среда, 29 октября 2014 г.

Serie A Tips: Goals for Genoa, Milan and a Lazio striker

Filip Djordjevic has enjoyed a near-instant impact at Lazio

There are four televised Serie A fixtures this midweek; Michael Lintorn recommends a bet for each...

Sassuolo v Empoli
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on ESPN and Betfair Live Video

Match Odds: Sassuolo 2.245/4, Empoli 3.711/4, The Draw 3.45n/a

Sassuolo obtained their first Serie A victory of the campaign at Parma on matchday eight while Empoli were beaten 0-4 at home by Cagliari, so the natural conclusion from those results is that the home win is a big price. However, Sassuolo have won just twice in 14 Serie A outings as hosts and Empoli hadn't lost in six before their weekend aberration. Both sides have drawn a league-high four of their opening eight games.

Recommended Bet: Back the draw @ 3.45n/a

Cagliari v AC Milan
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 2 and Betfair Live Video

Match Odds: Cagliari 3.55n/a, AC Milan 2.226/5, The Draw 3.55n/a

After an inauspicious start, Cagliari have really taken off in their last four matches, conquering Inter 4-1 and Empoli 4-0, as well as holding fourth-placed Sampdoria to a 2-2 draw. As with any Zdenek Zeman-coached team, there is plenty of entertainment along the way. Their fixtures average three goals, while AC Milan's rack up 3.5 - the joint-fifth and second highest figures in Serie A respectively - so over 2.5 goals is the obvious punt.

Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.84/5

Genoa v Juventus
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video

Match Odds: Genoa 8.27/1, Juventus 1.558/15, The Draw 4.1n/a

Juventus have a three-point lead at the top of Serie A following Roma's weekend draw with Sampdoria but if there is a fault to be picked, it is that they have conceded five goals in five games - keeping only one clean sheet - since surrendering their ten-match shutout streak. Genoa have netted five times in their last three encounters, with summer signings Alessandro Matri and Mauricio Pinilla scoring seven between them already.

Recommended Bet: Back Juventus not to keep a clean sheet @ 1.855/6

Verona v Lazio
Thursday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video

Match Odds: Verona 3.45n/a, Lazio 2.285/4, The Draw 3.55/2

The statistics favour the Lazio triumph - they have won four in a row, whereas Verona have lost three in four - but the Gialloblu are decent enough hosts (one defeat in seven) to encourage slight caution. Instead, it is Lazio forward Filip Djordjevic's five goals in four appearances, including four in two away, that intrigues most, with the Serbian summer signing succeeding in lessening the capital club's dependence on Miroslav Klose.

Recommended Bet: Back Djordjevic to score @ 2.915/8

What next for Chelsea and Manchester United?

Thibaut Courtois has proved his class so far this season

After playing out a 1-1 draw on Sunday, Alex Johnson looks into what is next for the two Premier League giants.

Seconds after Robin van Persie's equaliser, Louis van Gaal and Jose Mourinho embraced at the end of their first meeting in four years.

They are due to meet again in April - by which time we will know if the Dutchman has been able to turn the listing oil tanker on the high seas (that United appear to be) onto the correct course that his Portuguese protg is already steering.

Sunday's over-hyped clash provided a late twist after Chelsea again failed to hold onto a 1-0 lead in Manchester.

United fans were largely of the opinion that it was the best their side have played under Van Gaal and the celebrations that went on at Old Trafford in the 94th minute highlight how their horizons have shifted in the 17 months since Sir Alex Ferguson retired.

Mourinho looked a touch miffed but his demeanour suggested that he felt the referee had cost his side victory.

Chelsea had a very good penalty claim turned down in the first half when it was still 0-0 and picked up seven yellow cards (leading to Branislav Ivanovic's red) to United's three in a match where the visitors committed only one more foul than the hosts.

Bet 10 Get 30 with Betfair Plus Money Back if you Lose

The Serbian's dismissal surely played a part in the equaliser, but Chelsea had already surrendered the initiative that Dider Drogba's 53rd minute opener had given them long before Van Persie struck.

Analysis of possession and average player position stats demonstrates how Chelsea's players dropped deeper, subconsciously maybe, in the minutes that followed their best spell in the game.

Chelsea had 64 per cent of the ball in the ten minutes that preceded the opener, with Eden Hazard weaving his magic to go through one-on-one just prior to the set-piece goal.

