суббота, 30 ноября 2013 г.

Why Carlsen is favourite to dethrone five time champion, Anand

Why Carlsen is favourite to dethrone five time champion, Anand

By Mirio Mella Oct 29, 2013

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Final Score after game 10: Anand 3.5pt - Carlsen 6.5pt

The 2013 World Chess Championship starting on November 9th in Chennai sees the accepted norms of the sports biggest grudge match turned on their head. The youthful Norwegian challenger Magnus Carlsen is the heavy favourite, with five-time champion Viswanathan Anand, the unfancied outsider. Find out why this is.

The odds for the World Chess Championship at Pinnacle Sports have 22-year-old Carlsen as the 1.282* favourite to end the eight-year reign of Anand, who is a 3.740* underdog in his own back yard.

What this means for those unfamiliar with betting is that the market thinks Carlsen has approximately a 75% chance of winning, so if the tournament were played 100 times Carlsen would win 75, while the odds give Anand – 21 years Carlsen’s senior – just a 25% chance of retaining his title.

In betting terms Carlsen is a very strong favourite. Should you bet 100 on the Norwegian winning the best of 12 series you would make just 28 profit, while the equivalent bet on Anand would return 274 profit. So what makes Carlsen such a sure thing?

Forget Home Advantage

One of the universally accepted factors in sports betting is the important influence of home field advantage. HFA derives largely from the positive benefits of home support and the influence this can bring to refereeing decisions. In Chess however, these factors are redundant.

Concentration is so critical that Carlsen and Anand will face off in a completely soundproof arena at the Hyatt Regency in Chennai (India) cut off from the audience and journalists by a glass partition.

The referee is so rarely called into play that again this cannot be considered as having any influence on the match. In fact the FIDE Supervisor is specifically tasked with making conditions equal for both players, and since the venue isn’t “neutral”, Carlsen is allowed to appoint a preferred FIDE Supervisor, and (along with Anand) has seen and approved the venue in advance.

HFA does also derive from the comfort of playing in familiar surroundings, so Anand will benefit in some small measure from this. Even for a sport where focus and preparation are supremely important Carlsen is a stickler for routine. He sleeps as close to start time as possible “because my mind works best four or five hours after I wake up”. To get his mind right he will need to spend several days acclimatizing, but despite his youth Carlsen has already collected many air miles (he took a year out from school and travelled the world with his parents playing chess) so the adjustment shouldn’t be a significant issue.

His youth does also bring a potential advantage given the physical and mental demands of World Championship format. Chess players tend to peak in their late thirties, so at 41 Anand could be considered past his best.

Other than facing each other across the board the two will be kept very much apart from each other and the outside world, occupying separate floors at the Hyatt, and even use separate lifts to the playing area. Bettors may however, derive useful insights into their state of mind during the mandatory post-match press conferences. Pinnacle Sports will be offering odds for each game alongside the outright winner market.

In other sports World Championships dirty tricks have been rumoured – late night prank calls, or food poisoning – but FIDE go to the nth degree to ensure fair play with an elaborate security system from the moment players arrive.

So as long as Carlsen can settle into his familiar routine the home advantage doesn’t seem like helping Anand, and the odds underline this. There may be some pressure simply from being such a strong favourite, but equally Anand, a legend in India, may feel the pressure of expectation from a nation counting on defeating the challenger, 21 years his junior.

Form, Rankings & the Genius Factor

Form and situational factors aside, one of the reasons Carlsen is such an overwhelming favourite may come down to the genius factor. Even among Super Grand Masters – with FIDE ratings over 2800 – Carlsen is regarded as something special. Carlsen rates top of the table of all-time best ever FIDE ratings (2,872 in march 2013) on that basis making him the greatest ever Chess player – and is rumoured to be mentored by the man who sits second on that all time list, Garry Kasparov. Singling him out even more, he is unique among top players of not having a favoured opening, which certainly makes his opponent’s preparation even harder.

Anand sits fourth on that elite roll-call but that is based on his best ever rating of 2,817 achieved over 2 years ago in March 2011. His current rating sits at 2,775 – ranking him 8th, with Carlsen no.1 on 2,870 reflecting the fact that Anand hasn’t been at his best of late.

On head-to-head stats Anand actually leads 6-3 in Classical Games with 20 draws, but in the most recent 14 duels, Carlsen has drawn 11 and won 3, the most recent being at the Tal Memorial in June.

Carlsen is capable of losing, as Indian National Chess Champion and Grand Master Abhijeet Gupta points out, “Carlsen lost the last two games (at the London Chess Candidates) under pressure.” But he did prevail at that World Championship eliminator earning him the right to face Vishy and arrives at Chennai in form following his success in the Sinquefield Cup.

Experience in Anand’s favour

Though Carlsen seems to have so much in his favour there is one area where Anand holds a significant advantage – experience

Though Carlsen seems to have so much in his favour there is one area where Anand holds a significant advantage – experience. Vishy turned Grandmaster 2 years before Carlsen was even born, and has been World Champion for 8 years, undisputed for the last six. His experience of successful World Championships in Mexico, Germany, Bulgaria and Russia could prove invaluable.

His experience at the 2010 event in particular shows what a resilient character he is. The Icelandic volcanic eruption saw his flight from Frankfurt to the venue in Sofia grounded, and with his pleas for a three-day delay turned down, he was forced to endure a 40 hour round trip. Against the background of that brutal trip Anand won the deciding game 12 on Black.

Vishy is clearly capable of handling pressure as again in 2012 his defence went to the wire; with the game tied at 6-6 he won a rapid tiebreaker. In this regard the jury is out on Carlsen. He comes across as a calm and level-headed young man, but Chess is littered with casualties from the mental torment the game can inflict, termed ‘the crazy’. Comparisons with Bobby Fischer – considered the most gifted chess player to have lifted the crown, but whom spent almost 20 years as a recluse – have emerged against which Carlsen has made clear distinction.

“It was probably only the chess keeping him sane. He would have gone insane much quicker without it. His story is very different to mine. He had a difficult upbringing. Difficult relationship to his family. I have lived a much more sheltered, normal life.”

If you can take Carlsen at his word, and assume he has the mental toughness to match the undoubted skill that his current FIDE rating clearly denotes, then the odds at Pinnacle Sports for the 2013 World Championship may seem fair value, but as in life, and all other betting, nothing is ever certain in chess.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Could Hendricks be GSP’s greatest challenge at UFC 167?

Could Hendricks be GSP’s greatest challenge at UFC 167?

By Michael Gales Nov 7, 2013

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George St. Pierre has dominated the welterweight division since 2007 but in #1 contender Johny Hendricks, he is potentially facing the greatest threat to his crown. The article looks at factors to consider when betting the UFC 167 main event on November 16th.

How tough a challenger is Hendricks?

Generally, because of the caliber of bettors who make up our markets, we believe the markets tell the story. If you subscribe to that theory, Hendricks (15-1) is the toughest opponent St. Pierre has faced since BJ Penn in January of 2009. Since that time, GSP has defended his title 6 times, with none of the markets suggesting bettors had nearly the faith in those opponents as they do in Hendricks.

With that said, GSP is still the heavy favourite; His championship run has been a dominant one and he showed in his last match (Vs. Nick Diaz) that his surgically-repaired knee is back to health.

Hendricks is still relatively new to the upper echelons of the division, but that may work in his favour. With his one loss coming by decision, he’s never been knocked out or submitted, and he’s not as battle-worn as some of the fighters GSP has faced. He also brings a combination of elite wrestling and remarkable one-strike knockout power that is unique amongst the men St. Pierre has faced.

Striking: Accuracy vs. Power

Should this fight stay on the feet, it will be a study in contrasting styles. St. Pierre generally uses his striking for scoring points and controlling range, landing more strikes than his opponents in each of his last 11 fights. His strikes landed count has increased dramatically over time, averaging 93 landed strikes per fight over his last four encounters. By contrast, his opponents have averaged 43 per fight, a number that would be lower if Jake Shields hadn’t landed 49 of his 73 strikes landed against GSP after the champion temporarily lost sight in one eye in the third round of the their 5-round fight.

