Trophee Hassan II: Grillo can make his mark at a tasty price

Emiliano Grillo, one of The Punter's picks in Morocco

The European Tour visits Morocco this week for the Trophee Hassan II. What's it going to take to succeed at the Golf du Palais Royal and can young Argentine Emiliano Grillo take to the venue? Steve thinks he can, read his preview here...

Tournament History
Although the Trophee Hassan II has been in existence since 1971 and this will be the 40th staging, it's only been an official European Tour event since 2010. Prior to that, it was a limited field invitation only jolly and form prior to 2010 is largely irrelevant.

Venue
Golf du Palais Royal, Agadir, Morocco.

Course Details
Par 72, 6,844 yards, stroke average in 2012 - 71.70

In addition to the last two renewals of this event, the Golf du Palais Royal also hosted the Moroccan Open six times in the 1990's. It's an undulating, variable Robert Trent Jones design with small greens, surrounded by deep bunkering, running at around 10.5 on the stimpmeter. Some fairways are tree-lined and some exposed and generously wide. Water is in play on five holes.

It's a tricky track, close to the Atlantic Ocean, and it's made decidedly more difficult when the wind blows.
All the players speak highly of the venue and Rhys Davies last year described it as a 'hidden gem', before adding that it was a "special privilege to play there." And here's what England's John Parry has said about it in his blog.

"While many of the holes are tree lined with a parkland feel, there is one stretch which runs along the coast that has dunes and is definitely more links style. Being alongside the Atlantic, the whole course can be exposed to very difficult crosswinds. In such a lovely and spectacular setting it's impossible to do anything but look forward to the week ahead."

Useful Sites
Event Site
Course Details
Tee Times
Weather Forecast
Alternative Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days - 11.00am and 3.30pm on Thursday and Friday, 1.00pm on Saturday and 2.00pm on Sunday

First three winners
2012 - Michael Hoey - 17
2011 - David Horsey -13 (playoff)
2010 - Rhys Davies -25

What will it take to win the Trophee Hassan II?
Although the fairways are fairly generous, if players do stray very wide a lot of trouble awaits. There are five metres of maintained rough (6cm high) either side of the fairways but any wider and they'll encounter unmaintained ground with bushes and ice plants. An accurate game is very much what's required this week.

Greens In regulation was the important stat when the Moroccan Open was played here and of the top-five players in the last two years, only Jaco Van Zyl (ranked 22nd in 2011) didn't rank inside the top-seven for Par 4 performance on the week.

Current form hasn't been at all important in the last two years so don't be afraid to back someone that isn't on the top of their game coming in to the event.

Is there an angle in?
I fancy this venue plays very similar to a number used on the European Tour rota, either past or present. East London, home of the Africa Open, Royal Portrush, which hosted last year's Irish Open, Oitavos Dunes in Portugal, once the home of the now defunct Estoril Open all have form lines tying-in with Golf du Palais Royal and I'm pretty sure Lake Karrinyup, home of the Perth International will prove a great guide in the fullness of time.

Hong Kong Golf Course is another tree-lined tight venue and an even more tenuous link could be Wentworth. Again, it's tree-lined and often wind-affected.

Is there an identikit winner?
Brits have a great record here. They filled the first five places last year and David Horsey and Rhys Davies, along with South African, Jaco Van Zyl, fought out the playoff in 2011.

In-Play Tactics
The draw may prove pivotal. There isn't an awful lot of wind forecast but what there is arrives in the afternoons so an early start on day one when the course will be at its spectacular best, could prove beneficial.

If you're playing in-running, the last hole is tricky and last year it ranked the toughest on the course but the back-nine is definitely easier than the front-nine.

Looking at the 2011 renewal, it looked as though a fast start was required - the first four home were all in the top-ten after day one but last year, Michael Hoey came from a country mile back to win and there may well be opportunities in-running on both Friday and Saturday as players come from behind before Sunday's final round.

