Timeform UK SmartPlays: Saturday June 1

Compton is fancied to land the last at Epsom.

The Derby is the highlight of the day but our SmartPlays team head to both Musselburgh and Doncaster prior to advising a bet in the last at Epsom...

Jedward looked to be coming to the boil when last seen at Thirsk but he is anything but consistent so we are going to side with Bosun Breese in Musselburgh's 16:30. The eight-year-old landed four handicaps, including one over C&D, last year and was arguably unlucky not to open his account for this term on his penultimate start, finding himself short of room a couple of furlongs from home and conceding first run to eventual winner Steps. It's easy to excuse his subsequent performance at York, as he was probably hindered by being unable to get close to the front in such a competitive scenario, and he ought to be more at home in these calmer waters. 

The Keith Reveley-trained Madrasa caught the eye when last seen at Redcar on Monday and the suspicion is that he can return to winning ways with Paul Hanagan booked to take the ride. The five-year-old typically travels through his races strongly and he did so once more in the aforementioned race, shaping as though his turn was not far away as he kept on from the rear, finishing to good effect but being unable to make up enough ground from a poor position. There is potential for a strong pace in this contest, which would suit Madrasa, and he is expected to go close. 

Our sole selection on Epsom's Derby day card comes in the concluding race, with Compton fancied to go well at a tasty price. Seeking Magic and Gabbiano have to be respected, as do Gandalak and Dr Red Eye, though wide draws look to have compromised the chances of the last mentioned duo, and Compton looked like he was building up to something at York last time and could confirm that impression here. The four-year-old has looked in need of the run on both outings this term but went with distinct promise on the Knavesmire, weakening only in the final furlong, and he is certainly worth chancing here. 

Timeform SmartPlays:
Back Bosun Breese in the 16:30 at Musselburgh
Back Madrasa in the 17:20 at Doncaster
Back Compton in the 17:25 at Epsom 

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Overtaking, incidents and chaos expected in Montreal

Overtaking, incidents and chaos expected in Montreal

By Michael Gales May 31, 2013

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Round seven of the Formula one championship sees the paddock cross the Atlantic to Montreal for the Canadian Grand Prix. History indicates there will be plenty of excitement, overtaking and racing incidents at the street circuit.

Circuit Gilles Villeneuve – Enthralling & chaotic action

The track at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is tough on the tyres and creates plenty of overtaking opportunities. Coupled alongside frequently variable weather, this means the Canadian GP is one of the most exciting and unpredictable races of the year, with a much higher percentage of stoppages, incidents and safety cars.

Cars with good downforce should prosper as the track requires a high-downforce setup to aid stability under braking – the track tests brakes to their limits – and for traction on the corner exit.

Overtaking is encouraged at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Last year saw 47 overtake manoeuvres in a dry race, while history shows that races average 28.30 overtakes. The last three years have an average of 79 overtakes.

The Canadian GP also has a high frequency for driver retirement. Over the past ten Canadian races seven drivers have been disqualified, while there has been an average of 6.7 retirements per race.

Tyres pushed to the limit

The teams will use the supersoft and medium Pirelli tyres, and will face a different challenge than at Monaco two weeks ago.

The Canadian GP is the hardest circuit on the cars’ brakes. With heavy braking areas and traction required to power out of the slow and medium corners, the tyres face a heavy demand.

Because it’s a street circuit, the surface has low-grip, causing cars to slide which increased tyre-wear. Knowing how to manage the tyres is crucial, while the demands of the track will almost certainly ensure cars are unable to carry out long stints. This conundrum could mean the teams are likely to split their strategies in order to cover every possibility.

Racing Drama allows for little correlation

After proving there was a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here), we have used the same model to examine the last ten Canadian Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve as a race performance indicator.

It is no surprise – with plenty of overtaking opportunities, and a high frequency for retirements – that the Canadian GP has the weakest correlation (0.37) of the tracks raced at so far this season.

