Euroleague Basketball Betting

Inconsistent start reflected in the odds

By Charlie Rowing Oct 2, 2013

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Fierce rivals Juventus and AC Milan meet at the Juventus Stadium in week seven of the Serie A calendar. Can Milan get their season back on track after a stuttering start or will Juventus keep up their impressive start?

Inconsistent start for Milan

After finishing third last season the Rossoneri have made an indifferent start to their 2013/14 Serie A campaign – winning, drawing and losing two a-piece of their opening six games – form which doesn’t suggest a title challenge.

The transfer window was arguably one to forget for Milan. They secured the return of the ‘prodigal son’ Kaka from Real Madrid, but with the unpopular arrival of Alessandro Matri from Juventus – the fans protested against his signing, sighting the need for midfield and defensive players – and the sale of cult-hero Kevin-Prince Boateng, there has been a toxic atmosphere building around the San Siro.

Milan have kept a cleansheet in just 28% of their last 14 Serie A games

With mounting discontent at Milan, manager Max Allegri will try to turn his sides’ fortunes around for the trip to Turin despite being without star player Mario Balotelli – the striker is serving a three-match ban after threatening to kill the referee following their defeat to Napoli.

The fans’ concerns over the team appear to be justified as il Diavolo have conceded the most goals (10) in the top half of Serie A thus far. Leaking goals has been an issue for Milan who have kept a cleansheet in just 28% of their last 14 Serie A games.

AC Milan are currently 6.390* on the 1×2 against Juve, which is reflective of their mediocre start and the loss of their talisman for the game.

Juventus grinding out results… a sign of champions?

Apart from their 4-1 win over Lazio, Juventus haven’t started the season in an overly convincing fashion by their usual high standards. Four of their wins have been by a one-goal margin and they conceded first against both Hellas Verona and Chievo Verona. However, they’ve ground out the results and remain undefeated, with their only dropped points a 1-1 draw away to Inter Milan.

Antonio Conte has shown greater trust in his squad this season, rotating his team more than last term. This is shown by the fact that Paul Pogba is the only player to have played every minute of every game this season. Carlos Tevez has made an instant impact since his arrival from Manchester City in the summer and is the Old Lady’s top goalscorer along with Arturo Vidal.

The fact that the team clearly has a winning mentality engrained into them could be an explanation as to why they are currently 1.585* to win this match.

Head-to-head: Juventus vs AC Milan

In 188 games between the two sides Juventus hold the upper hand with 67 wins to AC Milan’s 58, with 63 draws.

Over the last 10 seasons, Juventus enjoy the better home record having recorded five wins in Turin, compared to Milan’s four victories at the San Siro.

Only one of the last six encounters have featured more than 2 goals, this is reflected by the handicap offerings being quite slim for both sides with Juventus at -1 (2.010*) and AC Milan at +1 (1.926*) which suggests a cagey encounter between the two.

However over the past 10 games in Turin there is a 50/50 split between matches that have gone over and under 2 goals. Over 2.5 and 3 goals is 2.000*, whereas Under 2.5 and 3 goals is available at 1.917*.

Only six of the last 20 encounters between the teams has resulted in a draw, with just two in the last 10 played in Turin, the draw is priced at 4.250*.

Interestingly there is a positive correlation between winning the Serie A title and gaining a positive result in Turin for both teams. In 31 seasons that Juventus won the Scudetto they only suffered two losses on home soil. AC Milan in 18 title-winning seasons have only suffered two defeats in Turin.

Click here to see the latest Juventus vs AC Milan odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Inconsistent start reflected in the odds

Inconsistent start reflected in the odds

By Charlie Rowing Oct 2, 2013

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Fierce rivals Juventus and AC Milan meet at the Juventus Stadium in week seven of the Serie A calendar. Can Milan get their season back on track after a stuttering start or will Juventus keep up their impressive start?

Inconsistent start for Milan

After finishing third last season the Rossoneri have made an indifferent start to their 2013/14 Serie A campaign – winning, drawing and losing two a-piece of their opening six games – form which doesn’t suggest a title challenge.

The transfer window was arguably one to forget for Milan. They secured the return of the ‘prodigal son’ Kaka from Real Madrid, but with the unpopular arrival of Alessandro Matri from Juventus – the fans protested against his signing, sighting the need for midfield and defensive players – and the sale of cult-hero Kevin-Prince Boateng, there has been a toxic atmosphere building around the San Siro.

