Australian PGA Championship Tips: Coolum king O'Hern deserves another chance

Nobody has a more consistent recent PGA record than Nick O'Hern

In this final leg of the Australian triple-crown, Paul Krishnamurty perseveres with his longstanding argument that studying the numbers at these events presents an obvious route to profit...

I must start with an appeal to the golfing gods, whether that be tour bosses, sponsors or particularly TV schedulers. Please, please do whatever it takes to get the Australian triple-crown back on live UK TV, and spare us the brainache associated with following online leaderboards.

In an ideal world, tournaments like the Australian Open would be part of a world tour, or at least an extension of the Race to Dubai, attracting the world's best. These are some of the best courses in the world, ideal for championship golf and offering much greater entertainment than most. Last weekend's high winds, penal scoring and fast-changing leaderboard were an in-play golf punter's dream. With all due respect to Peter Senior, Brendan Jones and Kieran Pratt, it would surely be better to see Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson getting battered by 50mph winds.

The upshot of all that drama was a superb, historic win for 53 year-old Senior, proving once again that age needn't be a handicap on a moderate-length course. Although Senior was a pre-tournament 180.0179/1 chance, this wasn't such a great shock as he's rarely far off the pace in his homeland. Indeed, I tipped him with some success in the previous Aussie event. 

At just 30.029/1 for this week's PGA Championship, however, there are no secrets about the veteran, especially because Senior has already won the PGA twice at Coolum this century, most recently in 2010. Winning back-to-back seems like a huge ask, especially for someone of his age, but three others have completed the Open/PGA double this century - Peter Lonard, Robert Allenby and last year, Greg Chalmers. Without detracting from Senior's case, though, it rarely makes good betting sense to back a player at a sixth of the previous week's odds.

I'm also prepared to ignore favourite John Senden on price grounds, despite a relentlessly consistent record that includes six top-tens on his last seven trips to Coolum. Senden has done this column many favours over the years and is, at last, afforded proper market respect. The problem is a terrible win ratio and a poor front-running temperament, which we saw to costly effect at The Lakes. Moreover, Senden's swing completely failed to cope with Sunday's conditions, and he may need a week or two to get it back.

After a series of frustrating near-misses, particularly Senden dropping out of the top-ten, my portfolio at the Open yielded a small loss, but I'm determined to persevere with a tried and trusted long-term strategy and in particular the main selection.

Despite failing to feature in contention at any stage and a final-hole bogey, Nick O'Hern registered his 16th straight top-25 in Australia, 12 of which have been top-tens including nine top-fives. Take away a ruinous triple-bogey in the final few seconds before the course was deemed unplayable, and he would have finished third. This Coolum venue must be Nick's favourite, as the scene of his only two victories and where he's finished at least sixth on six of his last seven visits.

In fact, no player, tournament or venue better proves the argument that place betting in Aussie events is a predictable goldmine. Coolum has hosted the event for 11 years now, producing several multiple winners and almost wholly predictable leaderboards. Just as the likes of O'Hern always contend, several other similar standard players like Richard Green and Brett Rumford have never done so here.

The remaining picks are therefore selected, with confidence, in the markets that best suit their profile. So, while I have no idea about Rory Sabbatini's wellbeing or attitude, he is just too classy at this level to ignore at around 30.029/1. On his sole previous appearance at this course and in this country, Rory held the final round lead before finishing tenth. 

Likewise, 34.033/1 is a big price about last week's runner-up Brendan Jones on recent form, even if his lack of course form reduces the incentive for place bets at short odds. Brendan must have been confident of at least a play-off on Sunday when posting a -3 clubhouse lead, but can take plenty of solace from another payday following fourth in the Dunlop Phoenix.

Expect to see a much improved showing from Geoff Ogilvy, for whom the weekend wind was wholly unsuitable. The best of these on the world stage, this former US Open champion won at Coolum in 2008 and was runner-up two years later. 

Apart from O'Hern, the biggest stake is reserved for non-winner Matt Goggin in both place markets. He's twice been runner-up here and will doubtless find a way of getting beaten again, but is highly likely to feature as he did last weekend before a poor finish.

As an experienced, regular contender at this level, who showed up well in tenth place at The Lakes, Rod Pampling fits a very similar profile. Rod's last eight visits to Coolum yielded seven top-15 finishes, including five top-nines.

Finally, Michael Hendry maintained his solid progress at The Lakes and is hopelessly overpriced at 6.25/1 to register a sixth top-ten in seven starts. As with the other picks, the numbers speak for themselves.

Outright

Back Geoff Ogilvy 6u @ 12.011/1 
Back Nick O'Hern 4u @ 26.025/1
Back Rory Sabbatini 2u @ 30.029/1
Back Brendan Jones 2u @ 34.033/1

Top-five finish

Back Nick O'Hern 5u @ 6.05/1
Back Matt Goggin 3u @ 8.07/1

Top-ten finish

Back Nick O'Hern 10u @ 3.02/1
Back Matt Goggin 7u @ 4.03/1
Back Rod Pampling 6u @ 4.77/2
Back Michael Hendry 5u @ 6.25/1