The Punter's De-Brief: Joy for Jamieson

Scott Jamieson with the Nelson Mandela Championship trophy

It's been a good week for our man, with Charl Schwartzel making all in Thailand and two pre-event picks trading short in South Africa. There were several lessons learnt on a busy days trading yesterday. Read his account here...

Given that few will have cared that Kenny Perry and Sean O'Hair won the Franklin Templeton Shootout and that the other two events were over at halfway, one of them quite literally, the big story in the world of golf last week was 53 year-old Peter (aptly named) Senior's win at the Australian Open. It was the second time he'd won his national open - the first time was in 1989!

My Bets
I'd concentrated my efforts on the two events screened live on Sky, the Asian Tour's Thailand Golf Championship, won easily by Charl Schwartzel - my sole pre-event selection, and the first event on the 2013 European Tour schedule, the Nelson Mandela Championship in South Africa, an event reduced to just 36 holes because of a waterlogged course and won by Scott Jamieson, after a three-man playoff. It was an odd week in many ways, and in the end, I somehow won less money on Schwartzel's win than I did on Jamieson's!

As mentioned in the In-Play Blog, Schwartzel's record with a halfway lead wasn't fantastic -having led or co-led at halfway ten times, he'd only won twice, so I layed some of my wager back but with the benefit of hindsight I was too cautious. He had a bigger lead than he'd had before and he was able to coast home easily. I couldn't grumble too much though, all I'd affectively done was reduced a 7.26/1 winner down to around 5.85/1.

After two days without play at Royal Durban Golf Course, when I went to bed on Friday night, I had hoped for an abandonment of the Nelson Mandela Championship. I'd already assured a profitable outcome in Thailand and I was quite hoping to watch the Manchester derby uninterrupted but as it transpired, I'm chuffed it went ahead. The decision to make it a 36-hole tournament with no redraw was far from ideal and it was something of a lottery but luckily it went my way.

Tim Clark, backed before the off at 21.020/1, led after round one and traded as short as 1.51/2 in-running yesterday and another of my pre-event picks, Steve Webster, backed an average of 160.0159/1, made the play-off, so I was able to lay him off at 2.1011/10. I made many, many trades yesterday and by the time Webster made a mess off his tee-shot on the second extra hole, it mattered not.

I was lucky to have a couple of pre-event picks in-contention but even if they hadn't have been, I'm confident I'd have still made a profit. The fluctuations in price on the three that made the playoff were incredible and there were definitely a few confused punters playing. The big moment for me was when Eduardo de la Riva bogeyed the last hole in regulation. I'd already layed back some of my Clark wager at 3.55/2 and I'd layed the Spaniard modestly too, at 2.427/5 as he played the final hole. As it transpired a par would have won him the event but I felt at the time, even if he had pared the last, given that all the afternoon starters had yet to start (including Cark) that 2.427/5 was very short. Incredibly, even after his bogey was posted to the Sunshine Tour website people were still trying to back him at a price far shorter than Webster and Jamieson were trading at.

From there I was able to trade all three in the clubhouse on -7 to build up some nice positions and as Clark made his move I layed plenty back on him too. Once he'd reached -7, with still eight holes to play, he traded odds-on and when he hit it to about ten feet on the par 3 13th a big lump went up at 1.51/2. I assumed someone was ahead of the game and that he'd made the putt, so didn't avail myself of any but I wish I had. He hit an awful weak dribble of a putt and after that he never really gave himself another opportunity to break par. And when he double-bogeyed the 17th his chance was gone.

What have we learnt this week?
Whether we'll get a scenario like the one in South Africa again in the foreseeable future is doubtful but given the opportunities yesterday's event produced I won't be complaining if we do. Four things stuck out and three of them can be used every week anyway.

Firstly, all three play-off protagonists had played in the morning - a huge advantage. It was so much easier to make a score when you had no idea whether it was good enough or not. Clark had led after round one on -5, yet nobody could better -7 after round two, in almost identical conditions. A player of Clark's calibre should have easily passed that score, especially having reached it after ten holes but it just goes to show what pressure can do and if we get a scenario like this again, I'll be siding with the morning starters on day two. And that leads me to point two...

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush and a reasonable score in the clubhouse is worth more than a probable one on the course. Clark traded short as it was assumed he'd overcome the modest target set but despite all his experience, nerves got to him and he couldn't manage it. The market repeatedly favours those that have it to do over those that have already done it and yesterday was just another example.

Thirdly, please make sure you use alternative scoreboards to the European Tour website's one if you're trading in-running. For South African events, the Sunshine Tour website's one is excellent and you can set it to update every minute. A small tip maybe but it gave me a massive edge yesterday when de la Riva bogeyed the last.

If you're going to bet in-running, do your homework and get to know the course as best you can. The fact that I'd read this course guide by Durbanite Keith Horne was a big plus and it was one of the reasons I layed de la Riva before he played the final hole.

According to my Twitter feed, Fairytale of New York has had an airing on the radio and Chris Rea has apparently set off, so it must be nearly Christmas but we do have one more week of golf to enjoy. Paul Krishnamurty will no doubt be along with his thoughts on the Australian PGA championship and I'll concentrate on the week's other two events -the Iskandar Johor Open, the final event on the Asian Tour, and the Alfred Dunhill Championship from stunning leopard Creek. I'll be back tomorrow with previews for each.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter