среда, 29 октября 2014 г.

Premier League Review - Chelsea stay top, QPR off the bottom

Charlie Austin grabbed a brace on Monday night

Chelsea dropped two points whilst Charlie Austin scored twice. We round-up the weekend action in the Premier League.

Chelsea continue to top the Premier League after nine games and now Southampton sit second after Manchester City lost ground.

The big game of the weekend came on Sunday as Manchester United produced a dramatic finale to snatch a late 1-1 draw with Chelsea. It was a case of the master versus the apprentice in the dug-outs as old friends Louis van Gaal and Jose Mourinho faced off, but the Blues boss is likely to see this as two points dropped.

Chelsea went ahead through Didier Drogba's first Premier League goal since his return, but the big question has to be why was the tiny Rafael marking Drogba on corners? United continue to look all-over-the-place in defence and were thankful to Robin van Persie for rescuing a point. After Branislav Ivanovic was shown a second yellow card, Thibaut Courtois produced a brilliant save from Marouane Fellaini but Van Persie was on hand to smash in the rebound. It sparked massive celebrations around Old Trafford but this result does little to mask over the frailties in Van Gaal's side. Mourinho will be frustrated, but Chelsea still sit four points clear at the top of the table.

Southampton continued their fantastic start to the season to claim second place after a Sadio Mane goal secured all three points in a 1-0 victory over Stoke. It was a fourth consecutive win at St Mary's for the Saints as Ronald Koeman's revolution on the South Coast continues. Southampton were full of confidence and should have scored more as they were in control throughout the game - it is currently exciting times on the South Coast for Saints' fans.

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Defending champions Manchester City slip to third after they went down to a 2-1 defeat to West Ham, who are now only a place behind City. Manuel Pellegrini's side have struggled to match the performances of last season and looked jaded for periods in a lacklustre performance at Upton Park. Goals from Morgan Amalfitano and Diafra Sakho - who has now scored in six straight league games - gave the Hammers a memorable victory. Sam Allardyce's troops are revitalised this season and look really dangerous going forward. The manager has added quality in all the right areas and the West Ham fans are now reaping the rewards. City can count themselves fortunate that Man United did them a favour to limit Chelsea to only one point on Sunday. As it is, City are six points behind the leaders and need to improve dramatically to hold onto Chelsea's coat-tails.

Arsenal are three points behind City in fifth after they heaped more problems on Sunderland's Gus Poyet with a 2-0 win at the Stadium of Light. After last week's 8-0 embarrassment at Southampton, the Black Cats could have done with a pick-me-up. But a terrible mistake from Wes Brown gifted Alexis Sanchez the first of his two goals. A Vito Mannone-error allowed the Chilean international his second late on. In truth, Arsenal didn't boss this game and were thankful in the end to two big errors to give them both goals. Arsene Wenger's side didn't really create many great chances and will be relieved to return to North London with three points. For Sunderland, it is now important to cut out such dreadful errors if they are to climb out of the bottom three.

Wilfried Bony struck twice to end Swansea's five-game run without a win as they beat Leicester 2-0 at the Liberty Stadium. While it was a relief to Garry Monk to finally get a win, it is troubling times for Nigel Pearson. Leicester, after starting the season in good form, are now without a win in four and they look short of goals. Swansea are up to sixth in the table, while Leicester have slipped to 17th.

Liverpool are languishing down in seventh and continue to be frustrated by their struggles to score. Their latest woes came in the weekend's 0-0 draw with Hull, after which many of the headlines were taken by Mario Balotelli's continuing goal drought. It is worrying times for Liverpool fans as they have won only four of nine game so far and have slipped nine points behind Chelsea. Hull are going well in 10th position and Steve Bruce will be over-joyed to have taken successive points at the Emirates and Anfield. The Tigers even had the better chances to win the game towards the end.

