Against All Odds: Udinese to produce goals again

How many are you going to score tonight, Antonio?

Udinese travel to Sampdoria for some Serie A action this evening and while the Betfair market is predicting few goals, Paul Robinson has spotted that the away side's matches are averaging over three per game.

Our lay of unders in the West Ham match was landed by half time yesterday which completed the perfect week and gave us eight winners from our last nine selections.

Sampdoria have steadied the ship in recent weeks, picking up seven points from their last three fixtures after a run of nine without a win, including seven straight defeats. They had begun life back in the top flight quite brightly and it's their early season form that has enabled them to still be in a mid-table position.

Ciro Ferrara's sides matches are averaging 2.67 goals so far this campaign, with six of their last nine going over 2.5, and two of their last three doing so at home. They have managed just a single clean sheet at Stadio Luigi Ferraris all season and that came against the struggling, Bologna.

Udinese haven't been able to hit the heights of the last couple of years and they find themselves down in 11th place with 19 points from their opening 15 fixtures. Tonight is their game in hand though and a victory would take them up to eighth.

The problem for Francesco Guidolin's side is that they've conceded far too many goals. They have the seventh worst defensive record in the division and it's only the fact that they've netted 22 themselves that is saving them. The Little Zebra's fixtures have been averaging 3.07 goals per 90 minutes and six of their eight away games have had three or more so far this term.

The statistics lean towards goals here, yet under 2.5 is trading as low as 1.768/11. That is just far too short and I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 Goals in Sampdoria v Udinese @ 1.768/11

2012 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 283 pts
Returned: 294.95 pts
P/L + 11.95 pts