But they switched off to allow United back into the game straight after that with Chelsea keeping possession for only 45% in the next ten minutes - figures which mirror their performance at the Etihad Stadium in September when they went from 55% possession in the 10 minutes before Andre Schurrle's goal to 26% possession in the 10 minutes after - and Manchester City had 10 men.

That's something for Mourinho's men to work on if they are going to sweep all before them this season, but to remain unbeaten through the first three months is impressive and gives Chelsea a chance of matching Arsenal's 'Invincibles'.

Thibaut Courtois again demonstrated why Petr Cech can barely get a game, denying Van Persie in a couple of huge moments when the match was in the balance.

He continues to bail out the occasional slip from a defence which looks great on paper but need to keep more clean sheets to satisfy their manager.

And let's not forget that Mourinho was without four key players in Diego Costa, Loic Remy, Cesar Azpilicueta and Ramires.

Chelsea's squad is the deepest in the land and it will be tested, particularly if Costa's injury woes that dogged him last season are back again, but they are on "another level" to anyone else in England, according to Gary Neville.

United had to play their best game just to live with a below-par Chelsea side but will have their confidence boosted before the Manchester derby.

The 'never say die' attitude that pervaded the Ferguson era is back and there are visible foundations to build on with the link-up between teenagers Luke Shaw and Adnan Januzaj on the left particularly encouraging.

Juan Mata may have failed to stake a claim to keep his place once Wayne Rooney returns, but Marouane Fellaini finally looks like he belongs in a red shirt and will be a useful option going forward.

But right now, United are just aiming for fourth place while Chelsea feel they can win all four trophies on offer.

Man City v Newcastle: Magpies to act star-struck again

Manuel Pellegrini's two-up-top approach has been criticised after successive setbacks against CSKA Moscow and West Ham

Newcastle have a terrible record against Man City, which Michael Lintorn expects to continue in the Capital One Cup...

Man City v Newcastle
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Man City 1.341/3, Newcastle 11.010/1, The Draw 6.05/1

At first glance, this Capital One Cup fourth-round tie appears ripe for an upset. Man City are fresh off the week from hell, surrendering a 2-0 lead to earn a solitary Champions League point away to CSKA Moscow then being beaten 1-2 at West Ham in the Premier League to slip six points behind Chelsea.

Newcastle by contrast have consigned some of the "Sack Pardew" banners to the recycling bin by achieving successive Premier League victories after a run of one of 15 prior to that. If a 1-0 win over Leicester was unlikely to wow critics, a from-behind triumph at Tottenham demanded a little respect.

While the Magpies have flip-flopped from fifth to 16th to tenth during their current four-and-a-half year Premier League stay, one constant has been their ability to upset the elite. They have won at Arsenal, Chelsea (twice), Man United and Tottenham (twice), as well as twice defeating Liverpool at St James' Park.

However, they have never managed to get Man City on their hook, last overcoming the champions in 2005, since when they have met 17 times. Newcastle have come off worst in all ten collisions since returning to the top tier in 2010, losing nine in 90 minutes and taking them to extra time once in a cup clash on Tyneside.

Alan Pardew also has some selection issues, with the standard Premier League club Capital One Cup rotation policy compromised by the fact that the two guys who delivered for the first XI at White Hart Lane - Sammy Ameobi and Ayoze Perez - would usually be judged part of the second string.

Man City Clean Sheet

The Man City clean sheet looks exceptional value at 2.265/4 given that the Capital One Cup holders shut Newcastle out in each of their previous five showdowns, which added up to eight hours of football.

The Citizens didn't give up a single goal to any of their three prior visitors in the competition, scoring an obscene 18 goals of their own, while Newcastle have fired blanks in seven of their past 11 trips to fellow Premier League teams.

Half With Most Goals

Man City v Newcastle is a symmetry-heavy fixture, with the goals divided evenly between the two halves. Their opening weekend encounter this term was 1-0 at half time and 2-0 at full time, last season they contested a 4-0, a 2-0 and a 0-0 which were 2-0, 1-0 and 0-0 at the interval, and their two 2012/13 games had the same equilibrium between halves one and two, with two goals in each.

Four of Newcastle's six away dates at top-flight sides in 2014/15 have also seen the same number of strikes in each 45-minute segment.

Best Bet: Back Man City to keep a clean sheet @ 2.265/4
Other Recommended Bet: Back both halves to have the same number of goals @ 4.03/1

Football Bet of the Day: Italy still the place to be for goals galore

Claudio Foscarini's Cittadella are an entertaining team

After a winning start to the week, Kevin Hatchard has taken the unusual decision to stay put, and bring us another selection from Italy.