Milan have kept a cleansheet in just 28% of their last 14 Serie A games

With mounting discontent at Milan, manager Max Allegri will try to turn his sides’ fortunes around for the trip to Turin despite being without star player Mario Balotelli – the striker is serving a three-match ban after threatening to kill the referee following their defeat to Napoli.

The fans’ concerns over the team appear to be justified as il Diavolo have conceded the most goals (10) in the top half of Serie A thus far. Leaking goals has been an issue for Milan who have kept a cleansheet in just 28% of their last 14 Serie A games.

AC Milan are currently 6.390* on the 1×2 against Juve, which is reflective of their mediocre start and the loss of their talisman for the game.

Juventus grinding out results… a sign of champions?

Apart from their 4-1 win over Lazio, Juventus haven’t started the season in an overly convincing fashion by their usual high standards. Four of their wins have been by a one-goal margin and they conceded first against both Hellas Verona and Chievo Verona. However, they’ve ground out the results and remain undefeated, with their only dropped points a 1-1 draw away to Inter Milan.

Antonio Conte has shown greater trust in his squad this season, rotating his team more than last term. This is shown by the fact that Paul Pogba is the only player to have played every minute of every game this season. Carlos Tevez has made an instant impact since his arrival from Manchester City in the summer and is the Old Lady’s top goalscorer along with Arturo Vidal.

The fact that the team clearly has a winning mentality engrained into them could be an explanation as to why they are currently 1.585* to win this match.

Head-to-head: Juventus vs AC Milan

In 188 games between the two sides Juventus hold the upper hand with 67 wins to AC Milan’s 58, with 63 draws.

Over the last 10 seasons, Juventus enjoy the better home record having recorded five wins in Turin, compared to Milan’s four victories at the San Siro.

Only one of the last six encounters have featured more than 2 goals, this is reflected by the handicap offerings being quite slim for both sides with Juventus at -1 (2.010*) and AC Milan at +1 (1.926*) which suggests a cagey encounter between the two.

However over the past 10 games in Turin there is a 50/50 split between matches that have gone over and under 2 goals. Over 2.5 and 3 goals is 2.000*, whereas Under 2.5 and 3 goals is available at 1.917*.

Only six of the last 20 encounters between the teams has resulted in a draw, with just two in the last 10 played in Turin, the draw is priced at 4.250*.

Interestingly there is a positive correlation between winning the Serie A title and gaining a positive result in Turin for both teams. In 31 seasons that Juventus won the Scudetto they only suffered two losses on home soil. AC Milan in 18 title-winning seasons have only suffered two defeats in Turin.

Click here to see the latest Juventus vs AC Milan odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Arsenal formidable on the road…and against the handicap

Arsenal formidable on the road…and against the handicap

By Michael Gales Oct 1, 2013

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Arsenal travel to the West Midlands on Sunday to play a West Brom team full of confidence following their 3-2 win at Old Trafford. The Gunners have won their last 8 Premier League away games, but how much value do they offer the punter against the handicap?

Arsenal look invincible on the road. But how long can it last?

What a difference a month makes. The toxic atmosphere that rang around the Emirates after Arsenal suffered an opening 3-1 home defeat to Aston Villa has long disappeared as the Gunners sit two-points clear at the top of the Premier League table – following five straight wins.

In eight trophy-less seasons Arsenal have had a number of opportunities to end that trend but have failed to translate that potential into success. One major flaw in the Gunners’ armoury has been their frailty on the road as they struggled to adapt to smaller pitches, physical opponents, and different teams’ soccer philosophies.

However, not only has this Arsenal team won five games in succession, they have also won their last eight Premier League games away from home. In fact they have won 11 of their last 12 away games in all competitions, with their only failure to win coming in a 1-1 draw against West Brom in the Capital One cup this season.

Is this a sign that Arsenal have shed their lightweight persona and are now more capable of adapting to different situations, therefore giving them a genuine chance of winning silverware?

So with five straight wins in the Premier League is their any value in betting on the Gunners against the handicap?

A look at the Pinnacle Sports EPL handicap table highlights that Arsenal are the most successful team so far this season covering the spread in 83.3% of the games – all but their opening defeat to Aston Villa. Last season they only covered the handicap 42% of the time.