Canada, despite having the weakest correlation thus far, sees 50% of races with a correlation above 0.5, which showcases that qualifying provided a reasonable predictor of a drivers’ race performance. However, just 30% of drivers finishing on pole in the past 10 Canadian GPs have won the race, with the last being Lewis Hamilton in 2010.

Another point worth noting is that because the circuit is semi-permanent, there is a high level of circuit evolution over the weekend, with the lap times getting progressively quicker as more rubber is laid down. This is worth noting if betting on qualifying, as teams last to post a qualifying lap could have the best chance of securing pole position for the race on Sunday.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

Italian MotoGP Preview: Can Rossi Turn Back the Clock?

Rossi should return to the podium this weekend

After a wet race full of surprises a fortnight ago in Le Mans this weekend we're at rider's favourite Mugello in the Italian countryside.  Trent Burton investigates the return of a fans favourite...

At Mugello, Valentino Rossi is worshipped like a god. He may not have won here since 2008 but it matters little to the near hundred thousand fans that have made the trek to Florence. In 2009 his run of seven straight victories at home was ended by Casey Stoner.  2010 saw a practice crash that resulted in a broken leg. Then there were the Ducati years.  It's been a long wait for the faithful. There's every chance the wait will end on Sunday.

Rossi lead for most of today's dry session only to be pipped at the post by his team-mate Jorge Lorenzo. The battle between the two Yamaha riders this weekend has the makings of an absolute classic already. Lorenzo may have won the last two Italian GPs and he's had the wood over Rossi all year having beaten him in every race and qualifying session so far, but this is Mugello and all weekend there have been glimmers of Rossi turning back the clock.

Even the most hardened Rossi fan must admit that the likes of Lorenzo, Dani Pedrosa, Marc Marquez and even Cal Crutchlow are probably above him in the pecking order these days. But this weekend, both on track and off, Rossi has looked like he means business. His body language on the bike has looked aggressive. His lap times very impressive. And the grin and the mind games in the press conference were all there. At the start of the year he said his aim for this season was just to win one race. We all knew as he said it, he meant this one. At 4.47/2 to win it it's not just a punt with the heart for Rossi fans but less an outside one as it looks for everyone else. If he's still in touch with a half a dozen laps to run, get on. Beyond that, I'd suggest he's a lock for the Top 3.

Lorenzo will have more motivation this weekend than most however. Firstly he's coming off a massively disappointing result in Le Mans. Secondly he must stop Pedrosa's current run of form, victor as he is of the last two GPs, before the Hondas get up a head of steam. And then there's the bloke next door. The delight he took today in pipping Rossi at the death, even though it was just practice, was clear. He's focused, quick and loves this circuit as does the Yamaha. Then there's the fact the Italian fans aren't shy about their dislike of Jorge and he bathes in it. He's a 2.6213/8 favourite and it will take all anyone has to stop him this weekend. Yes, Rossi is the fairytale. Yes, Pedrosa is on form. But I just can't go past Jorge on Sunday.

Pedrosa won at Mugello back in 2010 in what was a bit of a shock victory. The same would be said of a win for him this year. The Honda's haven't done well at Mugello in recent years and with the Yamaha boys digging as deep as they can right now it's not about to get any easier.Form is one thing but the bigger picture suggests that the 3.211/5 on offer for Dani to win seems a bit short.

Marquez, brilliant as he is, will probably struggle to factor here. Mugello is a notoriously difficult circuit for rookies and he's already fallen twice so far this weekend, the second time in a massive manner. As I submit this article it's not even certain he will race.  If he does, he's an easy lay for the win and anywhere under 2.0, an easy lay for the podium as well for mine. It's difficult to see him knocking off any of the big three or Crutchlow here.

Mugello is one of, if not the, most incredible motor racing circuits in the world and this weekend has all the ingredients to be a belter. It might even get a little nostalgic...

Recommended Bet

Back Jorge Lorenzo for the win at 2.62

Lions' Tour First Tryscorer Double Your Odds Special!

