пятница, 31 августа 2012 г.

International Racing Festival: Topkapi Trophy heads the Sunday card

William Haggas now trains Master of Hounds.
Timeform's Matt Gardner turns his attention to the second day of the International Racing Festival, featuring both the Topkapi Cup and the Bosphorus Cup...
A field of 11 runners have been declared for the 2012 renewal of the Topkapi Trophy, with four of them being British representatives. Heading the list is Master of Hounds, who ran a career-best on his penultimate start when landing the Group 1 Jebel Hatta at Meydan before finishing eighth in the Dubai World Cup. He has since moved to the William Haggas yard and, if he can return to the sort of form shown in Dubai, he is likely to take plenty of beating here.
Another of note is the Mark Johnston-trained representative Van Ellis, a three-year-old who has won three of his last four starts comprising two handicaps and a listed event. Needless to say this is a step up in grade, but his willing attitude counts for plenty and he could put up a bold showing.
Archbishop, who dead-heated in a Goodwood Group 3 on his latest start, and Red Duke are others to consider, although they are both going to have to improve to challenge Master of Hounds.
Pakal and Indomito will fly the flag for Germany whilst Lucky Bridle looks set to be the sole French representative.
Just six have been declared for the Group 2 Bosphorus Cup, a race staged over 12 furlongs won last year by the James Given-trained Indian Days. Turkish representative Inspector has contested this event for the last four years, finishing first, sixth, eighth and eighth respectively, and is unlikely to be getting much better at the grand old age of eight.
The sole British-trained runner, Retrieve, has form some way in advance of his rivals having finished fourth in a competitive handicap at Goodwood last time and fifth in a particularly strong renewal of the Wolferton Handicap at Royal Ascot earlier in the season.
His main rival is likely to be Flamingo Fantasy, a seven-year-old trained in Germany. Flamingo Fantasy pup up one of his better efforts on his most recent start, when finishing fifth to Joshua Tree in the Group 2 Prix Kergorlay at Deauville, but, in all probability, he will need to improve to trouble Retrieve.
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Weekend Preview: Fashionable genes

Could we clone Sir Michael Stoute? Jamie thinks so!

As racing goes back to some of its roots this weekend, in Turkey, Jamie Lynch looks at the way racing and breeding could be going in future...

Crimeform, Aftertimeform, Timewarp; we've had a few epithets over the years, taken with the grace and good humour with which they weren't delivered, but Timeform does have its uses at times, like these times, the measurement times. In the Kingdom of the undefined, the Go Compare Man is King. Because Timeform has used the same handicapping scale and same handicapping procedures- fine-tuned by technology- since day one, way back in 1948, we feel confident in our ability to provide a guide, through Timeform ratings, of the relative merits of horses over the generations, which is the only means of comparison when a horse like Frankel comes along who's so far ahead of his contemporaries. But there is one horse, or perhaps several horses, who could give Frankel a race: more Frankels.

In Rio de Janeiro, at the 2016 Olympics, cloned horses will be allowed to participate. They're out there already, the result of nurture not nature, created not mated, in the world of eventing and polo. The Federation Equestre Internationale (FEI), the global governors of equestrian sport, last month lifted the ban on clones, reasoning that clones are only ever 98% copies of the original, so that, just like there's no such thing as an exact identical twin, there's no such thing as an exact clone, and that the external factors of environment and raising carry more influence than the material itself.

Understandably, and my instincts say rightly, racing has raised the drawbridge as far as this issue goes. Breeding racehorses is a multi-billion-pound business in its own right, also a way of life for some, as well as a tradition for all, and it has taken centuries of trying and testing, matching one stallion line with another from around the world, to get us to the point we're now at with Frankel: the perfect thoroughbred.

All the same, the possibilities are real and deliciously tantalising. Imagine staging the DNA Derby, made up of the all-time greats, or at least 98% versions of them, to find out once and for all who the Daddy really is. The opposition to Frankel(s) might include, amongst others, Bombardier Gerard, Dancing Knave, Harbringer, Sea Bird III, Facsimilie The Stars, Dubai Mirrornnium, Still Reef and Secretaricopycat.

Why stop at horses? If the science is there for horses, it's there (or nearly there) for humans, meaning we can duplicate some legendary trainers and riders, generating 'new' names such as Repeater Easterby, Tom Imitate and Replica Cumani to do the training and (it gets better I promise) Julie Clone, Frankie Ditto-ri and Mimic Kinane for the riding.

On a more serious point, the danger of cloning is the adverse genetic effect on the breed, making horses all the more inbred, and the gene pool in the sport is very small to begin with, as all thoroughbreds go back to three stallions; the Godolphin Arabian, the Darley Arabian and the Byerley Turk.