This highlights that Arsenal have performed better than the bookmakers had perceived them to do so far this season. Is this a sign that the Gunners have transformed, is it a bubble that is about to be burst as they regress to the mean, or will expectations change overvaluing them?

Are West Brom overachieving or undervalued?

Despite a poor start to this season – two defeats and two draws – West Brom have won their last two games to climb out of the relegation zone and into tenth place.

Manger Steve Clarke continued the good work previously instated by Roy Hodgson last season as he orchestrated an eighth place finish – their highest ever in the Premier League.

On a limited budget West Brom have overachieved since their return to the Premier League with finishes of 11th and 10th before last season. So has this overachievement been reflected in their performance against the handicap?

Last season they covered the handicap just 47% of the time, which shows they matched expectation fairly closely. So far this season they have covered 67% of their games – including their last three.

Head-to-Head

Tottenham vs. Chelsea: Comparison at White Hart Lane

W.B.A vs Arsenal: Against the spread at The Hawthorns

Date

Covering Team

Handicap

Result

26/12/2002

Push

1

1-2

02/05/2005

Arsenal

-0.75

0-2

15/10/2005

W.B.A

0.25

1-1

03/03/2009

Arsenal

-1

1-3

19/03/2011

W.B.A

0.5

2-2

13/05/2012

Arsenal

-0.75

2-3

06/04/2013

Arsenal

-0.75

1-2

Historically West Brom have performed poorly at home in the Premier League against Arsenal. The Baggies have lost five, won one and drew one of their seven games at the Hawthorns against the Gunners. But how have they performed against the handicap?

Not very well. They have only covered the handicap twice (28%) at the Hawthorns against Arsenal in the Premier League.  However, with Arsenal having played a tough Champions League game in midweek against Napoli, and given the Gunners’ squad is thread-bare, is this an opportunity for bettors to bet against Arsenal on the handicap?

Arsenal are the current -0.5 favourites – the joint-smallest handicap against the Baggies in the Premier League. Is this a reaction to West Brom’s win at Old Trafford, or a sign that the bookmakers consider Arsenal to have been overachieving or if you disagree an opportunity to gain value?

Click here to see the latest handicap odds between Arsenal and West Brom.

*Odds subject to change

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How sudden death baseball differs from regular season MLB

How sudden death baseball differs from regular season MLB

By Gary Wise Sep 30, 2013

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Major League Baseball’s season is a marathon that ends in a sprint. With the 162-game schedule having completed on Sunday, we wanted to prepare you for Monday’s elimination tiebreaker and the Wildcard games to follow with a few thoughts on the past, formatting and stylistic differences that might prove crucial in determining where you’ll place your bets.

Fundamentally different approach

With games everyday during baseball’s regular season, the truth is that even the best teams win just 60% of their games; managers and players must work with an eye on maintenance. We see this influence in players being given days off, superior relief pitchers used sparingly, fielders choosing conservative approaches on difficult plays…all in the name of preservation. That ends now.

On Monday night, the Texas Rangers will play the Tampa Rays in a single game to determine who advances into the American League playoffs. Then, the winner will visit the Cleveland Indians, while the Cincinnati Reds visit the Pittsburgh Pirates, each for a single-game wildcard playoff. The losers of these games are done for the season, while the winners move on to the playoff series against division winners.

With the importance of winning individual games magnified, managers are far more likely to kick conservative choices and player egos to the curb. Where underperforming hitters might be given numerous chances to redeem themselves in the regular season, such liberties will not be taken in the playoffs.

Similarly, a manager will use his entire roster far more often, looking for situational improvements equivalent to only a few percentage points rather than coddling starting player egos. The time for that is over.

Who does this favour? Generally, teams with stronger pitching. Tampa appear well-set up for Texas with 2012 Cy Young winner David Price starting the tiebreaker with a strong bullpen to back him up. Note though that the Tampa bullpen was leaned upon quite heavily this weekend in their season-ending series vs Toronto, a fact that could influence manager Joe Maddon’s decisions. Additionally, while Price is one of the best starting pitchers in MLB, his record against the Rangers and in playoff games leaves something to be desired; In his career against the Rangers, he has a 5.98 ERA over 8 starts, more than a run higher than an average league pitcher. In three post-season starts (sample size warning), he has a 4.66 ERA and hasn’t won a game.