Cittadella v Livorno
Tuesday October 28, 19:30

We said Trapani were an Overs backer's dream, and that dream came true last night. The Garnets took the lead after just five minutes (yesterday's poster boy Matteo Mancosu hit the target again), and by the 64th minute, Bologna had turned it around to lead 2-1 and land our wager. If you're interested, it stayed 2-1. If you're not, I just told you anyway.

Now I know my job is to take you around the globe, but we're doing something unusual and staying in the same country, and the same league. Stop moaning - I've told Alfredo to upgrade your room at the hotel, and we'll go to that lovely pizzeria later.

The reason we're staying in Italy's Serie B is that there's another Over 2.5 Goals bet where the price looks too big to ignore. Livorno, who are fifth in the standings, are travelling to face 19th-placed Cittadella.

Cittadella have scored 15 goals in ten games, and shipped 17. Seven of their ten league matches have featured three goals or more, and if you extend the statistics to all competitions, that figure becomes nine games out of 12. Claudio Foscarini's men are still looking for their first clean sheet of the campaign, and they have only failed to score twice.

Livorno are much more solid defensively, having leaked just seven league goals. However, Overs backers can take encouragement from their recent form in front of goal. The Mullets (the fish, not the hairstyle) have bashed in ten goals in their last three games, and against this permeable Cittadella defence they could have a field day.

I suspect the price of 2.3611/8 for Over 2.5 Goals is based on the fact that just four of Livorno's 11 games have featured three goals or more, but they have upped their game offensively, and Cittadella are a freewheeling side who score and concede goals regularly.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.3611/8

2014 P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 43

Points Returned: 41.94

P/L: -1.06 points

Betfair Live Video: Lierge not up to Standard against Anderlecht

Vukomanovic takes the reigns for Standard...

Reuben Thomas checks in on the champions in Belgium and Portugal and previews two top clashes available on Betfair Live video this Sunday...

Anderlecht vs Standard
Sunday 17:00

Sunday afternoon and a big rivalry from the Belgian Jupiler league as last year's top two face off in Brussels.

After eleven games gone champions Anderlecht again lead the way as they go in hunt of their fourth straight title. They have four wins and a draw from their first five home games and you need to go back to April to find their last loss in the league.

In midweek they looked to be claiming a famous win over Arsenal only to disappointingly drop their concentration levels late on and concede two heartbreaking goals. It was an unjust result and they will be determined to get it out of their system with a win on Sunday.

Despite their impressive showings so far this season that loss to Arsenal made it four matches without a win and coach Besnick Hasi will be concerned they are not scoring at the same rate they managed last year.

Strikers Cyriac and Archeampong worked tirelessly on Wednesday night and they may be rested with the more dangerous pair of Suarez and Mitrovic to start. Young Serbian striker Aleksandar Mitrovic looks a superstar in the making and leads the goal scoring charts.

Visitors Standard Lierge are in disarray. After running their old foes Anderlecht so close last year this season has begun awfully. After ten games they find themselves in eleventh spot and are conceding over two goals a game.

Last week whilst trailing Zulte the 'Rouches' fans finally lost patience and started vandalising their stadium leading the game to be abandoned. In the wake of those ugly scenes their manager Guy Lazon, who had performed so admirably last season decided enough was enough and fell on his sword.

This weekend will see Ivan Vukomanovic take control of first team affairs in the league for the first time in his career and his job couldn't be harder considering the fixture.

Standard are without a win in five but their away form has been better than their home performances and a battling goalless draw with Sevilla on Thursday suggested there was still a lot of fight in the squad.

Don't expect a walkover but Anderlecht's impressive recent record against Standard should continue.

Recommended Bets:
Back Anderlecht to win @ 1.625/8
Back an Anderlecht clean sheet @ 2.568/5

Braga vs Benfica
Sunday 20:15

Sunday evening's action comes from 'The Quarry' in Braga as Champions Benfica attempt to continue their blistering start to the season.

Benfica are sitting pretty in top spot and are four points clear of Porto already, Jorge Jesus' side are again looking the pick of the pack in Portugal with six wins and a draw from their opening seven fixtures.

Despite the losses of some key names in the summer Benfica can still boast the likes of Gaitan, Salvio and Lima amongst their ranks and the emergence of the Brazilian attacking midfielder Talisca has been particularly pleasing for 'The Eagles' this year, he has notched six goals already.