As his name suggests, the Byerley Turk has his origins in Turkey, which, believe it or not, is where the main action is this weekend. Yes there's the Solario Stakes at Sandown on Saturday, and yes Danedream runs in a Group 1 at Baden-Baden on Sunday, but for strength in depth the destination is Istanbul. The 'Byerley' bit of the Byerley Turk is the name of the captain who captured him in battle in 1688, and, in recent years, several other British captains- namely Johnston, Balding, Jarvis (M), Dunlop, Given, Channon and (honourary British captain) bin Suroor- have indulged in a bit of re-enactment, capturing the prized races if not the prized horses this time.

The main event is the Topkapi Trophy, run over a mile on turf, won for three years in a row (2008-10) by Michael Jarvis' Pressing, and two of the four British raiders this time are making their debut for new trainers, Master of Hounds (Mike de Kock to Willie Haggas) and Red Duke (John Quinn to David Simcock). Haggas knows what it takes, successful in the 2005 renewal with Brunel, and Master of Hounds looks a class above the rest, already a Group 1 winner in Meydan this year and last seen in the World Cup there (faded into eighth). Like the trainer, the jockey also knows what it takes in Turkey, Christophe Soumillon having won the 2011 Topkapi Trophy aboard Musir for the same owner. You can read Matt Gardner's detailed preview of all four of the big races at Veliefendi here, but suffice to say he too thinks Master of Hounds is a good bet for the feature.

Of the three foundation sires, the Darley Arabian now has almost a monopoly, as 90% of present-day thoroughbreds can be traced back to him, but the Byerley Turk line trickles on, with fitting success in Turkey, courtesy of Halicarnassus in the 2009 Bosphorus Cup, and represented this year by Arsaadi, another Haggas challenger, in the Istanbul Trophy. For carrying the weight of the Byerley Turk stallion line at this year's premier meeting in Turkey, Arsaadi is alone, but at least she's not a clone.

Timeform Radio: Weekend preview podcast

Sandown Racecourse.

Martin Kelly is your host as the Timeform Weekend Preview focuses on Saturday's seven race card at Sandown....

Trainers Hugo Palmer and Clive Cox both have three runners at the Esher track. Hugo is looking for a first Group success while Clive is looking to continue a recent run of good form for the stable.

Timeform's Adam Barnes previews the 2.15, 2.50 and 4 o'clock races.

Click HERE to listen to the podcast.

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US Racing Preview: So Many Ways at Saratoga

There is some excellent racing in the US on Sunday.

Simon Rowlands looks ahead to Sunday's US action...

The penultimate day's racing at Saratoga on Sunday sees the two-year-olds take centre stage in the G1 Spinaway Stakes for fillies on dirt over seven furlongs, due off at 17:56 locally and 22:56 BST.

It is still early days for the youngsters, but some good efforts have started to be posted in recent weeks, and the Spinaway often identifies one of the divisional leaders. It was won 12 months ago by Grace Hall, subsequently second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and still a major force as a three-year-old.

The likeliest filly to follow in her hoofprints on Timeform ratings is the Anthony Dutrow-trained So Many Ways, who has already reached a level of 108p after wins in a maiden at Parx and the G3 Schuylerville here in July.

The latter race showed that So Many Ways does not need to race up with the pace - indeed, she seemingly couldn't that day - and that she seems highly likely to have the stamina for this additional furlong. Most of her six rivals have shown pace-forcing tendencies in their few runs to date, and the ability to see things out well could be at a premium.

There is every chance that one or more of those rivals will make big strides upped to this grade, but the truth is that they will need to if So Many Ways reproduces her Schuylerville effort. The next two best in on ratings are Teen Pauline on 100p and Baby J (behind So Many Ways last time) on 100, while Todd Pletcher saddles the promising pair Corail (96p) and Dreaming of Julia (92p).

But So Many Ways is not exactly standing still at present, either, and she is taken to do what is required to hold her rivals at bay again.
The Spinaway is preceded by the G3 Saranac Stakes for three-year-olds over nine furlongs on turf (due off at 17:22 local time, 22:22 BST), which looks to provide a good opportunity for Lucky Chappy to get off the mark Stateside.

The ex-Italian has shaped well more than once, never more so than when flying home from towards the rear in the G2 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs last time.

Only 120-rated Silver Max was still ahead of him at the line that day, and there is nothing of his calibre against Lucky Chappy on this occasion.

The best of them on Timeform ratings is Excaper - rated 112 - who made the most of a drop in class last time, having become somewhat regressive. It would be disappointing if Lucky Chappy does not have his measure.