Place a pre-match Sportsbook First Tryscorer bet on Barbarians v Lions (Live on SS1, Sat 12:30) and if your winning First Tryscorer selection scores another try, we'll double your odds!

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This Saturday sees the official start of the 2013 British and Irish Lions Tour. Warren Gatland's men have travelled to Hong Kong to face an all-star Barbarians side in a warm up clash before the team goes Down Under in search of a first series victory since 1997.

In the absence of injured tour captain Sam Warburton, Gatland has appointed the Lions captain from four years ago , Paul O'Connell, as skipper of the side. O'Connell will be keen to lead the newly formed side to victory and lay down a positive marker for the rest of the tour.

By fielding such a strong side for the official tour opener, the coaching team have signalled their intent to claim an opening victory in Hong Kong; notable inclusions are England's Owen Farrell and an all-Welsh back row of Toby Faletau, Justin Tipuric and Dan Lydiate, as the Lions look to roar to a perfect start.

Bet now on the First Tryscorer and if your winning selection scores another try in the game, we'll double your odds!

Lions' Tour Double Your Odds Special

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If your winning first tryscorer bet scores another try in the match, we'll double your odds. Penalty try rules apply. For example, should the first try of the match be a penalty try, then the next try in the match is deemed the first tryscorer.

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Epsom Dash Preview: A two-pronged attack on the Downs

Who will prevail in the cavalry charge at Epsom?

The Derby and the Coronation Cup may take centre stage at Epsom on Saturday but the Dash is a fantastic spectacle and Matt Gardner attempts to find the winner...

Royal Ascot is likely to see a couple of American raiders, with Animal Kingdom foremost among them, and no doubt the Yanks will be hoping for a reproduction of 2009, when trainer Wesley Ward landed both the Windsor Castle and the Queen Mary with Strike The Tiger and Jealous Again respectively. 

The Americans, or one in particular, enjoyed a notable success on British soil over the Bank Holiday weekend as Colorado Springs "thrill-seeker" (or mentalists as I like to call them) Kenny Rackers won the annual cheese-rolling competition in Gloucester. It is of note that, in an attempt to make the event safer, organisers replaced the customary 8 lb piece of Double Gloucester with a foam equivalent. Even I, as an infrequent spectator, have established that very few contestants manage to catch the cheese yet many, in fact all of them, hurl themselves down a ridiculously steep hill; now that is closing the stable door after the horse has bolted in no uncertain terms. 

Upon viewing a replay of the 2013 renewal, which is highly recommended, I was put in mind of the upcoming Epsom Dash, not because of the many broken limbs (unconfirmed exaggeration) but because of the speed at which the leaders hurtle down the hill. The Epsom five furlong course doesn't boast quite the severity of gradient as Cooper's Hill but it is, in horse racing terms, a remarkably sharp test of out-and-out rapidity.

Unsurprisingly horses with experience of the track are often of most interest to punters, and this punter is not different. Therefore we are going to deal with race in two halves, grouping together the most interesting of those that have tackled the Epsom drag strip before and those haven't, and eventually recommended a bet from each section. 

Experienced Epsom-ers:
Ajjaadd - Improved, at the age of seven, when scoring over C&D last time, beating La Fortunata by a short-head. 4 lb rise incurred for that win seems fair and he is a must for any shortlist. 

Captain Dunne - Has run in this race for the last four years, winning in 2011, and it was encouraging that he managed to perform at a level close to his best on his reappearance despite the majority of his stablemates needing their seasonal returns. 

La Fortunata - Incredibly speedy mare who is yet to finish out of the frame in five starts over C&D, including on seasonal return when narrowly touched off by Ajjaadd. She was carried to the middle of the track by the eventual third that day and it is far from out of the question that she could reverse the form. 

Fair Value - Posted her two best performances when tackling this C&D, which is unlikely to be a coincidence with him possessing an abundance of speed. Goodwood return, when third to Duke of Firenze, likely to have put her spot on for this and it would be folly to dismiss her. 