Three of Hendricks’ last six matches have ended with first-round knockouts

Hendricks doesn’t have St. Pierre’s striking volume or accuracy, but what he does have is a left hand that’s made him one of the most-feared single-punch knockout artists in the sport. Three of Hendricks’ last six matches have ended with first-round knockouts, which may make up for the lower volume of strikes landed he produces.

St. Pierre may have the advantage standing because his 7 reach benefit makes it difficult for his opponents to connect. Those rivals have only landed one of every four strikes, while Hendricks has been connected with 42% of the time. Of course, Hendricks may only need to land once, and he’s shown a remarkable chin in his time in the octagon.

Wrestling: Tough task taking GSP down

Hendricks’ knockout power is daunting in large part because he constantly offers the threat of taking down his opponents. In his last fight against Carlos Condit (also a former GSP challenger), Hendricks scored a remarkable 12 takedowns in earning the unanimous decision. That number skews his averages to an extent, but throughout his career he has scored a takedown in every two attempts, and there have been a lot of attempts (5.52 per 15 minutes).

The problem Hendricks faces is that GSP is no Condit. St. Pierre has successfully defended 6/7 takedown attempts against him for his career (Condit just 2/5) and has only been taken down once in his last 6 fights. Even against fellow wrestlers Josh Koscheck (4-1), Jon Fitch (7-0) and Hughes (3-0), he’s dominated takedowns for/against, though none of those men offered the threat of Hendricks’ left hand to distract from the wrestling.

Both fighters tend to prefer ground control to submissions. Hendricks hasn’t attempted a submission in any of his UFC decision victories and has only scored one submission in his career. His defense against submissions was tested to a degree against Condit, but not from his back.

GSP hasn’t made many submission attempts during his championship reign, but he went for 6 of them against Dan Hardy, whose jiu-jitsu was similarly untested. If GSP gets Hendricks on his back, he may attempt the finish.

Experience could be key for GSP

With victories over Condit, Koscheck and Fitch Hendricks has done a good job of duplicating GSP’s feats as they’ve been put in front of him, but he can’t match St. Pierre’s experience. This may factor in a couple of ways.

First, Hendricks has never gone 5 rounds. Part of the reason St. Pierre has moved to a more controlled striking game is because of the endurance test a 5-round fight represents. In fact, he’s so enamored by the endurance test that he’s seen his last 6 fights go the duration, winning all 6 by unanimous decision. Hendricks trying too hard for the first round knockout could prove dangerous because of the duration of the fallout if he fails.

Secondly, Hendricks has never fought on this kind of stage. Hendricks has never gone 5 rounds because he’s never fought in a main event. That means he’s never carried the media duties of fight week and never been the centre of attention for a card, a completely different kind of pressure than fighters are otherwise accustomed to.

Will that pressure get to Hendricks? Or will one well-placed strike see St. Pierre’s reign come to an end?

Get the best UFC St-Pierre vs. Hendricks 167 odds here.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Is there a profit to be made in the Championship?

Is there a profit to be made in the Championship?

By Charlie Rowing Nov 13, 2013

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The Championship may not have the glamour and profile of the Premier League, but for a soccer bettor the second tier in England offers a great potential opportunity to make a profit. Read on to learn more about Championship soccer betting at Pinnacle Sports.

Team parity: Opportunity to make a Championship profit

The Championship is regarded as a tough league because of its competitive nature created due to the 24 teams’ relative parity. The phrase ‘anybody can beat anybody’ is often banded about in the Championship.

Bettors should be interested to see if this statement has merit. We looked at the data for the 2012/13 Championship season to see how often underdogs prevailed over the favourites.

Interestingly if you had bet 10 on the underdog to win each game in the Championship last season, you would have made a profit of 786.50.

Despite being relegated by one-point, Peterborough were the most successful -13 wins – team as underdogs last season. In addition Watford upset the odds on 12 occasions, while Barnsley, Charlton, Huddersfield and Ipswich all contributed 11 wins each as outsiders.

Another point highlighting the strength of the teams in the Championship is the performance of the teams relegated from the Premier League the season before. Over the past five seasons those who have been relegated have averaged a position of 8th the following year. Four of the 15 teams have gained promotion at the first attempt. Interestingly, only six teams (including the four) have ever been back to the Premier League since their relegation, while Wolves suffered back-to-back relegations last season.

Because the relative strength of each team is so similar, there is an opportunity to make a profit in Championship betting by conducting extensive research rather than simply backing the favourite. However, as the data sample is small it is advisable to conduct research over five seasons to eradicate any results that may have skewed the data.

Championship format

The Championship is renowned for its excitement as 24 teams compete for the ultimate prize of promotion to the Premier League, which can be worth as much as 90 million.

At the end of the 46-game season the top two teams are automatically promoted, while the teams finishing between third and sixth qualify for the playoffs, and the bottom three are relegated to League 1.

The Championship Playoffs create additional anticipation at the end of the season as the four teams compete in two-legged semi finals. The winners then compete at Wembley in the final, with the victor gaining promotion to the Premier League.

How to bet on the Championship

There are a number of ways to bet on the Championship with Pinnacle Sports. Bettors have the opportunity to mix up their bets with a variety of different betting formats such as:

1×2 Championship Betting

This is the most common bet type. You simply bet on whether a team will win, lose or draw a match.

For example, imagine these odds are for a Championship match between QPR (1.990) and Brighton (4.100) with the draw at 3.570.

If QPR won the match and you staked 10 on them to win, you would have won 19.90– although that would include your initial 10 stake. Therefore your profit would be 9.90. If QPR had been beaten or drew, you would have won nothing and lost your initial 10 stake.

Handicap Championship Betting

Handicaps are useful when one team is heavily favoured over the other, as you can bet on who will win a match, with a set number of goals taken off the favourite’s score.

Let’s say the handicap for QPR is -0.5 goals (1.990) and Brighton is +0.5 goals (1.962). If the game ended 1-0 to QPR, then a bet on them would win as 1-0 covers the -0.5 handicap.

If the result was a draw, or a loss for QPR then a bet on Brighton would win as they would cover their +0.5 handicap.

Totals Championship Betting

The Totals market sees the bettor predict whether the total number of goals for a match will be over or under a set amount.

Imagine the total goal mark for QPR vs. Brighton is set at Over 2 and 2.5 goals (1.877) and Under 2 and 2.5 goals (2.020).

If you bet 10 on the game to be Over 2 and 2.5 goals – and the result was 2-1 (a total of three goals) you would have a return of 18.77 (8.77 profit), while you would have won nothing if you had bet on the goals total to be Under 2 and 2.5.

Click here to see the latest Championship odds.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

We look at the opportunities in betting Challenger tennis

We look at the opportunities in betting Challenger tennis

By Mirio Mella

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Challenger Event Schedule

Tournament

Date

Dakar, Senegal

25/11/2013

Opava, Czech Republic

25/11/2013

Bangkok, Thailand

25/11/2013

Valencia, Venezuela

25/11/2013

Caracas, Venezuela

02/12/2013

We will be offering select ITF Futures events. For the full schedule click here

As part of the expansion of our tennis betting markets Pinnacle Sports offer regular Challenger tennis odds. Read why this is great news for tennis bettors and anyone seeking an edge.

Getting an edge

Challenger Events mix raw young talent making their way up the tennis rankings alongside journeymen on their way down from the main ATP Tour. As such, Challenger Events present a unique challenge as well as opportunity to tennis bettors, and are a source of invaluable information for anyone betting on the main ATP circuit.

Available information – such as injury news – can be sketchy, while modest prize-money, more humble venues & small crowds add in complicated motivational and situational factors. This however represents a real opportunity to gain an edge for those bettors prepared to do the research.

Not so shocking shocks

Casual bettors may, for example, have been very surprised at Dan Evans' run at the 2013 US Open. Having been ranked as high as 367 in March, Evans came through three rounds of qualifying at Flushing Meadows before knocking out 11th seed Kei Nishikori (in straight sets) and world number 52 Bernard Tomic.

"The Challenger event name is well chosen ..a million miles from the glamour of the ATP Tour"

However, those who studied Evans’ form on the Challenger Tour leading into the US Open – making consecutive finals at the Vancouver Open and Comerica Bank Open – would have been less surprised. Evans’ performances are even less surprising with the knowledge that he had made important changes to his coaching team and in his previously wayward personal life.

