Serie A Betting: Stalemate to suit The Old Lady in battle of top two

Conte will be delighted if his Juve side don't lose v Napoli

Dave Farrar previews this weekend's Serie A action, starting with tonight's top-of-the-table clash versus Napoli and Juventus, a game in which a draw will suit The Old Lady just fine...

Napoli v Juventus

There will be poison in the air at the San Paolo on Friday night as Napoli's fans enjoy 90 minutes of baiting their hated rivals from the north. The last time that I commentated on Napoli v Juve I left the stadium covered in spittle, and all because I was sitting next to the Juve club commentator. It's that kind of game.

There will be many who don't fancy on field fireworks here, given that Napoli have forgotten how to score, and have drawn their last two fixtures by a 0-0 scoreline. That has pretty much handed the title to Juve, and if Antonio Conte's men come away with a win on Friday night, then Juve backers can start celebrating, as they will have retained their title in all but name.

Juventus, though, haven't won here in Serie A since September 2000, and even though Conte (who played that night in 2000) has talked of a positive approach to the game, I think that Juve would be happy with a draw. That result seems like a big runner, given that Napoli have now drawn four of their last six games in Serie A, and is attractively priced at 3.412/5.

Napoli are 2.982/1 for the win, with Juve the favoruites at 2.6413/8, and while I can't make a case for a tired and out of form home side, Juve look a little short for a match that they'll be happy to see out if they are level, say, 20 minutes from time.

Historically, this match is high scoring, with last season's encounter finishing 3-3, and the last time that Napoli v Juve finished under 2.5 goals was in March 1997. Recent statistics suggest that this could be an unders game, but I'm a great believer in the idea that certain fixtures bring certain kinds of performance out of teams, and so I'm happy to recommend Over 2.5 Goals at 2.1211/10.

Given that I feel the game will end in a stalemate, I'll also be having a small stake on 2-2 in the Correct Score market. You should be able to get on at around 17.016/1.

Recommendations
Back Draw @ 3.412/5
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.1211/10
Back 2-2 Correct Score @ 17.016/1

Torino v Palermo

Torino were involved in one of the games of the season last week, when they lost 4-3 in Cagliari, and they were so frustrated at the manner of their last minute defeat that they seem likely to rebound with a win against crisis club Palermo.

Maurizio Zamparini, that headline provider for the ages, gave us another corker last week when he decided to sack Alberto Malesani after just three games in charge, and re-appoint the previous coach Gian Piero Gasperini. It would be sad to see Palermo in Serie B, but that's the way that things are heading, and it's hard to see just how they're going to overhaul the six point deficit which currently separates them from safety.

Torino have won three of their last four home games, against better opposition than this, and given that Palermo have only ever won once at Torino, and that Torino have won 15 of those 19 previous encounters, I think that a price of 2.166/5 for a Torino win represents a bit of value.

Recommendation
Back Torino to win @ 2.166/5

Catania v Inter

Inter's draw in the Derby was one of those throwing things at the telly games: they were comprehensively outplayed and should have been well beaten, but Andrea Stramaccioni's team ended up taking advantage of Milan's profligacy to grab a draw.

One way of looking at Ezequiel Schelotto's late equaliser is that it will give Inter momentum and allow them to carry that into this weekend's fixture. Another is to conclude that Inter remain a skeletal shambles and are worth opposing. I tend to subscribe to the latter theory, and feel that Inter are worth taking on at Catania.

Rolando Maran's team has been a revelation this season, and the Sicilians remain in contention for a Champions League place after winning five of their last seven games. They have won nine out of 13 at home this season, and will move above Inter with a victory on Sunday.

I would have priced up Catania rather shorter than the 2.56/4 which is on offer and will be supporting them this weekend. They have already beaten Lazio, Fiorentina and Roma in Sicily, and even though they lost to both Juve and Milan at home, they can take care of Inter.

Recommendation
Back Catania to win @ 2.56/4

Opta Stats: Swansea v Newcastle

Papiss Cisse has just seen the Opta Stats for Swansea v Newcastle.