Of that quartet, the first and second from a race over C&D in April, namely Ajjadd and La Fortunata, make most appeal. La Fortunata receives a 1 lb pull with her adversary and was arguably unlucky not to beat him that day, having been inconvenienced by the wandering Silvanus, and she will clearly well suited to the demands of this race.  

Epsom Newbies:
Duke Of Firenze - A well-bred colt, being the first foal of Fillies' Mile and Coronation Stakes winner Nannina, who has tasted success on three occasions to date. Latest success was a career best and, though he backed that up on the figures at York next time, he never really landed a blow and the suspicion is that he doesn't want a test of speed quite this severe. 

Smoothtalkinrascal - Has improved since joining David O'Meara over the winter, posting three excellent efforts, including wins at both Leicester and York, and it is possible to excuse his sole below-par performance at Hamilton. He is now 9 lb higher than when last contesting a handicap and were the ground to come up quick it would have to be a concern (as yet unraced on anything faster than good). 

Mister Mannanan - Smart performer in his prime, landing a couple of listed races and competing in handicaps off marks in the low 100's. Returned to form on his seasonal reappearance when winning at Beverley prior to shaping better than the bare result at Chester, and it could be worth forgiving his effort at York as things went against him having missed the break. 

Normal Equilibrium - Built on the promise of an unlucky reappearance to win readily at Chester, beating Bispham Green by a length and a half. He remains a sprinter with plenty of potential and is certainly worthy of consideration under a 4 lb penalty. 

The three-year-old's hold a strong hand here with both Smoothtalkingrascal and Normal Equilibrium well up to making an impact in races of this ilk. However their relative inexperience could count against them, particularly at a track of this nature, so we are more interested in the Dandy Nicholls-trained Mister Mannanan, who is well treated if returning to anything like his best and is certainly worth a chance to prove that his York running was all wrong. 

The pincer movement has been used to great effect throughout history, from the Battle of Cannae in 216 BC to right through to World War II, and we are going to bring the manoeuvre into the modern era by employing it here. The two "prongs" that make up our pincer are La Fortunata and Mister Manannan, one with experience at Epsom and one without, both of whom strike as being capable of making a sizeable impact in this race. Clearly much depends upon the draw (don't let Stone Of Folca's success last year from stall two fool you) but at this stage that is impossible to take into account and as ante-post bets they are as good as any.

Recommendations:
Back La Fortunata @22.021/1 
Back Mister Manannan @ 20.019/1

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Sectional Debrief: Kempton, Wednesday 29

Simon Rowlands has been busy taking sectional times

Simon Rowlands has analysed the sectional times from Kempton on Wednesday...

The purpose of this series of debriefs is to educate and not just to tip winners. Which is a good job, as recently identified winners have included a couple (Foxhaven and Hamza) who were anticipated to lose when first put forward. 

It is a reminder that, however good the information, you still need to interpret it correctly and are a hostage to fortune if trying to predict events some way in the future. For instance, Hamza would not have been recommended as one to oppose if it had been known he would end up in a Beverley minor event in which (sectionals confirm) he got a fairly soft lead. 

This week's sectional analysis from Kempton turned up few individual performances of note, but it does add considerable substance to subjective impressions of how the races unfolded, as the headline figures convey. 

Most eye-catching of all is the contrast between the two races at longer distances. The race won by Expert Fighter was run at a crawl and resulted in the fastest finish of the evening, while the one won by Attraction Ticket was run at an overly strong pace and resulted in a slow-motion finish. In both cases, the overall time suffered markedly. 

Spifer shaped best in the former contest, and deserves to be rated the winner by approximately 4 lbs, but such a questionable affair will not necessarily translate elsewhere, so the horse does not make the "to follow" list, for all that he deserves to be respected. Now What came out joint-best on sectionals in the latter contest, having suffered from being up with the pace, and does get added, though may be one to support in the place market, more than the win market, unless dropping to a mark in the 50s. 

