Are Bayern and Dortmund underperforming on the handicap?

Are Bayern and Dortmund underperforming on the handicap?

By Michael Gales Nov 22, 2013

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Despite dominating the Bundesliga Bayern have underperformed considerably on the handicap this season. Does this offer an opportunity for Dortmund on the handicap this weekend or is their injury-ravaged squad too weak?

Dortmund Struggling with injury’s

Dortmund have made a decent start to their Bundesliga season despite losing two games. Heading into the game with Bayern, Dortmund have suffered back-to-back defeats against Arsenal in the Champions League and then away at Wolfsburg in the league.

They currently sit 2nd in Bundesliga four points behind Bayern after nine wins, one draw and two defeats. At home they have won all six Bundesliga games, scoring 21 and conceding just four.

Injuries to Mats Hummels and Marcel Schmelzer in Germany’s international friendlies have affected a Dortmund squad already riddled with injuries to key players.

With such a fantastic home record this season; a bettor may look at the handicap market to find value betting on Dortmund at home. They have covered 50% of their home games this season, which is slightly better than their overall handicap form, which has The Black and Yellows covering 41.6% of their Bundesliga games this season.

Despite wining ten games at home last season Dortmund only managed to cover the spread in 47% of their 17 games.

Dortmund’s form against the handicap at home this season highlights the bookmaker has a good gauge on the strength of their squad. However how will Dortmund perform against their biggest challengers without a number of key players? Answering that question correctly could earn you a profit at the weekend.

Are Bayern being overestimated?

Bayern have continued their form from last season and are top of the Bundesliga and undefeated after 12 games – 10 wins, two draws. A win over Dortmund at the weekend will extend their lead at the top to seven-points.

Bayern have adapted to manager Pep Guardiola’s philosophy very quickly and despite not resembling tiki-taka football, there is a clear shift towards a more possession-based style.

After beating Augsburg in their last league match the German champions have now gone 37 games unbeaten, breaking a 30-year-old record in the process.

With little value to be had backing Bayern to win on the 1×2 market, it’s worth investigating their form against the spread.

Despite their record breaking season last year, the Bavarians failed to cover the spread in 61.76% of games. On the road however they were much more profitable winning 15 of 17 games and beat the handicap in 70.5% of away games.

Bayern have only covered in 25% of games this season and just 20% on the road

This season however has seen the Bavarians constantly underperforming on the handicap, despite winning 10 of their 12 games. They have only covered in 25% of games this season and just 20% on the road.

The reason could be due to the large handicap values they have been set against, which is a sign of bookmakers overestimating their ability, which may be skewed by last seasons performance and the appointment of Guardiola.

Der Klassiker: Head-to-head record

Dortmund and Bayern have shared the spoils in the recent Der Klassiker’s at the Westfalenstadion with two wins apiece and three draws.

On the handicap Dortmund have covered 57% of the last seven games, while Bayern have covered just twice, the last time in their 5-1 win in 2009.

Interestingly at home in the last seven years, Dortmund have never been favourites on the handicap, while the last three games have been set at 0 goals.

This year however with two successive defeats and a number of injury’s to key players, Dortmund are offered as the +0.5 underdogs at 1.847* compared to Bayern who are at 2.100*.

Bettors must decide if Bayern are again overvalued on the handicap or that they are in fact undervalued given that they are in good form and Dortmund’s squad is depleted with injury.

Click here for the latest Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich odds.

*Odds subject to change

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