The Wildcard format looks stacked against the Cleveland Indians, who have had a shaky bullpen all season, but as you’ll read, there are other factors at play for them.

The hot hand

Speaking of the Indians, they set a franchise record by winning their final 10 regular season games. As good as they’ve been, it’s only slightly better than their sudden death counterparts; Tampa and Texas have each gone 8-2.

Pittsburgh are definitely the hotter of the NL wild card teams, having gone 7-3 in their last 10 to Cincinnati’s 4-6.

History

The single-game wildcard concept was introduced in 2012, so there’s not a lot of history to draw upon, but Texas are in a remarkably similar situation to a year ago, where they blew a late division lead, then lost the wild card game despite playing at home. Last years other host, the Atlanta Braves, also lost to the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis had gone 1-5 vs Atlanta in the regular season.

Travel

Travel is a non-issue in the National League, where both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are flying from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh. In the American League though, it’s a different story.

Cleveland make a short flight to Minnesota before a couple of days rest, while Texas go from Los Angeles to Arlington to play Monday, while Tampa must fly from Toronto to Arlington (a 4+ hour flight), then to Cleveland (another 3 hours) if they win the tiebreaker. How will the travel affect their chances?

Home Field Advantage

The home team held a 1308-1122 advantage in MLB games during the 2013 season, meaning they had a 53.8 % chance of winning. Some teams have a more-pronounced advantage than others though, due to comfort, fan support, unusual stadium build or other environmental factors. Of course, knowing which teams have a more pronounced home advantage could also be key to your single-game betting. Here’s a look at home and away records for each tiebreaker/wildcard team:

Home & Away records for tiebreaker/wildcard team

Team

Composite

Home

Away

AL Wildcard 1: Cleveland Indians

92-70

51-30

41-40

AL Wildcard 2 tiebreaker: Tampa Rays

91-71

51-30

40-41

AL Wildcard 2 tiebreaker: Texas Rangers

91-71

46-35

45-36

NL Wildcard 1: Pittsburgh Pirates

94-68

50-31

44-37

NL Wildcard 2: Cincinnati Reds

90-72

49-31

41-41

The Reds may be in trouble with their mediocre away record against Pittsburgh’s strong home stats, with the same true of Tampa in the tiebreaker game. When they visit Texas, they’ll have to hope that the Ranger’s unimpressive home record becomes a reality.

Day/Night

Also worth noting is the Rangers and Pirates records at night this season, as we see in the chart below:

Day/Night records

Team

Day record

%

Night record

%

Cleveland

33-20

62%

59-50

54%

Tampa

29-24

55%

62-47

57%

Texas

21-25

46%

70-46

60%

Pittsburgh

30-28

52%

64-40

62%

Cincinnati

34-27

56%

56-45

55%

Tampa and Texas start at 6:07 PM local time Monday, While Pittsburgh/Cincinnati start at 8:07 local time Tuesday. The schedule for the AL wildcard game will become official after the tiebreaker is completed.

Click here for the latest MLB odds

*Odds subject to change

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Penguins favourites for first Stanley Cup win since 2009

Penguins favourites for first Stanley Cup win since 2009

By Michael Gales Sep 30, 2013

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In anticipation of the start of an exciting 2013/14 NHL season which sees realignment to four new divisions we preview the teams that top the Stanley Cup winner’s odds, to see what gives them Stanley Cup winning potential in a season full of change.

2013/14 NHL season: Major format changes

The NHL has gone through a major realignment in the offseason, which sees it going from six divisions to four as the Detroit Red Wings, and Columbus Blue Jackets move east and the Winnipeg Jets move west.

Click here too see how the divisional format and the Sochi Olympics impact on a team’s prospects of Stanley Cup Glory in 2013/14?

Eastern Conference: Metropolitan Division

The Pittsburgh Penguins are offered as Pinnacle Sports’ Stanley Cup 8.120*, Eastern Conference 4.420* and the Metropolitan Division 1.971* favourites.

Last season the Penguins were swept aside by the Boston Bruins in the Eastern Conference finals, but with head coach Dan Bylsma, forward Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang tied down to long-term deals in the offseason, in addition to signing 2009 Cup hero Rob Scuderi from Los Angeles, they are as strong as ever.