Market Leaders
An out-of-form Francesco Molinari heads a tightly-packed market, where a whole bunch of players trading below 50.049/1 have outstanding claims. His brother, Edoardo, Richie Ramsay, Pablo Larrazabal, 2011 winner, David Horsey, and Raphael Jacquelin were all players I was interested in but they were all too short, and, with the exception of my first selection, I've cast my net a bit further afield.

Selections
I backed Gregory Bourdy at the recent Africa Open, at East London, because he had form at both Oitavos Dunes (winner there) and Portrush (led at halfway) and he very nearly obliged. He was going to be left out on account of price but given he tees off nice and early on the back-nine, I felt I ought to have him onside, albeit modesty, from the get-go.

All the players mentioned above, as well as a number of others that are yet to get off the mark on the European Tour, are all considerably shorter than multiple winner Alvaro Quiros and I've felt compelled to take a chance on the Spaniard.

This shouldn't really suit the massive hitter but he handles windy conditions very well and he has bits of form at both Wentworth and the Hong Kong Golf Course, so he can play tight, tree-lined venues. He returned to the fray following wrist surgery just two week ago at the Avantha Masters and there were real signs of progression last week in Malaysia where he made 13 birdies over the last two rounds. It's a bit of a just-in-case wager but with the exception of Francesco Molinari, he's the class-act in the field and he might just contend.

I simply couldn't leave out last year's winner Michael Hoey, who I was lucky enough to be onboard twelve months ago. Like Bourdy, Hoey is also a winner at Oitavos Dunes and considering he trailed by nine after day one and that he won by three, he clearly loves this gaff. He hasn't been in great form this year but he's been preparing nicely in Dubai and he's more than capable of finding form from nowhere.

Of all my picks, Emiliano Grillo, at 130.0129/1, looks the best value. He led in Perth last year before being overhauled by Jason Dufner and Bo Van Pelt and he finished inside the top-ten at the Africa Open too, so he should be suited by this venue. He has a very solid all-round game and I can see him going well this week.

After that, I've chucked in four big-outsiders in Freddie Andersson-Hed, Rhys Davies, John Parry (one of Paul's find Me A 100 Winner picks) and James Morrison.

Selections:
Gregory Bourdy @ 40.039/1
Alvaro Quiros @ 60.059/1
Michael Hoey @ 76.0n/a (Fixed Odds Market)
Emiliano Grillo @ 130.0129/1
Freddie Andersson-Hed @ 130.0129/1
Rhys Davies @ 160.0159/1
John Parry @ 240.0239/1
James Morrison @ 290.0289/1

I'll be back either later today or early tomorrow with my preview for the week's other event - the Shell Houston Open.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

Timeform UK SmartPlays: Tuesday March 26

Hughie Morrison saddles our final SmartPlay

Timeform head to Lingfield and Southwell, bringing you three all-weather selections on Tuesday...

Our first bet comes in the opening race at Lingfield as we take a chance on Ralph Beckett's Day In Day Out getting the better of likely favourite Gabrial The Duke. The selection would have a bit to find with the market leader on the bare form, but he looks capable of better, especially when you consider that he is lightly raced and unexposed. Day In Day Out has had just the two starts in handicap company so far, the first attempt easily forgivable as he was hampered, while his second effort, when finishing second at Kempton in December, indicates that he is on a fair mark. He offers a bit of value and could be capable of overturning Gabrial The Duke.

We have a bit of a wait until our next SmartPlay as we select Wordiness to complete the four-timer in the 16:50 at Lingfield. Brendan Powell's much-improved five-year-old has really hit a good patch of form, winning on his last three outings, including over C&D last time, and he looks capable of notching up another win today. That cosy win 10 days ago means that he has an 8 lb rise in the weights to contend with, but, such was the authority of the success, that should not be enough to prevent him going in again under man-of-the-moment Robert Tart.