Benfica's away form has been sensational recently; with their last three outings they have accumulated nine points and nine goals. All form points towards an away win however they traveled to Monaco on Thursday for a hard fought goalless draw in the Champions league and could be fatigued.

Hoping to capitalise on that tiredness will be Sergio Conceicao's Sporting Braga side team who have looked dominant at home so far this season.

Braga traditionally are hard to beat in their unique stadium, a resolute defence has been the basis to three home wins in which they have scored eight and conceded one so far this season. Their star man has been Ze Luis, the striker from Cape Verde and he will likely pose their biggest threat on Sunday evening.

Home or away Benfica are favourites in this league unless they are playing one of the other 'Tres Grandes' but this Sunday offers a rare opportunity to oppose the champions who may be the less energetic after their midweek exploits.

Recommended Bets:
Back Braga to win @ 4.67/2

Premier League Review - Chelsea stay top, QPR off the bottom

Charlie Austin grabbed a brace on Monday night

Chelsea dropped two points whilst Charlie Austin scored twice. We round-up the weekend action in the Premier League.

Chelsea continue to top the Premier League after nine games and now Southampton sit second after Manchester City lost ground.

The big game of the weekend came on Sunday as Manchester United produced a dramatic finale to snatch a late 1-1 draw with Chelsea. It was a case of the master versus the apprentice in the dug-outs as old friends Louis van Gaal and Jose Mourinho faced off, but the Blues boss is likely to see this as two points dropped.

Chelsea went ahead through Didier Drogba's first Premier League goal since his return, but the big question has to be why was the tiny Rafael marking Drogba on corners? United continue to look all-over-the-place in defence and were thankful to Robin van Persie for rescuing a point. After Branislav Ivanovic was shown a second yellow card, Thibaut Courtois produced a brilliant save from Marouane Fellaini but Van Persie was on hand to smash in the rebound. It sparked massive celebrations around Old Trafford but this result does little to mask over the frailties in Van Gaal's side. Mourinho will be frustrated, but Chelsea still sit four points clear at the top of the table.

Southampton continued their fantastic start to the season to claim second place after a Sadio Mane goal secured all three points in a 1-0 victory over Stoke. It was a fourth consecutive win at St Mary's for the Saints as Ronald Koeman's revolution on the South Coast continues. Southampton were full of confidence and should have scored more as they were in control throughout the game - it is currently exciting times on the South Coast for Saints' fans.

Bet 10 Get 30 with Betfair Plus Money Back if you Lose

Defending champions Manchester City slip to third after they went down to a 2-1 defeat to West Ham, who are now only a place behind City. Manuel Pellegrini's side have struggled to match the performances of last season and looked jaded for periods in a lacklustre performance at Upton Park. Goals from Morgan Amalfitano and Diafra Sakho - who has now scored in six straight league games - gave the Hammers a memorable victory. Sam Allardyce's troops are revitalised this season and look really dangerous going forward. The manager has added quality in all the right areas and the West Ham fans are now reaping the rewards. City can count themselves fortunate that Man United did them a favour to limit Chelsea to only one point on Sunday. As it is, City are six points behind the leaders and need to improve dramatically to hold onto Chelsea's coat-tails.

Arsenal are three points behind City in fifth after they heaped more problems on Sunderland's Gus Poyet with a 2-0 win at the Stadium of Light. After last week's 8-0 embarrassment at Southampton, the Black Cats could have done with a pick-me-up. But a terrible mistake from Wes Brown gifted Alexis Sanchez the first of his two goals. A Vito Mannone-error allowed the Chilean international his second late on. In truth, Arsenal didn't boss this game and were thankful in the end to two big errors to give them both goals. Arsene Wenger's side didn't really create many great chances and will be relieved to return to North London with three points. For Sunderland, it is now important to cut out such dreadful errors if they are to climb out of the bottom three.

Wilfried Bony struck twice to end Swansea's five-game run without a win as they beat Leicester 2-0 at the Liberty Stadium. While it was a relief to Garry Monk to finally get a win, it is troubling times for Nigel Pearson. Leicester, after starting the season in good form, are now without a win in four and they look short of goals. Swansea are up to sixth in the table, while Leicester have slipped to 17th.