It was not that long ago that the New York Rangers were on the fringes of the playoffs, however the Rangers are now offered at 17.740* to win the Stanley Cup. Their new coach Alain Vigneault will be hoping his new system is implemented quickly as they face a tough start to the season – they play their first nine on the road, five of which will take place against Western Conference opposition.

The team most affected for the Stanley Cup by the new format is arguably the Washington Capitals. The Capitals 30.500* had won the Southeast in five of the past six years but they will now face tougher opposition and that is reflected in the division odds.

The big question over the Metropolitan division is how well the Columbus Blue Jackets 72.160* can adapt to life in the East? After years of battling a brutal travel schedule, the Blue Jackets will now play 66% of their games within the Eastern time zone. This should be important, though it could force the Jackets to play a more physical Eastern Conference style.

Eastern Conference: Atlantic Division

The new Atlantic division has seen both of the teams from Florida join the Detroit Red Wings and all other clubs from the previous Northeast Division.

The Boston Bruins finished second in the division last season but fell in the final of the Stanley Cup. Their aim this season will be to go one better as general manager Peter Chiarelli has invested in a number of solid offensive players. With the defence expected to be as solid as ever, they are offered at 3.150* to win the division and third favourites for the Stanley Cup victory.

With the Detroit Red Wings 18.740* moving conference to the East, it is the first time in years they have not been considered a divisional powerhouse. Despite the change set to help them in the long run they may struggle initially as they adapt to life as an Eastern team. With an ageing defensive line, a tougher division could see them out of the playoff picture in April.

Despite surprising many last year by winning the Northeast division, the Montreal Canadiens were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs against the Ottawa Senators. The Canadiens 21.550* are a youthful team and will need to mature quickly if they are to win their 25th Stanley Cup title and first since 1993.

Western Conference: Pacific Division

The new divisional changes see the Edmonton Oilers, Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks now share a division with the three Californian teams and the Phoenix Coyotes. With only 14 teams in the West this season, the playoff race will be as intense as ever.

The Los Angeles Kings 11.320* failed to defend their title last season as they lost to eventual champions the Chicago Blackhawks in the Western Conference final.

However, they are amongst the favourites for the Stanley Cup again this season as they have a talented squad. They struggled in the shortened season last year, so an 82-game schedule should be more beneficial.

Despite the Vancouver Canucks 20.080* having a successful regular season, there was a lot of turmoil amongst the team – goaltender Roberto Luongo is amongst the best in NHL but a question mark remains over how well he will perform after all the drama between him and the team last term.

The Anaheim Ducks overachieved last year as they took advantage of a good start to make the playoffs. They have two world-class players in Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, but the problem will be where the secondary goals come from? With Bobby Ryan also gone, odds of 23.600* are offered on the Ducks winning the Stanley Cup.

Is this the year the Edmonton Oilers finally realise their potential? Their young squad has plenty of talent, and they now have a new coach in Dallas Eakins. They can be backed as fifth favourites for the division at 7.550*, while 24.130* is available if you think they can win their first Stanley Cup since 1990.

Western Conference: Central Division

The realignment resulted in the departure of Detroit and Columbus, which will make the division fiercer, despite it appearing one of the weakest on paper.

Last seasons Stanley Cup winners the Chicago Blackhawks are offered at 8.880* to become the first team since 1998 to defend their title. They are the only team since the 2004-05 season to win the title twice, and they have retained the hub of their talent intact despite the salary cap. If they can avoid a cup hangover from last season, the odds suggest they have a good chance of claiming their third title in five seasons.

After consecutive playoff exits against the LA Kings, the St. Louis Blues will be out to prove they are amongst the Western Conference’s elite. With a number of new additions making the team stronger, they are offered at 12.140* to lift the Cup in 2013-14.

The Dallas Stars have changed so much during the off-season. With a new logo, new general manager, new coach and a host of new additions to their roster, they have genuine postseason aspirations. They are at 66.250* to win the ultimate prize, but are at 15.390* to qualify from the division and put an end to their five-year playoff drought.

The Winnipeg Jets 78.040* have moved west but will need to start winning after their lack of progress since the move from Atlanta in 2011. They came close to the playoffs last season, but will an overreliance on youth hamper their chances of a first playoff appearance since 2007. Can the new division and conference see a change in the Jets’ fortunes?