There are also big issues at Tottenham as they succumbed to a 2-1 home defeat to struggling Newcastle on Sunday. Spurs have won only one in seven and, after taking the lead through Emmanuel Adebayor, many fans would have expected an easy victory. But second half goals from Sammy Ameobi - which came seconds after the restart - and Ayoze Perez gave Newcastle a turnaround three points. Large sections of Spurs fans have been left frustrated by a lack of fight from their players and this isn't how many would have expected the Mauricio Pochettino era to have begun at White Hart Lane.

Burnley are still without a win and now sit bottom of the Premier League after Everton easily beat them 3-1 at Turf Moor. Samuel Eto'o scored twice and Romelu Lukaku got one as Everton continue to recover from their poor start and climb into the top ten of the Premier League. It is worrying times for Burnley as they look a bit out of their depth in the Premier League. Despite Danny Ings' strike on Sunday, they still look woefully short of goals.

While Burnley desperately seek goals, West Brom have a hot striker at the moment. Saido Berahino got his sixth in five games in injury-time to rescue West Brom a point in a 2-2 draw at the Hawthorns. Palace had been 2-0 up at half-time and Neil Warnock will rue their second half capitulation, as they were impressive in the first half. The Baggies showed fight to get back into it and the introduction of Victor Anichebe breathed new life into them, allowing that second half comeback that was capped off by Berahino from the spot after Anichebe had been fouled by Mile Jedinak in the box.

QPR lifted themselves off the bottom of the Premier League as two Charlie Austin goals secured a 2-0 victory over Aston Villa on Monday night. Harry Redknapp will hope this victory can inspire a resurgence for the Hoops, but it is really worrying times at Villa. Paul Lambert's team have now lost five games in a row and have not scored a goal during those matches. After a promising start for Villa, their season is starting to unravel and they have dropped to 15th, leading fans to worry about the prospects of a third consecutive relegation battle.

Mario Balotelli set for Serie A return?

Super Mario has been linked with a Napoli move this morning

Could the Mario Balotelli experiment be over before it is ever really gotten started? Reports today are linking the Liverpool striker with a move to Napoli.

Mario Balotelli could be set for a speedy exit from Liverpool with Napoli reportedly looking to make a bid for the forward in January.

The striker returned to England in August after a spell at AC Milan but has so far failed to score in the Premier League and his lacklustre performances have led to widespread speculation about his future.

Napoli, who themselves have struggled to find their rhythm so far this term, are now being linked with giving him an exit route and the Metro are suggesting a fee of around 10million would be enough to tempt the Reds to sell.

Moving on and Jay Rodriguez has once again been linked with a move to Tottenham where his former Southampton boss Mauricio Pochettino appears to be struggling to find a regular source of goals.

Rodriguez previously looked a contender for a place at last summer's World Cup, only for a serious knee injury to curtail his hopes and although he is still to return to the action, the Daily Telegraph says Spurs are keen to try and sign him in January.

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To Tottenham's North London rivals and Arsenal are now the favourites to sign Mats Hummels from Borussia Dortmund according to the Daily Star.

The World Cup winner has been regularly linked with a potential switch to Manchester United but with the Red Devils apparently favouring a move for Ezequiel Garay, the Gunners could swoop for the defender in January.

Another player on Arsenal's radar is Marseille forward Andre-Pierre Gignac who the Daily Mirror says is looking to leave France, although Newcastle are also being suggested as a possible destination.

Looking north of the border and Celtic boss Ronny Deila is keen to seal a permanent move for on loan forward John Guidetti, according to the Herald.

The Swede has failed to make an impact during his time at parent club Manchester City, spending the majority of the last few seasons out on loan and after a good start to life at Parkhead, Deila is now hoping the Bhoys can tempt him to agree a full-time move away from the Etihad.

Finally and Espanyol goalkeeper Kiko Casilla has reportedly been the subject of a bid from Liverpool as Brendan Rodgers continues to search for competition for Simon Mignolet.

Casilla's form for the Catalan side has recently earned him a call-up to the Spain squad and the Metro says the Reds have now identified him as one of their main targets for January.