Flying Bear (third in the opener on his debut), Duke of Destiny (second to Shahrazad) and Princess Noor all shaped better than the result to varying degrees, but the overall times they recorded were some way from impressive enough to put them up with confidence for next time. 

Desert Strike's overall time was decent, and gets upgraded through sectionals, but it is doubtful whether he will represent a good bet next time on the back of a success and a presumed rise in his mark. Keep an eye, however, on the contest won by Prophets Pride, who just got up against a couple ridden slightly closer to the steady pace than he was. Fourth-placed Living Desert also did well against the pace bias and has the option of returning to maidens. 

One upside of a quiet period for sectionals is that it gave an opportunity to take an overview of the results from April and May at Kempton (the track at which individual sectionals are being taken as a matter of course), including how efficiently individual jockeys tend to ride the course. A similar survey about 10 years ago at Lingfield had Simon Whitworth riding closest to par, while a more wide-ranging one about 5 years ago had Jim Crowley top. 

More data is needed before publishing anything definitive, but Martin Harley comes out top of jockeys with a reasonable number of mounts by a measure involving first-5 finishers, while Kieren Fallon comes out best using data from all finishers. 

To follow: Now What
To oppose: none

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All the Way for Holloway, First Bracelet Winner of 2013 WSOP

PokerNews reporter Chad Holloway earned the first bracelet of the 2013 WSOP early this morning (Photo: PokerNews)

The 2013 World Series of Poker is well underway, with the first events having kicked off on Wednesday. The daily schedule is already starting to get crowded with four different events in action today and five tomorrow. Meanwhile just hours ago the first bracelet of this summer's Series has been won, with the winner being someone very familiar to those us who spend our time covering the tourney circuit, as PokerNews Senior Editor Chad Holloway took down Event No. 1, the $500 Casino Employees No-Limit Hold'em event.

While the record-keeping from three decades ago is somewhat sketchy, an early, initial version of the Casino Employees Event took place from 1983 to 1985 as a $1,000 buy-in tournament then labeled the "Casino Operators" event. Ted Binion (son of Benny) won the tournament in 1983 and 1985, triumphed over a field of 10 players each time, and Sandy Stupak (wife of Bob) bested 14 in 1984.

The event appears to have been discontinued thereafter, then returned in 2000 and has remained part of the schedule ever since. The buy-in has been kept at $500 since its reintroduction, making it the lowest buy-in bracelet event on the schedule. Most years it has appeared as the first event of the WSOP, thereby giving the tournament and its winner special prominence. (Only in 2008 was the Casino Employees Event saved until the very end of the Series.)

In 2000 the event was called the "Dealers Championship," then the next couple of years it was called the "Employee Event" before being permanently changed to the "Casino Employees Event" in 2003. From 2000-2003 it was played as a fixed-limit tournament, then in 2004 became a no-limit hold'em tournament, the format in which it has been played ever since.

Turnouts for the event followed the general trend of rapid growth from 2000 to 2006, starting at just 109 entrants in 2000 and peaking at 1,232 entrants in 2006. Recent years have seen 700-800 players participating, with a jump this year to 898 to create a total prize pool of $404,100.

As the event's name indicates, eligibility to participate is limited to those who are work in some capacity for a casino. As contractors for Caesars Entertainment during the WSOP, PokerNews employees are allowed to play as well, and over the last couple of years several have done so.  

Both Holloway and Josh Cahlik, another PokerNews reporter, were among the 55 players making it to Thursday's second and final day of play in the event, with Cahlik eventually going on to finish 12th for a $5,010 cash.  

Squeezing a large-field tournament into just two days usually means a long second day for the Casino Employees Event, and this year was no exception as it was already past 9 p.m. local time last night when the final table began, with the final nine players all hailing from the United States.

Bobby Rooney enjoyed the chip lead by a wide margin at that point with more than 700,000 chips, nearly 300,000 ahead of Allan Kwong in second position while Holloway sat in third with just under 380,000.