With the most significant structural realignment to the NHL format for over a decade and the addition of the Winter Olympics, the 2013/14 NHL season offers the bettor an opportunity to capitalise on the uncertainty created and the chance to make a profit.

Click here to see the latest NHL outright odds

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

How will the new format changes and Winter Olympics impact the season?

How will the new format changes and Winter Olympics impact the season?

By Michael Gales Sep 27, 2013

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With the 2013/14 NHL season starting on Tuesday we look at both the new divisional format and the Sochi Olympics to see what impact they will have on the team’s prospects of Stanley Cup Glory.

NHL Divisional Changes, what do they mean and who will it impact?

Before betting on the 2013/14 NHL season there are a number of format changes you will need to understand.

In the NHL’s first realignment since 1998, the season is going from six divisions to four as the Detroit Red Wings and Columbus Blue Jackets move east and the Winnipeg Jets move west. The table below shows the three teams records against their new conferences over five seasons.

Teams’ Record vs. New Conferences (W L D)

Season

Detroit

Columbus

Winnipeg

2011-12

10-7-1

6-9-3

8-9-1

2010-11

12-4-2

11-4-3

6-10-2*

2009-10

9-6-3

8-7-3

8-7-3*

2008-09

12-5-1

6-9-3

8-9-1*

2007-08

7-2-1

6-3-1

5-5-0*

Total

50-24-8

44-26-12

35-39-8

*as the Atlanta Thrashers

The four divisions are named Atlantic, Metropolitan, Central and Pacific. The Atlantic and Metropolitan divisions make up the Eastern Conference and each division has eight teams, while the Central and Pacific divisions make up the Western Conference and have seven teams in each division – which makes it statistically easier to qualify in the West.

The new format ensures that the each team will play each other at least once home and away during the season. The Stanley Cup Playoffs will still consist of 16 teams, eight from each conference, but will be division-based, while a wild-card system has been added.

The top three teams in each division will make up the first 12 teams in the playoffs. The remaining four spots will be filled by the next two highest-placed finishers in each conference -regardless of division – based on regular-season points. Which means it will now be possible for one division to send five teams to the postseason while the other sends just three.

it is statistically easier to qualify in the West

Despite having less travel thanks to the changes in format, the Detroit Red Wings (4.820* to win Atlantic Division) – who have made the playoffs in 22 consecutive seasons – may struggle initially to adapt.

The East conference has generally been viewed as a physical conference and the West has been considered a skating conference. The Red Wings are not a stereotypical Western team and it may take time to adjust.

It leaves bettors deciding whether the bonus of less travel and more time at home outweighs the need to adapt their style? While the move looks like an obvious advantage, could actually threaten the Red Wing’s immediate record of 22 straight playoff appearances as they adapt their style to suit the Western Conference.

What impact will an Olympic year have on the NHL?

With the Olympics approaching in early 2014 bettors should question whether or not Sochi 14 will have a negative impact on participating NHL players – because of the break.

Bettors should ask themselves how much an Olympics will affect a player’s club? Will fatigue affect a player’s ability both mentally and physically and will it lead to more injuries at a key time in the season?

Injuries are part and parcel of Ice Hockey and a player runs the risk of picking up a knock every time he enters the ice. With the possibility of playing seven extra games, the likelihood a player will get injured increases, which could have the potential to damage a team’s chances of competing for the Stanley Cup.

By potentially playing a maximum of seven games, mental fatigue is perhaps more appropriate – as the player has the expectation of a nation rather than a club on his shoulders -, which will affect a players motivation. For instance after representing your country in the Olympics, will a player have the same motivation playing for their franchise? With that said player’s will more than likely be returning when their team is gearing up for a run at the Stanley Cup.

Another aspect to the debate surrounds the players who are not picked to represent their nations. How will the players react going from the intensity of the NHL to training and friendly games for two weeks? Will they then be able to regain the intensity they had prior to the Olympics or will the rest work as a benefit by allowing their bodies time to recover from the grueling season?

So what do the stats suggest?

Daniel Wagner looked at goaltender stats based on the 2009-10 season to see if there was an impact on the save percentages of the goaltenders who participated in the 2010 Olympics.

He found that only four of the 15 goaltenders that went to the 2010 Olympics had higher save percentages post-Olympics than they did pre-Olympics, while the average save percentage has dropped to a negative. Four goaltenders saw there save percentage fall by 20 or more compared to more modest increases from those who improved.