The chink in Lucky Chappy's armour, and arguably the reason for more than one of his defeats, is his come-from-behind style. The good news is that there looks to be enough pace on here, courtesy of King Kreesa, Spring To The Sky and Skyring. Lucky Chappy should take some beating.

No prizes are given for figuring that Jenna's Wabbit is the best horse on show in Woodbine's Vice Regent Stakes (due off 16:27 locally, 21:27 BST). He has won six of his nine races in total, including his last three, and can boast a 114 Timeform figure.

However, racing is seldom that simple. Not only does Jenna's Wabbit have to concede 6 lb to all his six rivals - which makes it theoretically quite close with a couple of them - he will have to stretch out to a mile, having gained all his wins at shorter. The one time he tried further than seven furlongs, he ran poorly and finished unplaced.

Jenna's Wabbit will probably win if running to his best, but there's good reason to think that he may not do that, and at his likely odds (he is 6/5 on the Morning Line) that makes him worth opposing.

There was a time when there was just one Derby - at Epsom, over a mile and a half, and on the first Wednesday in June - but they seem to be ten-a-penny now, and Del Mar gets to run its version on Sunday over nine furlongs (post time 18:00, 02:00 on Monday BST).

Howe Great claimed a notable scalp in Dullahan's in a G3 at Gulfstream Park in March but has proved to be a level below the best of the Triple Crown generation since. Nonetheless, that form should be good enough to see him go very close in this grade, and a non-graded win at Monmouth Park last time confirmed that he is still in good heart.

Front-running My Best Brother is better off with Old Time Hockey from last time and may not be easy to pass, but an on-form Howe Great really should take this.

Recommendations:
1 pt win So Many Ways
2 pts win Lucky Chappy
lay to lose 2 pts Jenna's Wabbit
1 pt win Howe Great

Transfer Deadline Day: Hourly updates on all the big moves

Where will these five end up today?
It's the busiest night of the football season with every transfer potentially impacting on the Betfair markets. Mike Norman is here to update us throughout the evening...
17:30
When you're hosting a Transfer Deadline Day party it's important to be prepared. Peanuts, pickled onions, cheese, crisps, and a fridge full of cold lager lemonade are all at the ready. All we need now is some guests.
We tried to get TDD extraordinaire Jim White but he's otherwise engaged, so we tried to get Jimmy White, but we couldn't afford him. In fact the only White we could afford was a cheap bottle of Chardonnay which I'm currently using to keep my pickled onions nice and moist in.
But enough about my cosy little set-up, what's been happening in the transfer market today?
My colleague Christian Crowther - who got the easy shift by the way - penned an early update with news on the likes of Andy Carroll, Daniel Sturridge, Clint Dempsey and Michael Essien, before later reporting on Joao Moutinho's potential move to Tottenham.
However, since Crhistian's update it has emerged that the Moutinho deal is now in the balance because the club and player can't agree personal terms. They have over five hours to sort it out and boy do Spurs need Moutinho. After the departure of Luka Modric to Real Madrid, fans favourite Rafael van der Vaart has joined Hamburg in a deal worth around 10m.
The arrival of Moutinho will boost the Tottenham midfield considerably and enhance their chances of recording a Top Four Finish this season, for which they can currently be backed at 3.412/5.
I'll be hoping to bring you some news of Michael Owen's whereabouts a bit later, once today's horse racing has finished he'll show his face I'm sure, whilst other big names still waiting for their futures to be decided include Clint Dempsey, Theo Walcott and Yossi Benayoun.
Hourly Trivia: Michael Owen's superstition of always putting his right sock and boot on before his left has carried over to the horse-racing world. When one of his horses needs re-shoeing he insists that the right feet are done before the left.

Bundesliga Betting – 5 Reasons Why Dortmund Win the Bundesliga

5 Reasons Why Dortmund Win the Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund have convincingly held off Munich for the last two seasons, but can they do it again? We’ve noticed five ways in which Dortmund have gone the extra mile, and ask what this means for Bundesliga betting.

Winning Spree

Borussia Dortmund have shown an amazing ability to string together long stretches of wins over the past two seasons. 2011/12 saw the Black and Yellows go on eight-game and six-game winning streaks, while 2010/11 saw the Borussians earn two separate seven-game winnings sprees.

Bayern Munich have strung together two winning sprees in the same period, with less impressive runs of six and five wins in 2011/12.

Down, Never Out

In the last two seasons, Dortmund have picked themselves straight back up after suffering a defeat. Only once have they suffered back-to-back defeats, while title rivals have succumbed to three back-to-back beatings.

