Will Greenwood: England can stake their claim by beating Aussies

Will's backing Ashton to score

Will Greenwood has beaten Australia at Twickenham, in their own backyard and on the biggest stage of all. Which is precisely why the Betfair Ambassador knows that England are in for a stern test on Saturday...  

Last week, I backed Fiji to lose to England by less than 19.5 points, so was I impressed with the Red Rose's rout? Yes and no. England should be able to thump the Pacific islanders at Twickenham so, as I said in my preview, the proof of their progress under Stuart Lancaster will come in their next three matches. 

England were tentative early on. There were bad calls and loose passes but, once they got Danny Care back from the sin bin, they found their rhythm and I admired some of the attacking play, especially when Alex Goode came in to the line. In the second-half, the match resembled a semi-opposed training session.

Now things get serious. Australia are battered and bruised following their mauling in Paris but take it from somebody who has both defeated and lost to them: the Wallabies never know when they are beaten. Trying to smash them is like attempting to pin jelly to a wall, so I don't think we'll see as big a home victory as the markets, which have England at 1.392/5, anticipate.

David Pocock's injury is a big blow to for the visitors, of course, but it shouldn't be as significant as some people expect. The Wallabies will miss their talisman's aura and his absence will give England one less thing to worry about. They will feel emboldened at the breakdown but Michael Hooper is an excellent replacement.

Digby Ioane's return is a boost for Australia and the battle between him and Chris Ashton, who comes back in for the hosts, should be a belter. I'm a massive fan of the England winger. He loves playing against the Aussies and the fact that he hasn't scored for nine internationals doesn't put me off backing him to cross the whitewash here. 

You've got to consider the context of that scoreless run, the uncertainty Ashton had in his club career as he made the move from Northampton to Saracens, not forgetting the changes to the international coaching set-up too. All these factors contribute. Charlie Sharples ran in two last weekend, I was pleased for him and will be if he gets in this time too, but tries against big teams are what count. Ashton remains England's biggest threat. Ioane might think the Sarries man is pretty, but I can certainly confirm that he possesses a very acute rugby brain.

In front of over 80,000 fans at Twickenham, England must play like favourites and boss this contest from the off. I'm hoping to see them play with increased intensity and composure in the early exchanges. No longer underdogs, it's time for Lancaster's team to stake their claim for a place among the big dogs of world rugby.

Recommended Bets
Back England to win by under 12.5 points @ 2.6213/8
Back England/England @ 1.814/5

Last weekend threw up some lively scorelines so I've selected a suite of wagers on the handicap line for some of the other big fixtures. 

Argentina were quality against the Welsh and, after beating Australia, France are probably set to take a nosedive. I'll back the Pumas +9.5.

Can a Dan Carter-less New Zealand cover 30.5 points against Italy? On a cold, windy afternoon in Rome, I reckon the Azzurri can keep things respectable, so I'll back Italy +30.5.

Wales are struggling in the absence of their brilliant head coach and, while they will win on Saturday, I think Samao are worth backing +10.5.

Finally, if Scotland can't beat South Africa with a headstart of 22.5 points, then Andy Robinson's men should give up. Take the Scots +22.5.