Premier League Stats: 'Top of the table' Stoke the value to beat Everton

Stoke are unbeaten in 14 on home soil

Stoke are top of Andrew Atherley's 'best of the rest' table, so add this to the Potters tremendous home record and you have a decent value bet this weekend...

Stoke City fans, for all the raucous support that has driven the progress made under Tony Pulis, rarely have the opportunity to sing "we are top of the league" but in one significant respect they are the best in the Premier League this season.

This week I've drawn up a 'best of the rest' table - a ranking that excludes the big six and counts only the results of the other 14 Premier League clubs in matches against each other. In terms of both overall points (20) and points per game (1.82), Stoke come out on top.

Next best on points per game (probably the best gauge) are West Ham, followed by West Brom, Fulham, Everton and Swansea.

To a large extent, that ranking irons out the kinks in form and identifies the six teams who are the most solid outside the big six. And, looking ahead to the weekend, a couple of them stand out as potential bets.

The first is Stoke, even though they face a similar side in Everton. The odds make all the difference, with Stoke underrated as outsiders for the win at 3.259/4. Even more attractive, given their low defeat rate, is Stoke on the Asian handicap off scratch at around 2.26/5.

Many pundits predicted difficulty for Stoke this season and their slow start appeared to confirm that view, but with hindsight it was only their draw tendency (rarely a bad trait) that led to their early low position.

That gave them a strong platform, which has been built on by four wins in an unbeaten six-match run, and Stoke have lost only one out of 11 against non-big-six sides.

Most significantly, Stoke's record at the Britannia is back to its traditional strength. Pulis's team have won four and drawn one of their five games at home to teams from outside the big six this season (as well as drawing with Manchester City and Arsenal from the big six). Their last home defeat by a team from outside the big six was against Sunderland on February 4 and it is probably no coincidence that they were still involved in the Europa League at the time.

Since exiting that competition, Stoke's home record is seven wins and three draws against non-big-six teams (and no defeat in 14 overall) - a run that includes a 1-1 against Everton in May.

Another close game is in prospect, but at the odds Stoke look decent value.

A solid record against the bulk of the Premier League is not always reflected in the overall table and another case in point are Fulham, who had hit a rocky patch before Monday's 2-1 home win over Newcastle and dropped to 13th overall, but that was partly a consequence of three of their previous five games being against big-six teams.

One indicator of Fulham's solidity is their low defeat rate against teams from outside the big six - just seven losses from 23 games in 2012 (30%) - and they look a good bet on Saturday's trip to QPR at 3.02/1 for the win or 2.1211/10 off scratch on the Asian handicap.

QPR are bottom of the 'best of the rest' standings, just as they are in the overall table, and are unreliable favourites as they seek a first win in their 17th match of the league campaign. They will win eventually, but Fulham's form in this type of contest is good enough to indicate they can get a point at least.

Like Stoke, Fulham's solid record of few defeats in this type of match-up makes them a decent bet at odds-against on the Asian handicap.

Recommended Bets

Stoke off 0 on Asian Handicap v Everton at 2.26/5
Fulham off 0 on Asian Handicap v QPR at 2.1211/10