The Capital One Cup winners Swansea have to get off their cloud and back to the grind of the Premier League. Newcastle await and Opta have all the statistics.

Swansea won three of their four Premier League games in March last season and boast the best winning record in March of any Premier League side (75%). Michael Laudrup's team are 2.1411/10 to beat Newcastle.

The last two teams to win the League Cup (Liverpool and Birmingham) lost their first league games after lifting the trophy. A Newcastle win is 3.9n/a.

Newcastle have conceded exactly two goals in each of their last three games but have won two of those matches. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 1.855/6.

The Magpies have taken nine points from their last four matches after taking only seven from the previous 13. Newcastle are now a distant 24.023/1 to be relegated. 

Moussa Sissoko has scored three goals in four Premier League appearances. Sissoko is 6.05/1 to score at any time.

The Swans have won none of the 14 games they have fallen behind in this season. Newcastle are 6.86/1 to be winning half-time/full-time.

However, they have managed to avoid defeat in six. Newcastle half-time/the draw full-time is 18.5n/a.

Only Arsenal (7 games) and Swansea (5) have gone on to win all of the matches they have been leading in at half-time. Swansea are 3.55/2 to win half-time/full-time.

The Swans have made more clearances off the line than any other side (9). A Swansea clean sheet is 3.39/4.

Gordon Elliott: My thoughts on Silverlord at Dundalk on Friday

Gordon saddles just one runner at Dundalk this evening

Silverlord represent Cullentra House Stables on the all-weather at Dundalk on Friday evening, we get Gordon Elliott's views on his chances...

19:50 Dundalk - Silverlord

The handicapper has dropped him back to a workable mark of 65 following his last race, where he was only beaten 3 lengths at the finish behind Salam Alaykum at this track. He's now 1lb lower than his last winning OR of 66 so I'd be hopeful of another good run. He seems to like it around here and he acts well on what's a very fair surface. We have the very capable Sam James booked to take the ride, if he can reproduce the form he showed here at the end of last year I'd expect him to put in a good performance.

Betfair Live Video: 'Shteeve' McClaren's exit leaves Twente tactics in double Dutch

How will Twente cope after McClaren's second stint as boss came to a premature end?

This Saturday Betfair Live Video offers up a crucial clash at the top of the Aussie A-League, whilst a struggling FC Twente side host Ajax in Enschede...   

Central Coast Mariners vs Western Sydney Wanderers 
Saturday 08:45

The Bluetongue Stadium has more than enough to whet your appetite this Saturday morning as the top two tussle for top spot in New South Wales. Can the A-League pace setters keep hold of their lead, or will the Sydney new boys extend their winning streak to an unprecedented eight on the spin?

The Mariners could be excused for having thoughts elsewhere this week. With an AFC Champions League goal-less draw midweek against Suwon Bluewings fresh in the players legs and minds, preparation for this weekends fixture has been limited to only a couple of days. 

Lesser teams would struggle to cope with this added pressure going into such a crucial weekend, but with coach Graham Arnold's wealth of big game experience expect him to have his side both mentally and physically prepared for arguably their biggest contest of the season. 

Having led the A-League since match day nine, the Mariners have found themselves stumbling towards the finish line and a possible back-to-back regular season title. Albeit with inconsistent recent away form, their home performances have been exemplary. By taking 28 points from a possible 30 at the Bluetongue Stadium - the Yellow Army will be confident in extending that unbeaten run and in the process bursting the Wanderers bubble that just keeps growing.

In striker Daniel McBreen, the Mariners no doubt have the A-League player of the year so far. Goalless in his last three outings however, a stubborn Wanderers defence will be confident of keeping the danger man out - something they failed to do last time the teams met. 

The big question is whether the travelling Wanderers side will get cold feet when it comes to their biggest day of the season. Faultless in their last seven outing they have been the envy of the on looking league, and with the tightest defence of the campaign they have been well drilled by former Palace centre back Tony Popovic.

