New Year's Day 3pm Kick Offs: Potters to frustrate Citizens

Mancini has often struggled to pick a way past Stoke.

The first Opta stats of 2013 are in and Jaymes Monte has picked out his best bets for the non-televised games...

Man City 1.331/3 v Stoke 12.5n/a; The Draw 5.85/1

Stoke hung on to their unbeaten home record with a late equaliser on Saturday, but seek only their second away win of the season when they go to the Etihad this New Year's Day.

Regardless of where they play The Potters' defence is tight. They've conceded only 17 goals this season, the same number as Real Madrid, and just 10 in as many Premier League away games. This won't be as straightforward for Manchester City as the 1.331/3 match odds suggest. 

Four of the last six Premier League meetings between City and Stoke have finished 1-1, including the last two. I like the look of the draw at odds of 5.85/1, and a repeat 1-1 scoreline is 12.011/1.

Swansea 1.635/8 v Aston Villa 6.411/2; The Draw 4.3100/30

Aston Villa will be hoping that the start of the New Year brings the beginning of new fortunes, having ended 2012 by conceding 15 and scoring none in their last three matches.

The omens don't look great for the visitors having failed to win any of their three top-flight away fixtures against the Swans, while Swansea go into the match having lost only two of their last eleven league games.

Villa have scored just seven second half goals, fewer than any other side, while only Tottenham have scored a higher proportion of second half goals than Swansea (69%). Which makes the 4.84/1 about Draw/Swansea in the HT/FT market my best bet here.

Tottenham 1.374/11 v Reading 11.010/1; The Draw 5.49/2

This is one of only five fixtures in Premier League history to see 10+ goals when Tottenham beat Reading 6-4 in December 2007, and the way that the Royals have defended on occasion this season, it would be no surprise to see another goal glut at White Hart Lane this Tuesday.

Reading are the only team to score four goals and lose twice in the Premier League, while they have allowed more shots on goal (114) than any other team this season.

Andre Villas-Boas's men will, however, be without Gareth Bale after he collected his fifth yellow card of the season for simulation and incurs a one-game ban. Spurs have averaged only a point a game in the games Bale has missed this season, compared to 1.94 when he has played.

Maybe the 1.374/11 about a home win is to be avoided. Instead, Over 3.5 goals can be backed at odds of 2.77/4.

West Ham 2.166/5 v Norwich 3.814/5; The Draw 3.55n/a

Following a run of 10 games without defeat, Norwich have now only won one of their last five. Although there can be no shame in recent narrow defeats to Chelsea and Manchester City, in contrasting circumstances.

West Ham, meanwhile, have won only one of their last eight while James Collins and Kevin Nolan miss the game due to suspension leaving Sam Allardyce with limited options.

The Hammers look way too short at odds of 2.166/5 and considering that four of the five Premier League meetings between West Ham and Norwich have ended as draws, two of them 0-0, it makes sense to lay the hosts.

Wigan 6.611/2 v Man Utd 1.68/13; The Draw 4.3100/30

Wigan have lost 14 of their 15 Premier League meetings with Manchester United but did win this fixture 1-0 last season, and come into this game on the back of a morale-boosting 3-0 win at Villa Park.

Given United's incredible scoring record this season (50 goals in 20 games), you'd imagine that The Latics will need to fire if they are to take anything from the game.

Arouna Kon has scored in his last two Premier League appearances, while Robin van Persie has scored 62 goals in his last 75 Premier League appearances since January 2011.

The Wigan forward is a 4.3100/30 chance to score anytime, RVP is 1.84/5 in the same market and it is a 2.546/4 shot that there are more than 3.5 goals scored in the game.

Suggested Bets

Back The Draw @ 5.85/1 in Man City v Stoke
Back Draw/Swansea @ 4.84/1
Lay West Ham to win @ 2.166/5

The Big Match Tactical View: Southampton v Arsenal

Lukas Podolski was excellent in Arsenal's 7-3 win over Newcastle

Michael Cox previews the meeting between Nigel Adkins and Arsene Wenger.