Recent Challenger events have featured a former world no.8 – Radek Stepanek – who won in September in Orleans, and previous no.38 Donald Young who won back-to-back tournaments in California. At one time Young was considered one of the game’s hottest prospects before falling down the rankings, including a 17 game losing streak (the 3rd highest in Open era).

Another example of a challenger doing well recently is Vasek Pospisil. It’s no coincidence the Canadian won back-to-back Challengers – Johannesburg & Vancouver – before reaching the semi-final of the ATP 1000 Canada Masters.

Challenger in name & nature

The Challenger event name is well chosen – the environment is a million miles from the comfortable hotels and glamour of the ATP Tour. Jamaican born Dustin Brown won the AON Open Challenger on clay in September, and reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon in 2013 (beating Lleyton Hewitt), but those high profile results belie a career that has been a struggle. Dread-locked Brown has spoken of travelling around Europe in a campervan clawing a living by playing Challenger and Futures level events.

Understanding the difficulties that players like Brown face in just competing on the Challenger Tour is crucial. But those bettors that are prepared to do the research can utilise this kind of information to turn the challenge of Challenger Events into potentially significant rewards; and of course the odds and limits at Pinnacle Sports are unbeatable. Reason enough to start betting.

Click here for the latest Challenger Tennis odds

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Are Bayern and Dortmund underperforming on the handicap?

Are Bayern and Dortmund underperforming on the handicap?

By Michael Gales Nov 22, 2013

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Despite dominating the Bundesliga this season Bayern have underperformed considerably on the handicap. Does this offer an opportunity for bettors backing Dortmund on the handicap this weekend or is their injury-ravaged squad too weak?

Dortmund Struggling with injuries

Despite starting the Bundesliga season well, Dortmund head into the game with Bayern on the back of consecutive defeats.

They currently sit 2nd in Bundesliga four points behind Bayern after nine wins, one draw and two defeats. At home they have won all six Bundesliga games, scoring 21 and conceding just four.

Injuries to Mats Hummels and Marcel Schmelzer in Germany’s international friendlies have affected a Dortmund squad already riddled with injuries to key players.

So far this season Dortmund have covered 50% of their home games this season, which is slightly better than their overall handicap form, which has The Black and Yellows covering 41.6% of their Bundesliga games this season.

Despite wining ten games at home last season Dortmund only managed to cover the spread in 47% of their 17 games.

Dortmund’s form against the handicap at home this season highlights the bookmaker has a good gauge on the strength of their squad. However do the injury’s to key players present the bettor with an opportunity to take advantage of any uncertainty the bookmaker may have over the adjusted strength of their team.

Are Bayern being overestimated?

Bayern have continued their form from last season and are top of the Bundesliga and undefeated after 12 games – 10 wins, two draws. A win over Dortmund at the weekend will extend their lead at the top to seven-points.

Bayern have adapted to manager Pep Guardiola’s philosophy very quickly and despite not resembling tiki-taka football, there is a clear shift towards a more possession-based style.

After beating Augsburg in their last league match the German champions have now gone 37 games unbeaten, breaking a 30-year-old record in the process.

With little value to be had backing Bayern to win on the 1 x2 market this season it’s worth investigating their form against the spread.

Despite their record breaking season last year, the Bavarians failed to cover the spread in 61.76% of games. On the road however they were much more profitable winning 15 of 17 games and beat the handicap in 70.5% of away games.

This season however has seen the Bavarians constantly underperforming on the handicap, despite winning 10 of their 12 games. They have only covered in 25% of games this season and just 20% on the road.

The reason could be due to the large handicap values they have been set against, which is a sign of bettors overestimating their ability, which may be skewed by last season’s performance, the appointment of Guardiola and bettors overvaluing their superiority.

Der Klassiker: Head-to-head record

Dortmund and Bayern have shared the spoils in the recent Der Klassiker’s at the Westfalenstadion with two wins apiece and three draws.

On the handicap Dortmund have covered 57% of the last seven games, while Bayern have covered just twice, the last time in their 5-1 win in 2009.

Interestingly at home in the last seven years, Dortmund have never been favourites on the handicap, while the last three games have been set at 0 goals.

This year however with two successive defeats and a number of injury’s to key players, Dortmund are offered as the +0.5 underdogs at 1.847* compared to Bayern who are at 2.100* -0.5.

Bettors must decide if Bayern are again overvalued on the handicap or that they are in fact undervalued given that they are in good form and Dortmund’s squad is depleted with injury.

Click here for the latest Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

пятница, 29 ноября 2013 г.

Knowing when the odds are against you

Knowing when the odds are against you

By Jack Ratcliffe Dec 5, 2012

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The Monty Hall problem is a prime example of how, when presented with a seemingly simple choice of potential outcomes for an unknown outcome (like a football match), some bettors display an ignorance of the fundamental mathematical principals.

In simple terms, if a bettor cannot recognise implied probability and whether a bookmaker’s odds represent ‘value’ they will never make any money in the long term.

The Monty Hall Problem

A brand new car is behind one of three doors. Behind the other two is a goat. You must correctly guess which door hides the car in order to win it, but you have no prior knowledge that allows you to distinguish among the doors.

After you choose a door, one of the other doors opens to reveal one of the two goats. You now have another option – do you change door, or do you stick with your original choice?

Named after the host of “Let’s Make a Deal”, a popular US show in the 60’s & 70’s which formed the basis of the poser, the Monty Hall problem is a seemingly simple mathematical puzzle effectively demonstrates how people struggle with what appears to be a very straight-forward choice.

With this simple yet cleverly posed teaser, the show demonstrated how the average person can demonstrate counter-intuitive behaviour when faced with probability conundrums – and the same is true of casual bettors. When this question was posed in Parade magazine, 10,000 readers complained that the published answer was wrong – including several maths professors.

The Monty Hall Solution

The solution to the Monty Hall problem is simple: always switch doors. After the first door is opened, the car is definitely behind one of the two closed doors (although you have no way of knowing which). Most contestants on the show intuitively see no advantage in switching doors, assuming that each door has an equal (1/3) probability.

This is incorrect – in fact, the chances of winning the car double by switching. While it is true that originally each door had a 33.3% chance of hiding the car, after the first goat is revealed, the probability that the car lies behind the remaining door is 66.6%.

It is easiest to calculate these probabilities by imaging that you’re picking between your original door (33.3% probability) and the combined probabilities of the other two doors (33.3% + 33.3%). This is because once you choose your door, the other two are then paired together – there is a 66.6% chance it is behind one of those two doors. When one is then removed, there is still a 66.6% chance that the car lies behind the remaining door.

You can test this for yourself using the Monty Hall simulator here. You can even run the simulator automatically to produce thousands of results – which will prove the above probabilities.

Knowing When the Odds Are Against You

This problem cleverly illustrates how easy it is to fall into the trap of treating non-random information as if it were random. The current UK TV show “Deal No Deal” – involving 26 unopened boxes containing varying amounts of cash – pays homage to “Let’s Make a Deal” by exploiting the general public’s weak grasp of probability in a similar way, as contestants fail to understand when they are in a statistically strong or weak position, and instead act on false ‘gut feelings’ about chances of success (see our article about heuristics for more information on this).

Such notions are all too common mistakes in gambling when bettors frequently act against their best interests, particularly when bamboozled by clever marketing ploys (read about the drawbacks of free bets here), or encouraged to indulge in betting as a lifestyle choice rather than a question of mathematics.

Betting requires the skill to understand whether the odds offered on an event represent the statistical probability of that event occurring. It doesn’t matter if it’s a game show, playing the lottery or online sports betting, understanding and finding value, is the key to profit.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

How bettors make lazy judgements

How bettors make lazy judgements

By Mirio Mella Mar 19, 2013

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Many people bet intuitively. They rely on what they know or feel about a particular team or player to make an on-the-spot assessment of their chances of success. While intuition is reliable at instantly working out if someone is angry with you, it isn’t great with probability judgements and the Halo Effect is one reason why.

The Halo Effect

For the majority of people, these descriptions leave a more favourable impression of Alan than of Ben. This is strange given that their listed characteristics are identical and just presented in reverse.

