Formula One 2013: How the Betfair markets have responded to testing

Fernando Alonso is James' pick to win the title

After weeks of testing James Frankland revisits the Betfair markets ahead of the new Formula One Season that starts in Melbourne this weekend...

After 12 days of testing and having completed a shade under 50,000km on the track, we are still no closer to knowing the competitive order ahead of the first Grand Prix of the 2013 season.

Part of that is by design, with the teams notoriously secretive about their true pace ahead of the season opener. Ask any driver how it's going and the usual lines will come out - "the early signs are positive", "we've made a good step", or "it's still to early to tell".

Rather than going for all-out laptimes, teams spent testing focusing on system checks and getting the cars dialled in to the new, softer Pirelli tyres - the careful management of which will prove crucial in gaining victory this season. There is no way to tell the fuel load each squad is running either, making direct laptime comparisons meaningless.

All this uncertainty has translated across into the odds in the markets for Driver's Championship Winner, Top Three Finish, and Constructor's Championship, with most driver and team odds lengthening slightly since testing began.

Driver's Championship

Sebastian Vettel - before testing 2.6413/8 - after testing 2.8615/8
Fernando Alonso - 4.3100/30 - 4.77/2
Jenson Button - 9.08/1 - 8.88/1
Lewis Hamilton - 14.5n/a - 10.5n/a
Kimi Raikkonen - 16.015/1 - 13.5n/a

The lead drivers for Red Bull (Vettel), Ferrari (Alonso) and McLaren (Button) remain those with the shortest odds of all, reflecting the view that the champion is expected to come from one of these three men, with the leading candidates the three-time defending champion Vettel, challenged by 2010 and 2012 runner-up Alonso. 2009 champion and 2011 runner-up Button is the least fancied of the three, this perhaps reflecting comments made during testing that McLaren have yet to fully understand the new MP4-28.

If you're looking for a bet to place right now, I would go with Alonso. The Ferrari F138, Fernando's chariot for the coming season, appears to have banished some of its predecessor's faults while building on its strengths, and Alonso himself feels he'll be stronger this season. Given he only missed out on last year's crown by a mere three points in a car that was rarely a match for Red Bull or McLaren, this could finally be his year with the Scuderia.

Driver's Championship Top Three

Vettel - before testing 1.251/4 - after testing 1.42/5
Alonso - 1.330/100 - 1.75/7
Button - 2.35/4 - 2.77/4
Hamilton - 2.77/4 - 3.412/5
Raikkonen - 2.56/4 - 3.052/1

Again the leading trio's odds have all lengthened slightly, but I am a bit surprised to see Hamilton at 3.412/5 in this market. The Briton has been rejuvenated by his move to Mercedes and while early talk was squarely aimed at playing down expectations of a title tilt, there is confidence amongst the Brackley-based squad that the new W04 can win this season.

Additionally, Button and Vettel have earmarked Mercedes as 'ones to watch' during this campaign. Both Hamilton and Nico Rosberg topped the timesheets in testing and also showed impressive reliability with over 5,200km completed in pre-season, so I think Lewis has a good shout of being near the top of the three come season's end.

Constructor's Championship

Red Bull - before testing - 1.824/5 - after testing 2.021/1
Ferrari - 4.03/1 - 4.94/1
McLaren - 4.03/1 - 5.14/1
Lotus - 10.09/1 - 17.016/1
Mercedes - 13.5n/a - 15.014/1

As triple world champions Red Bull naturally start as clear favourites to retain the title, and stand an excellent chance of doing so. The fortunes of the team are obviously dependent on their drivers, and only three times in the last 20 years has a team won the Constructor's Championship without one of their drivers taking the Driver's Championship.

I went with Alonso to win this year so I'm also backing Ferrari to end their four-season drought and return the title to Maranello. At 4.94/1 they're also a better value bet than Red Bull but, as ever, we won't know the true picture until qualifying in Melbourne, taking place in the early hours of next Sunday morning. I'll be up... and I can't wait.