We head to Southwell for our last selection as we turn to a trusted fibresand ally in the shape of Hughie Morrison, selecting his contender in the 17:00, Cecily Parsley. Morrison has a fantastic record at Southwell and it is always worth noting when he opts to send a horse to tackle the unique fibresand surface. Cecily Parsley looks likely to benefit from the increased emphasis on stamina, having improved when faced with two miles on the polytrack at Lingfield on his most recent Flat outing, and, with the blinkers applied for the first time, he should be able to produce an improved performance.

Timeform SmartPlays:

Back Day In Day Out @ 4.84/1 in the 14:20 at Lingfield
Back Wordiness @ 1.9420/21 in the 16:50 at Lingfield
Back Cecily Parsley @ 4.77/2 in the 17:00 at Southwell

Get open access to Timeform data for just 2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!

Boxing Betting: Back Britain's erratic Bomber to shade it against Chilemba

Tony Bellew faces Malawian Isaac Chilemba this Saturday

Alex Reid fancies the Tony Bellew-Isaac Chilemba fight to go late and possibly the distance on Saturday night...

With some fighters, you know exactly what you're going to get. Whether it's Wladimir Klitschko coming out cautiously behind a long jab, Bernard Hopkins beginning slow then coming on strong, or Zab Judah starting off fast before falling apart like a clown's car, many boxers have styles or patterns you can set your watch by.

That does not apply to Tony Bellew. The scouse light-heavyweight is wonderfully, maddeningly erratic. Both throughout his career and sometimes in the same fight. This is a fighter who was on the verge of being knocked out by the tough but limited Ovill McKenzie, then less than a year later was giving unbeaten WBO Nathan Cleverly all he could handle in a 12 round war (the debatable majority decision loss is Bellew's only defeat in 20 pro bouts).

Since then, he looked well out of sorts against Edison Miranda before turning up the power late in the fight to stop the shopworn Colombian banger. In his very next fight, he knocked down Argentina's Roberto Bolonti twice in the first three rounds, before settling in for a wide points victory (admittedly, Bellew was bothered by an early cut).

At his best, the 30-year-old Bellew has shown thudding power, a solid chin and the classy jab you'd expect from a triple ABA champion. At his worst, he's looked listless, chinny and short of elite class. So much for the form guide. In this crunch battle against the also once-beaten Malawian Isaac Chilemba (20-1-1 with nine stoppages), it's difficult to know which Bellew will show - Jekyll or Hyde. He could come in doing his best impression of a prime Bob Foster or moving slowly around the ring like a modern-day Bob Arum.

A recent showing on Sky's Ringside offered hope, showing that Bellew has been putting in the hard graft in the gym. Making 175lb has been a struggle for him in the past, but judging by his gruelling preparations, that shouldn't be a problem. What might be more tricky to counter is the 25-year-old Chilemba who looks a well-schooled, well-rounded boxer. Like Bellew, he has a good jab and has shown the guts to comeback and win from two hard knockdowns (against Maxim Vlasov in 2011). He doesn't have Bellew's punch power, but might fancy he has the stamina to maintain a faster work rate against Bellew.

Overall, this looks an incredibly even, intriguing, pick 'em fight and on such occasions, the smallest margins offer an advantage. I can see the fight going the distance - though a knockdown or two on the way wouldn't be a surprise - with perhaps the raucous home support just pulling Bellew over the line (or at least convincing the ever-impartial judges he's done enough).

One additional note: as tasty as the main event is, it's thunder could well be stolen by a cracking undercard fight. Derry Mathews vs. Anthony Crolla is a rematch to the 2012 British fight of the year, won by Matthews via six-round KO in a minor upset. Both boxers are flawed and have lost since, but will know this is make-or-break in terms of their career trajectory. Except it to be explosive again, and Anthony Crolla to have his revenge. He is generally around XX.Xn/a to do so.

Recommended Bet
This will be a dramatic affair, and I think Bellew has what it takes to win, but it'll probably go late. Back The Bomber to win on points @ 2.35/4 (then watch from behind the sofa).