Instead of acknowledging that the only difference is in the order that the data is received, the lazy side of our mind (often referred to as System 1) seeks a consistency in evaluation in order to quickly build a coherent narrative.

The initial positive trait – Alan is intelligent – inclines us to interpret the latter traits to support this view and vice-versa with envious Ben. This is known as the Halo Effect.

What has this got to do with betting? Change the example from fictitious men to two soccer teams or tennis players, and the character descriptions to results or performances. It is easy to see how betting judgements are biased by the order in which information is acquired, and the significance of particular performances.

This kind of bias isn’t isolated, people are also susceptible to the Availability Heuristic that leads us to place greater disproportional significance to events/ideas that are easiest to recall. Availability is largely linked to the strength of our emotional response to events, which is greater when they make a more lasting impression e.g. high-scoring games, five-set classics, etc.

So with knowledge of the Halo Effect and Availability Heuristic, let’s look at some examples within betting where they apply:

Brazilian Soccer Team

The reverence with which Brazil’s national soccer team is held sets them aside from all other national teams, and in the minds of the betting public, out of proportion to a truly objective appraisal. It is a fact that the Seleo have won the World Cup more often than any other nation – but their five victories came in two distinct periods 1958-70 and 1994-2002, while at the last two tournaments they fell at the quarter-finals, and the burden of expectation will be huge in 2014.

Their periods of success starting with the golden age of Pele, Carlos Alberto, Rivelino, etc. have created a ‘Halo’ that skews the perception of all Brazilian teams, which availability bias confirms with the easy recollection of frequently aired wonder-goals, especially from the 1970 tournament in Mexico.

Younger generations may be less familiar with events from over 40 years ago but the media perpetuates the idea (confirmation bias) by hammering home the idea that all Brazilian players are super-skilled. This consistency of evaluation creates a coherent narrative. “Brazil has produced many of the world’s most skilful players – therefore all Brazilian players are skilful”.

At the risk of upsetting half of Merseyside, Liverpool FC are another team that the Halo Effect applies to. Having won eleven League titles from 1973-90, it can be hard to disassociate subsequent Anfield teams with that history. This can lead to bettors to over-value contemporary Liverpool sides, who share nothing but a history with those great teams.

The Halo Effect also explains why a disproportionate amount of credit is given to famous ex-soccer players who move into management. There is no statistical evidence that being a good player makes you a good manager. Mark Hughes was a great player at Manchester United and Chelsea, but expectations of him as a manager have subsequently been set at the same level of achievement. The Halo created by playing exploits leads many clubs, fans and bettors to expect more than is realistic from those individuals when they are picking the team. This subject has gained exposure through the book Moneyball, and film of the same name.

Reverse Halo

The Halo Effect can also work in reverse. If the first impression of your holiday hotel is a broken sign, this can set a negative context biasing all subsequent judgements about your stay. From a betting perspective, a bad performance disproportionally biases future assessments.

After relinquishing a four-shot lead going into the final round of the 2011 US Masters, Rory McIlroy was labelled a choker and worse by newspaper headlines. Prior to the tournament he was one of the sport’s rising stars, but one dramatic round of 80 – easily recalled given the visible turmoil of the young golfer (thanks to the Availability Heuristic) – changed all that in many bettors’ eyes. Any bettor able to take a more rounded judgement would have benefited two months later when he won the US Open by eight shots, then in 2012 he won his second major, the US PGA Championship

Had these events happened in reverse – winning two majors then collapsing in the final round of the Masters – assessments of his future performances would have been more forgiving. This is particularly pertinent with McIlroy’s walking off the course halfway through round two of the Honda Classic (on Mar 1st) with a 7-over par score and in a ‘bad state mentally’. The ‘Halo’ that major success has given will temper bettors’ opinions of McIlroy’s chances of future success.

Lessons to Learn

Our intuitive mind is valuable and very powerful, and can often save our lives by perceiving danger. However, it has a real weakness when it comes to statistical assessment. The trick is to force our effortful mind (System 2) into action.

Before making a betting choice, it is important to:

Deliberately look for three counter arguments to your face value assessment

Employ as much objective data with as big a sample size as possible

Ignore mainstream media which often seeds simplistic narratives

Bettors who read about interesting aspects of psychology like the Halo Effect may be inspired to the point of sharing their new knowledge, but this doesn’t mean that they can modify there own propensity to place ‘Halos’ on sportsmen or teams. The test is not whether you have learned a new fact but whether your understanding of situations you encounter has evolved.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

What does ‘getting an edge in betting’ really mean?

What does ‘getting an edge in betting’ really mean?

By Mirio Mella Nov 15, 2012

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The fundamental challenge for serious bettors is to gain an advantage over whoever is laying their bet, whether that is a bookmaker, exchange or casino. In betting parlance this is called ‘getting an edge’ and if you want to be a profitable bettor, you need to understand what this means.

Margins Between Success & Failure

There is a well-worn clich in sports journalism – the margin between success and failure is slim. In betting, the margin between making a profit or losing money is actually variable; it simply depends on which bookmaker you choose to bet with.

And while margins are fundamental to making money, a large percentage of bettors are oblivious to their impact. Margins are discussed at great length at Pinnacle Sports, because it offers the lowest margins and therefore gives bettors a better chance to win.

This is obvious by looking at the different margins on long-term break-even rates:

Knowledge is Power

Once you understand margins, you have identified an advantage that a bookmaker holds over you. Now you need to find ways to counteract that edge. One way you can get a jump over a bookie is finding markets where you know more than the oddsmaker.

There is no magic bullet here. Bookmakers are experienced and have vast data at their disposal, but they have their weaknesses. Niche markets are a great example. Bookmakers often offer minor leagues, or novelty markets as a marketing ploy to differentiate from competitors, to boost acquisition or to gain exposure in new target territories. Not because they are experts in those areas.

They are not in a position to understand the dynamics of third division Russian women’s volleyball, but there is no reason why you cannot make yourself an expert in those areas where bookmakers’ knowledge is potentially weak.

The Olympics is an excellent example of this, with oddsmakers tackling sports with which they have little experience or useful data. Betting limits will be low, but this in itself should be taken as a potential indicator of the book’s lack of confidence.

Keeping Your Ear to the Ground

Knowledge is critical, but alone it doesn’t guarantee success. If what you’ve learnt is already common knowledge it will already be built into the odds. Real value comes from information as close to the source as possible – or in horse racing, “straight from the horse’s mouth”.

Twitter has opened up new opportunities here, speeding up the dissemination of information. However, it’s equally accelerated the time it takes information to become common knowledge. It has also increased the amount of rumour, speculation and noise.

Good examples of getting an edge through timely information can be identifying reliable Twitter feeds that might be leaking team formations, weather, pitch conditions, injury news or club finances. See below for examples:

Example A: On October 6th 2012 Kettering was forced to field 10 men in a Southern Premier League home game against Bashley. Players had issued an ultimatum on unpaid wages that ran out prior to the game. The word got out as Bashley’s odds continually contracted. Kettering lost 7-0; their previous four home games had resulted in two draws and two single goal defeats.

Example B: The Mascot Grand National is an annual hurdle race in England between sporting mascots, with odds offered by many bookmakers. The emphasis is certainly on fun, so entry criteria are loose, but big money has been made with numerous big gambles being landed. In 2001, Freddie the Fox won but later disqualified after he was found to be an Olympic hurdler; while in 2005 a huge gamble was landed on the Scoop 6 Squirrel representing the Sun newspaper. The impact of ‘ringers’ on the Mascot Grand National caused the race to be boycott in 2011.

Betting Outside the Box

Given the chance, would you rather bet on the outcome of an event that was known – just not to many people – or unknown? The former is clearly more appealing.

Any kind of award falls into this category. So you have to find ways of seeing inside the winner’s envelope before the award is announced. Information leaks, sometimes inadvertently, sometimes non-verbally.

Example C: The Church of England’s recent appointment of the Archbishop of Canterbury provides an excellent example of how supposedly classified information can prove porous. Even a revered establishment like the C of E wasn’t able to stop word getting out to the extent that market was closed early.

Sometimes the result isn’t known, but is entirely predictable because of motivation. Think of reality TV Shows, where talent is not the only consideration. A propensity for controversy is equally important so look beyond the narrow competition parameters and research things like programme ratings and channel competition.