Liverpool are languishing down in seventh and continue to be frustrated by their struggles to score. Their latest woes came in the weekend's 0-0 draw with Hull, after which many of the headlines were taken by Mario Balotelli's continuing goal drought. It is worrying times for Liverpool fans as they have won only four of nine game so far and have slipped nine points behind Chelsea. Hull are going well in 10th position and Steve Bruce will be over-joyed to have taken successive points at the Emirates and Anfield. The Tigers even had the better chances to win the game towards the end.

There are also big issues at Tottenham as they succumbed to a 2-1 home defeat to struggling Newcastle on Sunday. Spurs have won only one in seven and, after taking the lead through Emmanuel Adebayor, many fans would have expected an easy victory. But second half goals from Sammy Ameobi - which came seconds after the restart - and Ayoze Perez gave Newcastle a turnaround three points. Large sections of Spurs fans have been left frustrated by a lack of fight from their players and this isn't how many would have expected the Mauricio Pochettino era to have begun at White Hart Lane.

Burnley are still without a win and now sit bottom of the Premier League after Everton easily beat them 3-1 at Turf Moor. Samuel Eto'o scored twice and Romelu Lukaku got one as Everton continue to recover from their poor start and climb into the top ten of the Premier League. It is worrying times for Burnley as they look a bit out of their depth in the Premier League. Despite Danny Ings' strike on Sunday, they still look woefully short of goals.

While Burnley desperately seek goals, West Brom have a hot striker at the moment. Saido Berahino got his sixth in five games in injury-time to rescue West Brom a point in a 2-2 draw at the Hawthorns. Palace had been 2-0 up at half-time and Neil Warnock will rue their second half capitulation, as they were impressive in the first half. The Baggies showed fight to get back into it and the introduction of Victor Anichebe breathed new life into them, allowing that second half comeback that was capped off by Berahino from the spot after Anichebe had been fouled by Mile Jedinak in the box.

QPR lifted themselves off the bottom of the Premier League as two Charlie Austin goals secured a 2-0 victory over Aston Villa on Monday night. Harry Redknapp will hope this victory can inspire a resurgence for the Hoops, but it is really worrying times at Villa. Paul Lambert's team have now lost five games in a row and have not scored a goal during those matches. After a promising start for Villa, their season is starting to unravel and they have dropped to 15th, leading fans to worry about the prospects of a third consecutive relegation battle.

Mario Balotelli set for Serie A return?

Super Mario has been linked with a Napoli move this morning

Could the Mario Balotelli experiment be over before it is ever really gotten started? Reports today are linking the Liverpool striker with a move to Napoli.

Mario Balotelli could be set for a speedy exit from Liverpool with Napoli reportedly looking to make a bid for the forward in January.

The striker returned to England in August after a spell at AC Milan but has so far failed to score in the Premier League and his lacklustre performances have led to widespread speculation about his future.

Napoli, who themselves have struggled to find their rhythm so far this term, are now being linked with giving him an exit route and the Metro are suggesting a fee of around 10million would be enough to tempt the Reds to sell.

Moving on and Jay Rodriguez has once again been linked with a move to Tottenham where his former Southampton boss Mauricio Pochettino appears to be struggling to find a regular source of goals.

Rodriguez previously looked a contender for a place at last summer's World Cup, only for a serious knee injury to curtail his hopes and although he is still to return to the action, the Daily Telegraph says Spurs are keen to try and sign him in January.

Bet 10 Get 30 with Betfair Plus Money Back if you Lose

To Tottenham's North London rivals and Arsenal are now the favourites to sign Mats Hummels from Borussia Dortmund according to the Daily Star.

The World Cup winner has been regularly linked with a potential switch to Manchester United but with the Red Devils apparently favouring a move for Ezequiel Garay, the Gunners could swoop for the defender in January.

Another player on Arsenal's radar is Marseille forward Andre-Pierre Gignac who the Daily Mirror says is looking to leave France, although Newcastle are also being suggested as a possible destination.

Looking north of the border and Celtic boss Ronny Deila is keen to seal a permanent move for on loan forward John Guidetti, according to the Herald.

The Swede has failed to make an impact during his time at parent club Manchester City, spending the majority of the last few seasons out on loan and after a good start to life at Parkhead, Deila is now hoping the Bhoys can tempt him to agree a full-time move away from the Etihad.

Finally and Espanyol goalkeeper Kiko Casilla has reportedly been the subject of a bid from Liverpool as Brendan Rodgers continues to search for competition for Simon Mignolet.

Casilla's form for the Catalan side has recently earned him a call-up to the Spain squad and the Metro says the Reds have now identified him as one of their main targets for January.