International Reaction: Home wins a must for England

Three Wembley wins should propel England towards Rio

After a telling night in the World Cup qualifying, Christian Crowther rounds up some of the main headlines from across the continent...

England slump to a draw in Montenegro
After a dominant first-half display, Roy Hodgson's England team let a 1-0 half-time lead slip against Montenegro to draw 1-1 in Podgorica, ensuring that the Three Lions still have it all to do if they are to qualify automatically for Brazil. The result leaves England second in Group H, still two points behind the Montenegrins and facing the prospect of needing to win all four remaining games if they are to top the standings. On a positive note for Hodgson's side, three of those games will take place at Wembley, including the return fixture against Montenegro as well as matches against Moldova and Poland.
England are still the favourites to win Group H, available @ 1.511/2

Republic of Ireland teetering after home draw
Giovanni Trapattoni's Ireland side have left themselves a sizeable incline if they are to qualify from Group C. The Boys in Green surrendered a 2-1 half-time lead to let in a sickening 92nd-minute equaliser against Austria, meaning that they stay locked in a three-way tussle behind Germany on eight points with the Austrians and Sweden. However, Sweden now harbour a significant advantage over their rivals having played a game less and already secured a point against runaway leaders Germany in Berlin.
Irish chances of a top-two finish are now rated at 3.1511/5

Spain hit the summit after French victory
World and European champions Spain bounced back from a most uncharacteristic home draw against Finland to triumph 1-0 in Paris over main Group I rivals France, who finished with 10 men after Paul Pogba was sent off on his second international appearance. The result lifts Vicente del Bosque's side back above the French by a point and into pole position to swerve a November play-off having already played their big challengers for Group I superiority twice.
France are now out to 4.57/2 to finish top of Group I

Super Mario firing Italy towards Rio 
Mario Balotelli carried on his superb scoring form for club and country last night by bagging both the goals in a routine 2-0 win for Italy over bottom-placed Malta in Group B. Since starting the qualification process with a 2-2 draw against Bulgaria, the Balotelli-inspired Azzurri have gone on to seize control of the group with four straight wins and now sit pretty at the summit - three points above the second-placed Bulgarians with a game in hand. 
Italy are currently rated at 25.024/1 for World Cup glory in 2014

Grand National 2013: A guide for the reluctant tipster

Seabass (centre) leads jumping the last in the 2012 National

The Grand National is the greatest spectacle in racing, says Keith Melrose, but it can make for the most stressful watch, too. As he gives the Timeform view, he also tries to deal with the dilemma that being a jumps fan in early-April presents.

If you're the only racing fan in your family or circle of friends, this time of year is one fraught with danger. The once-a-year punters are getting ready for their day. Very soon they will be in touch, and they will ask you expectantly: what is going to win the Grand National?

The annoyance of this is that the National is popularly regarded as just about the hardest race on the calendar to pick the winner of. Were you to ask a bookworm to sum up War And Peace in a sentence, say, or tell a wine enthusiast that you'd like advice on the best vines to plant in West Yorkshire, you'd rightly be laughed out of the room. However, we racing fans are expected to crack our toughest puzzle, to the point that a Timeform employee's professional reputation can be on the line if the appointed creature comes down before first Becher's...

Of course, we secretly like to play up the difficulty of the National. In reality, it's a high-end handicap chase in which the only specialist requirement is the ability to both jump and stay a little better than your average chaser. We're helped further by the fact that increasing numbers of those that line up on the day have previous course experience, which takes out much of the guesswork over which horses will be suited by the famous spruce fences.

You don't need to look far among this year's contenders to find horses that have already tackled the course. Among the favourites alone, On His Own, Seabass and Cappa Bleu all ran in the race last year. The last two named filled minor places, yet current market leader On His Own's race ended in more inglorious circumstances with him falling at second Becher's. The facts don't tell the full story, however, as On His Own had jumped extremely well up to then, just behind the leaders at the time, and was instantly earmarked by many for the 2013 renewal. Things have seemingly gone to plan in the meantime, his reappearance in the Boyne Hurdle deliberately delayed with the National in mind and his winning performance in that race pleasing to say the least. On His Own is generally hard to fault and there's a case to be made for him being shorter than his current 10.09/1. If you're getting a few on side in the National, On His Own definitely warrants being among them.