Cross-Correlations

Finally, understanding cross-correlations or dependencies is vital for betting. If you correlate poor weather with low scoring in rugby, and study long term forecasting, you may anticipate bad weather and focus on betting totals going under.

You can go further and perm your totals bets for potentially lucrative accumulators. It’s important to remember, however, that when looking at dependencies, correlation doesn’t imply causality.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

How to pick a betting tipster and avoid the monkeys

How to pick a betting tipster and avoid the monkeys

By Mirio Mella Sep 26, 2012

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Some bettors defer the betting selection process and use tipsters. Unfortunately, it’s easy to confuse whether a tipster’s track-record shows a statistically significant predictive ability, or just a good run of luck.

For example, there’s a tipster that, over five years, had a 100% track record of predicting tennis matches with an even probability of success – making $50,000 profit. Impressive, right? Not if you discovered that the star tipster was, in fact, a monkey.

Let’s say we run a simulation which sees 10,000 tennis tipsters (or monkeys, it really doesn’t matter) each with a 50% chance of either making $10,000 a year or losing $10,000 a year. If any tipster has a losing year, they are eliminated.

The tipsters/monkeys make their predictions by simply pushing one of two buttons. If we run the test for one year 5,000 of our tipsters would be $10,000 in profit and the same number $10,000 in the red and binned. In year two we would have 2,500 monkeys with perfect record and if we keep going by Year 5 we would have 313 monkeys from that original cohort that would statistically be able through pure luck to make successive accurate predictions and $50,000.

Confusing Survivors with Savants

This phenomenon is called survivorship bias, and it has huge significance in the real world of tipsters, because the successful tipster currently topping the tipster league table on hottips.com may just be a lucky monkey pushing a button.

What are the important factors that influence this process? The size of the original sample is critical. If you just focus on the winners in this process, ignoring all the other billions of monkeys producing gibberish, you’re being fooled by randomness. The simple fact is that by starting from a large enough sample, some of the participants will end up looking like a savant by pure luck.

The other critical factor is the probability of the event. Our example used a fair coin toss (50/50 chance of heads or tails), but in the real world a bookmaker will hold an edge. Re-running our test with higher margins produces fewer lucky winners: the lower the margin, the easier it is to achieve long-term success.

On a very basic level, a good judge of a tipster would be whether they use Pinnacle Sports. Our odds are proven to be the best, so if they don’t use us, they clearly don’t know their stuff.

A Clever Illustration of Survivorship Bias

There are plenty of great examples of survivorship bias, but one particularly clever stunt by the famous English illusionist Derren Brown in a 2008 programme called ‘The System’ cleverly illustrated how deceiving it can be.

The show was based around the idea that a system could be developed to “guarantee a winner” of horse races – a claim regular bettors will be accustomed to. The show followed Khadisha, to whom Brown anonymously sent five correct horse race predictions in a row. There was no trickery at work either, the predictions were fair and accurate and the programme built towards a climax focusing on a sixth and final prediction where, confidence boosted by Brown’s 100% tipping record, Khadisha invested $4,000 of her own money… and lost.

Of course there was no system; Khadisha was simply the product of survivorship bias.

Brown had actually started by contacting 7,776 people (sufficient sample size), and split them into six groups, giving each group a different horse from a six-horse race. Note the number of variables is as equally important as the number of predictions in how quickly the original sample reduces in size.

A good judge of a tipster would be whether or not they use Pinnacle Sports?

After each race 56 of the people had lost and were dropped from the system (like our failing monkeys) and equal proportions of the survivors randomly sent another selection. Kadisha happened to be the ultimate survivor, winning five times in a row.

The fundamental lesson for sports betting is that anyone can hit a lucky run, and the more improbable something is; the bigger role luck has. If your typewriting monkey produces the Complete Works of Shakespeare from a sample of several billion, don’t get too excited. If he repeats the feat, however, take a closer look.

A Simple Formula to Evaluate a Tipster’s Abilities

A simple way to evaluate a tipster’s true abilities is to take the square root of the total number of selections and add that number to one half of the total plays made:

(No. Selections) + (Total Plays Made)

For example, if he has 400 tips, the square root would be 20, which added to one half of 400, gives a total of 220 theoretical wins.

If the tipster is 20 selections above 200, he is two standard deviations above average. There’s about a 1 in 40 chance of a 50% handicapper doing that. So a player with 400 selections would need to go 220-180, or 60-40 with 100 selections to be this rare.

Without being a master statistician, you can quickly see that the more selections you can view, the easier it is to evaluate a player. In many cases, it’s safer to follow someone with a lower winning percentage if they have a lot more plays.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Learn how free bets work & their drawbacks

Learn how free bets work & their drawbacks

By Charlie Rowing Oct 10, 2012

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When choosing a bookmaker, incentives are especially appealing – but how do free bets work? Unfortunately, a read through of these bookmakers’ terms and conditions show that it’s not just free money.

Continuing on from our previous article – Why Free Bets come at a Cost – where we discussed free bet terms and conditions, this time we’ve actually investigated free bets from various bookmakers to learn exactly how they work – including their drawbacks.

One bookmaker – we’ll call them Regret Victor – has a 25 Free Bet offer for new accounts. Upon closer inspection of the offer, it is then revealed in the T’s & C’s that you have to place a bet with your own cash that must contain at least one selection with odds of at least 2.00, unless it is a four-fold or greater. They will then match this bet with ‘promo cash’ up to 25.

Essentially, the bookmaker is telling you what to bet on with your own money before it will give you anything. And at 2.00 or greater, it’s a punt with a chance of winning under 50%.

Drawbacks:

Free Bets usually require you to match the bookmaker’s investment with your own

Bookmakers steer you into less profitable or losing markets

To make a withdrawal you need to make ever more bets

Having fulfilled that condition, you are only able to withdraw any winnings from the promo cash once you have staked at least four times the value of your initial bonus amount and these bets are fully settled.

So even with the 25 in promo cash you would need to place a further bet of up to at least 100 of your own money before you could make any withdrawals.

More Money, More Conditions

Some bookmakers – like one we’ll call Daddy Power – try to lure customers by enticing them with a huge free bet – Power offer up to 250.

This isn’t however a gratis gift; to get the money you would need to place a bet of 50 to have it matched by the bookies, and then place another four bets of 50 to receive a second free bet of 50. After another five bets of 50, they then get another free 50, while a further ten 50 bets are needed to reach 250.

The whole scheme requires a punter to bet 1,000 of their own money in order to get 250 worth of free bets. Oh, and all bets must have minimum odds of 1.50. Now is that what you would expect from a 250 free bet?

Another bookmaker – we’ll call them Bet 123 – has a different take on its high-value free bet. It offers a bet of up to 200, provided it is matched by the same deposited amount, and played on events with minimum odds of 1.50.

You then need to successfully rollover (rebet) your total deposit and bonus value three times before you can withdraw anything. This means that if you did deposit 200, you would have to wager 1,200 {200 Deposit*3 + 200 Bonus*3} before being able to withdraw anything. Additional conditions require that you do not place bets on Asian Handicap, Goal Line and Baseball money line markets.

Risk Free Bet

Another slightly different approach to incentives, but equally deceptive, is the risk-free bet. You qualify for the free bet only if you lose your first bet (up to a certain amount), which essentially gives you your money back. However it is not as straightforward as it appears. This so called risk-free bet requires you to risk your own money first, and you have to bet more than the risk-free bet to be able to withdraw.

A bookmaker –we’ll call them DoBog – offers a 10 risk-free bet, although a 10 bet (from your own money) must first be placed on a bet with odds of at least 2.00 before you receive the 10 bonus. The bonus amount then needs to be rolled-over up to three times at odds of 2.00 or greater prior to any withdrawals.

Conclusion: Don’t Waste Time & Money

These so called incentives are a waste of both time and money. You have to spend time learning the exact terms and conditions if you want to see your cash again, while the poor value odds these bookmakers offer (having enticed bettors in with promo offers) end up costing bettors in the long run.