Capital One Cup Tips: Liverpool to hit a scoring rhythm

Philippe Coutinho should be fresh after only featuring for 29 minutes against Hull at the weekend

Michael Lintorn sees an end to 139 minutes of goalless football at Anfield as one of his four Tuesday non-televised tips...

Bournemouth v West Brom
Tuesday, 19:45

Match Odds: Bournemouth 2.486/4, West Brom 3.185/40, The Draw 3.55n/a

Following these clubs has been a lot of fun lately: Bournemouth have won four in a row, firing three past Reading and eight past Birmingham - two former Premier League sides - in their previous two games, while West Brom have contested successive 2-2 draws after a 3-2, 4-0 and 1-2 prior to that. Both teams were involved in third-round ties with over 2.5 goals, so that looks the outstanding bet.

Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.910/11

MK Dons v Sheffield United
Tuesday, 19:45

Match Odds: MK Dons 2.226/5, Sheffield United 3.55/2, The Draw 3.711/4

MK Dons have enjoyed the Capital One Cup this season. You may recall a 4-0 thrashing of some 20-time English champions, sandwiched between 3-1 and 2-0 wins over AFC Wimbledon and Bradford. Sheffield United are unbeaten in five though, winning three straight away matches. Our preference therefore is to swerve the outcome and side with unders, a feature of the last five head-to-heads, three of MK Dons' last four against League One colleagues and the Blades' most recent three.

Recommended Bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.166/5

Fulham v Derby
Tuesday, 20:00

Match Odds: Fulham 2.6413/8, Derby 2.8815/8, The Draw 3.613/5

Derby haven't conceded in three road trips, but there are two reasons to expect that to change: the Rams surrendering their six-game clean sheet streak against Wigan on Saturday and Fulham scoring ten goals in their past four home fixtures as Kit Symons constructs a compelling case to be named permanent manager. The visitors have netted nine in four away themselves, so this should be lively.

Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.728/11

Liverpool v Swansea
Tuesday, 20:00

Match Odds: Liverpool 1.834/5, Swansea 4.84/1, The Draw 4.03/1

Liverpool obtained a long overdue first clean sheet in ten against Hull at the weekend, yet a repeat will be trickier to achieve against a Swansea squad who have already struck twice away to both Man United and Chelsea. Last term's Liverpool v Swansea double header saw the clubs draw 2-2 in Wales and the Reds prevail 4-3 at Anfield. Each of their past three clashes on Merseyside, one of which was in the Capital One Cup two campaigns ago, delivered at least four goals.

Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.784/5

Arsenal linked with West Ham defender and Barca star

Could Pedro be set for Arsenal switch?

Arsenal are looking to boost their defensive options and one name linked yet again is West Ham's Winston Reid.

Arsenal are keen to bolster their options in defence with the signing of Winston Reid from West Ham, according to The Mirror.

It's well known the Gunners are short of options at the back and manager Arsene Wenger has been linked with the likes of Borussia Dortmund's Mats Hummels and Manchester United's Chris Smalling. However Reid has now emerged as a potential target for the north London outfit, with the New Zealand international nearing the end of his deal at Upton Park. With no new contract yet signed, the Hammers might have to let the Kiwi go for a reduced price in January rather than let him leave for free in the summer.

Sticking with Arsenal, the Daily Express has suggested they could make a move for Barcelona attacker Pedro, who is thought to be nearing an end to his spell at the Camp Nou. With the arrival of former Liverpool striker Luis Suarez at the Blaugrana, game time looks like it will be hard to come by for Pedro and that could play into the hands of the Gunners.

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Moving on to news from The Hawthorns and West Brom boss Alan Irvine has admitted he is bracing himself for offers from Premier League rivals for his star striker Saido Berahino in January. Currently the highest English scorer in the Premier League this term, Berahino is attracting plenty of attention according to the Baggies boss but the club are hoping they can do enough to keep hold of the England Under 21 international.