Southampton v Arsenal, New Year's Day, 5:30pm, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: Southampton 5.24/1, Arsenal 1.768/11, The Draw 4.1n/a.

Arsenal thrashed Southampton 6-1 in the reverse fixture in September, but Nigel Adkins' side are unlikely to on the end of a similarly heavy defeat this time around, having improved their shape and structure in recent months.

At the Emirates Southampton were simply far too open - leaving their back four exposed, and being particularly vulnerable to Arsenal's attacks from wide positions. Since then, Southampton's wide players perform their defensive duties a lot more keenly, and subtle shift in the balance of the midfield triangle - with the impressive Jack Cork coming into the side - has made them look better in the centre of the pitch. Recent results have been inconsistent, but they'll give Arsenal a good game here.

Adkins will be tempted to name an unchanged side from the XI that started excellently in the 3-3 draw with Stoke - Southampton were 3-1 up after 36 minutes, and only conceded the equaliser in stoppage time. It was a rather adventurous system, with Jay Rodriguez fielded behind Rickie Lambert, although Adkins will be keen to use Argentine playmaker Gaston Ramirez, who was rested at Stoke. 

With left-sided midfielder Adam Lallana still out, it seems more likely that Rodriguez will move left in place of Guly Do Prado, with Ramirez occupying the central playmaking role. That's a zone Arsenal can be vulnerable in - Mikel Arteta still isn't completely suited to the primary defensive job in midfield, and Ramirez positions himself cleverly, in very advanced positions away from opposition midfielders.

Right-back Nathaniel Clyne is an injury doubt, with Japanese defender Maya Yoshida - more of a centre-back - set to deputise. This would be a potential area of weakness, because Lukas Podolski was excellent in the 7-3 win over Newcastle and also performed well two weeks ago in the win at Reading, while Yoshida was very poor against Arsenal earlier in the season, admittedly on a surprise debut from the bench. Podolski would be worth backing to open the scoring at around 8.07/1 - he's probably better value in this market than in the 'anytime' market, because he's only completed 90 minutes once in his 17 league starts.

Arsenal appear too short at 1.758/11. They may be on a run of four consecutive league victories, but each has been unconvincing - West Brom and Wigan were defeated courtesy of some debatable penalty decisions, while against both Reading and Newcastle, Arsenal looked prone to letting their lead slip. 

However, their win over Newcastle was sealed with a strong second half showing - probably thanks to their rest on Boxing Day - and that relative freshness will still be an advantage in this match. Arsenal have played well in the second half recently, and backing Draw / Arsenal at 5.39/2 looks good.

Arsene Wenger's major decision is which centre-forward to use - Theo Walcott scored a hattrick against Newcastle and should continue there, although he played equally well when moved to the right flank, with Olivier Giroud finding the net as a substitute. Pace seems the best bet against Southampton's backline, which means Walcott and fellow ex-Southampton youth product Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain should continue, with Giroud only a plan B.

Finally, expect few cards in this match - Southampton and Arsenal are the only Premier League sides that average fewer than one booking per game, while Lee Probert shows (marginally) fewer than average yellow cards per match, which makes the Bookings Odds and Total Bookings Pointsmarkets look enticing.

Recommended bets:

Back Podolski to score first at 8.07/1 if Yoshida plays at right-back
Back Draw / Arsenal at 5.39/2 in Half Time / Full Time

Cheltenham 2013: Sir remains on Gold trail

Sir des Champs could run in the Gold Cup.

Connections of Sir Des Champs retain hope he will be a major player in this season's Cheltenham Gold Cup following his staying-on fourth in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown last week...

The Willie Mullins-trained French import is set to return to Leopardstown for the Hennessy Gold Cup in February after he was beaten just three-quarters of a length by Tidal Bay.