The only criticism that would dare to be uttered in the way of the Wanderers is their goal scoring potency. With ten of their fourteen victory's coming by one goal it could be argued that they lack that killer instinct to put teams away, which could be their undoing against stronger outfits.

Although considered overachieving by many, the Wanderers have had a small taste of success so far this season and will be hungry for the main course. A win on Saturday would put them on top of the pile going into the final few weeks of the season, on course for debut season silverware. 

Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 3.55n/a
Back 2-2 @ 16.015/1

FC Twente vs Ajax
Saturday 19:45

The big news in Enschede this week was the departure of Twente boss 'Shteve' McClaren after an unsuccessful return to the Dutch outfit. Resigning from his contract that ran into 2014, the former England boss felt that he could do no more to turn around the current misfortunes of the club that has seen them go winless since mid December. 

Last weekends loss to struggling Heerenveen appeared to be the final straw in terms of McClarens decision, with him jumping before many felt he would be pushed. Luckily for the caretaker boss Alfred Schreuder, the visitors this weekend to De Grolsch Veste are the little known Eredivisie Champions Ajax... nothing like an easy first day on the job.

Twente are in a dire run of form. Despite being joint top at the winter break a stretch of six league games without a win has seen them fall down to fifth spot, and more crucially out of the European places. With Utrecht hot on their heels in sixth, the Twente fans are under no illusions that whoever fills the big boots left by McClaren will have to hit the ground running in pursuit of salvaging this campaign. 

Serbian winger Dusan Tadic has shown glimpses of brilliance in his first season at the club and is a sure bet to be a future Twente superstar at the age of 24. Signing for 7.7million Euros in the summer, he has already chipped in with eleven goals and eleven assists starting every fixture this season. 

Frank de Boer's Ajax will travel to Enschede in unfamiliar circumstances. After being knocked out of the Europa League last Thursday by an un-fancied Steaua Bucharest side, they went on to lose in the semi final of the Dutch cup to a rampant AZ outfit at the Amsterdam Arena. These two shock defeats has put the importance of the Eredivise into perspective for the reigning champions, now more determined than ever to catch a free flowing PSV side that have set the pace all season in blistering fashion. 

Without a proven goal scorer to rely on, this season has looked like a trial and error experiment in the Ajax striker department. With Derk Boerrigter having found the net only three times in 21 starts, the youthful arrogance of 18-year-old striker Viktor Fischer has been implemented into the side successfully seeing him bag six goals already, with a notable brace against rivals Feyenoord. 

Star man Siem de Jong will always be a threat whoever the competition. In his sixth season with the Amsterdammers, the 24-year-old has once again proven his worth to the side putting in countless match winning performances that has seen him gather interest from teams such as Newcastle United. With eight goals and seven assists he is considered an 'untouchable' in the heart of the Ajax midfield and will take some stopping from controlling the game from the centre of the Twente turf. 

Both sides have had a tough and eventful week, but how each one copes is the key to unlocking the secret behind this fixture. The hosts will fancy their chances against a leaky Ajax defence of late, but expect De Boer to rally the troops of the wounded Champions.

Recommended Bet
Back Ajax to win @ 2.3811/8
Back both teams to score @ 1.645/8  

Premier League: Chelsea top four bid in doubt after latest managerial farce

Rafa Benitez's post-match comments caused controversy last night

Rafa Benitez has once again highlighted what an impossible job the Chelsea hotseat is. Luke Moore thinks the ex-Liverpool man was well within his rights to make his feelings known...

In what was actually a quite well-measured, obviously pre-prepared set of statements yesterday Rafa Benitez - already arch-enemy of the Chelsea fans due to some ill-informed yet completely innocuous comments while Liverpool manager - further alienated himself from the Stamford Bridge faithful after last night's FA Cup game against Middlesbrough.

The saddening aspects of all this furore around Benitez's appointment are all but ignored, and they are as follows:

- His original comments as Liverpool manager were, to all intents and purposes, completely harmless. If you take them word-for-word, you'd have to be pretty thin-skinned and altogether quite precious to actually take offence at them. He was managing another club and his remarks were clearly meant to tap into Liverpool's proud passion and history. He was essentially doing his job. Sir Alex Ferguson has been punchier plenty of times before and since on a whole range of subjects.

