then when delivered late tends to hit low points as well.
Back Chachamaidee for half your stake pre-race at BSP and then put up a further offer at double the BSP in the run. Over one mile lay out your combined stake at the matched price. The put up a further offer at odds-on to have the field winning. Over seven furlongs only put up the odds-on lay for your combined stake.
Doncaster Rover
I just have a sneaky feeling for Doncaster Rover in the Ayr Gold Cup. Richard Fahey knows what it takes to win the race having done so with the class sprinter Fonthill Road and there has been a trend in recent years for the winner to have some seven furlong winning form on their CV. I am sure that Fahey will throw a few at this race but if Doncaster Rover runs in the contest it will be the first time he has run below Listed and Group company (bar a couple of efforts in handicaps in Meydan which are always more like Listed events anyway) since his two year old career. His record in Class Two events is two wins out of two runs. In-running wise he tends to trade bigger in the run as he is a hold up performer who is produced late.
On Doncaster Rover's next three runs (including the Ayr Gold Cup I hope) back half you stake at BSP and then put up a further offer at double the BSP in the run. Lay out double your matched stake at the matched price.
Area Fifty One
Another Richard Fahey horse on the service and one that I have grown to admire over the last year as an identified flying object rather than the unidentified ones the conspiracy theorists believe are held at the Nevada military base that his horse is named after. He is a prominent runner with plenty of courage and battling qualities who made a fantastic effort to win the Ebor, just coming up three lengths short. That was on ground softer than Area Fifty One likes, and over a trip he hadn't encountered before, so he showed what he was all about even in defeat.
Back Area Fifty One pre-race at BSP. On good to firm ground lay out your stake only at 1/2 the BSP and on any other ground lay out virtually double your stake with a further odds-on offer to have the field winning for you.