Eddie O'Leary, manager for owners Gigginstown House Stud, is keeping his fingers crossed a better round of jumping can see him back on the winning trail.

O'Leary said: "We were happy with how he ran. He obviously made one or two jumping mistakes and if he'd had a clear round he would have been closer.

"I think he got slightly unsighted at one or two fences, which didn't help, but overall we were happy with how he performed.

"All going well, he'll go for the Hennessy next. Let's just hope all goes well in the meantime.

"After the way he ran (in the Lexus), hopefully at this stage he still has a chance in the Gold Cup, if we can sort his jumping out."

Davy Russell partnered Sir Des Champs and admits he could have ridden him closer to the pace.

"It was a good race and we went a good, honest pace the whole way. It was a good trial for what we'll be looking forward to in March," the champion jockey told At The Races.

"He has a lot of stamina and, in hindsight, over the first three fences I maybe should have been a little bit closer and I wouldn't have depended on his jumping as much as I needed to.

"A couple of mistakes just took him out of it, but he showed good heart and stayed on well."

Gigginstown were also represented in the Lexus by the Mouse Morris-trained First Lieutenant, who ran a blinder to finish second.

"It was the best run he's ever had at this time of year. In the past he has never really run well during the winter, he's really a spring horse," said O'Leary.

"This year he seems to be running much better during the winter, so if he can improve in the spring as he has in previous years, we'll be very happy.

"He'll go straight to Cheltenham now, for either the Ryanair or the Gold Cup.

"Mouse likes to run his horses at Christmas and go straight to Cheltenham and they always go there in top condition."

Pandorama was making his first appearance since the 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup having been sidelined with a tendon injury.

Noel Meade's inmate came home seventh of the eight finishers and although there was no recurrence of the old problem, he has suffered a minor setback.

Meade said: "He's pulled a muscle behind and he's quite sore on it just at the moment.

"Paul (Carberry, jockey) thought he just stretched a bit at one of his fences.

"He won't be able to do anything for another week or so and we'll just have to see how he goes.

"Hopefully it's not too major as I'd like him to have his second run back in the Hennessy.

"It's unfortunate, but his front legs seems fine, which is the main thing."

The Shark Hanlon-trained Hidden Cyclone trailed home last of those that finished in the Lexus and is now set to come back in trip.

Hanlon said: "He has come out of the race well, he was just way too free.

"He was half running away with Andrew (McNamara) going down to the start.

"The plan was to settle him fourth or fifth but he couldn't do that as he was too free and he has unsurprisingly got very tired.

"In lesser company you can get away with it, but over three miles, in that ground and at that level, it's going to find you out.

"We'll come back to two and a half (miles) with him now.

"There is a race in Thurles, a race back at Leopardstown and the Red Mills Chase at Gowran.

"We'll stick to two and a half with him for now, until we can get him settled.

"He could go for the Ryanair Chase in Cheltenham, or, if we can get him to settle, we could still think about the Gold Cup."

Get open access to Timeform data for just 2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!

Lee Dixon: Can Pardew lift Magpies for Everton clash?

Will Newcastle take off in 2013?

Everton have enjoyed a better first half of the season than they usually do, while Newcastle have been disappointing so far. Can either team get 2013 off to a winning start? Lee Dixon selects the best bets...

How does a manager pick his team up after they've played consecutive away matches against two top teams, scored six goals and still taken no points? Alan Pardew is a confident man, he some times talks like he's got a cabinet full of Premier League titles, but he's going to have find some inspiring words to rally Newcastle players for this match against Everton.

Both Manchester United and Arsenal have had their problems in defence this season but it still takes a mammoth effort to score three at Old Trafford and the Emirates. Newcastle were right to have a go in those matches but to come away from both fixtures with nothing will have been very disappointing. After a difficult, and at times perplexing first half of the season, the Magpies are looking over their shoulders - they're only three points outside the relegation zone - and they need to start winning fast.