As mentioned above, Seabass and Cappa Bleu made it to the end last year (albeit in very different ways, as we'll come back to) so we don't have to speculate quite so much on their chances of a more fruitful second shot at the National. Seabass was prominent all the way under Katie Walsh, tying up only late in the day to leave the final, thrilling chapter between Neptune Collonges and Sunnyhillboy. Seabass is generally a tough and straightforward type, who jumped very well on the whole that day. Did he do just a little too much too soon? Possibly. But did he do so to the extent that you'd fancy him to win from a 5-lb higher mark this time? Probably not.

Watching Cappa Bleu in the 2012 National was much like watching State of Play in the 2009, 2010 or 2011 editions. Both carried the colours of William Rucker, were trained by Evan Williams and stayed on well to make the places under Paul Moloney; and each time those to back them might well have furrowed their brow at how much their fancy had been left to do. Moloney's habitual deliver-them-late style generally doesn't suit the demands of a Grand National, with the vast majority of those that take a hand in the finish right up with the pace by the time the field jump three out. Last year, Cappa Bleu was still eighth jumping the last, but passed stout stayers like Ballabriggs and Hello Bud on the run-in to make fourth.

In mitigation, Cappa Bleu is generally ridden that way, but if you wanted further evidence that it's a fine balancing act, look at his latest outing at Ascot. Racing from the same mark he'll carry at Aintree, Cappa Bleu travelled best of all in a modestly-run three-mile race, but with a slight error three out he conceded first run to Vino Griego, never really looking like clawing the deficit back but staying on pleasingly nonetheless to draw clear of the remainder, two and a half lengths behind the winner. Vino Griego, of course, has since finishing second in a Cheltenham Festival handicap, so this tale serves to advertise how well-treated Cappa Bleu could be as much as it is one of caution over his rider's patient approach.

If you want a masterclass in how to deliver a horse late, your normal go-to man would be Paul Carberry, whose ride on King John's Castle in the 2008 Grand National must rank among the best not to win the race in recent times. Carberry has a National win to his name (on Bobbyjo in 1999) and is one of the most sought-after bookings for any hopeful. His ride this year is uncertain, but it could Chicago Grey, Carberry's National ride last year who now finds himself top of Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for the 2013 renewal after success in a Grade 2 in Ireland last time.  That improved performance has been put down to a breathing operation, but it was also the biggest move forward in a quietly-creeping campaign that would make even Carberry proud. A few runs in which Chicago Grey shaped as though better for the outing, punctuated with a promising showing in a Cheltenham handicap won by Monbeg Dude (who later won the Welsh National under an exemplary Carberry ride), were signs that he was in fair heart all along, yet he finds himself now 9 lb lower than in last year's National. Chicago Grey's jumping is something of a worry, though he can hardly be blamed for last year's departure (brought down fifth) and may have just about the best man aboard to get him round safely.

There are another couple of Irish-trained challengers worthy of mention at bigger prices. Firstly there's Tofino Bay, who probably won't have escaped the gaze of many, having led for most of the run-in in the four-miler at the Festival before idling and allowing Back In Focus to nab him close home. He's a likeable, sound-jumping front runner, the type that so often does well in the National, while he's still on a tasty price assuming we can take his Cheltenham run at face value. Tofino Bay is reported to be an uncertain runner, owner Gigginstown House Stud seemingly yet to be convinced, so you may want to hold off for now in the hope that odds of 34.033/1 won't contract too much should he ultimately get the go-ahead.

Finally we come to the most eye-catching of our selections, as he's currently available at 44.043/1 in the ante-post betting. Like a few already mentioned, he's trained in Ireland and ran in last year's National (as well as that season's Becher). However, what sets Rare Bob apart is that, despite his price, he's ahead of all but Chicago Grey on the weight-adjusted Timeform ratings at the time of writing.