Back to the capital and Tottenham boss Mauricio Pochettino has ruled out any chance of midfielder Paulinho rejoining his former employers Corinthians on loan. Another player struggling for time on the field, it's believed Corinthians are keen on luring the Brazil international back to his homeland on a loan deal. However Pochettino still considers Paulinho an important part of his squad going forward.

Benfica midfielder Enzo Perez is attracting interest ahead of the January transfer window and reports in Spain suggest Valencia are going to win the race to sign the playmaker. Superdeporte suggest Los Che are the frontrunners to sign the 28-year-old, which won't come as good news for both Spurs and Manchester City who are also thought to be keen on signing the Argentine in the New Year.

Football Bet of the Day: Greyhounds and Garnets to deliver a goalfest

Trapani's Matteo Mancosu has been among the goals again

Kevin Hatchard's back to take us around the footballing globe, and he's starting the week in Italy.

Bologna v Trapani
Monday October 27, 19:30

I'll say one thing about Tobias Gourlay, he knows how to make a stylish exit. As he leaves us for another week to grace the vibrant nightspots of Camden Town, we salute him for yesterday's 2.1411/10 winner, as Braga's 2-1 victory over Benfica landed the Over 2.5 Goals bet.

Right then, you're stuck with me for another seven days. Stand up straight, no slouching. We're of to Italy first, and a Serie B clash between high-flying Bologna and Trapani.

Bologna were relegated from Serie A last season after a dismal campaign that saw them collect a measly five wins from their 38 games. Like a gawky teenage boy who loves Pokemon too much, scoring was their biggest problem, with just 28 goals netted over the course of the campaign.

This season the Rossoblu have found goals easier to come by under their new coach Diego Lopez, a Uruguayan who knows Italian football well after playing more than 400 games for Cagliari. Bologna have scored 12 goals in ten games, and they've only failed to hit the net in one of their four home matches. Although this is hardly Real Madrid-style goalscoring, it's a big improvement on last season, and Bologna are third in the standings.

Trapani are fourth and only behind Bologna on goal difference, and they are a walking Overs bet. The Garnets have seen eight of their ten league matches this term feature three goals or more, and on average their games contain 3.5 goals. No team in the division has a higher average of goals per match.

Much of this entertainment is down to Trapani's porous defence, which has shipped 19 goals already, and is statistically the second-worst rearguard in the division. It's just as well that they have such a stellar attack - they have scored at least twice in seven of their ten league outings.

Bologna - or the Greyhounds as they are sometimes known - are spreading their goals around, with eight different players on the scoresheet in just ten games. Trapani's main man on the goalscoring front is 29-year-old Matteo Mancosu, who scored 26 goals in Serie B last term, and has already netted six times in ten games.

Trapani only know one way to play, and I'm expecting goals again as two in-form sides go head-to-head. Overs looks far too big at 2.0811/10, so let's take advantage.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.0811/10

2014 P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 42

Points Returned: 39.86

P/L: -2.14 points

Betfair Ultimate XI: The best of El Clasico

Karim Benzema was Saturday's El Clasico Man of the Match

We bring you the Betfair Ultimate XI, courtesy of the guys at Whoscored.com, from Saturday's top of the table clash between Real Madrid and Barcelona in La Liga...

It was Real Madrid that came out on top in the Clasico this weekend, doing so having come from behind after an early strike from Neymar.

The focus ahead of kick-off concentrated on Luis Enrique's decision to hand Luis Suarez a first start for Barcelona at the earliest opportunity possible; the focus at the final whistle on Carlo Ancelotti's megastars' rapidly improving understanding.

It was the hosts that, after a sluggish start, began to create more chances and get a foothold in the game and by the second half Real Madrid were by far the more threatening side and dominant position-by-position across the pitch.

WhoScored.com show just how Ancelotti's men got the better of a Barcelona side that were not only unbeaten in La Liga going into the game but hadn't conceded a single goal.