Does this data prove that playing in the Olympics tends to make goaltenders worse upon their return to the NHL? Not exactly as the data is from just one season therefore the sample size may skew the results. Bettors are advised to gather research for the Olympic games since 1998 and for other positions to see if this is a trend that stands the test of time and is not just relative too goaltenders.

Click here to see the best NHL Season futures.

*Odds subject to change

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Master vs. Apprentice: Mourinho takes on AVB

Master vs. Apprentice: Mourinho takes on AVB

By Michael Gales Sep 25, 2013

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Tottenham host Chelsea on Saturday, which sees the Master (Jose Mourinho) go against the Apprentice (AVB) for the first time. However, our EPL handicap table shows it’s actually AVB who has the edge over his old mentor in exceeding handicap expectations this season.

Spurs surpassing expectations this season…so far

Despite the sale of star player Gareth Bale to Real Madrid for a world record 86 million transfer fee in the summer, Spurs have started the season in solid form – four wins and one defeat.

AVB restructured his squad in the summer by replacing seven first team players with a better quality of player – who have appeared to settle well in their North London surroundings.

Tottenham are currently joint-top of the league having scored five and conceded just one – joint best defence in Europe – in their five games this season.

In their five previous games this season Spurs have covered the handicap four times and have only failed once, away against their North London rivals Arsenal in a 1-0 defeat.

Spurs sit joint top of the Pinnacle Sports Handicap table with an 80% record alongside Stoke City and Arsenal. This highlights that Tottenham have surpassed the bookmakers expectations this season.

The ‘Special One’ a victim of past success

The return of Jose Mourinho was hailed as the ‘Special One’ comes home, but so far ‘Jose 2.0′ has not lived up to expectations.

Five games into his return, Chelsea have won their three home games but been less than impressive in two tough games on the road – they go into this game with one defeat (Everton) and one draw (Manchester United).

Tasked with the implementation of a more possession based philosophy, Mourinho has stated his impact will initially be less dramatic that in was in his debut season in 2004/05 when he won the league, as he strives to find his best 11.

Bookmakers could be forgiven for putting this down to another attempt at ‘mind games’, however five games in Chelsea have according to our EPL Handicap table, only covered the spread in two games – at home to Hull and Fulham.

What this shows is that bookmakers have overvalued Chelsea’s strength, especially given they have finished third and sixth in the two previous seasons.

The handicap inflation maybe down to believing the ‘Mourinho’ factor would have an instant impact – like it did in his first spell at Chelsea, Inter and Real Madrid.

Smart bettors will have been fading the Blues, and alert to backing Chelsea to cover the spread when ‘things’ finally click.

Tottenham vs. Chelsea: Comparison at White Hart Lane

Tottenham vs Chelsea: Against the spread at White Hart Lane

Date

Covering Team

Handicap

Result

19/03/2008

Tottenham

0.5

4-4

21/03/2009

Tottenham

0.5

1-0

17/04/2010

Tottenham

0.5

2-1

12/12/2010

Tottenham

0.25

1-1

21/12/2011

Push

0

1-1

20/10/2012

Chelsea

0.25

2-4

Tottenham versus Chelsea has always been a feisty encounter with no love lost between the two London rivals.

The Lilywhites have covered the spread 66% of the time against Chelsea at White hart Lane over the past six seasons, but have failed to cover in the last two seasons – This shows that bookmakers have historically overvalued Chelsea at White Hart Lane, but not most recently.

Interestingly for only the second time in seven seasons there is a level handicap of 0 with Spurs at 1.926* & Chelsea at 2.010*, highlighting that bookmakers are unsure as to which way this game will go. Is this evidence that bookmakers have realised they have been overrating Chelsea, or does it reflect the improvement Spurs have made?

Master vs. the Apprentice

AVB was Mourinho’s assistant at Porto, Chelsea and Inter Milan and the pair have the Porto and Chelsea jobs in common, along with both learning their trade under Bobby Robson. However, their relationship cooled when the Spurs manager decided to forge his own managerial career.

Despite the fact neither adversaries talk to each other, there is still a mutual respect between the two managers.  Mourinho and AVB have never pitted their wits against one another, so the first outing between the Master and the Apprentice will be intriguing, but who will prevail?

Click here for the latest Premier League odds.

*Odds subject to change

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