вторник, 11 декабря 2012 г.

Greyhounds Betting: Planning for the Essex Vase?

Romford is the place to be on Wednesday

Darrell Williams selects the best bets ahead of the big race at Romford this Wednesday... 

21:45 Essex Vase
 
T1 Westmead Maldini

Defending champion (four lengths all the way winner from a tricky trap five draw last year) having also been short-headed in the 2011 Champion Stakes (also reached the semi-final this season). Lacks the early speed of most of his rivals but will appreciate the switch to trap one (two wins and three seconds from five tries over the CD) and can stay on for minor honours.

T2 Brave The Times

One of two unbeaten finalists and could hardly be in beaten form having won eight of his last ten starts and  five of his last six over this 575m trip. Inconsistency at the traps a big concern, but can 'ping' as he showed in the first round, which given his current sequence makes him possibly a shade over-priced.

T3 Smiler Jack

Wide-margin winner of a more competitive Champion Stakes from a less suitable trap one draw and comes here on a roll having won his last five races all over this CD. Has remarkably finished in the first two in his last 12 races over this trip (winning nine times) with a four from four record when drawn trap three. Obvious chance provided he can clear trap two.

T4 Star Cash Simon

In a race jammed full of course specialists has a mountain to climb having yet to win here from five starts, although did record a 'PB' in his semi-final but with just one win in his last 13 starts is extremely hard to make a case for.

T5 Mountjoy Orion

Wins her share over this trip (six from 21 this year) but has been done no favours by the draw having not previously run from trap five (although is two from six over CD when drawn trap four). Needs a 'flyer' to hold any realistic chance.

T6 Planning

Has improved leaps and bounds for the step up to six bends and is getting better with each start. Unbeaten in this event (has won his two races by a combined 7 lengths) and is three from three when drawn trap six over the CD. Sole wide runner with the early pace to dominate and a major player.

Verdict:

A race crammed full of course specialists but one which looks set to be dominated by Champion Stakes winner Smiler Jack and the rapidly improving Planning. Chris Mosdall's Smiler Jack has a record to die for over this CD and is ideally suited by a middle draw. He will need to clear Brave The Times but provided he does, is unlikely to be too far away. In Planning he meets a rival who is improving with every race he has over this trip, and  more importantly one who looks set to enjoy a clear passage on the outside (neighbour Mountjoy Orion's railing tendencies can only help his cause) and therefore has to be the selection. Westmead Maldini's proven stamina is likely to bring him into the mix for minor honours. 
 
19:40 Hurdles

Millwards Mick is only a raw novice but could hardly have been any more impressive in a very fast debut win last week and rates a strong pick to repeat the feat. Billis Renegade has won 12 races this year and will be ready to step in should the selection fail to perform.

20:00 Maiden Stayers

A hot affair for maidens but one which ex-Irish Ardkill Star - runner-up in the Tote Gold Collar at Harolds Cross - can take in his stride after a big debut win at Hove last week. Henlow Gold Cup winner Westmead Bertie is preferred to Bansha Mo, who has not been round here before.

20:15 Standard

Puppy Cup winner Glanmire Lad, not out of the first two in nine races here, is hard to oppose given his early speed especially as Nans Turbo is likely to cut to the inside. Mountjoy Hawk offers an obvious forecast pick from his favourite trap six berth.

20:35 Standard

Prolific winner Ayamzaman will prove popular but is often worth opposing next time after a defeat and better value can be had with Super Paws winner Millwards Matt who reserves his best races here for 'trap six days'. Droopys Elsie is improving and is not out of this either.

20:50 925m Marathon

Powerfast Pigeon hasn't won in 12 races but won well over the CD back in January and is well drawn here inside middle moving Pony Bride. Aero Rebel has solid form here over six and eight bends.

21:10 Stayers

Essex Vase semi-finalist Lenson Ginger doesn't win too many but should appreciate the drop in class and might be worth chancing. King Lauchlan has form over further but needs to start on terms. Proper Cat will find this company far tougher. 

21:25 750m Marathon

Express Trend has an excellent record here over both six and eight bends and will not be inconvenienced by a middle draw. Pantone Ava is a worthy alternative.

Recommended Bets
Glanmire Lad 20:15
Millwards Mick 19:40 
Ardkill Star 20:00
Planning 21:45
Millwards Matt 20:35
Express Trend 21:25

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