It’s far better to use a low-margin bookmaker like Pinnacle Sports, which offers much better odds than incentive-offering bookies.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Why bettors should understand heuristics

Why bettors should understand heuristics

By Mirio Mella Oct 17, 2012

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Gamblers frequently bet on a feeling or gut instinct. Unfortunately your gut is far more irrational than you might think, utilising ready made rules of thumb – known in psychology as heuristics – which can be unsuitable tools for successful betting.

There is a very good reason we rely on heuristics – evolution. Our distant ancestors when faced with complex life-threatening problems didn’t have time to weigh up the situation, so developed quick-fire methods. Those that worked were passed down through generations, and we are still relying on them, often when we shouldn’t.

Introducing The Common Heuristics

Anchoring

Anchoring affects people’s ability to estimate the most probable number of items of a particular kind or the most probable value along a sequence.

Example: A group is asked to guess the percentage of African countries in the United Nations. Before answering they witness a random process to produce a number (the anchor), and are asked whether the percentage of African Nations is above or below that anchor. They then make their actual estimate of African countries in the United Nations. The estimates given will track the anchor, even though the participants know it is random.

Without realising it, the individuals are anchoring their estimate to a totally arbitrary point. The reason for this is thought to be because the anchor is taken as a working hypothesis, a starting point from which the individual is reluctant to move too far away from.

This phenomenon is widely exploited in marketing and is very relevant to betting. Bettors should beware anchors in bet wording, and realise how handicaps, and spread values will influence your judgements, without you even realising.

Availability Bias

Availability bias manifests in people’s tendency to attach greater significance to events that leave the strongest impression, or are easier to recall.

Examples of this include the way people over-estimate the risk associated with dramatic and traumatic events such as a terrorist attack or earthquakes. The sale of earthquake insurance goes up immediately after earthquakes though the risk is greatly diminished, while people are prepared to pay a higher premium to insure against death from an act of terrorism than insurance against death of any kind (which would obviously include terrorism).

From a betting perspective be wary of assigning excessive significance to more recent or memorable results.

From a betting perspective be wary of assigning excessive significance to more recent or memorable results. Ask yourself whether you find it easier to recall a 0-0 draw or a high-scoring game.

It’s likely to be the latter, but it doesn’t mean it is more probable. In soccer bettors tend to over-estimate the frequency of events like red-cards and corners, because they are important and easily recalled. This impacts perceived probability and betting behaviour.

It is linked to a common phenomenon of bettors favouring the Over in Totals markets, or buying on a Spread, as availability bias leads them to wrongly conclude the event concerned is more likely than in reality.

Diversification

This heuristic describes how people tend to demonstrate greater diversity when confronted with simultaneous rather than sequential choices.

Example: When asked to choose five chocolates from a selection box, with an equal number of varieties, individuals make more diverse selections than when they make five sequential choices.

With relation to betting, punters tend to invest more when the opportunity appears to be more diversified. A good example would be backing the draw and the away team based on the perception of a more diversified bet, as opposed to simply laying the home team. There isn’t, however a logical reason why you should bet more, unless the Expected Value is greater.

Escalation of Commitment or Sunk Cost

This heuristic describes how people feel compelled to justify a commitment by increasing the cumulative investment despite the potential cost going forward outweighing the potential benefit.

This is commonly described as ‘throwing good money after bad’. An example would be to sit through a film that you are not enjoying just because you have already invested time and money in watching it, and therefore determined to justify that investment.

From a betting perspective this can be seen when punters persist with a bet that has a high probability of incurring a large cost rather than taking a certain immediate, but smaller loss. People in these situations tend to display an irrational determination to justify their original decision, instead of ‘cutting their losses’.

Representativeness, or the Gamblers Fallacy

People tend to believe short sequences of random events are representative of longer ones, ignoring the fact that these events are statistically independent.

Example: The gambler’s fallacy is also known as the Monte Carlo Fallacy because in 1913 Black come up 26 times in a row on a roulette table at the Monte Carlo casino. After the fifteenth Black bettors were piling onto Red, assuming the chances of yet another Black number were becoming astronomical, thereby illustrating an irrational belief that one spin somehow influences the next.

The gambler’s fallacy is closely related to the Hot Hand Fallacy, which is the belief in streaks of good/bad luck. Where someone experience what seems like an atypical sequence of events, they infer some special significance i.e. I am on a hot streak, or my luck is out.

It has come to be known as the Hot Hand Fallacy after a study in the 1980s suggested a basketball player who successfully makes a shot is no more likely to be successful the next time they throw just because of their initial success.

This is particularly relevant in betting for random games of chance such as roulette, lotteries and dice games.

Humans aren’t machines, we try to be rational, but our instincts often get in the way. This can be costly for gamblers, so as much as possible ignore what your gut is saying unless its time for lunch.

If this article has struck a chord with you, then further reading of Daniel Kahneman & (the late) Amos Tversky is highly recommended. The pair are widely credited with ground-breaking work in the field of cognitive biases and Kanheman went on to win the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, despite not being an economist. He recent best seller “Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow’ summarises much of his work, and will open the eyes of anyone interested in how people deal with making based decisions under uncertainty, which is exactly what betting is.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

четверг, 28 ноября 2013 г.

Are Spurs underrated when United visit White Hart Lane?

Are Spurs underrated when United visit White Hart Lane?

By Michael Gales Nov 27, 2013

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With Manchester United undefeated in the last ten games at White Hart Lane, we look at both the handicap history and form to see if they offer bettors a better chance than the 1×2 of making a profit on Spurs this Saturday?

Is Spurs’ struggle to score affecting their handicap form?

Tottenham manager Andre Villas-Boas is under intense pressure after Spurs suffered a humiliating 6-0 defeat last time out at Manchester City. Despite spending around 100m in the summer, the Lilywhites have failed to impress and currently sit 9th.

Until the game against City, Spurs had the best defensive record in the Premier League, had dominated possession in 81% of their EPL games and had the most shots on target.

However it is their poor form in front of goal that is unsettling the fans.  Despite dominating the play and creating a host of chances, they have scored just nine goals – third worst in the Premier League – and hold the record for worst shot to goal ratio in the division.

Spurs spent big money on Roberto Soldado in the summer who AVB hoped would lead the line for his possession-based style of play. Despite his obvious talent he has struggled in front of goal – scoring just four EPL goals and three from the spot. Spurs’ troubles in front of goal led to AVB bringing on Emmanuel Adebayor – who hadn’t played a game all season and had been training with the reserves – over Jermaine Defoe against City. Does this show AVB is desperate for a target man to fit his tactics?

With a lack of goals, it is interesting to note that Spurs have covered 50% of games this season.

However, at White Hart Lane despite covering the spread in the first two games against Swansea and Norwich respectively, they have failed to do so since – four games. In these four games they have scored just two goals, which highlights their problem in front of goal, and is a bad omen ahead of the visit of one of their bogey teams.

Bettors need to work out whether this is a short-term problem and that their lack of goals is down to bad luck – against Newcastle Tim Krul made 14 saves, which is an EPL record – or if the problem is more deep rooted to AVB’s tactics and the lack of a focal point in attack?

United continue to struggle on the handicap

Manchester United are unbeaten in their last ten games in all competitions. Since their 2-1 home defeat at the hands of West Brom they have gone six games unbeaten in the EPL and have climbed to sixth in the table.

United may have started to put their unconvincing start to the season behind them and to showcase the form of defending champions but what does this mean for handicap betting?

A look at their handicap form versus the spread shows that they are underperforming as they have covered just three (25%) games all season – joint worst in the EPL.

Last season they covered the spread on the road in 52.6% of games compared to this season, which has seen them cover just 33% of games away from the ‘Theatre of Dreams’.

Despite their recent unbeaten run, United are still not performing to the standards assigned by the bookies. Bettors should decide whether or not the bookies are overestimating their strength?

Tottenham vs. Manchester United: Head-to-head at White Hart Lane

In the Premier League Tottenham have failed to beat Manchester United at White Hart Lane in the last ten seasons – losing six and drawing four.

Despite failing to beat United they have covered the spread in 40% of games – the four draws – which is due to Spurs being handicap underdogs in all ten games.