Click here to see the latest Bundesliga odds

The German Invincibles?

While the champions haven’t gone a whole season unbeaten, they have managed to string together some very impressive unbeaten runs. 2011/12 saw the side go 28 games without defeat (ironically after suffering back-to-back defeats), while Bundesliga betting fans witnessed a 16-game unbeaten run in 2010/11.

A Season of Two Halves

The last two seasons have seen Dortmund peak in different halves of the season. The first half of 2010/11 saw Dortmund drop just seven points, while the champions dropped just four points post-Christmas 2011.

Bounce-Back Ability

Except for one two occasions in two seasons, Dortmund have bounced back from a loss with a win. Taking draws into account, the Black and Yellows have dropped points twice in a row just five times in their last 68 Bundesliga games.

What Does This Mean for Bundesliga Betting?

There are three particularly interesting trends that could be factors to consider for Bundesliga betting. The first is that Dortmund nearly always bounce-back from a defeat with a win. After two seasons, it could be argued that this is a deliberate response from the team – they know that they can’t afford to drop points, and so always go out to prove a point after a defeat.

The second trend is that after winning four games in a row, Dortmund have gone on to win the next twos. Does the added confidence of a few wins buoy the team to more victories?

Finally, Dortmund ended 2011/12 having gone unbeaten for 28 weeks. With a streak this good, how long can they last before dropping points? Will bookmakers for Bundesliga betting over-estimate Dortmund’s chances based on unnaturally good form, and thus creating better value for betting on the opposition?

Click here to see the latest Bundesliga odds.

By Jack Ratcliffe

*Odds subject to change

Ryan Moore: Thank God for Turkey this weekend

The Grand Bazaar of Istanbul
Ryan Moore despairs at an uninspiring UK racing card this weekend before explaining why the pick of the action is in Istanbul. Keep an eye on an in form runner that looks a bit like a pit pony...
Thank god that Turkey races to the rescue - and Germany too tomorrow, with the Group 1 Grosser Preis Von Baden - on what must be one of the poorest weekends of European racing of the year.
I think this meeting used to clash with the Moulin, so fair play to someone for rescheduling.
But it highlights once again the fact that someone needs to grab hold of our domestic fixture list and ensure our high-class cards are spaced out, wherever possible. Last weekend we had real good Group-race cards at York, Newmarket, Goodwood and Windsor on Saturday.
And, with all due respect, this weekend doesn't really set the pulse racing.
But the racing in Istanbul this weekend certainly has a touch of quality about it, and I think it used to house the richest 1m race in Europe at one point.
Zazou looks the clear form pick in the Anatolia Trophy on Saturday. This race is run on the Polytrack and it was on this surface that he beat Cirrus Des Aigles over 1m2f at Chantilly in March. He went on to finish fifth in the Dubai World Cup and should find life easier here than the Group 1 company he has been keeping recently.
He looks like a pit pony, and as if he should be pulling coal around a mine, but he is stocky and pretty classy with it.
Hunter's Light looked impressive in winning at Haydock last time. That probably wasn't the strongest of races but he looks the biggest danger to Zazou. I rode Marcret to win a Group 3 at Chester in May but he has not really fired since and his overall form leaves him with a fair bit to find with the front two of they are on song.
In the Istanbul Trophy on Saturday, Beatrice Aurora probably sets the standard on her best form, and that is probably when I rode her to finish third in the Earl of Sefton or her fifth in the Windsor Forest. But she needs to bounce back from a poor run at Ascot last time. The German filly Survey is rated better than she showed in the Oak Tree at Goodwood last time, and Rhythm Of Light and Arsaadi probably don't have too much to find with Beatrice Aurora.
And it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if one of the Turkish horses was up to winning this either. I don't know anything about them but this is their big weekend and it would only take a 110-rated horse or so to win this on their home turf.
Godolphin's Retrieve, a good fourth at Goodwood, and Flamingo Fantasy, fifth to me on Joshua Tree at Deauville last time, are the only horses I have heard of in the Bosphorus Cup on Sunday, so I can't shed too much light on that race. But I would have thought Master Of Hounds will run a big race in the Topkapi Trophy on the same day.
He has joined William, from Mike de Kock, since his last run when eighth in the Dubai World Cup, and that and his earlier form in Meydan - notably his Group 1 Jebel Hatta win - makes him the best horse in this race. I also hear that the horse has been going well.
And another positive to this horse's chance is that he is versatile. He can go from the front or take a lead, and that is important when you have foreign horses and jockeys in the race and you are not sure how the race and pace is going to pan out.
Van Ellis, pulled out of the Betfair Celebration mile last weekend, is improving fast and looks the big threat.