They must take the positives. We know they can score goals and Pardew will have been pleased to see both Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse on the scoresheet over Christmas. I still think that Pardew has assembled a very good squad and he deserves credit for that. Ba might be on his way out of St James' so Cisse needs to find consistency over the coming months. At the back, conceding 11 in their last two is poor, even against United and Arsenal, but I expect Newcastle to tighten up on Tuesday and, long term, I certainly won't be backing them at 11.010/1 to go down.

Everton are a tough nut to crack. They lost their unbeaten home record on Saturday but they were unlucky against an in-form Chelsea team. You might have expected them to struggle this season but, thanks to the goals of Marouane Fellaini and Nikica Jelavic, as well as excellent organisation throughout the team, they've enjoyed their best first-half of the season for many years. 

I spoke to David Moyes last year and, when I asked him why Everton have traditionally made terrible starts to the campaign, he was at a loss to explain. He'd tried everything he said, giving the players a gentle build up, put them through a tough pre-season programme, and nothing seemed to work.

I like David, I think he'd be a brilliant manager to play for, so I'm delighted that his team have done so well this year. The New Year is traditionally when they start to play so if they can maintain their form until May they could be competing for a top four finish.

The Toffees have drawn five away matches so far and I think they can earn another here. Newcastle will be on the floor after their defeats over Christmas and, while Pardew will get them up for this, Everton are more than capable of denying them all three points. I'm quite confident about backing the draw and I also recommend small stakes on 1-1.

Recommended Bets
Back the draw @ 3.45n/a
Back 1-1 @ 7.26/1

The Tactical View: Michael Cox

I disagree with Lee and think there will be plenty of goals. Newcastle have been extremely open in the past couple of matches, conceding 11 in their last two matches, and I worry that they won't protect their defence well enough. Everton love switching the ball from flank to flank before crossing, and I think that will be a profitable approach. Still, Newcastle have attacked well over the Christmas period so I don't want to back an Everton win. Instead, over 3.5 goals looks good at [3.2].

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Everton face a Newcastle side who have conceded 11 goals in their last two games. Everton have only failed to score in one game this season (away at WBA) and both teams have scored in Everton’s last 15 games. Newcastle, despite conceding heavily lately, have also scored in their last seven. I don’t see any reason why this trend for both teams to score won’t continue and while the market is short at [1.65], I wouldn’t want to put anyone off. However, I prefer to back 1-1 @ [7.2], like Lee, and ask for a price of [2.0] on over 2.5 goals to get better value.

Acca Insurance: Football Fivefold

Fancy getting the New Year of to a winning start? Then check out our fivefold offer on matches taking place January 1 and 2.

Place a fivefold on matches taking place on January 1 or 2 and if only one leg lets you down, we'll refund half your stake up to a maximum of 25.

Opt in to take part by clicking here.

Can I take part?

You can take part if your Betfair account is registered in the UK and Ireland. You can only take part using one account. 

What do I need to do?

Place at least /€5 on a fivefold (or above) multiple choosing matches from any English or Scottish football league, Serie A, Bundesliga 1, French Ligue 1, La Liga and Dutch Eredevisie on 29th and 30th December. 

How does the Cashback Special work?

If your multiple has exactly one incorrect result, we will refund half your stake up to a maximum of /€25. If you get two or more results wrong, or your bet wins, you will not receive a credit.
Only your first bet placed counts.

If any of the matches selected as part of your qualifying multiples bet are postponed or abandoned, leaving you with fewer than five active matches during the promotional period, you will not be eligible for this promotion.

When will I be credited?

You will be credited within 72 hours of end of the featured match.

Timeform Daily: Tuesday, Musselburgh 14:45

David Pipe is the trainer of Swing Bowler.

Timeform provide a runner-by-runner guide to a valuable and competitive handicap hurdle at Musselburgh on New Year's day...

Agent Archie was useful on Flat and won first 2 starts over hurdles at this trip. Has struggled in handicaps this term, though, shaping as if amiss at Aintree (17f) back in October. Cheekpieces now tried.