This year the handicap is set at 0 with Tottenham as the 1.877* favourites and United at 2.070*. Have the bookmakers realised they have been overestimating the strength of United, and adjusted the handicap accordingly? Or do they believe Spurs’ troubles up front are more to do with bad luck and that they are ready to turn their fortunes around? Either way it’s up to the bettor to decide which team will prevail in a game the bookmakers have both teams at equal strength.

Click here to see the latest Tottenham vs. Manchester United odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

пятница, 22 ноября 2013 г.

Are Bayern and Dortmund underperforming on the handicap?

Are Bayern and Dortmund underperforming on the handicap?

By Michael Gales Nov 22, 2013

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Despite dominating the Bundesliga Bayern have underperformed considerably on the handicap this season. Does this offer an opportunity for Dortmund on the handicap this weekend or is their injury-ravaged squad too weak?

Dortmund Struggling with injury’s

Dortmund have made a decent start to their Bundesliga season despite losing two games. Heading into the game with Bayern, Dortmund have suffered back-to-back defeats against Arsenal in the Champions League and then away at Wolfsburg in the league.

They currently sit 2nd in Bundesliga four points behind Bayern after nine wins, one draw and two defeats. At home they have won all six Bundesliga games, scoring 21 and conceding just four.

Injuries to Mats Hummels and Marcel Schmelzer in Germany’s international friendlies have affected a Dortmund squad already riddled with injuries to key players.

With such a fantastic home record this season; a bettor may look at the handicap market to find value betting on Dortmund at home. They have covered 50% of their home games this season, which is slightly better than their overall handicap form, which has The Black and Yellows covering 41.6% of their Bundesliga games this season.

Despite wining ten games at home last season Dortmund only managed to cover the spread in 47% of their 17 games.

Dortmund’s form against the handicap at home this season highlights the bookmaker has a good gauge on the strength of their squad. However how will Dortmund perform against their biggest challengers without a number of key players? Answering that question correctly could earn you a profit at the weekend.

Are Bayern being overestimated?

Bayern have continued their form from last season and are top of the Bundesliga and undefeated after 12 games – 10 wins, two draws. A win over Dortmund at the weekend will extend their lead at the top to seven-points.

Bayern have adapted to manager Pep Guardiola’s philosophy very quickly and despite not resembling tiki-taka football, there is a clear shift towards a more possession-based style.

After beating Augsburg in their last league match the German champions have now gone 37 games unbeaten, breaking a 30-year-old record in the process.

With little value to be had backing Bayern to win on the 1×2 market, it’s worth investigating their form against the spread.

Despite their record breaking season last year, the Bavarians failed to cover the spread in 61.76% of games. On the road however they were much more profitable winning 15 of 17 games and beat the handicap in 70.5% of away games.

Bayern have only covered in 25% of games this season and just 20% on the road

This season however has seen the Bavarians constantly underperforming on the handicap, despite winning 10 of their 12 games. They have only covered in 25% of games this season and just 20% on the road.

The reason could be due to the large handicap values they have been set against, which is a sign of bookmakers overestimating their ability, which may be skewed by last seasons performance and the appointment of Guardiola.

Der Klassiker: Head-to-head record

Dortmund and Bayern have shared the spoils in the recent Der Klassiker’s at the Westfalenstadion with two wins apiece and three draws.

On the handicap Dortmund have covered 57% of the last seven games, while Bayern have covered just twice, the last time in their 5-1 win in 2009.

Interestingly at home in the last seven years, Dortmund have never been favourites on the handicap, while the last three games have been set at 0 goals.

This year however with two successive defeats and a number of injury’s to key players, Dortmund are offered as the +0.5 underdogs at 1.847* compared to Bayern who are at 2.100*.

Bettors must decide if Bayern are again overvalued on the handicap or that they are in fact undervalued given that they are in good form and Dortmund’s squad is depleted with injury.

Click here for the latest Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

среда, 20 ноября 2013 г.

How understanding each Ashes ground could help you pick a winner

How understanding each Ashes ground could help you pick a winner

By Michael Gales Nov 20, 2013

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Each of Australia’s five Test grounds for the upcoming Ashes series have distinct characteristics. This article highlights how Australia and England must adapt for the individual Tests, and assesses their historical performances at each ground.

Gabba: Australia’s Fortress (1st Test: 21 – 25 November)

Australia and England’s records at the 5 Ashes Test grounds

Venue

Australia Record

Win%

England Record

Win%

Gabba

W-33 L-8 D-13

60%

W-4 L-10 D-5

21%

Adelaide Oval

W-35 L-17 D-16

49%

W-9 L-16 D-5

30%

The Waca

W-23 L-10 D-7

57%

W-1 L-8 D-3

8%

MCG

W-60 L-30 D-15

57%

W-20 L-27 D-7

37%

Sydney CG

W-56 L-28 D-17

55%

W-22 L-25 D-7

40%

Of the five Test grounds used for this Ashes Series, the Gabba in Brisbane is Australia’s fortress.  It is no coincidence that the Aussies have chosen to start here; with a win record of 60% they have won 33 Test matches, losing just eight and are undefeated here since 1988.

England have won four Tests at the Gabba, but two of them were before the Second World War, with the last victory coming under Mike Gatting in 1986. England recovered from being bowled out for 260 last time to draw the match after posting a record 517-1 as Alistair Cook scored an unbeaten 235*.

There are numerous reasons why the Gabba is such a difficult venue for England, the most obvious being the brutally hot climate, which impacts the wicket.

The pitch traditionally has plenty of pace and bounce, which suits the tall fast bowlers. However, local knowledge is vital as the pace and bounce can seduce bowlers and therefore subconsciously making them bowl too short.

Australia have been brash about attacking England’s spinner Graeme Swann to nullify his threat so don’t expect any pitch to spin aggressively. Historically, spin tends to play less of a role at the Gabba, although Shane Warne has taken the most wickets here, while Australian off-spinner Nathan Lyon has a commendable record thanks mainly due to the bounce rather than any turn.

If England can hold on for a draw at the Gabba they will be on their way to retaining the Ashes, win and the Aussies could be deflated from the psychological blow of defeat at their biggest fortress.

Adelaide Oval: The Baggy Green’s weak spot (2nd Test: 5 – 9 December)

If the Gabba is the Aussies fortress, the Adelaide Oval is their weak spot.  With a 49% win percentage, this is their worst performing ground from the five Test venues.

England won last time out and the ground has historically been noted for excellent batting conditions, some spin later in the game and reverse swing, so pace bowlers have tended to attack the stumps.

Historical form can be ignored however, as for the first time, it will have a drop-in pitch. Nobody is sure what it will play like. Only one game has been played here since and batsman dominated. With that said, Australian media have been worried that it may turn and therefore giving England and Swann the advantage.

The Waca: England’s bogey ground  (3rd Test: 13 – 17 December)

Nowhere in Australia has been more difficult for England to win at than the Waca. England have recorded just one win (8%) at the Waca and have lost six successive test matches.

England have won just once at the Waca and have lost 6 successive test matches

Renowned historically for its pace and bounce the English batsman have struggled and have passed 200 runs in just five of their last 12 innings and never amassed more than 350. Last time they were blown away for 187 and 123 by a Mitchell Johnson and Ryan Harris combination.

Despite losing some of its pace the batsman will still face the ball whizzing around their heads. The Australians will be used to the pitch, while opposition teams can fall in to the trap of bowling too short at times when they see the ball fly through.

Batsman with good concentration and patience can prosper. The first 30 balls are the most difficult for a batsman; get in and there aren’t many better places to bat as the pace is even and the outfield rapid.

Pundits often talk about the sea breeze at Perth, but most of the time it’s the easterly breeze that helps the ball swing.

MCG: Boxing Day madness (4th Test: 26 – 30 December)

You should note that it could be all over at this point. The Boxing Day game is one of the great Australian traditions.  The conditions however suit the England players more than the previous ground, which is why they have a 37% win record at the MCG.

Last time out England relied on knowledge from bowling coach David Saker who persuaded Andrew Strauss to change his mind about batting first: Australia were bowled out for 98 before lunch and by the close, England were 158 without loss.

Saker had knowledge of how the MCG’s drop-in pitches played, thanks to his time with Victoria and his insight could be crucial again.

The drop-in wicket is generally flat, with little pace, bounce or spin. Day one with the new ball is considered the most dangerous time to bowl, so winning the toss could be vital.