Rare Bob's campaign so far has had a touch of the Chicago Greys about it, the overriding impression throughout 2012/3 being that he's building up to something. It's not difficult to guess what that something might be given he has been taken to a couple of the self-same races he ran in before last year's National, in which he was brought down at the fifth before himself bringing down none other than Chicago Grey. 

On his previous visit to Aintree, Rare Bob struggled with bottomless conditions when coming home a well-beaten fifth in West End Rocker's Becher, but he jumped very well on the whole and was still in touch turning in before he dropped away. Stamina is unproven, though he's yet to race beyond 25 furlongs on better ground, and with man-of-the-moment Bryan Cooper likely to take the ride, Rare Bob is likely to be much shorter than current odds at some point between now and half past four on National day.

That's about it in terms of the analysis, but what about our original quandry? What should we be telling our loved ones to back in the Grand National? Covering a few of the more popular types, here's a handy guide:

The father- Your lugubrious old man/uncle etc. tends to get more perverse enjoyment from an unlucky loser than actual enjoyment from a never-in-doubt winner. The horse for him is clearly Cappa Bleu: watch him fly home after losing his pitch at second Canal Turn!

The mother/girlfriend- Apologies for the generalisation, but the image of this person, whatever their gender or relationship, should strike with most: they can jump a little when a horse on the TV screen falls; they sometimes ask why their horse "isn't winning" (has been held up); they often like greys. Chicago Grey for them, then, though you might want to explain in advance not to worry: that man Carberry knows precisely what he's doing.

The Uni mate- He'll send you a message on Facebook, precisely 364 days after his last correspondence, ribbing you again about that "nag" you gave him last year. You don't fancy this schtick yet again come April 2014, so have him back On His Own, or Seabass each-way.

The part-timer- This one can exchange pleasantries about 'Saturday' racing, and probably knows the rough outline of the market leaders' profiles. They might even have backed one of the favourites already, so throw them Rare Bob and Tofino Bay to add some piquancy to their ante-post portfolio.

You- This is probably what you're really here for. You've heard the cases made for all of the above, and if you just like the warm glow of satisfaction that comes with backing the National winner then feel free to stick all six in; but for a more conventional two-against-the-field approach, make it Cappa Bleu and Rare Bob, who simply look to be the best value at current prices.

Now, about those vines...

Recommendations:

Back Cappa Bleu @ 16.015/1 & Rare Bob @ 44.043/1 in the Grand National

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US Masters Odds 2013: Tiger on top of the world after Bay Hill stroll

Tiger is strong favourite to win the US Masters ahead of Rory

Mike Norman brings us the latest market changes ahead of the US Masters after Tiger Woods returned to the top of the world rankings with his third victory of the season...

Tiger Woods is in to 4.77/2 favourite to win the first Major of the season - the US Masters - after returning to the top of the world rankings with a smooth success at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Woods led the field by two going into the weather-interrupted final round at Bay Hill, a course where he had won seven times previously, and he never really looked in any danger as he strolled to a two-stroke victory over Justin Rose.

He was matched at a high of 9.08/1 In-Play to win the tournament for an eighth time when he trailed by six shots during the early part of his third round.

The victory is Woods' third win on the PGA Tour this season following victories in the Farmers Insurance Open and the WGC Cadillac Championship - perhaps significantly at venues where he was already a multiple winner - and it moves him to number one in the Official World Golf Ranking for the first time since October 2010.

Woods' rise back to the top of his profession will be all the more satisfactory coming just a week after he publicly announced that he is in a relationship with American skier Lindsey Vonn.

As alluded to above it is now apparent that the 'new' Tiger plays his best golf at venues where he has previously enjoyed success, so that fact that he is a four-time winner at Augusta National will add further confidence to those who have already backed him at prices up to and including 14.013/1.