- Rafa Benitez is actually quite a good manager. He's won lots of pots - two La Ligas and a UEFA Cup with Valencia and a Champions League, an FA Cup and European Super Cup with Liverpool, as well as a second place Premier League finish (how they'd kill for that now). This is no rookie. It's surprising that, while personally he will always divide opinion, there should be no debate about what he has achieved and what he's capable of achieving as a manager. For instance, lots of people find Harry Redknapp disagreeable but there's at least an admission he's quite a good manager. With Benitez, it appears there is a constant open season on his track record, which, as I've already mentioned is actually quite good.

But the most salient point about the comments that Benitez made is that he is of course absolutely right. Chelsea fans need to support the club to help them achieve a top four finish this season and this sideshow, this bedsheet circus, this ship of fools that seeks to undermine the manager at every turn is so counter-productive as to be laughable. 

What the fans should be doing of course is protesting at the regime that fostered this ludicrous environment where every manager walks around with the air of a member of Stalin's cabinet, terrified that at any moment, one wrong comment, result or team selection is going to send them to a sort of footballing gulag where their only gainful employment will be in the company of Adrian Chiles on the ITV sofa, softened by the promise of an oligarch's payoff to forever hold their peace. They can't do this however because they've been dancing with the devil for so long now that they can't up and leave the ballroom when he turns out to have terrible personal hygiene issues. They're in for a penny, in for a pound. Or to be more precise, a billion pounds. 

Supporters can, of course, point to the numerous trophies picked up during the hire-and-fire years, including the European Cup. But this has cost vast amounts of cash, and who knows what Chelsea could have won had Roman's trigger finger been slightly less itchy. For all their money, Chelsea still cannot legitimately call themselves a European super power; they've not yet 'painted the world blue' as Peter Kenyon once famously said.

The ultimate feeling one emerges with from this latest saga in west London though is one of overriding sadness, as the game in this country adds yet another chapter to what is fast becoming a money-soaked Wodehouse farce with Roman Abramovich cast as Lady Constance Keeble and Rafa Benitez just the latest in a long line of unfairly cast Freddie Threepwoods. 

If the tragedy continues at this pace, the smart money would surely be laying Chelsea to finish in the top four at 1.341/3. Arsenal are in decent form (despite yet more misguided press attitudes) having only lost three of their last 19 league games and could pip them to fourth behind Spurs. Maybe, just maybe, if that happens we could persuade Mr Abramovich to leave Blandings for good and hand us our soap opera back. 

After all, under the 'leadership' of the FA and the Premier League, we were doing just fine being hapless without him anyway.

India v Australia Second Test Betting: Get on the hosts

Dhoni is the flavour of the month again

Ed Hawkins has little faith that the tourists can solve their problems against spin when game two starts in Hyderabad in the early hours of Saturday

India v Australia
Start time: 04.00GMT
TV: live on Sky Sports

India
India picked three spinners to expose Australia's inexperience against spin in Chennai and it worked as they recorded a resounding eight-wicket victory inside 90 minutes of the fifth day. Ravi Ashwin, Harbhajan Singh and Ravi Jadeja were the tormentors-in-chief and we can expect more of the same in Deccan. Virat Kohli and MS Dhoni did the hard work with the willow. Billions in India are still drooling over Dhoni's double century. Not so long ago they wanted him sacked. Now he looks as though he will consolidate his position at number six.

Australia
Personnel is not the problem, it's personality. Australia need to learn a new one if they are to succeed in India, and quickly. They are ingenues at playing spin in this part of the world and only intensive brainwashing will do the trick. It was no surprise. In our preview for the first Test we highlighted this weakness and it will not be solved by Test two. There could be improvement later on in the series, though. Michael Clarke, as one would expect given his experience, was immense. Moises Henriques, one of the new breed, showed admirable qualities. But Australia need more from Shane Watson, another senior player. Watson may have to do some bowling if Australia drop a seamer and bring in Xavier Doherty, another spinner.