Ingleby Spirit's best efforts over hurdles have come over C&D, winning twice. Fair fourth at Doncaster last month and set to better that back at this track. One to consider.

Jet Master is a free-going sort who improved for the fitting of tongue tie, placed last 5 starts over hurdles (fell on chase bow in between). Doesn't look to have a great deal in hand of handicap mark, though.

Capellanus' best races for Edward O'Grady in Ireland came with headgear fitted and shaped well starting out for new yard over inadequate 2m at Wetherby last month. Will be of more interest over further.

Dontpaytheferryman won 3 times in space of a month over C&D at the start of 2012. Fair run in Wetherby handicap hurdle last month before dropping away on subsequent chase bow with visor back on. Needs more.

Call Back was a bumper winner who took well to hurdling initially, winning at Bangor and Cartmel (17f). Opening mark stiff judged on defeat in Gerry Feilden on return, though.

Arctic Court has been given a chance by the handicapper and hinted at a rival at Cheltenham (17f) last time behind easy winner Dark Lover. Will benefit from a return to 2m+, probably on better ground.

Swing Bowler is a well-bred mare who has made perfect start, the form of latest win in 17f Newton Abbot novice hurdle working out despite her looking shade fortunate. Could make a mockery of opening mark on return.

Ultimate won twice over fences around 2m last season and back to form when fifth over further in handicap hurdle here last month. Return to 2m will suit and looks the pick of yard's 4 runners.

Rumble of Thunder ran respectably in this from 15 lb higher mark 12 months ago and offered more encouragement last time. Test will suit and connections had well-backed winner at Kelso on Saturday. Very interesting.

Amtired won 2m novice hurdle at Wetherby early last season and improved efforts in handicaps after fitted with cheekpieces. Had recent pipe-opener on the AW but needs to improve to defy this mark.

Cool Baranca enjoyed profitable 2012, winning 4 handicap hurdles around this trip and on the Flat here. Well held in stronger company than she usually keeps at Aintree last time, though, and this tough also.

Amok won twice on Flat in France and off the mark in 2m Fakenham novice handicap hurdle in November, left clear last. Up 11 lb and this a lot tougher but still unexposed.

Mason Hindmarsh was a winning juvenile hurdler and successful twice on the level as Flat season ended. Fair effort in 2m handicap here last month and may be that longer trip is what he needs now.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Swing Bowler
2. Rumble of Thunder
3. Ingleby Spirit

Timeform Verdict: A valuable handicap hurdle with Swing Bowler taken to knock her rivals for six on her handicap debut and maintain her unbeaten record. Very much one to follow, an opening mark of 123 could seriously underestimate David Pipe's charge. Rumble of Thunder is an interesting alternative, while course specialist Ingleby Spirit will doubtless be popular.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

Challow Hurdle Result: Taquin ploughs to Challow victory

Jonjo O'Neill: trainer of Taquin de Seuil

Taquin de Seuil justified favouritism to continue Jonjo O'Neill's excellent record in the Challow Hurdle.

Strong in the betting all day, Taquin de Seuil was always travelling strongly under Champion Jockey AP McCoy and looked all over the winner when taking over from long-time leader Ballybough Pat after three out. 

Once shaken up, it briefly looked as though Taquin de Seuil wasn't picking up for pressure, allowing the Paul Nicholls-trained Easter Day a brief look in before he responded, putting a seal on things before the last and eventually running out a nine-length winner. Ballybough Pat plugged on to finish another three and three-quarter lengths back in third.

Clondaw Kaempfer, the Donald McCain-trained second-favourite, was never really travelling in the gruelling conditions and was pulled up quite sharply in the straight by Jason Maguire. 

The winner is now priced at 11.010/1 for the Neptune Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, behind only Irish-trained Pont Alexandre.

Half-price Race Passes with brand new features - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. And get a FREE gift too! Find out more at timeform.com.