Iker Casillas has come in for plenty of criticism for some time now but earned a rating of 7.20 from WhoScored courtesy of four saves to outscore his opposite number Claudio Bravo's three. Among them an impressive point-blank stop from Lionel Messi and a flying save to deny a thunderous Jeremy Mathieu effort either side of half-time.

At right-back Dani Carvajal's superb showing was marred only by a couple of fouls late on, one of which earned a booking. Nevertheless the Spaniard produced four tackles, three interceptions and created two chances for teammates to outscore Dani Alves - one of the more impressive performers for the visitors - with a rating of 7.47.

Another of Barca's stronger players on the day, Javier Mascherano, also missed out after an impressive showing from Real Madrid's centre-back pairing after a relatively shaky start. Sergio Ramos (7.41) made three tackles and completed 96.2% of his pass attempts while Pepe completed seven clearances, along with netting the decisive second goal for the home side with an excellent header, albeit an unmarked one, from a corner.

Marcelo completes the backline having offered a constant attacking outlet from the back throughout, ensuring compatriot Dani Alves was unable to do the same for the visitors. The left-back secured a solid score of 7.19 from WhoScored.com having created more chances than any other player on the pitch (four).

Clasico Best XI.jpg

In a crucial midfield battle it was again the home side's pairing that proved the more effective, with Iniesta and Xavi unable to pick passes at will in the attacking third. That much was down in no small part to Luka Modric, whose work rate was outstanding, completing three tackles and three interceptions to break up play, allowing partner Toni Kroos to instigate Real Madrid's counter attacks from deep, attempting more passes than any teammate (58).

James Rodriguez is certainly settling into his lavish surroundings and earns a place in this XI due to the threat he carried on the break, particularly in the second half. The Colombian picked up the assist for the hosts third but also helped out the impressive Carvajal on the right to produce three tackles.

The one Madrid player failing to make the XI is Isco, despite flashes of real quality from the youngster. Lining up on the left of a front three, Neymar's early influence, netting an excellent opener, ensures there is one Barcelona representative, with the Brazilian earning a WhoScored rating of 7.76 having fired off five shots in total and created two chances.

Despite a somewhat uncharacteristically wasteful match in the final third, Cristiano Ronaldo's importance to carrying Madrid forward on the counter remained pivotal. He played an important role in a superb third on the break and scored from the spot to continue a scoring run of 11 games at the start of the season for his club.

Earning WhoScored.com's man of the match rating with a score of 8.96 was Karim Benzema, who so often plays in the shadow of the aforementioned Portuguese. The Frenchman killed off the game with an excellent finish in the second half having hit the woodwork early in the first but the forward also played his part in linking up Madrid's attacking forays, creating three chances and completing 92.6% of his pass attempts.

All statistics courtesy of WhoScored.com, where you can find yet more stats, including live in-game data and unique player and team ratings.

QPR v Aston Villa: Hoops to extend Villa's goal drought and grab crucial win

Will Rio Ferdinand and co shut out Aston Villa on Monday night?

An intruiging clash between two of the Premier League's most out-of-form and lowest scorig clubs is the Monday Night Football offering this week, and our man Mike Norman believes the home side will record a morale-boosting win...

QPR v Aston Villa
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

QPR

QPR's season to date is almost a mirror image of the last time they were in the Premier League when, with a mid-table looking squad at least on paper, they struggled to win games and were bottom of the table from almost the word go.

In the 2012/13 season QPR had accumulated just three points from their opening eight fixtures, so looking on the bright side at least The Hoops have one more point this time around.

Harry Redknapp's men come into this fixture on the back of what he described as his team's best performance of the season, a 2-3 home loss to Liverpool last Sunday which included two own goals and was their third league defeat on the spin.

While QPR looked threatening in attack against the Reds they looked all at sea at the back and defended very naively in the closing stages suggesting that the experienced Rio Ferdinand - who was an unused substitute last weekend - will be recalled to the starting XI, especially given that Nedum Onuoha is suffering with a slight hamstring problem.