SCG: England’s favourite (5th Test: 2 – 6 January)

England have performed well historically In the final Test match of the Ashes at the SCG in Sydney. The pitches are friendlier for England’s batsmen, and have sometimes turned for their spinners. They have also settled into the tour by the time they reach Sydney, which is highlighted by their 40% win ratio.

Traditionally the SCG has favoured the spinners more than any other pitch. However, Warne took more wickets at Brisbane and Graeme Swann managed only two of 20 Australian wickets last time. The evidence points towards a pitch that is holding together better than it did in the past, which is why fast bowlers have dominated the two subsequent Tests, against India and Sri Lanka. Historically teams have fielded two spinners, but expect them to choose just one.

Each Australian ground has a unique characteristic, which is why it’s difficult for touring teams to adjust to the conditions. By choosing to play at Perth and Brisbane – England’s worst performing grounds – inside the first three Tests, it would appear the Aussies have given themselves the best chance of starting well in the forthcoming series. Of course historical venue records must be considered along side the form and strength of the current sides, as well as the context of England’s recent dominance of the Ashes, as they look for a fourth straight win.

By understanding the characteristics of each pitch, how they have performed in the past and both teams’ historic records, bettors along with their own research, should be well informed ahead of betting on the Ashes.

Click here for the latest Ashes odds.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

суббота, 16 ноября 2013 г.

Historic Merseyside Derby handicap data

Historic Merseyside Derby handicap data

By Michael Gales Nov 15, 2013

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Despite both teams starting well in the Premier League this season Liverpool and Everton have actually struggled on the handicap. So with the handicap set at 0 for the fourth consecutive Merseyside Derby at Goodison, we look at the historic handicap data to see who might have the edge.

Everton struggling on the handicap 

Since his arrival in the summer Roberto Martinez has given Everton (2.940*) a fresh impetus and adapted their playing style from direct to possession based.

The Spaniard now prepares to lead his blue army into his first Merseyside Derby, after an excellent start to the campaign that has seen the Toffees lose just once in their opening 11 Premier League games.

Currently six in the EPL after five wins, five draws and just the solitary defeat, Martinez is laying down impressive foundations in order to re-build the club with his possession-based philosophy.

Everton have covered the spread just 27.3% of the time

After such a good start bettors could be forgiven for expecting Everton to have performed well against the handicap. However somewhat surprisingly the Toffees have covered the spread just 27.3% of the time – the joint second worst in the Pinnacle Sports’ handicap table.

Everton are historically strong at home – winning 63% of their home games last season – and this season is no different with three wins and two draws.  On the handicap they have covered just once at home this season, while last year the covered in 42% of games.

Interestingly, they pushed in 21% of games last season, and have already pushed twice at home this season (40%). Is this a sign that the bookmakers have a good judge on Everton’s relative strength?

How do Liverpool perform on the road against the handicap?

Liverpool (2.590*) responded in positive fashion after losing 2-0 to Arsenal by beating Fulham 4-0 at Anfield last time out.

The Reds have made a flying start to the season and sit second just two-points behind leaders Arsenal. However, such is the competitiveness towards the top of the EPL, a defeat to Everton would see their rivals would go level on points.

Liverpool’s start has been helped by their potent strike-force of Luis Suarez (8) and Daniel Sturridge (8) who have scored 16 goals between them. But has this free scoring form helped Liverpool against the handicap?

Despite winning 63% of EPL games this season the Reds have covered in 45.4% of games and sit mid-table on the Pinnacle Sports’ handicap league.

Liverpool struggled on the road last season wining just seven games, but despite this covered the handicap in 47.3% of away games. This season in their five games away from Anfield they have covered two and failed three times.

Merseyside Derby: Head-to-Head

Everton have struggled recently in the Merseyside Derby winning three, losing six and drawing one of the last ten games at Goodison Park.

The handicap form at Goodison mirrors the results with Everton covering just 30% and Liverpool 60% with one push.

By taking a closer look at the handicaps for these previous ten encounters it highlights Everton have never been favourites, while five of the games, including the last three, have been set at a 0 Handicap. Everton are at 2.100* to cover the handicap, with Liverpool at 1.847*.

With the Merseyside Derby handicap set at 0 goals for the fourth consecutive year at Goodison it highlights that the bookmakers believe the strength of the two teams are equal at Goodison once more, its up to bettors to decide whether they agree or disagree.

Click here to see the latest Merseyside Derby odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

среда, 13 ноября 2013 г.

Is there a profit to be made in the Championship?

Is there a profit to be made in the Championship?

By Charlie Rowing Nov 13, 2013

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The Championship may not have the glamour and profile of the Premier League, but for a soccer bettor the second tier in England offers a great potential opportunity to make a profit. Read on to learn more about Championship soccer betting at Pinnacle Sports.

Team parity: Opportunity to make a Championship profit

The Championship is regarded as a tough league because of its competitive nature created due to the 24 teams’ relative parity. The phrase ‘anybody can beat anybody’ is often banded about in the Championship.

Bettors should be interested to see if this statement has merit. We looked at the data for the 2012/13 Championship season to see how often underdogs prevailed over the favourites.

Interestingly if you had bet 10 on the underdog to win each game in the Championship last season, you would have made a profit of 786.50.

Despite being relegated by one-point, Peterborough were the most successful -13 wins – team as underdogs last season. In addition Watford upset the odds on 12 occasions, while Barnsley, Charlton, Huddersfield and Ipswich all contributed 11 wins each as outsiders.

Another point highlighting the strength of the teams in the Championship is the performance of the teams relegated from the Premier League the season before. Over the past five seasons those who have been relegated have averaged a position of 8th the following year. Four of the 15 teams have gained promotion at the first attempt. Interestingly, only six teams (including the four) have ever been back to the Premier League since their relegation, while Wolves suffered back-to-back relegations last season.

Because the relative strength of each team is so similar, there is an opportunity to make a profit in Championship betting by conducting extensive research rather than simply backing the favourite. However, as the data sample is small it is advisable to conduct research over five seasons to eradicate any results that may have skewed the data.

Championship format

The Championship is renowned for its excitement as 24 teams compete for the ultimate prize of promotion to the Premier League, which can be worth as much as 90 million.

At the end of the 46-game season the top two teams are automatically promoted, while the teams finishing between third and sixth qualify for the playoffs, and the bottom three are relegated to League 1.

The Championship Playoffs create additional anticipation at the end of the season as the four teams compete in two-legged semi finals. The winners then compete at Wembley in the final, with the victor gaining promotion to the Premier League.

How to bet on the Championship

There are a number of ways to bet on the Championship with Pinnacle Sports. Bettors have the opportunity to mix up their bets with a variety of different betting formats such as:

1×2 Championship Betting

This is the most common bet type. You simply bet on whether a team will win, lose or draw a match.

For example, imagine these odds are for a Championship match between QPR (1.990) and Brighton (4.100) with the draw at 3.570.

If QPR won the match and you staked 10 on them to win, you would have won 19.90– although that would include your initial 10 stake. Therefore your profit would be 9.90. If QPR had been beaten or drew, you would have won nothing and lost your initial 10 stake.

Handicap Championship Betting

Handicaps are useful when one team is heavily favoured over the other, as you can bet on who will win a match, with a set number of goals taken off the favourite’s score.

Let’s say the handicap for QPR is -0.5 goals (1.990) and Brighton is +0.5 goals (1.962). If the game ended 1-0 to QPR, then a bet on them would win as 1-0 covers the -0.5 handicap.

If the result was a draw, or a loss for QPR then a bet on Brighton would win as they would cover their +0.5 handicap.

Totals Championship Betting

The Totals market sees the bettor predict whether the total number of goals for a match will be over or under a set amount.

Imagine the total goal mark for QPR vs. Brighton is set at Over 2 and 2.5 goals (1.877) and Under 2 and 2.5 goals (2.020).

If you bet 10 on the game to be Over 2 and 2.5 goals – and the result was 2-1 (a total of three goals) you would have a return of 18.77 (8.77 profit), while you would have won nothing if you had bet on the goals total to be Under 2 and 2.5.

Click here to see the latest Championship odds.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.