Innings runs
VVS Laxman, the former India batsman, described the pitch in his home town as "hard, firm and crumbling". In the previous Test played in Hyderabad, New Zealand were beaten soon after tea on the fourth day, with Ashwin and Pragyan Ojha taking 18 of the 20 wickets. That was only one of two tests played at the Rajiv Gandhi stadium. New Zealand appared in both, making 350 first up in a draw in 2010. But they were well defeated last time, being bowled out for 159 and 164. Australia, therefore, could be in trouble first up.

Match odds
When England defeated India a few weeks back, they did it with two spinners. But even if Australia remedy that by pairing Nathan Lyon and Doherty, they may not avoid enbarrassment. It is often forgotten that Indian batsmen can play average spinners - and Lyon and Doherty have more to prove to not be branded as such - in their sleep. It is half the battle. The other half is playing it in your sleep yourselves. Australia have night terrors at the moment. Of their 20 wickets to fall in Chennai, all of them fell to spin. That is extraordinary, even if the pitches are dustier at the end of the Indian season. It means Australia are unbackable. Australia are 4.707/2, India 2.186/5 and the draw is 2.962/1. That is a stonking price about the hosts.

Top India runscorer
Cheteshwar Pujara struck 159 last time out against New Zealand at this venue and although he did not make the headlines in Chennai ground form is always a good pointer. Pujara is 5.104/1. Man of the hour Dhoni is 5.004/1. Sachin Tendulkar is the 4.507/2 favourite.

Top Australia runscorer
Clarke is as skinny a favourite as there has ever been at 3.1511/5. The rests are at fives and sixes. But to be frank we may as well back Clarke for a half-century at around 2.001/1. Be wary of getting with d=David Warner. He has been suffering from finger problems and batted with a splint in Chennai.

Recommended bets
India to win at 2.186/5
Back Michael Clarke to score 50 at 2.001/1 or better

Timeform Daily: Friday, Newbury 14:55

Friday's Race of The Day comes from Newbury

Timeform examine each runner in a class 3 handicap chase at Newbury...

Wessex King put up a career best to score at Ludlow over 2m in April, but both efforts this term have been shockers, which tempers enthusiasm here.

Silver Roque was much improved when winning at Bangor (17f) on debut for new yard in October. Good placed efforts at Aintree and Cheltenham since and appeals as sort to go close after short break.

Oscar Hill was hooded when winning over hurdles at Huntingdon (claimer) and Taunton (seller) in November for Gordon Elliott, but was well-beaten third starting out for this yard over fences at Ludlow last month.

Keki Buku was a useful hurdler who has found frame on 4 of 5 completed starts over fences. Off 16 months and well backed, unseated second in 2m handicap at Sandown a week ago and probably worth another chance.

Heez A Cracker was a fairly useful hurdler for Emma Lavelle in 2010/11 and already at least as good over fences. Not harshly treated here on handicap chasing bow, though yet to win in this sphere, so is opposable.

Sew On Target jumped well when making all to get off mark over fences in 2m Chepstow handicap in January. Excuses when fourth twice since and not discounted if getting his own way up front.

Ballywatt was unfortunate to find one too good all 3 outings in handicaps at the backend of 2012 and respectable effort when third off this mark at Uttoxeter (2m) last month. Likely to remain competitive.

Fiftyonefiftyone was a fairly useful chaser in 2011. This season been disappointing, failing to build on more promising jumpers' bumper run back over fences at Doncaster last time, though mark continues to plummet.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Fiftyonefiftyone
2. Silver Roque
3. Keki Buku

Timeform View: Silver Roque improved for the change of scenery in the autumn and is likely to run well again, while Keki Buku will be a danger to all if his jumping holds up, but it might be worth giving Fiftyonefiftyone one more chance, as he posted a career-best effort in this event 2 years ago from a 10 lb higher mark.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.