However, the fact that Woods has failed to don the famous Green Jacket since 2005, nor has he been able to add to his tally of 14 Major titles for nearly five years, has to be a worry.

Tiger's main rivals according to the Betfair markets appear to be the man Woods replaced as world number one - Rory McIlroy (12.011/1) - and three-times Masters champion Phil Mickelson (15.5n/a).

The 2013 US Masters commences on Thursday April 11.

Premier League Top Four Betting: Back Arsenal to overhaul Spurs

Arsenal's run in makes them slight favourites for fourth place

Using stats provided exclusively to Betfair by Opta, Luke Moore casts his eye over the candidates to clinch that all-important last Champions League place...

Chelsea
Points: 55
Current position: 3rd
Games Remaining: 9
Odds to finish in the Top Four: 1.182/11

In pole position to secure a Top Four place in this year's Premier League out of the teams listed, Chelsea under Rafa Benitez look to have put their on-pitch problems behind them. A loss to Man City is the only blip in their last four games, the other three producing decent wins, and with games to come against Sunderland, Southampton, Fulham and Villa, you'd have to fancy the Blues to pick up enough points to grab that Top Four spot back after last season's aberration. Benitez's men currently sit third on 55 points, and the average points total for a fourth place position in the 20 team Premier League era is 68. 13 points from nine games should not be beyond them, and it'll be a huge surprise to see them drop down at this stage.

Tottenham Hotspur
Points: 54
Current position: 4th
Games Remaining: 8
Odds to finish in the Top Four: 2.186/5

Spurs can consider themselves very unlucky to have not been competing in the Champions League this season. They did what was asked of them and finished in the Top Four, but Chelsea winning in Munich meant they had to settle for a Europa League berth. Having looked in good shape for most of this season, they now face arguably the biggest test of the year in trying to hang on in the face of considerable pressure from north London rivals Arsenal. With sparse attacking options and a difficult end of March/April, Spurs must buck the trend of slow finishes to Premier League seasons. Over the course of the league's 20 team lifespan, in April and May they sit just 11th and 10th respectively in the form table. A repeat of that inconsistent form won't be enough to keep the Gunners from overtaking them, and AVB's side also have Europa League exertions to contend with.

A positive can be drawn from Spurs' May fixture list however: A trip to Stoke is bookended by home games against Sunderland and Southampton. 

Arsenal 
Points: 50
Current position: 5th
Games Remaining: 9
Odds to finish in the Top Four: 1.784/5

If you subscribe the tabloid press narrative around Arsenal this year, you'd be forgiven for thinking their season has been a disaster. In actual fact, they're in reasonable shape going into the final stretch; second in the form table behind only Manchester United and four points behind Spurs in fourth with a game in hand, Arsenal also have a tradition of finishing the season strongly. On average, in April Arsenal pick up around 1.91 points per game, which is second only to all-conquering Manchester United. What's more, eight of their last nine games are eminently winnable and the only really tricky tie comes at the end of April in the shape of a home game against Ferguson's men who will have the title sewn up by then. 

All that aside though, Arsenal have looked brittle when the pressure has been on this season and they may not quite have the nerve to survive a nail-biting final run. Although momentum is key, it remains to be seen whether this particular Arsenal side has the mettle to cope.

Everton
Points: 48
Current position: 6th
Games Remaining: 9
Odds to finish in the Top Four: 11.010/1

Rank outsiders for a Top Four finish now after a tremendous start to the season, the feeling around Goodison Park now is now one of what could have been. Moyes and his charges gave themselves more of a chance with a fine win against Man City last week, but a loss to Norwich and three draws against Villa, Southampton and Swansea were really damaging for the Toffees. Despite having a reputation for being strong finishers, Everton's record in May is actually pretty poor - just 1.26 points per game is not Champions League form, and away games against Liverpool and Chelsea in the last month of the season this term mean they're very unlucky to climb the two positions they need.

Recommended Bet

Back Arsenal to finish in the Top Four at 1.784/5