Three eliminations rapidly followed, including Holloway knocking out Michael Trivett in eighth. By then Sean Small -- who made four final tables on the 2012-13 WSOP Circuit this year -- had become a short stack, and soon Holloway eliminated him in sixth place.

Daniel Ellery followed Small to the rail in fifth, and at four-handed Kwong had assumed a large chip lead with Holloway fourth out of four. That group battled on past midnight, with Holloway picking up pots along the way to climb up the counts and into first position. Then Brian Pingel lost the last of his stack to Bobby Rooney and they were down to three.

Three-handed play lasted another hour, then Kwong knocked out Rooney in a hand that saw Rooney all in and at risk with 10c-10h against the Ad-10s of Kwong. All was well for Rooney through the 9c-Kh-3s flop and 8d turn, but the Ac fell on fifth street to pair Kwong's ace, and they were down to two.

Holloway started heads-up play with about a 2-to-1 chip lead over Kwong, but the latter earned a big double-up to seize the advantage in a hand that saw all of the chips go in on a 4s-7d-5h flop. Kwong had Kh-7h for top pair of sevens while Holloway had 6d-5c for a lesser pair and an open-ended straight draw. The 6s came on the turn to give Holloway two pair, but the 4c on the river meant Kwong ended with the best hand.

Over the next hour Holloway chipped back to take the lead, then Kwong took it back, then Holloway grabbed it once again as play continued past 3 a.m. Finally a hand arose that saw Kwong raising from the button and Holloway calling, and a flop coming 5c-Qs-Qd. After Holloway checked, Kwong continued with a bet, then Holloway check-raised. Kwong responded with an all-in shove and Holloway called right away.

Kwong had Ad-Kh, but Holloway had Qh-9s for trip nines. The turn was the 10h, which meant Kwong was looking for a saving jack to make a straight. But the river brought the 2d, and Holloway had won.

"Today a dream of mine came true," tweeted Holloway afterwards as both members of the poker media and many players whom Holloway has covered over the last few years sent him their congratulations. Ironically, he'll be back at several WSOP final tables again starting this weekend, only as a reporter and not a player.

Chatting with my Betfair Poker cohort Matthew Pitt this morning, we discussed how we are both soon heading to the WSOP to join the PokerNews crew and help cover the remainder of the Series. We're both looking forward to getting to Las Vegas where we can congratulate our friend and colleague in person, as well as ask him if he might let us wear his lucky bird shirt at the tables.

2013 WSOP Event No. 1: $1,000 Casino Employees NLHE results:
1st: Chad Holloway -- $84,915
2nd: Allan Kwong -- $52,318
3rd: Robert Rooney -- $33,903
4th: Brian Pingel -- $24,811
5th: Daniel Ellery -- $18,426
6th: Sean Small -- $13,868
7th: Tyrone Smith -- $10,567
8th: Michael Trivett -- $8,146
9th: Hieu Le -- $6,348

In other WSOP news, Event No. 2, the $5,000 No-Limit Hold'em Eight-Handed event, has played down from a starting field of 481 to just 28, with Rafal Michalowski carrying the chip lead into Friday's final day of play. David Vamplew, Tom Marchese, and Joe Serock also occupy spots in the top 10, with Brian Rast, David Peters, Dan Kelly, and David "Doc" Sands among those lurking not far behind.

Meanwhile, Event No. 3, a $1,000 No-Limit Hold'em event that allowed for a single re-entry, got going yesterday as well. After both of the "Day 1" flights played out on Thursday, there were 1,821 entries all told for the event, with 660 players surviving to today's second day of the three-day event. Jerry Payne has the chip lead to start play today with Leo Wolpert, David Singer, Tony Dunst, and Josh Arieh also near the top of the counts.

Today the action heats up even more with the start of Event No. 4, the $1,500 NLHE Six-Handed event. The weekend schedule will be highlighted by the start of the much anticipated "Millionaire Maker" Event No. 6, the $1,500 NLHE event with a guaranteed first prize of $1 million.

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