Early team news however has surrounded the possible inclusion of Adel Taarabt who had a public disagreement with his boss over his weight, prompting club chairman Tony Fernandes to issue an apology to fans over their conduct.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa are having a typical Aston Villa-like season; some decent results, signs of promise, but ultimately a poor campaign that is likely to result in the club flirting around the relegation zone.

After a rather misleading start (see Match Odds section) in which Villa took 10 points from their opening four games, Paul Lambert's men have now slipped to 15th in the table following a run of four defeats on the trot, all in which they failed to score a single goal.

Admittedly Villa have had some really tough fixtures of late but they've been comprehensively defeated each time, and the fact remains that they've scored just four league goals this term and just two players - Andreas Weimann and Gabriel Agbonlahor - have found the back of the net in nine league and cup outings.

Arguably Villa's best player this season, Fabian Delph, will be missing for this crunch encounter after dislocating his shoulder in training, though Philippe Senderos should return after missing last week's defeat to Everton with a thigh injury.

Match Odds

QPR are available to back at 2.47/5 to win the game and if they can perform like they did at home to Liverpool last week against a goal-shy Aston Villa then they ought to take all three points.

Redknapp's men have a tough set of fixtures coming up and a win on Monday night seems almost like a must even at this relatively early stage of the season. The Hoops will fancy their chances of winning the midfield battle in the absence of Delph from the opposition, and they have enough in attack to get on the scoresheet. And that might just be enough.

Villa had a tremendous start to the season but even after taking 10 points from their opening four games they still ranked as the worst team in the Premier League for shots on target (just six recorded in four games). What they obviously did well in the first six weeks was defend well and pinch some low-scoring victories.

Lambert has seen his early-season central defensive partnership of Senderos and Ron Vlaar broken up in recent games however and the fact that they've conceded 11 and scored none in their last four matches will surely have dented confidence within the squad.

Villa are available to back at 3.55/2 with the Draw trading at 3.412/5, but on current form - as daft as it sounds given that QPR are bottom of the table - it's hard to make a case for the out-of-form visitors who are clearly struggling to create chances, let alone score them.

An interesting Opta stat tells us that Villa have lost nine of their last 10 Premier League games against London sides. That will do for us.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Villa have scored just four goals this term, QPR six - only Burnley (four) prevent this from being a match-up of the two lowest scoring clubs in English football.

Not surprisingly then Under 2.5 Goals is trading at 1.758/11 but you could possibly argue that those odds are slightly bigger than you might have expected - I fully intended to see a price of around 1.68/13 when visiting this market.

Villa have played some big clubs this season but in the four league and cup games that they played against clubs that didn't finish in last season's top seven, just five goals were scored. And it's a similar story for QPR - 0-1 against Hull, 1-0 against Sunderland, 0-2 against West Ham. Only a 2-2 draw with Stoke bucks the trend of low-scoring games when a 'big club' wasn't involved.

I definitely believe 'Unders' will prevail but I'm interested in ductching a few Correct Score bets to squeeze out a bigger return.

Correct Score

And those scorelines that I'm interested in are the 0-0 - available to back at 9.08/1 - and the 1-0 to QPR, 8.07/1. Dutching these two outcomes will give you a return at odds of 4.216/5.

My gut feeling is that Aston Villa are really low on confidence at present and even with Christian Benteke back in the side following a long injury absence they'll struggle to get anything at Loftus Road in what I'm expecting to be a low-scoring affair.

Recommended Bets
Back QPR to Win @ 2.47/5
Dutch 0-0 and 1-0 Correct Scores @ 4.216/5

Mike's Premier League 2014/15 P/L

Staked: 3pts
Returned: 7.34pts
P/L: + 4.34pts

*based on 1pt per bet, 2pts per best bet

**Mike has previewed only one Premier League game so far this season; Man Utd v QPR in September.

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